College Football Picks: Week 1

Rejoice. My picks blog - for entertainment purposes only - is back. For those new to the program, I pick ten games of interest every week, both winners and against the spread.

The season is here! So, feast your eyes on a fresh round of picks.

Utah State at Utah (-3) (Thursday)
It's a rivalry game, and the first college football game on Fox Sports 1. Utah State took this game last year in overtime and went on to have an outstanding 11-2 season. Then Coach Gary Andersen left for Wisconsin.
Utah was a disappointing 5-7 a year ago, but I'll pick the Pac-12 program to win a rivalry game at home.
The pick: Utah 21-17

North Carolina at #6 South Carolina (-11) (Thursday)

Jadeveon Clowney is about to be let loose on college football.

Unleash the Clowney. The top NFL prospect in college football begins unleashing his terror on opposing quarterbacks. I can't remember a defensive prospect being hyped this much for the Heisman before a game has been played, and there's no reason to doubt that he's worthy of the hype. He's looked like an NFL player since he was in high school.
Besides Clowney, South Carolina has plenty of talent and SEC title dreams. I don't expect them to have any trouble at home against UNC.
The pick: South Carolina 33-13

Texas Tech (-5.5) at SMU (Friday)
Did you know that Garrett Gilbert is still in college? The freshman who replaced an injured Colt McCoy in the BCS title game once open a time has one year of eligibility left, and he's back at SMU. While I'd like to see the kid break through and have a big season, I'm not sure it's happening.
Texas Tech should feature an exciting offense under Kliff Kingsbury, and Red Raider fans are thrilled to see it. I think they'll throw it all over the field on an overmatched SMU defense.
The pick: Texas Tech 38-24

Mississippi State vs #13 Oklahoma State (-12.5) (in Houston, TX)
Ever since Oklahoma State barely missed out on a chance to play in the BCS title game two years ago, OSU fans have been dying to get a shot at the SEC. Well, here you go... kind of. Mississippi State isn't exactly the cream of the crop in the SEC, but MSU is no bottom-feeder either.
I saw a cute stat today from a press release. It said Mike Gundy is 8-1 in his last nine games against "current SEC teams." Of course, seven of those wins are against Missouri and pre-Sumlin Texas A&M. Adorable stat, but I'm going with 1-1 in his last two games against actual SEC teams (a win over Georgia and loss to Ole Miss in the Cotton Bowl).
The Cowboys appear to be going with a two-quarterback system of Clint Chelf and J.W. Walsh. That isn't official, but Gundy hasn't named a starter yet. I expect to see some of both, though. Regardless of who is at quarterback, OSU has plenty of talent to go around on offense, even if they're not household names yet. While the Bulldogs' SEC talent may keep them in it for a while, I think OSU will pull away and win comfortably.
The pick: Oklahoma State 38-21

Temple (+30) at #14 Notre Dame
Why pick this game? Well, research shows 50% of my readership is Notre Dame football fans. Know your audience, folks. (Hi, Dad. Hi, Stan.)
The Irish begin this season still probably licking their wounds after being destroyed in the BCS title game by Alabama. The question is if the defense can replace the playmaking of Manti Te'o and the offense can replace the production of Everett Golson. I don't think victory should be in doubt, but Notre Dame tended to play down to lower competition quite a bit last year, although the opener against Navy was the exception.
The Irish should win easily, but I think asking a Tommy Rees-led offense to outscore someone by 30 is asking a lot.
The pick: Notre Dame 35-9

#1 Alabama (-19.5) vs Virginia Tech (in Atlanta)
The champs are here! We get our first look at the defending national champions and overwhelming favorites to do it again. While I always pick Virginia Tech to make some noise and be a player in the ACC, I can't have any faith in them against Nick Saban when he's had seven months to prepare. I don't care how many NFL players Alabama lost, the next crop steps in now.
The pick: Alabama 35-3

#5 Georgia (-1.5) at #8 Clemson

Tajh Boyd could start a 2013 Heisman campaign against
a young... but talented... Georgia defense.

Georgia fans are talking SEC and national title. If that's going to happen, it starts here. This the beginning of a brutal first month for Georgia that also includes South Carolina and LSU (both at home though). I think Tajh Boyd could emerge as the best NFL QB prospect in this year's class, and I expect a big game from him against a rebuilt Georgia defense.
Georgia's offense, though, is stacked: a seasoned veteran quarterback in Aaron Murray and two dynamite running backs. I think the Dawgs will put up a lot of points in a shootout win.
The pick: Georgia 45-42

#12 LSU (-4) vs #20 TCU (in Arlington, TX)
I like this game almost as much as Georgia-Clemson, but for different reasons. Not many people are picking LSU to win the SEC, and I think the Tigers love to be able to play the "no respect" card, something they haven't been able to play much under Les Miles. TCU, meanwhile, gets Casey Pachall back at quarterback after drug issues cost him most of his 2012 season. It's not a lock that he's starting, though. Gary Patterson has yet to say whether he's starting Pachall or Trevone Boykin (last year's starter). When he's right, Pachall can be a very good player, maybe the best in the Big 12. But, I have no idea what to expect from him after a year away. What really hurts TCU in this game is the suspension of Devonte Fields on the defensive line.. at least it should. It's almost looking like Fields may play after all. If he does indeed sit out, I expect LSU to take advantage and move the ball just fine. TCU is playing close to home and won't get embarrassed, but I think the Tigers will have too much.
What I would love to see, though: LSU down 4 with a few seconds left, facing a fourth-and-goal on the one... and Patterson sweating bullets as he thinks long and hard about sending Fields into the game.
The pick: LSU 24-17

#19 Boise State (+3.5) at Washington
This is the annual "Boise State tries to prove something out of conference" game. It's not exactly a top ten opponent, but it's obviously a challenge seeing as how Washington is a slight favorite. While I still think Chris Petersen is a fantastic coach, I think some of that Boise State magic that helped them win marquee games against Virginia Tech and Georgia has faded. Washington won't be taken by surprise at home.
Gus Johnson is calling the game, though. The Rule of Gus tells me it will be close.
The pick: Washington 24-23

#22 Northwestern at California (+6)
What's a picks blog without an upset pick? Northwestern has been getting a fair amount of preseason hype, and the Wildcats are becoming a nice program under Pat Fitzgerald. Cal is looking to rebuild under new coach Sonny Dykes, and they have an exciting freshman quarterback in Jared Goff taking over the offense. While Northwestern looks pretty legit and should compete in the Big Ten, I just see this as a trap: a west coast trip against a team unveiling a new wide-open offense. Upset.
The pick: Cal 31-30

Finally, the ridiculous line of the week: Oregon is -59 against Nicholls State. I feel for the Colonels because I covered them when I got my first job down on the bayous of Louisiana. I hope it doesn't get that bad, but I fear it might be. Good luck, NSU.

College football is back, everybody. Let's enjoy the ride. We'll be arguing about BCS standings before you can blink.

College Football 2013: Top 10 Games to Watch

The rebirth of my blog continues with the list of the top ten college football games I already have circled on my calendar... is that expression outdated? How about, the top ten games I have set an alert for on my phone? There we go.

10. LSU vs TCU, August 31

Casey Pachall returns for TCU after sitting out 2012.

I love great non-conference games right out of the gate. I'm curious to see what LSU looks like. The Tigers are usually at the top of the SEC, but aren't necessarily picked as a top three contender this year. TCU won't have suspended defensive end Devonte Fields, but I am curious to see how Casey Pachall plays after sitting out last season with drug issues. A win against a top SEC team would be a huge boost for TCU.

9. Georgia at Clemson, August 31
Another outstanding non-conference game the first weekend, and this one is between a pair of top ten teams. There's a chance this could be the eventual SEC champion against the eventual ACC champion. We have a long way to go there, but it should be great to see Aaron Murray and Tajh Boyd try to match each other throw-for-throw. It is, perhaps, the first showdown of the season between two Heisman contenders.

8. Texas A&M at LSU, November 23
I'm putting this game on the list under the assumption that Johnny Manziel is playing for A&M. Johnny Football in Death Valley? Yes, please.

7. Texas vs Oklahoma, October 12
I look forward to this game every year, as it's usually an early indicator of who the team to beat in the Big 12 is. Texas should expect to go into this game 5-0 (New Mexico State, at BYU, Ole Miss, Kansas State, at Iowa State). Oklahoma, on the other hand will either enter this game reeling or on fire. The Sooners are at Notre Dame then host TCU the two weeks before this game. If Oklahoma enters this game 5-0, they will certainly be a top ten team. The winner of this game vs. Oklahoma State instantly becomes my next game to watch in the Big 12, as that may decide the champion. OSU visits Texas November 16 and then hosts Bedlam December 7.

6. LSU at Alabama, November 9

LSU vs Alabama has become a regular must-see game.

This has been the must-see game in college football the past two years. LSU may not be picked quite as high as some other SEC teams, but make no mistake about it: the Tigers are very talented. When this game happens, LSU will be the best team Alabama has seen in almost two months.

5. Notre Dame at Michigan, September 7
How good are the Irish without Manti Te'o and Everett Golson? We'll find out early with a visit to the Big House. Michigan may have a few questions themselves, but Devin Gardner has been getting a lot of praise as he's taken over as the leader of that offense. Notre Dame's last game against Stanford could be very interesting depending what the teams' records are, but let's make sure the Irish are legit first. This game will be a nice early indicator.

4. South Carolina at Georgia, September 7
How brutal is Georgia's early schedule? After visiting Clemson, the Dawgs host South Carolina the next week then get a breather against North Texas before LSU visits. Even with the home games, that's as tough as a first month gets. All eyes will be on Jadeveon Clowney and how much he terrorizes Murray.

3. Ohio State at Michigan, November 30
Another game I look forward to every year. Ohio State's schedule is not all that daunting, as the Buckeyes' most significant road games before this one are at Cal and Northwestern. There's a good chance Ohio State enters the Big House 11-0 with a national championship berth on the line. Popcorn is ready.

2. Oregon at Stanford, November 7
Stanford has been getting some well-deserved press as the team to beat in the Pac-12. Getting this game at home helps. What LSU/Alabama has been to the SEC the past couple years, that's what this game is out west. The winner likely wins its division and a berth in the conference title game while the loser will have to hope for help.

1. Alabama at Texas A&M, September 14

Can Johnny Manziel take down Alabama again?
Better question: will he get the chance to?

I don't care what Johnny Manziel may or may not have done off the field, please let him play in this game. Don't college football fans deserve to see Johnny Football get another shot to take down the mighty Crimson Tide? If he doesn't play, this game might drop out of my top ten. If he does play, it's must-see TV. Besides the obvious drama of the game, this is by far the toughest game on Alabama's schedule. Look at it. I don't see another game before LSU in which Alabama will be favored by less than a touchdown. Yes, it's still the SEC and things happen, but Alabama has a very modest schedule by SEC standards and is likely to coast to the LSU game. That's why this game is so interesting: the unpredictability of College Station and Johnny Football could knock the Tide down a peg.

As we know, as the season goes along, other games will pop up as critical while some of these could fade in significance as they approach. Whatever happens, let's get college football going already.

College Football Freshmen to Watch

After being basically in hibernation for the summer, I've decided to revive my blog for college football season. I'll get it going by cross-promoting with my day job, producing a show called Sports Stars of Tomorrow.

The show focuses on rising high school stars who hope to be big names on the college and pro levels. In the past, the show has featured guys like Jadeveon Clowney and Andrew Luck.

For this post, I'll run down ten players we featured last year (my first on the show) who I think will make an impact in college football sooner rather than later.

10. Sefo Liufau, Colorado - The QB from Bellarmine Prep in Tacoma, WA, is my sleeper of this group. He may not have gotten a lot of hype in high school and won't get much more at Colorado, but I think he has the tools to be a very good college QB. He might start this season as a backup, but I think he'll be starting in Boulder soon enough.

9. Dymonte Thomas, Michigan - The Wolverines brought in a strong class that included Shane Morris and Ben Gedeon, but Thomas may be the guy who makes the earliest impact. The defensive back is working his way up Michigan's depth chart, and I think he'll see the field pretty early.

It's unclear how soon he'll play, but Max Browne will be a star.

8. Max Browne, USC - The only reason I don't have the 2012 Gatorade High School Football Player of the Year higher is because he's in a crowded QB situation. Browne has all the talent to start under center for the Trojans, and I'm sure he eventually will for at least two seasons. He's a smart, well-spoken kid with leadership skills and a great arm.

7. Joey Bosa, Ohio State - The son of an NFL player, Bosa has out-of-this-world athleticism for his size (6'5" 270). I'm not sure how much he'll play as a freshman on a national title contender like the Buckeyes, but I can't imagine there are too many guys on the roster with higher ceilings than Bosa. If Bosa adjusts quickly to the demands of the college game, he could play a decent role this year. I fully expect he'll be a household name among Buckeye fans before his days in Columbus are done.

6. Greg Bryant, Notre Dame - For all the talk about the Irish losing QB Everett Golson and LB Manti Te'o, don't forget the Irish graduated their two leading rushers: Cierre Wood and Theo Riddick. The window is wide open for a five-star back like Bryant to contribute early and often. Also watch for fellow freshman Jaylon Smith, who could help fill the void left by Te'o at linebacker. Insert your own joke about the void of Lennay Kekua.

5. Jared Goff, California - The freshman has already won the starting quarterback job for the Bears. His high school coach confidently called him an NFL quarterback. Maybe he's right. Goff has an NFL frame (6'4, 205) and has been praised for his accuracy.

4. Derrick Henry, Alabama - The record-breaking running back from Yulee, FL, will just be the next NFL back to come through Nick Saban's program. Ingram, Richardson, Lacy, and Yeldon have all played key roles in Alabama's three titles under Saban. This huge, powerful back will follow in their footsteps and do an outstanding job.

3. Robert Nkemdiche, Ole Miss - Everyone is picking this guy to be a star, and so am I. He's the next big thing at defensive end. After Clowney is done terrorizing SEC QB's, Nkemdiche may be the most feared pass rusher in college football.

I see big things ahead for Thomas Tyner at Oregon.

2. Thomas Tyner, Oregon - Here's where I go out on a limb a little, putting Tyner ahead of guys like Henry and Nkemdiche. The blazing fast running back from Aloha, OR, is a perfect fit for the Ducks. He may be behind De'Anthony Thomas and Byron Marshall on the depth chart, but that system has room for lots of athletes. I think Tyner is too talented to keep on the sideline too long. He'll earn his spot and make some plays as a freshman before eventually becoming a star in Eugene.

1. Su'a Cravens, USC - The do-everything star from Vista Murrieta, CA, will play defensive back at USC. The Trojans are hurting for depth due to sanctions, and talented freshmen like Cravens should see the field early and often. Cravens looks like a future NFL corner to me, and I think he'll play very well as a freshman.

Journalists are supposed to be unbiased, but of course I pull for the kids I have the pleasure of meeting while producing Sports Stars. Good luck to all the players who have been on the show.

I'll be back soon with a look at my games to watch for 2013.

Yasiel Puig and the All-Star Game

Does Dodgers rookie phenom Yasiel Puig belong in the All-Star Game? Well, before I decide, I guess I still have to figure out what the MLB All-Star Game is.

Dodgers rookie phenom Yasiel Puig has been amazing
in a month on the job, but should he be an All-Star?

Major League Baseball delivers quite a mixed message with its All-Star Game. Is it an exhibition? Because, it lets fans pick the starters and top pitchers still skip the game if they have a start the Sunday before the game.

Or does it "count?" We're still letting this game decide home field in the World Series, right? Sigh. That's long been a point of contention for me, but I'm trying to let it go.

Whether it's about the fans or about the World Series, my conclusion is the same: Puig should be in the game.

If it's all about the fans and who they want to see, it's pretty clear they want to see Puig. That will be made clear when he runs away with the game's "Final Vote." There's a buzz about this kid, and it's not just media hyping him up. He's been terrific. Hitting over .400 in his first month in the big leagues, he is a legit five-tool star who has in the inside track to the NL Rookie of the Year. Just like Bryce Harper last year, he's a phenom who the fans want to see.

If it's about getting home field in the World Series, then I think it's hard to argue that the NL team is better without him. If this is an important game that counts, do you or do you not want the hottest hitter in baseball on your roster? For the same reason that useful utility players like Ben Zobrist and Omar Infante can make the team, a red-hot hitter like Puig should be there if all you want to do is win.

Am I being a bit sarcastic with this blog? Maybe. I'm obviously leaving out what the All-Star game selections should be about: rewarding the most deserving players in baseball with an All-Star selection. Based on that and that alone, does Puig deserve to be there? That's tough to say, as there are some very good players who have been good for three months instead of one. I think it would be more fair to give the nod to one of those guys.

But there are other factors at play here. Whether it's the fans who want to see him or the NL team just trying to win the game, Puig should be in New York to satisfy them both.

The Smart Decision

I salute and respect Marcus Smart of Oklahoma State. He went against the trend of one-and-dones and is returning to the Cowboys, much to the delight of Stillwater.

Some people ripped him for passing up on the millions of guaranteed dollars, which is ironic since so many complain about the one-and-dones. I didn't rip him, but I certainly would have advised him to go pro since he was projected as a top three pick, if not number one.

College basketball fans should applaud Marcus Smart.

But, it was Smart's decision to make. College basketball fans should applaud and support him, because he's making the game they love better.

I was watching the ESPN 30 for 30 film Survive and Advance the other day. One thing that stood out to me early on in the film was the quality of college basketball in the 1980's, when everyone stayed in school. Ralph Sampson, Michael Jordan, Patrick Ewing, and Akeem Olajuwon all stayed in school for at least three years. Today, guys like that are almost all gone after a year.

I was jealous watching that. College basketball was much better in the 1980's because players kept returning to school instead of jumping too early to the NBA. We'll never get back to that, but it is refreshing to see a player like Smart stay in school, stay committed to the coach and program who gave him a free education, and to continue to improve at the college level before he's absolutely ready to be a pro.

Is it the right decision? Is it wrong? I don't know. Time will tell. All I know is it was Smart's choice, and I think he knows what he can handle. Even if he takes a step back as a sophomore (which I doubt, barring injury), he has two years after that to get back where he wants to be. Plus, I'm sure he'll have some insurance policy (like college football players often get) if disaster strikes and he suffers a horrible injury.

As loaded as the 2014 class is, I really think Smart could still be a top three pick next year. That's assuming, of course, he comes out next year. Maybe he stays in Stillwater even longer, and I think that would be awesome for college basketball.

My opinion really means nothing, but for what it's worth, I think most college players should stay the full four years like they did in the '80's, and only leave if they are projected as lottery picks (like Smart is). However, the decisions are theirs, not mine. Opinions like that mostly come off as selfish. As fans, sure, we want our teams to be good, so we want kids to stay in school.

If a kid thinks going pro early is the best for him, then good luck to him. I understand striking while the iron is hot. I just hope kids who leave early are listening to the right people. A lot of times, they aren't.

As far as Smart goes, I'll  definitely never blast a kid for staying in school. Smart will get his money one day, and I think he'll make a lot of it in the NBA when he is ready.

Oklahoma State is not my favorite team, but Smart is one of my favorite players. I love his heart, his fire, and how he selflessly helps his team win. Friends told me about how great he was in high school, and I was excited to see what he brought to the college level. He did not disappoint. When he's not playing one of my favorite teams, I pull for him to do well. I will especially do that next year, as he will be the one of the faces of college hoops. He'll raise the game's profile, and people will want to tune in to watch him every week.

Brittney Griner in the NBA? Nice thought, but no

Dallas Mavericks' owner Mark Cuban loves to stir things up, and he sure did that this week when he said he would consider giving Baylor women's star Brittney Griner a chance to make the Mavs.

Cuban is a smart guy, always looking to market his team and his league and open it up to new fans. I think this is mostly a marketing stunt, and he is just dipping his toes in the "Griner in the NBA" waters to see how it is received before he really moves forward with this. I don't think he or any other NBA person thinks Griner could make it in the NBA.

Could Griner make an NBA team? I say no way.
But, if an NBA team wants to let her try, go for it.

I certainly can't see her playing in that league. Does that make me a sexist? To some, maybe. I prefer to think of myself as a realist.

First, let's clarify how we answer "can she play?"

Could Brittney Griner make a small contribution? Maybe. Could she go around a screen, catch the ball with a little space and make a layup? Of course she could. There are several players in the WNBA who could do that: go into an NBA game, execute one play (drawn up for her) and make a wide open shot.

That's not what I'm talking about, though, when I ask "can she play?"

I'm not talking about executing one play and getting a basket. I'm talking about the next play, and the next one, and the next one. Could she defend? Could she take over a game? Could she get to a point where an NBA team says, "we could not have won this game without Brittney?" I say absolutely not.

I'm not knocking Griner's ability to play the game. I'm just calling for a little more respect for the guys who are in the NBA and for those in the D-League and college who are trying to make it. Griner is the most dominant women's player I've ever seen, but she would be in for a rude awakening if she took the floor against NBA players.

Think of the last player on the bench on any given NBA team. That guy was a star at his college, likely an all-conference player if not an All-American. He just can't crack an NBA lineup because there are more talented former college All-Americans ahead of him. That guy, though, is on the roster because his NBA team thinks he could be a contributor eventually and because he helps the team in practice. There are dozens more just like him in the D-League begging for a shot. Plus, there are hundreds more in college and overseas that are entering the 2013 NBA Draft. They all have more NBA potential than Griner.

Let's talk a little more logistics about Brittney Griner on an NBA roster: what would her position be? At 6'8", she is obviously a center in the women's game and a dominant one. She's not playing center in the NBA at 6'8". I think even playing power forward would be a stretch, because she's obviously thin compared to a 6'8" NBA player. She would have trouble fighting for space down low. The shot-blocking and rebounding that make her a great women's player would not even be a factor in the men's game.

So, does that mean you put her on the wing as a 3? Guys like LeBron James and Kevin Durant live out there. To be fair, I'll go a little farther down the NBA depth chart at the 3: guys like Gerald Wallace, Rudy Gay, and Kawhi Leonard live out there, too. Griner is not quick enough to guard those guys or create her own shot against them. Sorry. She just isn't.

UConn women's coach Geno Auriemma agrees with me. He called the idea of Griner in the NBA "absolutely ludicrous." It's not a knock on Griner, but if you want to put her up against the best athletes in the world, she simply isn't going to be half as great as she is playing against other women.

Now, back to my earlier point: Cuban is about marketing, and he's pretty open-minded. Would letting Griner take the floor for 10 minutes in a summer league game be a travesty? Probably not. She would sell tickets. People would watch out of curiosity. She'd probably have a tough time, and then say thanks for the opportunity and get ready to play in the WNBA. Let's be honest, that's where she will truly become a star and become the most marketable.

You'll notice Cuban chose his words carefully: "invite her to try out," not "sign her." He said "if she's the best player on the board," he would draft her. She will never be the best player on the board of a two-round NBA Draft.

If Griner doesn't mind being the center of a marketing ploy to sell summer league tickets and wants to see exactly how good NBA players are, go for it. After the tickets are sold and Griner sees exactly where she stands, she'll go to a league that needs her way more the NBA summer league: the WNBA.

The Big East is Dead... Long Live the Big East

What a win for the Catholic 7 this week. The departing Big East basketball schools are apparently not only breaking away in time for the 2013-14 season, but they are reportedly getting just about everything they want: the Big East name, a new TV contract, and maybe even Madison Square Garden as the home of its conference tournament. It's great because the Big East name will stay where it belongs: with schools who care most about basketball.

As I've said before, though, I will miss the Big East in its current form, and I do love rivalries. I hate hearing "this is the last time Georgetown and Syracuse will play." It won't be. At least, it shouldn't be. Once the dust settles, the bitterness fades and the fans clamor for it, the teams should play again.

I propose a replacement for the Big East-SEC Challenge: The Big East Memorial Challenge. Let's remember the great league the Big East was and keep the rivalries going.

Fans don't want to see their rivalries go away.

On one side, you have the Catholic 7, or the new Big East: Georgetown, Marquette, St. John's, Villanova, Providence, DePaul, and Seton Hall

And in the other corner, the Football Universities... or FU (no hard feelings, right, guys?): Syracuse, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Louisville, Notre Dame, Connecticut, and Cincinnati

Seven games, fourteen old conference rivals renewing acquaintances.

You could even go deeper and have the new schools join the fun. Butler, Xavier, Creighton, Saint Louis and Dayton (assuming they all join) face off with the likes of Rutgers, Boston College, Miami, Temple... and sure, USF, you can play, too.

Of course, my grand scheme of this challenge likely won't happen. My point is, though, that these teams should try to keep playing in non-conference games. Georgetown should keep playing Syracuse and Connecticut. I'd love to see Marquette continue to play Notre Dame and Louisville.

While I'm excited about the new Big East, I think it would be fun for college basketball fans to have flashes of the old Big East in the seasons to come.