Sunday, December 30, 2012

The Chiefs QB Dilemma

As I sit here watching the Kansas City Chiefs' 2012 season mercifully come to an end, I have a hard to imagining 2013 being a whole lot better. The team was embarrassing and will likely make changes to the coaching staff and hopefully the front office, but this team isn't going to make any significant leap without an upgrade at quarterback.

The problem, of course, is that there aren't any significant upgrades at quarterback available. The Chiefs picked the wrong year to be horrible. Last year, there was a great draft class, and Peyton Manning was out there. Now? It's slim pickin's.

Among free agents, there's Joe Flacco, who is very likely to stay in Baltimore you would think. If for some reason he doesn't, the Chiefs would have to go after him. For all of his flaws, he's way better than anyone in KC right now.

After that on the free agent list? Jason Campbell, Matt Moore, Drew Stanton, Kellen Clemens, and Chase Daniel. Yuck. I know Daniel has fans in KC after his Mizzou days, so maybe fans would like to see him brought in as a backup. But there are no guys in that group who are definitely upgrades from Matt Cassel.

Beyond that, the free agent list gets hilarious: Matt Leinart, Byron Leftwich, David Carr, Tyler Thigpen, Charlie Batch, Rex Grossman, Tarvaris Jackson, and... Vince Young. Barf.

So, what about trades? Some of these guys might just get released, but their teams may try to trade them first.

Benched in San Francisco, Alex Smith might actually
be the best quarterback available in a weak offseason.
Alex Smith is the first name out there. The 49ers are clearly ready to go with Colin Kaepernick for the future. Barring a career-ending injury to Kaepernick in the playoffs, the 49ers are likely to shop Smith. I've spoken before about how I thought Smith arrived last year. He was playing well, albeit not spectacular, before losing his job this year. The obvious concern is that he would struggle to adjust to a new system, just like he did in each of his first six years in the league. The fear of regression is big with Smith, but he sadly may be the best option out there. That means someone (maybe the Jets, maybe the Cardinals) will overpay to get him. KC, though, should see what the cost is. Plus, it would continue KC's long tradition of picking up former 49ers quarterbacks over and over again.

Michael Vick has obviously worn out his welcome in Philadelphia. His contract is enormous, and any team would be foolish to trade for him and absorb that deal. If he's released and you can get him for dirt cheap, maybe you consider it. His numbers are down, and his injuries are up, though. He's not a great option anymore. Better than Cassel and Quinn, though? Probably.

Matt Flynn was in demand a year ago as a free agent.
Seattle's Matt Flynn is an interesting case. A lot of teams were interested in him last year, and Seattle won out by giving him a modest three-year, $26 million contract (only about $10 million guaranteed). That's not ridiculous money if the Chiefs (or any team) wants to absorb that contract. At the same time, it wouldn't hurt Seattle to keep him as a backup for two more years, then let him go when it's time to negotiate a new deal for Russell Wilson. The concern obviously is about how good Flynn really is. Is the fact that he lost his job after getting a free agent deal a condemnation on him or just a credit to how good Wilson is? I think the risk of acquiring Flynn would be low. If it doesn't work out, his price tag is modest and you can go hunting for another QB when there's a stronger draft class.

The Jets are going to dump Mark Sanchez. No, Chiefs. No! He may actually be worse than Cassel and Quinn.

Tim Tebow is also going to be out there. I've made my opinion clear on Tebow. Great guy, not a great QB. Certainly not worth the media circus ESPN would bring. Good luck in Jacksonville, buddy.

The only other decent QB I could possibly see being traded is Kirk Cousins, but I think Washington hangs onto him while he's cheap. They'll trade him down the line before he becomes a free agent, though (assuming Griffin continues to play like he has).

Barkley's stock has fallen, but he does have talent.
As for the draft, the Chiefs obviously have to take someone. No, there is no one who is highly rated like Griffin or Andrew Luck or even Ryan Tannehill. There are guys worth taking a chance on in the second or third rounds, though. Matt Barkley was once the golden boy at USC. Maybe he excels in the right system as a pro. Based on how other USC quarterbacks have fared in the NFL, though, don't get your hopes too high. Plus, his recent shoulder injury is another concern. Is he worth that second round pick, though? Maybe.

Geno Smith might also be worth taking if the Chiefs either trade down from number one or trade up from the that first pick in the second round. He has a big arm and could be something, but he also disappeared at times this year, especially in bad weather. He's a risk as a high first rounder in my opinion. Late first/early second? Okay, sure.

Then there are guys like Landry Jones, Mike Glennon and Tyler Wilson who could be anything. There's just no way to tell.

The bottom line, though is that the Chiefs have to clean house at quarterback and bring in three new guys somehow: trade, free agency, draft, or some combination of the three. They can't go another year with the current crop. Unfortunately, the options available aren't promising. But maybe just the slightest upgrade can make this team watchable again.

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

2012 Bowl Picks - Part Two

Happy holidays! I hope it's going better than my picks so far. Part one was released before Christmas. Now that it appears the Mayans were wrong and 2013 will indeed come, let's check out the first bowl games of the new year.

TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl
Mississippi State -2 vs Northwestern
Generally speaking, Mississippi State rolled the lesser teams in the SEC and got pounded by the good ones. Then they lost to Ole Miss in a rivalry game. Northwestern is a well-coached team that did let some key games slip away this year, or else they might be in the Rose Bowl. I have to go with the SEC team, but Northwestern will hang around.
The pick: Mississippi State 36-30

Heart of Dallas Bowl
Purdue vs Oklahoma State -16.5
Oklahoma State has a deep, talented offense. Purdue did not beat a single FBS team with a winning record. As long as OSU is motivated to play (this bowl slot has to be a disappointment for them), the Cowboys should destroy Purdue.
The pick: Oklahoma State 56-20

Capital One Bowl
#7 Georgia -10 vs #16 Nebraska
Murray and the Dawgs narrowly missed playing for it all.
They'll close out the season with a comfortable win in Orlando.
Nebraska was absolutely embarrassed by Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship game. Georgia was a play away from being in the national championship. I almost always pick SEC over Big Ten, and this is no different. Georgia's defense should make life miserable for Taylor Martinez, and Georgia should score at will. Maybe not to the extent Wisconsin did, but Georgia will score a lot.
The pick: Georgia 44-17

Outback Bowl
#10 South Carolina -5.5 vs #18 Michigan
It's another SEC-Big Ten showdown that I think grossly favors the SEC. Injuries may have kept South Carolina out of the national title picture. They're a solid team, and Michigan is very inconsistent. After dealing with a legal issue, Denard Robinson is expected to play for Michigan. But his health is uncertain as he was unable to throw the ball late in the year due to an arm problem. He can still run, though, so he'll help. South Carolina will still win easily.
The pick: South Carolina 34-21

Rose Bowl
#6 Stanford vs Wisconsin +6.5
I think this will be close because I think it will be low-scoring. The Badgers lost head coach Bret Bielema, who left for Arkansas. The players, though, may be fired up to play one time for Barry Alvarez. Stanford's defense will not let them run up the score like they did against Nebraska, however. I think this will be a tough game that Stanford will grind out in the end.
The pick: Stanford 20-17

Discover Orange Bowl
#12 Florida State -13 vs #15 Northern Illinois
Nobody thinks Northern Illinois belongs in the BCS.
They don't care. They can't wait for a shot at Florida State.
The opinion that Northern Illinois has no business being in this game has been discussed plenty. But did you know that, according to Phil Steele, Northern Illinois had the worst schedule among all 124 FBS schools? The worst. Dead freaking last. How that got them to 16th in the BCS computers is crazy. Perhaps it speaks to what a down year overall this was in college football.
The only question in this game is if Florida State is motivated to play its best. NIU certainly will. They hear the doubters and have read all the bulletin board material... well, except maybe mine. The Huskies will play like this is their BCS National Championship Game. And they should. They shouldn't apologize to anyone. There were rules in place for them to get in, and they got in. They won their league and had a better BCS number than the Big East champ. That's the way it is.
I don't think Florida State will get caught napping, though. They're not exactly at home, but they're in their home state. The 'Noles will have plenty of fans there. Florida State could probably play at 80% and still win this game by two possessions.
The pick: Florida State 49-17

AllState Sugar Bowl
#21 Louisville vs #3 Florida -14
Speaking of teams who hardly deserve to be in the BCS, Louisville may deserve it less than Northern Illinois. They won the lousy Big East and had a lower BCS ranking than NIU (the whole reason NIU is in to begin with). Even though they won't win it, Florida is a national championship-quality team. This game may be as ugly as the Orange Bowl. The "Charlie Strong vs. Florida" angle will be used to hype it up, but I think the game will get ugly quick. Louisville will not stop Florida all night.
The pick: Florida 52-21

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
#4 Oregon -9.5 vs #5 Kansas State
On the morning of November 17, it appeared that this match-up would be our national championship game. Then the Ducks and Wildcats both lost. It's still a very interesting bowl game, though. Contrasting styles: Oregon's fireworks against Bill Snyder's old school ways. The Wildcats are well coached enough to slow Oregon down the same way Stanford did. This game will be close all night, but I'll say Oregon gets a late score to cover. Too much speed.
The pick: Oregon 35-24

AT&T Cotton Bowl
#9 Texas A&M vs #11 Oklahoma +4.5
The Cotton Bowl got a great draw thanks to the BCS mess.
Texas A&M and Oklahoma should be a classic.
This is easily the best non-BCS game, and it's the third most interesting bowl game overall in my opinion (behind the Fiesta and national championship). Fun fact: with this game, Oklahoma finally passes Marquette in Cotton Bowl appearances. Marquette played in the first ever Cotton Bowl in 1937, never went back and shut down its football program in 1960. In an odd quirk, this is only the second time the storied Sooners have been. They're normally playing in a Fiesta or Orange bowl, or they have a rough year and settle for something like the Sun Bowl.
But I digress. I'm excited to see the Big 12 reunion with the Aggies, and I think it'll be a high scoring affair. Landry Jones finished the season strong, and there's every reason to believe he can hold up throw for throw with Heisman winner Johnny Manziel. I think it will be a great game, but A&M is solid. They'll pull through in a great one.
The pick: Texas A&M 33-31

BBVA Compass Bowl
Pittsburgh vs Ole Miss -3.5
I would call it an appetizer before the national championship, but this is more like the bread you keep eating because your food is taking forever. It's all that's there. Big East vs SEC? Easy.
The pick: Ole Miss 34-17

GoDaddy.com Bowl
#25 Kent State vs Arkansas State -4
If this was basketball, you'd say it was a battle of two of the top mid-majors. Kent State nearly got into the BCS before falling to Northern Illinois. Arkansas State won the Sun Belt, which actually was a decent league by its standards this year. The Red Wolves had a great year under Gus Malzahn, who is now at Auburn. They're a high scoring team, and they'll outpace Kent State. Yes, the Golden Flashes are ranked, but don't forget they lost by 33 to Kentucky.
The pick: Arkansas State 42-35

BCS National Championship
#2 Alabama vs #1 Notre Dame +9.5
The Notre Dame defense has been great, but can it stop
the SEC's dominance in the BCS era?
Despite the huge line, I've maintained since this game became a possibility that the Irish would not get blown out by anyone. I'll take the 9.5 points for sure.
Yes, Alabama is great and the SEC champions, but Notre Dame's defense will keep them in any game. The key is avoiding the big play. If Alabama breaks off a couple 50+ yard touchdown plays, it will get out of hand. If the Irish can continue their great defense in the red zone and hold Bama to field goals (like they did against Oklahoma and USC), then they have a shot. Plus, the Irish have shown a great ability to run the ball and control the clock in against tough opponents like Oklahoma and Stanford.
That said, this is Alabama's third national championship game in four years. A.J. McCarron is playing in his second. Nick Saban is a mastermind. They're the SEC champions, and the SEC has claimed six BCS titles in a row, have won 8 of the 14 BCS titles ever and are 8-0 in BCS title games. Every statistic says Alabama will win this game.
So, I won't. The Irish run the ball, play great defense, and grind out a crazy win.
The pick: Notre Dame 24-21

Going out on a limb? Sure. Why not?

Happy New Year.

Monday, December 24, 2012

Happy Holidays!

Merry Christmas! And I'd like to wish you all the very best for 2013.

2012 was a very busy and exciting year for me. So, if you missed anything, here's the quick recap (with links  to make it a very long recap, if you so choose).

The KOTV sports team: great group
The changes began back in March when I decided to leave KOTV after almost three years. The News on 6 was a great place for me, as I was uncertain if I wanted to even stay in TV until that opportunity came along. I'll always be grateful to KOTV for that chance.

I started a new job with GameDay Productions, a company in Fort Worth, TX, I had previously worked for. This time, though, I'm producing a show called Sports Stars of Tomorrow. The show used to be hosted by Pat Summerall, but we are now working with Charles Davis as we look ahead to the future. We're nationally syndicated and do stories on the nation's top amateur athletes. I produce the show, and I also get to do some reporting, which has been fun. More on that in a second.

My new home in Texas.
In May, I became a homeowner. I bought a townhouse in Keller, TX. Plenty of room for visitors.

In June, I checked an item off my bucket list by going to Ireland. It was awesome. I took lots of pictures.

When I got back, I began traveling for my job.  I got to go to Chicago, Denver, Seattle, Miami, and all over Ohio. I'll get to go to places like New York, Washington D.C., Atlanta, Philadelphia, Tampa and many others in the future. I started a fan page so you can follow my adventures if you Like (see what I did there?).

There were plenty of ups and downs along the way, but overall, 2012 was a great year for me and I'm looking forward to 2013.

Merry Christmas, and Happy New Year!

Joe McCann



Sunday, December 16, 2012

I'll Miss the Big East

Well, it finally happened. The Big East's seven Catholic schools are breaking out their own, and the great basketball conference that so many fans have known is now on its death bed. I can't speak as longingly about the Big East as Georgetown, Connecticut or St. John's fans can. Marquette has only been in the league eight years, but it's been great for Marquette. For the 33 years its been in existence, it's been great for college basketball.  I'll definitely miss watching my alma mater compete is such a deep, competitive league year in and year out.

I guess this is a collector's item now.
As the football-driven conference realignment slowly tore about the leagues we were all used to, we hoops fans speculated time and time again about ways the Big East might be saved somehow so that the great basketball league would be preserved. Ultimately, the basketball schools breaking out on their own was inevitable. It was either going to happen because they took action or because the football schools all left. As excited as I was the day Marquette joined the Big East, I'm just as relieved to see them leave it.

Now, Marquette and the other Catholic schools are no longer on pins and needles every time someone jumps leagues. First, it was Syracuse, Pittsburgh and West Virginia. Then Notre Dame. Then Rutgers. Then Louisville. It was only a matter of time before Cincinnati and Connecticut bailed as well. After a few years in the new-look cross-country Big East, who's to say that SMU or Houston or Memphis wouldn't suddenly be in demand and jump ship as well? Eventually, Marquette would have been stuck in a league with the likes of Florida Atlantic and Rice. They had to bail.

The basketball schools had no leverage on their own. Georgetown and Marquette couldn't approach a league like the Big Ten or ACC and sell itself as a great addition. United, however, the "Catholic 7," as they've been called, have a future. I'm glad to see they realized that and stuck together for the sake of preserving some sort of watchable basketball conference. I only hope they get the television deal that can help not only basketball but other sports at the schools so they can continue to compete at the levels they expect.

These guys are a big reason why Marquette's run in the
Big East has been a positive one.
I will miss the Big East, though. Again, my best memories are limited to the eight years Marquette has spent in it. While Marquette hasn't been the best team in the league, it has consistently been one of the stronger teams. Marquette has made the tournament every year as a Big East member. It's a string of success made possible by the great recruiting class of Dominic James, Jerel McNeal, and Wesley Matthews. The steady stream of leaders that followed kept the run going: Lazar Hayward, Jimmy Butler, Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder all played large roles in making sure Marquette remained a solid program. The coaches who recruited them deserve credit too: Buzz Williams, and yes, folks, Tom Crean. Give credit where it's due.

I'll miss the classic games, even the ones in which Marquette didn't play. The UConn-Syracuse six overtime game was unforgettable. It's a shame the Big East Tournament as we know it is dead. It was one of the great events in college basketball.

I'll miss the rivalries that Marquette developed in the Big East, some that extended from Conference USA. Marquette had some bitter battles with Louisville, many of which Marquette was on the wrong side of. They were great games, though. Marquette had some classic games with Pitt and was able to continue its rivalry with Notre Dame. I hope some of these games continue in non-conference form, especially the Notre Dame series. I'd even all for some sort of Big East Reunion Series. Instead of a Big East-SEC Challenge, Big East Catholic schools vs. former Big East schools that left? Catholics vs. Football? Something to think about down the road. Keep rivalries, folks. They're important.

All good things come to an end, though. The good news for Marquette fans and the fans of the other Catholic schools leaving the league is that their futures will be much more secure once they secure a television deal (which I assume is in the works or else they wouldn't have broken away). They no longer have to hold their breath foolishly hoping football schools will stay in the Big East. Now, they're in control of their own destiny as schools like Xavier, Butler, SLU, Gonzaga and others seem interested in their mission to form a strong basketball conference.

I'm optimistic for the future, but I'll always miss the Big East. And I'll always be bitter at college football for killing it.

Friday, December 14, 2012

2012 Bowl Picks - Part One

It's time for my final exam - the bowl picks. I can only hope these go as well as my championship week picks, which I crushed. I went 11-1 on winners (thanks for nothing, Nebraska) to wrap up the regular season and 8-4 against the spread. I had 99 wins in the regular season. I'm cautiously optimistic I can get to 100.

Now, it's time to figure out where these bowls are and who's playing in them... oh, and who's going to win, too. I'll include the sponsor names with the hope at least one of them sends me free stuff.

Gildan New Mexico Bowl
Nevada vs. Arizona -8.5
Rich Rod kicks off your bowl season in New Mexico.
I really like Rich Rodriguez's offense in this one. Arizona is an improving team and lost some tough games to some good teams in the Pac-12. Nevada can score, though, (37 points per game), so look for a shootout.
The pick: Arizona 45-35

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Toledo +10.5 vs. Utah State
Utah State is the better team, especially defensively. The Aggies rank eighth in the FBS in points allowed (15.4). MAC teams have a way of making games interesting, though. Toledo will hang around, but Utah State will win.
The pick: Utah State 38-35

Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl
Central Florida vs. Ball State +7.5
If it wasn't for Tulsa, UCF might be in the Liberty Bowl. UCF lost twice to Tulsa, including the Conference USA championship. See my previous comment about MAC teams, though. Ball State's only losses in conference were to the teams that battled to be in the BCS: Kent State and Northern Illinois. UCF wins a close one.
The pick: Central Florida 30-28

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
BYU vs. San Diego State +2.5
BYU has a tough defense, but it has to because its offense isn't that great. San Diego State is playing in its home stadium, Qualcomm Stadium. Sophomore quarterback Adam Dingwell has filled in nicely for injured starter Ryan Katz, and I think he'll lead the Aztecs to a win to close out the season.
The pick: San Diego State 24-21

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
East Carolina vs UL-Lafayette -5.5
The Ragin' Cajuns nearly beat Florida in the Swamp, and they went on to finish second in the Sun Belt, which wasn't a bad league this year. East Carolina only had one loss in Conference USA, but didn't play Tulsa and its one loss was to UCF. ULL is playing close to home, and I think they'll play well in front of their fans.
The pick: UL-Lafayette 38-31

Maaco Bowl Las Vegas
Washington +5.5 vs #19 Boise State
This is not the great upstart Boise State team of years past. They're a nice team from a bad conference. Washington might be the best team they've played all year. Despite getting stunned by Washington State in the season finale, Washington had some nice wins this year over Stanford and Oregon State. The Huskies also had some ugly losses to like that Apple Cup game, but I think they'll play better to wrap up their season.
The pick: Washington 27-24

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
Fresno State vs SMU +12
For the second time in four seasons, June Jones and SMU
will be in the Hawaii Bowl. They won the game in 2009.
Former Hawaii coach June Jones returns to the islands, and his SMU Mustangs are big underdog. SMU struggled this year as Texas transfer Garrett Gilbert didn't flourish as SMU had hoped. Fresno State, meanwhile, has one of the highest-scoring offenses in the FBS: 40.3 points per game, good for 12th. The Bulldogs, though, did lose to Tulsa, a team SMU upset to get bowl eligible. I think SMU will rely on Zach Line to run the ball a lot at keep the Fresno State offense on the sideline to keep it close. It won't be enough to win, though.
The pick: Fresno State 31-21

Little Caesars Bowl
Western Kentucky -5.5 vs. Central Michigan
A mediocre game here: a 7-5 Western Kentucky team that lost its coach to South Florida meeting a 6-6 MAC team. I'll just go with what the spread says. I do like Big Red, though.
The pick: Western Kentucky 29-23

Military Bowl
#24 San Jose State vs. Bowling Green +7.5
For the third time in this blog, I'm going to pick the MAC team to cover but lose. San Jose State had a great year as the Spartans went 10-2, including a narrow three-point loss to Stanford. Their coach, though, is on his way to Colorado. Mike MacIntyre will not be with his team, and I think that will have an effect. Bowling Green's defense is tough and will slow San Jose State down, but the Spartans should have enough offense to win. David Fales had a solid year at quarterback: 3,798 yards, 31 TDs and 9 picks. He'll have enough to get the Spartans the win.
The pick: San Jose State 27-24

Belk Bowl
Cincinnati -7.5 vs. Duke
I'd enjoy this more if it was basketball. Duke was 6-2 at one point, but lost four straight (Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech and Miami) to just barely be bowl eligible. As mediocre as the Big East is, Duke really doesn't have any impressive wins to make me think they'll win this one.
The pick: Cincinnati 41-27

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl
Baylor +1 vs. UCLA
This is probably the first game on the bowl slate that the average college football fan will look at and say, "Okay, I'll watch that one." I really like the way both teams showed up this. Jim Mora did a great job in his first year with the Bruins, and Baylor proved that they can keep winning after RG3. The Holiday Bowl tends to be a good game, and I think these two will deliver. I'll take Baylor winning a wild one.
The pick: Baylor 35-33

Advocare V100 Independence Bowl
Ohio +7 vs. Louisiana Tech  UL-Monroe
I'm actually interested to see ULM's Kolton Browning
try to outscore Tyler Tettleton and Ohio.
Sorry, Louisiana Tech. I feel bad for the kids there. Blame the athletic director or the bowl system or a little of both, but Louisiana Tech's players got horribly screwed out of a well-deserved bowl game.
Enter the opportunity for UL-Monroe. Of all the "lesser" bowl games, I'm actually mildly interested in this one as it features the two teams that looked like Cinderellas in September. The two quarterbacks, Ohio's Tyler Tettleton and Monroe's Kolton Browning should put on a show. I see a fun back-and-forth game that ends with a dramatic Warhawks win.
The pick: UL-Monroe 33-30

Russell Athletic Bowl
Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech -2.5
Virginia Tech had a bad year by Hokie standards. Rutgers, meanwhile, overachieved and nearly got into the BCS. I think the Scarlet Knights are disappointed to be in this game, but Virginia Tech can't be too fired up either after going 6-6. I just can't pick a Big East team.
The pick: Virginia Tech 24-21

Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas
Minnesota vs. Texas Tech -13
Easy pick for me (which makes me a bit nervous). Minnesota went 2-6 in the Big Ten and became bowl eligible thanks to wins over UNLV, New Hampshire and Western Michigan. Slow clap.
Texas Tech should be able to throw it all over the field, and it'll be a fine send off for senior quarterback Seth Doege, who has had a nice college career after battling knee injuries throughout high school.
The pick: Texas Tech 49-17

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
Rice vs. Air Force -1
This bowl season: two 6-6 teams square off. Go with the Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl.
The pick: Air Force 33-30

New Era Pinstripe Bowl
West Virginia -4 vs Syracuse
An old Big East rivalry renewed!! No? Not exciting enough?
Look for a lot of offense in this one. Both teams can score in a hurry but give up points just as quickly. West Virginia will be the second most talented offense Syracuse has seen (behind USC), and I'll pick Geno Smith to go out firing.
The pick: West Virginia 52-38

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Navy +14.5 vs. Arizona State
Navy is a huge underdog, but the option is tough to prepare for, and I think their running game will make it tough for Arizona State to blow them out. I do expect the Sun Devils to pull away and win, though.
The pick: Arizona State 34-21

Valero Alamo Bowl
#13 Oregon State -2 vs #23 Texas
It's been another frustrating year in Austin.
Overachievers against underachievers? Oregon State has had a nice year while Texas has once again fallen from its lofty preseason rankings (yet somehow remains ranked through it all). It seems crazy to say, but I think Oregon State is better coached and more fundamentally sound than Texas. I think that will be the difference in this one. Oregon State capitalizes on the Longhorns' mistakes to win.
The pick: Oregon State 28-20

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl
TCU -2.5 vs Michigan State
Michigan State has struggled to score all year, and TCU's defense only got better as the season went along. The Frogs' offense has improved as well as Trevone Boykin has settled in. The drug suspensions and injuries made for a somewhat disappointing debut season in the Big 12 for TCU, but the Frogs recovered nicely, and I think they'll close out 2012 with a solid win.
The pick: TCU 27-17

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
NC State vs Vanderbilt -6.5
In the battle of SEC vs ACC, I always have to lean SEC. Vanderbilt has to be extremely happy that James Franklin is still there after all the coaching changes over the past  few weeks. Plus, the Commodores are playing close to home.
The pick: Vanderbilt 38-24

Hyundai Sun Bowl
USC -10 vs Georgia Tech
After being a preseason pick to win it all, USC will close
out its season in the Sun Bowl, maybe with Barkley back.
Matt Barkley might return to play. Whether he does or he doesn't, USC should have enough firepower to blow past Georgia Tech.
The pick: USC 38-21

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Iowa State vs.  Tulsa (PK)
Iowa State rolled over Tulsa in the season opener 38-23, but that was Cody Green's first game with TU. Tulsa's offense is playing much better know, and the Golden Hurricane will be fired up to play in the Liberty Bowl after winning the Conference USA Championship. The Cyclones will be tough again, but I think TU closes out the season strong.
The pick: Tulsa 30-27

Chick-fil-A Bowl
#8 LSU -3.5 vs. #14 Clemson
LSU easily has the better defense and more talent overall, but the quarterback position makes me think Clemson can hang around. Tajh Boyd and wide receiver Sammy Watkins can be trouble for any defense. Meanwhile, LSU's Zach Mettenberger can be as hot and cold as any quarterback in America. I think LSU will keep the ball on the ground to protect Mettenberger and the LSU pass rush will wear down Clemson by the end. Besides, the SEC absolutely dominated the ACC in November (Georgia/Georgia Tech, Florida/Florida State, South Carolina/Clemson). I think the SEC gets one more here.
The pick: LSU 31-21


I'll finish the rest of the bowl picks closer to New Year's Day. Merry Christmas, everyone.

Wednesday, December 12, 2012

Royal Gamble: I Get It

There are a lot of mixed feelings about the recent Royals trade that sent top prospects Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery to Tampa Bay in exchange for starters James Shields and Wade Davis. I have some mixed feelings myself. Giving up their top hitting and pitching prospect seemed like a bit much, but I understand what Dayton Moore is doing. He desperately needed better pitching, and he got it. Did he overpay? Probably, but the guys he got might be worth it.

Dayton Moore is going all in for the next two seasons.
The Royals have not made the playoffs since 1985. Kansas City fans really want to see a winner, and they weren't going to see one in 2013 with the staff they had last week. Now, there is some reason for hope.

Saviors? I don't know about that, but I do know that
Shields and Davis are big upgrades to the staff in KC.
You can debate whether or not James Shields is a "true ace" all you want. There is no debating that he is instantly Kansas City's best starting pitcher. Wade Davis might be their second best. At worst, he's their fourth starter. With all due respect to the current starters, there is no chance of being a playoff team with a staff that has Bruce Chen and Luke Hochevar at the top of it.

If you're upset about trading hot prospects like Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi, I get that. They were a high price to pay, but Royals fans have to be tired of the words "prospects," "potential," and "future." At some point, it's time to trade a piece of the future and try to win. To do that, you have to take a risk here and there. I think this was one worth taking. Those prospects might be great, but they might not. James Shields is rock solid, and Wade Davis has proven himself as a big leaguer as well.

Kansas City has a promising lineup that should win quite a few games in the AL Central. Alex Gordon has settled in nicely at the top of the lineup. Salvador Perez, after missing a lot of time with an injury in 2012, could be an All-Star catcher. Billy Butler is solid at DH. Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer went through some sophomore slumps last year, but have all the tools to be successful Major League hitters. How those two as well as the ever-inconsistent Jeff Francoeur perform at the plate will ultimately decide how good or bad the Kansas City offense is in 2013. I think the Royals will be fine at the plate.

With the young pieces in place in the lineup, Dayton Moore had to put together a staff that could win games while all these talented young hitters are under club control. Eventually, they'll become free agents and likely leave. The likelihood that they leave greatly increases if Kansas City stays below .500 for the next two seasons. Then those guys get sick of losing and want to win as well as get paid like Zack Greinke, Carlos Beltran, Johnny Damon and so many others have.

It'll be easy to judge this trade in two years. If the Royals are winners, it was totally worth it. If they are still lousy and Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi are All-Stars, it was stupid. All we can do is judge the risk vs. reward right now, and I tend to agree with Moore's move. I think he got pressured into overpaying in giving up Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery, but I get it.

Is it a risk? Sure, but in the end, what is Moore really risking? If he wins, he's the hero who finally put together a winner in Kansas City. If he loses, well, that's what Kansas City has been doing for 27 years. People tend to overvalue prospects and the future. Royals fans have to be sick of hearing "some day" and "eventually." Win now. If you swing and miss, oh well, you're still the Royals. At least Dayton Moore is trying.

To change that culture of losing, he had to do something drastic. Since he didn't have $147 million to spend on Zack Greinke, this move was worth the price of those great prospects.