Bravo Blog: 2012 Preview

I'm a few days late with my preseason Braves thoughts, but here goes anyway. This year's Braves team has plenty to like and plenty to be concerned about.

I'll start with the positives. The great arms at the back of the bullpen all return. Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters and Erik O'Flaherty were a dominant trio in 2011. As they did a year ago, they should help the Braves win some close games by shutting down teams late.

All-Star catcher Brian McCann is always a positive, and Martin Prado is back healthy. Hopefully Dan Uggla can hit more like he did in August than he did the rest of the season. Uggla struggled for the entire first half in 2011, but started hitting like an MVP in July and August before fading in September.

Speaking of fading in September, let's move on to the reason why I am not too optimistic about the 2012 Braves: they brought back essentially the exact same team that collapsed in 2011. They are basically hoping the same team can fix a few things and finish the deal this year. That concerns me.

Atlanta didn't add any offense in the offseason,
which means they need Heyward to rebound.

The Braves struggled to score runs all year, and they really did nothing this offseason to fix that. They are basically hoping that Jason Heyward can hit like he did in 2010 to ignite the offense. Other than that, Frank Wren is just banking that Chipper Jones can stay healthy enough to play 120 or more games while Martin Prado and Dan Uggla overcome the struggles that hindered them last year. That's being pretty optimistic if you ask me.

The Braves starting rotation is loaded with both talent and question marks. If Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson and Brandon Beachy all stay healthy the entire year, the Braves will be pretty competitive. Jurrjens and Hanson have struggled a lot with injuries, though. Both missed most of September last year as Atlanta was collapsing. The Braves need those guys to make it through September and into October. Again, that's optimistic.

The bigger concern with the Braves rotation, however, is its inability to go deep into games. Jurrjens went seven or more innings nine times in 23 starts in 2011, with just two of those coming after June. Hanson went seven or more innings seven times in 22 starts. That wears out the bullpen over the course of 162 games. Last year, Kimbrel blew three critical saves in September. Jonny Venters was unhittable all year but looked human in September. They were gassed.

Kimbrel and Venters are great, but they can't pitch every day.

Derek Lowe rarely made it past the sixth inning in 2011, and the Braves traded him to make room for top prospect Mike Minor. That was addition by subtraction, but can the rookie eat some innings that Lowe couldn't to save some bullpen innings? That may be asking a lot, but we'll see.

Meanwhile, teams like the Phillies and Rangers have several guys who take their games past the seventh inning almost every time out. That's why they are strong late in the year. Their bullpens aren't spent.

The Marlins and Nationals are on the rise, and the Phillies are still way better than Atlanta. So, finishing fourth isn't impossible for this team. The keys will be Heyward and Uggla's production and how much the rotation can save the bullpen over the course of the year.

My expectations are low, but I'll still hope this team can stay in the hunt and pull something off in September.

Giving Calipari Credit

I've never been a big John Calipari fan. I know he can coach, but I've never been able to ignore the trail of violations and vacated Final Four appearances he's left at other schools. His biggest defenders will say he's never been officially accused of anything, and they're right. There sure is a lot of smoke there, however, even though I have yet to see the fire. To his credit, Calipari has kept his distance from the smoke and never gotten burned.

Love him or hate him, you can't deny that John Calipari
has a system that works and now won him a title.

He had never won a title until Monday night. Now, he has one. All I can do is salute the guy, and I'm actually going to give him credit for doing it.

I don't like "one and done" guys any more than anyone else. However, the NBA has forced this situation on college basketball. Guys like Anthony Davis and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist have to go to college somewhere. So, why wouldn't they want to go to Kentucky to play for a guy who has sent several players to the NBA?

People (and I admit I'm in this group sometimes) like to hate on the Yankees and Red Sox for spending a ton of money to contend and win championships, but they aren't breaking any rules. They are just taking full advantage of the system in place. That's what Calipari is doing.

These top prospects need a place to play until they are eligible for the NBA Draft. Calipari has a system in place in Lexington that allows these guys to come in for a year, win, develop and move on to the league to make room for the next crop. Love it or hate it, that is well within the rules of the current system.

Calipari himself has said he hates the NBA's eligibility rule, but he works within the system. Sure, Calipari haters would love to say he's recruiting by shady means and won't give him credit. A.) They have no proof of that, B.) Even if he is, there is no way he's the only one, and C.) Like I've said, due to the current system, these kids have to play college ball somewhere. So, why not go to Kentucky in the one-and-done system that Calipari has perfected? It's a winning program with great fan support that will give a kid plenty of exposure to help him get to the NBA, which is where all those one-and-done players want to be.

Ideally, I'd love to see a system that allows elite high school players to go straight to the pros while college players have to stay at least two years (similar to rules for college baseball, which forces players to go to college for three years). Right now, though, the NBA has no reason to change its rule. I don't see that happening any time soon. So, college basketball fans should get used to the way things are.

I'm still not a Kentucky or Calipari fan, but I do at least give him credit for winning this championship. However he did it, he assembled an amazing team that was exciting to watch. They deserved that title. The way Cal keeps shuffling top talent in and out of Lexington, it might not be his last.