Potential Bid Thieves

Technically, there are 37 at-large bids for the NCAA tournament. We all know that number ends up being smaller as underdogs inevitably win a few conference tournaments to earn a bid and shrink the at-large pool.

Here are some  teams and tournaments that bubble teams should be worried about. To clarify, these are teams that have no chance at an at-large bid and are in leagues that have at least one team that is certain to be in the NCAA tournament.

La Salle, St. Bonaventure, UMass (Atlantic 10)
Probably no tournament will have more bubble teams on edge than the A-10. Temple and Saint Louis are the only real locks in the league. Saint Joseph's and Xavier are on the bubble, so they may or may not steal a bid by winning. There are probably three or four other teams that realistically have a shot at winning. I would be really concerned about La Salle, though. La Salle is 18-11 with an RPI of 89, which isn't awful but does put them outside of the at-large contenders. The Explorers have seven losses in the league, but all have been close. The tournament is in Atlantic City, meaning several La Salle students and fans will make the short trip from Philadelphia. St. Bonaventure and UMass could also make a run depending on the draw. Beware the A-10 tournament. It almost always steals a bid.

Cal State Fullerton, UC Santa Barbara (Big West)
A small league like the Big West makes people nervous. It has one team (Long Beach State) with strong NCAA credentials (19 wins, RPI of 36) and a bunch of teams with no business being in the field. Fullerton and Santa Barbara are the only teams that could capitalize on a Long Beach State slip up, as they are the only teams other than the 49ers that are above .500 in the league. Bubble teams everywhere are huge Long Beach State fans.

George Mason, Old Dominion (Colonial)
The Colonial is probably a one-bid league, maybe two as Drexel and VCU are at the top. A win by George Mason or Old Dominion in the finals over either of those two could take a bid away, however. The committee has shown respect to this league in the past. As we all remember, George Mason and VCU have surprisingly got in from this league in the past and made it all the way to the Final Four.

Tulsa, Central Florida, Marshall (Conference USA)

Jordan Clarkson and TU have been playing well lately,
and they could be a team to fear at the C-USA Tournament.

C-USA is a two-bid league with Memphis and Southern Miss. Memphis almost always wins the conference tournament when it hosts as it does this season. Bubble teams should be nervous about Tulsa, however. The Golden Hurricane has played really well lately and almost upset Southern Miss (the conference leader at the time) on its home floor. Tulsa still has a shot to claim the regular season title if it wins both of its last two (including Memphis at home) at Southern Miss drops one more. Central Florida (RPI of 60) and Marshall (59) have decent credentials and could also steal a bid, but Tulsa's recent strong play has my attention.

Loyola, MD (MAAC)
With 24 wins and an RPI of 42, Iona leads the MAAC and has a decent shot at an at-large. The Gaels have lost to Loyola once, however, and a loss to them in the MAAC Championship might cost a bubble team a bid. If Iona loses early in the tournament, however, Iona may not get into the field and a Loyola upset win might not steal a bid.

Northern Iowa, Illinois State, Evansville, Drake, Missouri State, Indiana State (Missouri Valley)
The Missouri Valley might have bubble teams more nervous than the Atlantic 10. Behind NCAA locks Creighton and Wichita State, there are five teams in the league at 9-9 and Indiana State right behind at 8-10. Bubble teams everywhere are pulling hard for a Jays/Shockers final, but anything could happen in this tournament.

Tennessee State, Morehead State, Tennessee Tech (Ohio Valley)
Murray State has been a bit of a hot topic this year considering how high the Racers have been ranked despite a modest schedule. All bubble teams, though, fear the Racers tripping up in their conference tournament. Tennessee State handed Murray State its lone loss on the season while Morehead State and Tennessee Tech both played very good games. Any of these three could knock off the Racers in Nashville.

Oregon, Colorado, UCLA, Stanford (Pac-12)
We've all taken our shots at how mediocre the Pac-12 is. No team in that league is a lock right now, but Washington and California look pretty good with Arizona not far behind. There is no doubt there is a lot of parity in this league. I would say just about any team has a shot at winning this thing because I have no confidence in anyone in it. Most likely, an underdog winning this tournament would just steal a bid from one of the other bubble teams in the league, but you never know. Bubble teams from other leagues, though, want Washington or Cal to take this one.

Tennessee (SEC)
I wouldn't bet a dime on it, but the Volunteers have some talent and could pull a shocker. They only lost to Kentucky by three at home (but they did lose by 25 in Lexington). If Kentucky gets caught napping, it's more likely that one of the league's tournament locks (Florida, Vanderbilt, Alabama) or bubble team Mississippi State claim the SEC tournament. Keep an eye on the Vols, though.

South Dakota State (Summit)
This one is borderline, but it's worth mentioning. The Summit League's regular season champ, Oral Roberts, isn't quite a tournament lock. Although, if ORU loses in the Summit League finals, the Golden Eagles would be 28-6 and currently have an RPI of 45. That would make them an interesting case for an at-large bid. Bubble teams would much rather ORU win the Summit League tournament and claim that bid than have someone else take it and have another bubble team in the pool. South Dakota State is the clear favorite to take the bid from ORU since the Jackrabbits handed ORU its only regular season conference loss, and the tournament is in Sioux Falls.

So, there you have it: ten potential bids that could be stolen. It's unlikely that all of these tournaments are claimed by underdogs. If you've ever watched Championship Week, though, you know at least a couple will.

A Tip to the Aspiring Journalist

I don't claim to be an expert on how to be a great journalist, but after nearly nine years in the business, I'd like to think I know a few things. If I could offer one piece of advice to the young folks out there who want to enter this field (whether TV or newspaper or other), it would be this: value being right over being first.

It's great if you can be both. Ultimately, being both right and first should be your goal. Those who can do both consistently are at the top of the industry. However, in today's fast-paced media world, there are some who would rather be first and apologize later if they turn out to be wrong. I can't really pick out a specific person who does this, but it does happen too often. Most of the people I've come across do their jobs the right way. There have been instances lately, however, when someone trying to throw something out there first has created quite a mess.

The worst example of this recently was when a Penn State blog was posted that Joe Paterno had passed away. Someone at CBSSports.com saw that and posted it on their site, and word spread through Twitter and the internet like wildfire. CBSSports.com ended up with egg on their faces when the family had to come out and say that Paterno was still alive and fighting for his life. Paterno died the next day, but that doesn't change the fact that some bad information added stress and anxiety to an already difficult time for Paterno's family. One extra phone call (from either the blog or CBSSports.com) to confirm Paterno's passing would have avoided that. Someone, though, had to be first.

Everyone involved issued apologies for getting the story wrong, but the damage was done to both the sites and to the Paterno family.

That's the big problem with the Twitter-era of journalism: all information travels fast, including bad information. Once you put a tweet out there, it's out there and you really can't take it back. You can try to delete it, but it just takes a couple people to see it and run with it. This past fall, a television station in Kansas tweeted erroneously that Mack Brown was retiring after the season. A few hundred retweets later, Mack Brown had to be asked about it and laugh at how ridiculous the report was.

The recent Ryan Braun situation was similar, but not exactly like the previous two. It's more about some irresponsible person leaking information that should not have been leaked. Again, the information spread quickly. Once someone heard from a source that the NL MVP tested positive for drugs, the race to be first with the news was on. Ryan Braun fell under the "cheater" label before all the facts were in. I can't blame any media outlet for running with the story, however. MLB suspending Ryan Braun for 50 games was a fact, and there was no harm in reporting it. The problem was more that all the facts were not in. Braun's name is now cleared (for the most part), but I'm sure several people will continue to look at him with skeptical eyes.

So, kids, if you're going to enter this field, go right ahead if you're passionate about it. Don't be afraid to chase and confirm controversial stories, because they can really build your reputation and put you on the fast track to success. Just make sure you are right before you run with a story and toss it out there on Twitter or blogs or wherever. Way too many out there fail to do so, and that needs to stop.

Buzz Williams at his Best

Marquette's win Friday night at West Virginia was a great night for Buzz Williams. It was a perfect microcosm of why Golden Eagle fans (and many others) love the guy, and it had almost nothing to do with what happened during the game. It was about what happened before and after.

There's a lot to love about Buzz Williams.

Before the game, Buzz suspended four players for half the game (Vander Blue, Junior Cadougan and Darius Johnson-Odom for the first half and Todd Mayo for the second). This isn't the first time this season Buzz has suspended players for all or part of game for unspecified team rules. Williams is big on discipline, and he said he needs to teach his guys life lessons.

When asked for specifics about what rules were broken, Williams never reveals those. He keeps those problems in house. As a fan, I want to know what's going on. It would be nice to know exactly what these guys are doing. Are they breaking curfew? Swearing? Cheating on tests? Not eating their vegetables? A little transparency would be nice. However, I can understand Williams wanting to keep these things private. I would imagine that it helps any hurt feelings over the suspension to heal a little more quickly if no one knows what's going on.

Williams simply says things like, "Do you have kids? Do you discipline them? Okay." And we all get it. I'm not sure I get suspending them for half of an important game when you could punish the players in practice, but I guess that's why Williams is a head coach making millions of dollars and I'm a producer/blogger making... well, less than that.

That was all before the game. It tells us that Williams is maturing as a coach. After the rumors of lack of control and alleged assaults that happened last season, it is good to see Williams is laying down the law and teaching his players lessons that they will need after basketball is done.

Then there was what happened after the game. Buzz dancing on the court showed his quirky personality that has made him such a media darling. We've seen crazy sideline antics, hilarious soundbites and great stories from him before. It's part of his charm. It's easy to praise him when he's your own coach. If I were a West Virginia fan, I'd be ticked. Thankfully, I'm not a West Virginia fan. I've never burned a couch in my life.

Williams likes to play himself off as a dumb Texas hick sometimes, but he's not nearly as dumb as he makes himself out to be. He's actually very smart. Maybe his little dance was simply a case of a guy getting caught up in the emotions of a big win. Then again, there may be a part of Williams that knew exactly what he was doing. Nobody outside of West Virginia likes West Virginia, and rubbing it in a little as they head to the Big 12 was just perfect.

No doubt. Buzz has some Al in him.

Doesn't it remind everyone of Al McGuire? There's the classic photo of Al McGuire waving to the Wisconsin student section after a big win. And I may be off here, but I've heard that the iconic photo of Al McGuire waving with two hands was actually Al waving sarcastically to some heckling Notre Dame fans. True or not, that's the Al that Marquette fans loved. It's why they love Buzz Williams, too.

I've written this entire blog about why Williams was at his best on Friday night, and I've yet to talk about how he coached during the game. He played half the game with only six guys, and he led the team back from 11 down at the half (and down by as many as 15) with another player suspended.

The guy is getting it done. I love having Buzz Williams as Marquette's coach, and I hope he stays there a long, long time.

A couple other quick nuggets from Friday's win:
- The Big East Player of the Year race is over. Jae Crowder won it. He didn't have his best night shooting the ball, but still got 26 points while Kevin Jones had just 12. He was the glue that kept that team together in the first half when those three guys were sitting out. It's time to talk about Crowder as an All-American. He might not make the first team, but who knows?
- Seeing Marquette play without Junior Cadougan for a half then getting him back made it crystal clear how critical he is to Marquette's transition game. They need him to play well, and he did.
- Marquette still misses Davante Gardner a little, but only a little. He won't get his starting job back if/when he is healthy. This team is playing too well. Gardner will become a valuable player off the bench as a big man, though.
- Earlier in the year, I (and many other #mubb Twitter folks) groaned over every slow Marquette start. They have overcome so many, however, I don't think I'll get bent out of shape even if they are down 30 at some point this season. They keep rallying to win these games, and that's a credit to Buzz Williams.

I have no idea how far this team can go in March, but there is really a lot to like right now.

The Myth of the "Full 40 Minutes"

I don't blog much about my favorite team, the Marquette Golden Eagles. This is probably because the market is pretty much covered on Marquette blogs: there are the hilarious super fans at Anonymous Eagle, the students who are close to the program at Paint Touches, and the in-depth statistics over at Cracked Sidewalks. Between those three and a few others, pretty much everything is covered.

As the season goes along, we are all running out of complaints about this team. Many of us (myself included) groaned over the slow starts, some bad shot selection and the concern about leadership when the team was struggling in December. Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder have certainly soothed some of those concerns lately. The team is getting better each time out. The leadership issue is definitely no longer a concern, as this team would be nowhere without its seniors. The team may not be perfect, but the flaws are becoming less noticeable. One question we see and hear a lot, though: can they put together a full 40 minutes? My response to that: how often does anyone ever really play a full 40 minutes?

While it would be nice to dominate a team from the opening tip to the final buzzer, that rarely happens in conference play and the NCAA tournament. Every team makes a run. Even if it's only a little 7-0 run to make you sweat a little, every team will make some sort of run.

Marquette may have played its best game of the season against UConn on Saturday, when the Golden Eagles won by 15 at the XL Center. MU was in control from the opening tip, but UConn was able to get within four points before a technical foul swung the momentum back to Marquette. Did MU play a "full 40?" No, but it's hard to complain about that effort overall.

I think playing a "full 40" is a myth like "giving 110 percent." It might not be possible, but it's a nice dream to shoot for so you never get content. I thought about this after the Oral Roberts win over Akron on Saturday. ORU senior Dominique Morrison was asked if the win could have gone any better. He laughed and said, "Yeah, we could have made more shots and they could have made less shots. It can always go better."

He's right. I don't know if ORU could say they played a "full 40," but they played pretty darn well and were very proud of the win.

In the end, having more points after 40 minutes is more important than playing a full 40 minutes. Even if a team does struggle for five minutes, it really doesn't matter if the team dominates the other 35. Sure, shoot for a full 40 next time because you never want to stop improving. We fans should just remember that if our only is complaint is "they didn't play a full 40," then things are going pretty well.

I Can Survive Without Football... For Now

It's our first weekend without football since August. Most people are bummed. Some are complaining on Facebook and Twitter about what they are going to watch or do. Others are already starting the countdown to kickoff this fall.

Me? I'm good.

I don't hate football. I like it very much, but I'm okay with the break. I'd like to enjoy a few other things, give myself some time to miss football, and I'll be anxious for it to start again come August.

I need some time to appreciate college basketball. I need March Madness. I need my baseball. I need to work on my golf swing... a lot.

I need a break from Sunday morning preview shows. I need a break from Tebow Mania. I need a break from complaining about the BCS.

Maybe it's because I went to a college that didn't have football. Maybe it's because I work in sports television and football can be a grind, but I'm comfortable with a little football hiatus.

The offseason gives football players a chance to rest up and come back better than ever, much like a rainy day waters the flowers so those sunny, 80-degree days look even better. So, while the rain may not be what you want, know it's necessary sometimes.

I'll enjoy the football offseason because there are a lot of other sports I like to catch up on. When August gets here, though, I'll be anxious for football just like the rest of you. That's when the offseason rain stops and that beautiful, sunny football season will look as good as ever.

Manning Heading Down an Ugly Road

I've always been a Manning fan, but the situation between
him and the Colts is getting messy and needs to end.

Peyton Manning is a legend, not just in Indianapolis, but to NFL fans everywhere. Lately, though, we've seen an ugly side of him. He's said some less than favorable things about the only franchise he's ever known, he's been a media hog during Super Bowl week, and this is all souring the relationship with his team to the point that it seems very unlikely he'll ever play there again.

Does this remind you of anyone?

Yes, Manning is heading down the Brett Favre road. He's not there yet, but can't you see it getting there? The Manning/Luck issue could be come similar to Favre/Rodgers. We're just a couple retirements, a couple comebacks, and a sexting scandal away from Favre II.

I hope it doesn't get that far. Putting myself in Peyton's shoes, I can understand wanting to fight for your spot and not wanting to be chased out of town. If he really didn't want to be a distraction, though, during Super Bowl week, he would have turned his phone off and continued his rehab somewhere far away from Lucas Oil Stadium.

Whatever the "right" solution is, I hope Manning and the Colts can reach it peacefully and without taking shots at each other in the media. 

In the end, it is a business, and Manning's enormous 28 million dollar roster bonus in March is a lot to commit to a guy who may never be the same again.

It would be great for Colts fans and the NFL if Manning could return for a swan song in Indianapolis before handing over the reigns to Andrew Luck. If he and Colts do part ways, though, I wouldn't mind seeing the Chiefs make room for him at Arrowhead. Hey, it worked okay once before, didn't it?

Need a New Bandwagon?

Well, Tebowmania is going into hibernation. One loss doesn't make me "right" any more than the win two weeks ago made me "wrong," but I stand by my opinion of Tim Tebow. He's great in spots, awful in others. He's a great guy who has a place in the NFL, but I wouldn't bet my franchise on him. I really don't have an interest in piling on a quality human being any more than that. So, that's all I'll say about him.

Now, though, who will America cheer for now that everyone's favorite underdog is watching at home?

The Patriots are the complete opposite of an underdog. They are the dominant franchise of the last decade. So, if you want to pull for dominance and greatness (nothing wrong with that), there's New England.

The Giants have a pretty big bandwagon of their own: the biggest market in the country. They have a nice history and a pair of Super Bowls. Eli Manning won one of those Super Bowls, meaning there's no monkey on his back. So, there's not much of an underdog feel there, either.

The Ravens? Well, I guess that depends on how you feel about Joe Flacco, Ray Lewis, and John Harbaugh. There are mixed feelings out there about all those guys. Maybe if the Ravens hadn't won Super Bowl XXXV, I'd feel good for the city of Baltimore to get an NFL title again, but that's not a story now. Baltimore just doesn't have a reason for me to jump on the bandwagon.

Then, there's San Francisco. While we were all caught up in Tebowmania, we may have overlooked a great underdog story out west. This isn't even about the proud 49ers' franchise that has fallen on hard times, including a 6-10 campaign last year. This is about the quarterback everyone had given up on. This is about Alex Smith.

I'm not saying he's elite yet, but my opinion of Alex Smith changed Saturday.

Alex Smith was taken first overall in the 2005 NFL Draft. In the seven seasons since, he has played for seven different offensive coordinators and three head coaches. He's dealt with some frustrating injuries and the lofty expectations that come with playing quarterback for the same franchise that had Joe Montana and Steve Young.

Excuses aside, there was no shaking the fact that Alex Smith had underachieved. His numbers were somewhere between "unspectacular" and "terrible."

Aaron Rodgers was taken 23 spots behind Smith in the 2005 NFL Draft and has emerged from Brett Favre's shadow to become an elite NFL quarterback and Super Bowl champion. The fact that Rodgers is a California kid and a product of nearby Cal-Berkeley didn't help matters as many local fans wanted Rodgers from the beginning and have groaned about Smith since draft day.

While no other quarterback in that draft has found great success, many had had more successful careers than Smith entering 2011: Jason Campbell (25th overall), Kyle Orton (106th), Derek Anderson (213th), Matt Cassel (230th), and Ryan Fitzpatrick (250th).

Smith's rookie contract expired after the 2010 season, but the 49ers brought him back on a one-year deal. They mainly did this because there were few better options available and little time to find a trade after the lockout ended. It was truly Smith's last chance to deliver before San Francisco moved in another direction at quarterback. Smith won the starting job and the respect of new head coach Jim Harbaugh, and a great redemption story began.

In a season that saw guys like Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Matthew Stafford put up video game statistics, Alex Smith quietly put up career highs in yards (3,144), completion percentage (61.3), and quarterback rating (90.7). His modest total of 17 touchdowns was one short of his career high, but he only threw 5 interceptions (which would be a career low, but he threw 4 in 2007 when he only played 7 games). None of those numbers are amazing, but they were a step in the right direction for Smith.

Oh by the way, he led the 49ers to 13 wins, their most since 1997. He also led an offense that tied an NFL record for fewest turnovers with 10.

The regular season stats, though, aren't why I'm on the Alex Smith bandwagon. It was this weekend's win over the Saints. Going toe-to-toe with a future Hall of Fame quarterback in Drew Brees, Smith got it done when we were all expecting him to fall short like he had for the previous six seasons.

When Smith scrambled for a 28-yard touchdown to give San Francisco the lead, I was impressed. After Brees gave the Saints the lead and Smith marched the team back down the field with under two minutes to play, I was stunned. When Smith fired a strike to Vernon Davis to win the game, my jaw hit the floor.

Was it a brief moment of glory or the beginning of
something great for Alex Smith? I'm anxious to find out.

This guy who was considered a bust and a joke five months ago just completed seven of nine passes down the stretch. He led his team on fourth quarter scoring drives of 80 and 85 yards. He rushed 28 yards for one of those touchdowns and threaded the needle for another to get the best of Drew Brees.

Wow.

Did I just see a star born? Time will tell. Those two drives, though, made me a believer in Alex Smith. He made precise throws, made great decisions under pressure and got the win. That was cold-blooded. That's what champions do.

It was asked on Twitter this week why people are all about Tebow and nobody talks about Smith. I think the reason for that is that Tebow, despite his flaws, has had some spectacular game-winning moments (the touchdown run against the Jets and the pass to beat Pittsburgh) and he was also a highly-decorated media darling in college, too. Smith isn't spectacular, and he really wasn't on the national media's radar until his final season at Utah. Despite those 13 wins, he hadn't really had a "big moment" in the NFL until this weekend. Saturday, though, he made a play for the ages.

Could it be a fluke? Of course. No names have come up in big moments before. Then again, maybe this is the beginning of a new chapter in San Francisco 49ers' lore. I'm anxious to see what's next.

So, if you need a new underdog to cheer for, join me on the Alex Smith bandwagon.