College Football Picks: Week 5

The recent trend continues, as I did well on winners (8-2) but was once again .500 against the spread. Overall, it was a big week for chalk: 57 of 59 FBS games were won by the favorites. The only two losers: Arkansas State and BYU. Yep, both picked by me.

It might not get much better this week as there are a few-head scratching lines that could make or break me this week... probably break.

Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech (-7) (Thursday)
In the past, I've always given Virginia Tech the benefit of the doubt despite slow starts. I always think the Hokies will be in the ACC title mix, but I'm not so sure this year. VaTech has looked very sluggish so far. Georgia Tech, meanwhile has looked very impressive with the nation's fourth-ranked rushing attack (albeit against a modest schedule).
Since they're on the road, I think the frustrating downhill slide continues for the Hokies.
The pick: Georgia Tech 31-21

Iowa at Minnesota (+1)
I'm picking this game because why not. I'll take a one-point home 'dog. Minnesota has played a pretty weak schedule, but the Gophers are 4-0 and have run the ball well. I'll take them over a team that will likely finish in the middle of the Big Ten with them.
The pick: Minnesota 24-21

#6 LSU at #9 Georgia (-3)

Todd Gurley and the Bulldogs face their third top ten team.

This is the toughest game of the week for me to call. LSU's offense is better than it has been in recent years, although maybe the defense may be a step behind. Not much, though.
Zach Mettenberger (who first enrolled at Georgia before being kicked off the team) looks like he may have turned a corner for LSU, but his hot-and-cold play in 2012 still makes me a little nervous for the Tigers.
Georgia plays so well at home, and that offense can score on anyone. The pressure is really on Georgia here, though. They want a national title, and this is the end of a brutal first month for them. If they can somehow get a win, their schedule gets really soft after this. Georgia could realistically expect to finish the regular season 11-1, which means they'll win the SEC East and have a shot to win the league. Lose this game, though, and it's almost impossible for a two-loss team to play in the national championship game.
On a neutral field, I think LSU might be a shade better. In Athens, I'll take the Dawgs.
The pick: Georgia 35-31

Arizona at #16 Washington (-7.5)
It's two 3-0 teams in the Pac-12 opening up conference play. Granted, their schedules haven't been that outstanding, but both of these teams are in the top ten in the nation in rushing yards and scoring defense (Arizona is 5th and 3rd, respectively, while Washington is 9th and 8th). Washington is at home, and the Huskies' impressive dismantling of Boise State definitely makes me agree with Vegas.
The pick: Washington 35-27

#21 Ole Miss at #1 Alabama (-17)

Nkemdiche and the young Rebels face their biggest test yet.

Ole Miss brought in a star-studded recruiting class so it could compete with the big boys of the SEC. So far, the young kids have looked really good, but this is a big step up from Vanderbilt and those struggling Longhorns.
If this was Alabama's first game right after Texas A&M, I'd say there would be some letdown potential here. But, it's not. So, I won't. The Ole Miss freshmen might get a little wide-eyed in Tuscaloosa, and Alabama will be dialed in.
The pick: Alabama 42-21

USC at Arizona State (-6)
I can keep this short: USC has yet to look impressive. Arizona State looks like it should be competitive in the Pac-12 (albeit a clear step behind Stanford and Oregon). The Sun Devils are at home and should be able to outscore the inconsistent USC offense.
The pick: Arizona State 27-17

#10 Texas A&M (-3) at Arkansas
This is the head-scratching line of the week. The wise guys in the desert must know something I definitely don't. Texas A&M is one of the best teams in America, and Arkansas lost to Rutgers last week. I don't see how this is a three-point game. I was thinking more like a three-possession game. We'll see, but I'm going with my gut: A&M is way, way better.
The pick: Texas A&M 45-21

#14 Oklahoma (-3.5) at #22 Notre Dame

Blake Bell has a chance to shine for the Sooners in South Bend.

This line also looks a little low to me. Notre Dame has not looked impressive through four games. Oklahoma, coming off a bye, may be hitting its stride. The Sooners unleashed Blake Bell two weeks ago against Tulsa and discovered that he actually can pass the ball quite well. I saw a friend make this point on Twitter: Collin Klein couldn't throw well, yet he dominated the Big 12. Blake Bell can be successful if he's not restricted, and I think Oklahoma has discovered that. Bell's mobility will cause a lot of problems for Notre Dame, and I think Tommy Rees will have a really tough time against the Sooners' defense. Will this be the game that forces Brian Kelly to look at another quarterback? Maybe, maybe not. I do, believe, however, that the Sooners will win this game with relative ease.
The pick: Oklahoma 35-20

#12 South Carolina (-7) at UCF
This line also looks a tad low. The 12th-ranked team in the country, an SEC team at that, going up against an AAC team? Sure, UCF may be one of the better teams in the AAC, but I can't imagine they'd stay within a touchdown of South Carolina by the end of the day.
The pick: South Carolina 35-24

#23 Wisconsin (+7) at #4 Ohio State
This is one of the few games on Ohio State's schedule in which the Buckeyes will truly be tested. Wisconsin's running game has proven to be very strong, and Melvin Gordon may be a star in the making in Madison. The Badgers' running game should keep the Buckeyes' offense on the sideline more than they're used to. The game will be close, but Ohio State will survive.
The pick: Ohio State 24-21

Hopefully, I finally snap this funk against the spread. After all, all bad things must come to an end.

College Football Picks: Week 4

Good news: It was another solid week on winners as I went 8-2.
Bad news: Still struggling against the spread: 5-5.

But at least I didn't insult my readers.

It's a very underwhelming slate of games this week, but I'll give it a shot.

Boise State at Fresno State (-3.5) (Friday)

Friday night is a good chance to watch Derek Carr of
Fresno State if you haven't seen him yet. Pretty good QB.

There should be plenty of points in this one. While Boise State's offense has been always been successful under Chris Petersen, Fresno State's Derek Carr is off to a nice start for Fresno State (661 yards, 8 TD, 1 INT). I did say earlier this season that the Boise State "magic" is gone, but this game isn't about magic. They're two pretty evenly matched teams. I do like the Bulldogs at home, though.
The pick: Fresno State 38-31

Tennessee (+17) at #19 Florida
Tennessee is coming off a crushing blowout loss at Oregon, but that happens to a lot of teams who go to Eugene. While Florida should absolutely win this game, a three-possession spread seems like a lot for a team with a struggling quarterback. Jeff Driskel has looked very average, and maybe a bye week will help him get back on track.
Florida's running game and defense should be enough to get the win, but I think Tennessee will keep it close.
The pick: Florida 24-14

North Carolina at Georgia Tech (-6)
Georgia Tech may quietly be a contender in the ACC. While Florida State and Clemson duke it out for the Atlantic Division, the Yellow Jackets are just as likely as anyone to win the Coastal. Granted, they've only played two games (against Elon and Duke), but still: 356 yards rushing per game and just 14 total points allowed are two very nice stats.
They may allow more than 14 in this game, but that rushing attack is really clicking, and I think Tech wins again.
The pick: Georgia Tech 30-17

Utah (+7) at BYU
As long as both teams are competent, I like to pick rivalry games to be close. BYU had an amazing showing against a bad Texas run defense two weeks ago, and the Cougars had last week off to get ready for this one. Utah will come with a much more balanced attack while BYU will run the ball, although unlikely with as much success as in the Texas game.
I'll take the Cougars' running game in a close one.
The pick: BYU 34-31

Utah State at USC (-6.5)
I'm down on USC as much as everyone else is, but 7 points still seems like a low number against Utah State. Even if the Aggies did put up 122 points in their last two games (52 on Air Force and 70 on Weber State), this should be a little bit of a different challenge. I expect USC's defense to play well, and the offense will build on last week's performance against Boston College.
The pick: USC 34-24

Michigan State at #22 Notre Dame (-6.5)
What to make of Notre Dame after a nail-biting win at Purdue? The offense clearly isn't as versatile with Rees as it was with Golson, and the losses of Manti Te'o and Kapron Lewis-Moore apparently have hurt the defense a lot more than I anticipated. The Irish are simply a top 25 team (maybe), not a top 10 team.
Can a top 25 team beat Michigan State by a touchdown at home? Probably. Connor Cook was recently named the MSU starter after giving the offense a spark last week. I don't think he'll outscore Notre Dame, though.
The pick: Notre Dame 30-21

Arkansas State (-4) at Memphis
Poor Memphis is still building. Despite having a QB who is easy to cheer for in Jacob Karam,  the Tigers just can't put a lot of points on the board right now. Bryan Harsin's Red Wolves can. They should be able to get at least a touchdown more than the Tigers.
The pick: Arkansas State 28-17

#23 Arizona State at #5 Stanford (-7.5)

Kevin Hogan and the Cardinal begin Pac-12 play this week.

Arizona State was beyond lucky to escape with a win against Wisconsin last week. A trip to Palo Alto against a team that could play for the BCS championship will not be quite as forgiving. Stanford hasn't been quite as dominant offensively as some predicted, but I'm confident the Cardinal will get better and better as the season goes along. Stanford will take care of business at home.
The pick: Stanford 33-24

Missouri (-5) at Indiana
Missouri should have enough talent to go to Indiana and win, but Kevin Wilson's offense is starting to click a little bit. The Hoosiers dropped 42 on a respectable Bowling Green squad and sit at 2-1 on the season. I keep waiting for that monster game from Missouri's Dorial Green-Beckham, and I think it's coming soon. He was the top overall recruit in America coming out of high school, and he'll break out sooner or later. Maybe he gets in the endzone a couple times to help Mizzou get comfortable road win.
The pick: Missouri 38-27

Kansas State (+5.5) at Texas
Can it get worse for Mack Brown? Oh yeah, especially when the Longhorns' nemesis, Kansas State visits. Even in down years, Kansas State always gives Texas tough time. While Texas is reeling, I think the athleticism of Texas will be enough to beat a Wildcats team that is lacking some punch, although K-State's offense has come around against some weaker opponents. They'll run  the ball and frustrate Texas by hanging around, but Texas really needs a win at home.
The pick: Texas 27-24

May the jinx of my picks not affect your favorite team. Enjoy the weekend.

College Football Picks: Week 3

It was a so-so showing last week: 7-3 on winners, but I watched in horror as I went just 5-5 against the spread. I was grumpier than Thayer Evans at an Oklahoma State pep rally.

So, my week wasn't great, but I can think of one or two guys who had worse ones. Let's hope this week goes better.

#24 TCU (-3.5) at Texas Tech (Thurs)

Baker Mayfield has been impressive for Texas Tech.

Very disappointing news for TCU over the weekend as Casey Pachall's season (and TCU career) may be in jeopardy. He suffered a broken (non-throwing) forearm and may miss eight weeks. Even if he returns, Trevone Boykin may be entrenched as the starter and Pachall may have to settle for spot playing time.
Texas Tech has a little bit happier QB situation: freshman walk-on Baker Mayfield has been outstanding. Yes, the competition has been bad, but 780 yards, 7 TD and completing over 71% is solid work.
Doing that against TCU's defense will prove much more difficult. Getting all the first team reps in practice should benefit Boykin, albeit in a short week. That part has me a little concerned, but I'll pick the Frogs to get a nice road win.
The pick: TCU 34-28

#7 Louisville (-13) at Kentucky
I include this game because it's the only remote possibility, in my opinion, that Louisville loses before December (at Cincinnati to close out the season). The schedule gets really soft in the American Athletic Conference after this. Louisville may win every game in October and November by 20+ points. Not that there's anything wrong with that.
This is a rivalry game on the road against an SEC team... an SEC team that lost to Western Kentucky. Louisville shouldn't be worried.
The pick: Louisville 40-14

Iowa at Iowa State (+2.5)
Well, it's a rivalry, but neither team has looked all that impressive so far. Iowa is 1-1 after losing to Northern Illinois and getting by Missouri State. Iowa State lost to Northern Iowa to begin the season.
With a bye week to prepare, I'll put a little faith in Paul Rhoades. This game may not be much to watch, but I'll take the home team.
The pick: Iowa State 17-14

#16 UCLA (+4.5) at #23 Nebraska
UCLA is playing with heavy hearts after wide receiver Nick Pasquale was killed in a car accident last week.
Tragedy aside, I do like this UCLA team. I think Jim Mora is doing a nice job, Anthony Barr is a difference maker on defense, and there are plenty of talented players on that offense. The Bruins have had an extra week to prepare for a road trip to Lincoln, and I think they'll really get after Taylor Martinez.
Nebraska will do fine in Big Ten play, but I think this may be the toughest opponent on their schedule (Michigan the other contender there. Nebraska does not play Ohio State in the regular season).
UCLA will go to Lincoln and get an impressive, hard-fought win.
The pick: UCLA 31-30

Boston College (+14.5)  at USC
USC is a two-touchdown favorite. That seems like a lot for a team that didn't even score two touchdowns against Washington State. The USC offense is a mess, and I can't help but wonder how long it will be before Lane Kiffin tries taking the redshirt of freshman Max Browne and throws him in at QB. While Browne may be a star one day, I don't think he would fix everything this year. On the other hand, he couldn't be less productive than the guys USC has been playing.
The Trojans should still win at home against an average Boston College team, but I'll take my chances with those 14.5 points.
The pick: USC 27-14

#1 Alabama (-7.5) at #6 Texas A&M

Can Manziel take down the giant again? I don't think so.

I had this as my most anticipated game entering the season, and I still basically feel that way. Thank goodness (for the fans' sake) Manziel is playing. It's what everyone has wanted to see: if lightning strikes twice and Manziel takes down mighty 'Bama again... or if Saban gets his revenge.
Unfortunately, I don't think this game will live up to the hype. Saban has had an extra week to prepare (forget the time he spent in the offseason). A&M's defense has had its question marks against Rice and Sam Houston State, and I think the Tide will move the ball very well. Manziel will have his moments, and the Aggies won't get embarrassed. In the end, though, A&M will have a tough time stopping Alabama.
The pick: Alabama 44-31

Georgia Tech (-8) at Duke
While I sang the praises of Duke as a slowly rising program last week (and they came through for me), that was against Memphis. This frustrating rushing attack of Georgia Tech presents a different challenge. Duke may hang around and get the home crowd excited, but I think Tech will quiet them in the fourth quarter.
The pick: Georgia Tech 41-31

#4 Ohio State (-15) at Cal
While I definitely think Cal has a rising star in QB Jared Goff, he won't be enough against these Buckeyes. Whether Braxton Miller plays or not, Ohio State should have no trouble scoring. Kenny Guiton has looked just as effective in relief. Goff may be a star eventually, but he may be in for a rough day against the Buckeyes' D. Ohio State will be just fine on their west coast trip.
The pick: Ohio State 35-17

Ole Miss (+4.5) at Texas

Texas could not make a tackle against BYU last Saturday.
How much will Greg Robinson help in just a week?

Breaking news/expert analysis: the Texas defense is pretty awful. I thought Texas wouldn't get truly exposed until the Oklahoma game, but the downfall of Mack Brown has started early this season. He "reassigned" (a fancy way of saying fired) defensive coordinator Manny Diaz after the BYU loss, but how much will Greg Robinson fix in a week?
I think the athletes on that Ole Miss offense could have a field day against Texas. Yes, the Rebels "only" won 31-13 against Southeast Missouri State, but they were up 31-0 and took their foot off the gas at halftime.
If you saw their opener against Vanderbilt, you know how explosive Ole Miss can be. Texas may be able to score a little, but it won't be enough. And the grumbling gets louder in Austin.
The pick: Ole Miss 38-31

#21 Wisconsin at Arizona State (-5.5)
These two teams have combined to destroy three lousy opponents 145-0 in the first two weeks of action. So this is the first legitimate game for both, making it hard to judge how good either team is. I lean towards the home team that has probably the most inspiring tunnel in college football.
The pick: Arizona State 31-24

Finally, I will keep an eye on the Oklahoma State game. Not because they're a 47-point favorite at Lamar, but by Saturday, a scathing Sports Illustrated report will be out. I'm sure OSU fans will proudly wear their orange and support the players, but a lot of questions will be asked. I'm curious what Mike Gundy says, whether his name is all over the report or not.

The game will be the easy part, but it will be a long week in Stillwater.

College Football Picks: Week 2

It was a respectable 2013 debut as I went 8-2 on winners and 7-3 against the spread. Going out on a limb for Cal cost me, but overall I was content with the effort.

Three quick takeaways from the first weekend (possibly topics to expand on in future blogs):

1. Attack of the FCS - The artists formerly known as I-AA had quite a showing: 8 wins over FBS schools, including Eastern Washington taking down #25 Oregon State, North Dakota State stunning Kansas State in Manhattan, and McNeese State blowing out South Florida. Was this an anomaly or is the gap between FCS and FBS closing?

2. Faking injuries - College football fans may not want to hear this, but faking injuries is becoming as much a part of their game as it is in soccer. Just as soccer players routinely dive and roll around in agony to draw a yellow card, college football players are now being instructed by their coaches to pretend to be hurt to disrupt offensive tempo. It's as troublesome as flopping in the NBA. It's brutal to watch, but it's here and I'm not sure it can be stopped. I wish I had a good solution to this. Maybe I will in a future blog.

3. Ejections - I'm all for player safety, but the NCAA may have gone a step too far with this rule that makes officials eject players for what they deem to be targeting. Some of these calls are so borderline, and it seems extreme to toss a guy out for what MIGHT be targeting. Some of these guys are just hitting the way they have been taught for about 10 years. If it's a blatant attempt to decapitate a player, sure throw that guy out, but I think a hit like the one we saw in the Cal/Northwestern game should not be ejection-worthy. An unfair ejection is going to cost a top 10 team a huge game at some point this season, and there are going to be riots among those fans.

Takes done. On to this week's picks:

#12 Florida (-3) at Miami (FL)

If Mack Brown is productive, Florida is a dangerous team.

While the Gators were a little sluggish against Toledo, Florida has to be happy with Mack Brown. The former blue chip prospect may be finally ready for a breakout season. If he and freshman phenom Kelvin Taylor (son of Gators great Fred Taylor) can help Florida control the clock, that means Jeff Driskel has to do a lot less to help Florida escape Miami with a win. I'll take the SEC talent on a top-12 team, even on the road in a rivalry game.
The pick: Florida 24-20

Houston (-3) at Temple
An overall uninspiring week two slate has me picking a game from this brutal American Athletic Conference. Temple was vulnerable to the big play against Notre Dame, and it had trouble moving the ball. To be fair, I think a lot of teams will have trouble against that ND defense. Houston's offense put up 62 on an overwhelmed Southern team. They'll have a tougher time in Philadelphia, but not significantly tougher. Big plays should lead Houston to a win.
The pick: Houston 42-34

Cincinnati (-8) at Illinois
After blowing out a team in the bottom half of the Big Ten last week, Cincinnati goes on the road this week to take on another one. Illinois barely escaped becoming the ninth FBS team last week to lose to an FCS team as it defeated Southern Illinois 42-34.
Tommy Tuberville has an above average team on his hands, and I'm sure he has Cincy talking BCS since the Bearcats are probably the second best team (behind Louisville) in the otherwise very weak American Athletic Conference. His squad will get it done on the road.
The pick: Cincinnati 31-21

#6 South Carolina at #11 Georgia (-3)
Georgia's brutal first month continues. After an upsetting opener at Clemson, now the Bulldogs come home to try to stop the most feared player in college football, Jadeveon Clowney. Despite the loss, Georgia's offense looked explosive, and I don't see that changing at home. The loss of Malcolm Mitchell hurts, but the offense scored 35 points without him last week. They may not score quite that many this week, but they may not have to. South Carolina did have 406 yards of offense against UNC, but it relied mostly on big plays to score its points. Those may be harder to come by between the hedges. Georgia rebounds from a tough loss.
The pick: Georgia 27-21

Duke (-6) at Memphis
I wish this was a basketball game. Duke, though, is viewed by many as a slowly rising team in the ACC. The Blue Devils are not going to win a championship any time soon, but they could become a regular bowl team for the league. Duke is getting better, and Memphis has quite a bit of work to do. Even on the road, I think Duke wins by more than one possession.
The pick: Duke 38-28

Syracuse at #19 Northwestern (-12)

Pat Fitzgerald and the Wildcats should
comfortably win the "Prose Bowl."

Cleverly dubbed the Prose Bowl, it features two schools known for producing quality journalists, particularly sports journalists... although there's another school out there that I think is just as good. Maybe I'm biased.
Northwestern pulled out a 42-41 thriller last year as Ryan Nassib led Syracuse on a furious late-game rally to take the lead before the Wildcats scored in the final minute. Nassib is now a New York Giant, and Syracuse does not have an NFL QB on its roster now.
Northwestern, on the other hand is building and looked pretty good in a tricky west coast opener against Cal. The Wildcats should be quite comfortable at home, and all of its journalist alumni should have a comfortable win to write about.
The pick: Northwestern 42-24

#15 Texas (-7) at BYU
Texas has struggled in recent years, but people sure are quick to pile on when things don't go perfectly. Twitter was ready to fire Mack Brown at halftime when UT got off to a slow start and trailed New Mexico State 7-0. Then Texas won 56-7 like it was supposed to.
BYU, on the other hand, started slowly and finished slowly at Virginia in a 19-16 loss. While I'm not ready to jump on the "Texas is back" bandwagon until after the Oklahoma game, the 'Horns should have way too much for BYU.
The pick: Texas 35-17

Colorado State (+10) at Tulsa
Ten points seems to be a big number for a team that looked as sluggish as Tulsa did last week. It's hard to judge Colorado State after just one game, a two-touchdown defeat to rival Colorado (another rebuilding program). The Tulsa offense was expected to be a lot more explosive, and I don't think it will be quiet two weeks in a row. However, the problems from last week might not be completely fixed in a week. The Rams might hang around, but TU will get a win.
The pick: Tulsa 27-20

Western Kentucky (+14) at Tennessee
Could Bobby Petrino make it back-to-back wins in the state of Tennessee over SEC teams? WKU defeated Kentucky in Nashville last week. This should be a step up in competition certainly, and I'd be stunned if the Hilltoppers won in Knoxville. Petrino intrigues me, though. While, he may make some poor decisions off the field, he can coach. He'll put together a game plan that will make Vols fans sweat, but Tennessee won't lose at home.
The pick: Tennessee 34-21

#14 Notre Dame (+3.5) at #17 Michigan

Tommy Rees made some nice throws against Temple.
Those won't be as easy to come by in the Big House.

Notre Dame's win over Temple was about what I expected: convincing but not spectacular. Tommy Rees looked great, but he had all day to throw. He won't have all day in the Big House. Amir Carlisle, though, could be a big factor in this game if he can get enough touches. He had 68 yards rushing on just seven carries and looked very explosive.
Michigan crushed a clearly overmatched Central Michigan team. Notre Dame's defense will be a much stiffer test for Devin Gardner and company. Despite the 59-9 blowout, Michigan's passing game was not outstanding: 14-of-21 for 221 yards, 1 TD and 3 picks between Gardner and freshman Shane Morris. The running game will have to control the game if Michigan wants to win this one. Freshman Derrick Green could shine.
Debate about whether or not this is a "historic" rivalry if you want, I think it's a good one. It's two of the winningest programs in the sport. They first met in 1887, and I know there are huge gaps in the rivalry (they only played twice between 1910 and 1978). I've been on this earth for 33 football seasons, and these two teams have met in 27 of them. From the Rocket to Desmond Howard to Shoelace, there have been some great games that I remember. To me, it's a traditional rivalry that I look forward to each year, and I hate that it's going away soon.
These two played a wild shootout under the lights in Ann Arbor two years ago that Michigan won in the final seconds. I think this time around will be a little different: a low-scoring rock fight that goes to the home team. It will be close, but I think the road atmosphere and Michigan's defense will be too much for the Irish.
The pick: Michigan 14-13

Finally, the curious line of the week to me: Kansas is a 23-point favorite over FCS opponent South Dakota, a team that was 1-11 last year. Yes, that's a bad team visiting Lawrence, but Kansas hasn't beaten anyone by that many points in three years. I'm not rooting against Charlie Weis and I think he has a promising QB in Jake Heaps, but that just seems like a big number next to Kansas for any opponent.

Enjoy week two, and watch out for that top step.