Fine the Spurs? Don't you dare, Stern

David Stern says he's going to punish the Spurs for resting their star players on Thursday night in Miami. He says "substantial sanctions" are coming. I think that would be a substantial mistake.

David Stern is way out of line if he punishes San Antonio.

As the head coach, Gregg Popovich has the right to sit or start whomever he wants. It's not like this is the first time he's done this, either. He has routinely rested Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker over the past couple years. All this guy has done since becoming head coach in 1996 is make the Spurs one of the best franchises in the NBA (maybe in American pro sports) and won four NBA titles along the way. I think we can trust he is doing what is best for his franchise.

Ultimately, Popovich just wants his best players healthy for the playoffs, when the games really matter. Remember what happened last season? The Spurs gained momentum late in the year, passed the Thunder for the best record and top seed in the Western Conference and made a deep run in the playoffs. Only an amazing rally by Kevin Durant and company kept the Spurs from reaching the Finals. Still, Popovich's strategy to rest his stars throughout the 2011-12 season worked because his team was healthy and playing extremely well in June.

David Stern has no right to tell teams which players to start and sit. He can be upset about it. He can complain openly, but he cannot dictate who starts and he certainly should not fine a team for it. That's not his job. It is Popovich's job to decide what is best both short-term and long-term for the Spurs. History has shown he does that job quite well.

What if Stern forced the Spurs to play their starters and Tim Duncan went out there and got injured and missed two months of action? Then how would Stern look? This was the Spurs' fourth game in five nights. It made perfect sense to rest some guys. Granted, I'm not sure why 30-year old Tony Parker and 25-year old Danny Green needed a full night off, but I'm not the coach.

I'll also say that I don't get why Pop can't spread out the rest for his guys: rest Duncan on Wednesday, Ginobili on Thursday, etc. I'm also not sure why the guys couldn't at least be in the arena, maybe sign autographs for any fans who really wanted to see them or at least be there in case the Spurs had foul trouble or injuries and needed them. Again, though, I've never coached a game in my life. Popovich has four NBA championships.

If Stern is going to fine Popovich for the lineup he put out there for one game, shouldn't he fine the Wizards and Bobcats for the trash they put out there every single night? Now, those teams are punishing the fans.

I get Stern's disappointment. This was a nationally televised game between two great teams. He wanted the stars to come out. Maybe he should have made sure both teams had a couple days' rest before the game if it was really that important to him. Sure, if I was a fan at the game, I'd be bummed I didn't see Tim Duncan, but that's the breaks sometimes. The ticket you buy guarantees you nothing but a seat in the arena.

Popovich knows what he's doing. Let him coach his team.

Counterpoint: the news of the rested players and the Spurs' surprising play (they only lost by 5) actually made the game really exciting and a lot of people watched to see what happened. I bet the ratings were good by the end of the night.

Punishing the Spurs would open a big can of worms for the NBA. Will teams demand he punish teams for tanking late in the season to improve lottery odds? Will players demand that teams that have clinched playoff berths continue to play their starters late in the year? What if a star player and a coach are feuding and the coach sits that player? Can Stern step in and force him to start? No way.

Stern has done a nice job as commissioner, but he is really overstepping his bounds here. Leave the Spurs alone. Popovich knows what he's doing. Just look at those rings on his finger. No other active coach has more.

College Football Picks - Week 14

I had a great rivalry week as I went 7-3 on winners and a season-high 8-2 against the spread. Can I keep the momentum going in the final regular season weekend?

Doubtful.

I normally pick just ten games, but I'll pick every game that matters for the regular season finale.

Louisville +3 at Rutgers
Why it matters: Rutgers clinches the Big East's BCS bid with a win. A Louisville win would mean a tie at the top that would be decided by the BCS standings. That would mean Rutgers, Louisville, Syracuse, and maybe Cincinnati would look to the BCS rankings to decide who goes to the BCS, likely the Orange Bowl.
While I was high on Louisville (by Big East standards) earlier this year, the Cards have really fallen flat the last two weeks. Rutgers, though, looked awful against Pittsburgh last week. I'll take the Louisville offense against the Rutgers D in this one, but it won't be pretty.
The pick: Louisville 24-20

Cincinnati -5 at Connecticut
Why it (kinda) matters: Cincinnati could finish tied for the Big East championship if Louisville beats Rutgers. None of these teams, however, are in the BCS top 25. I would guess that in this scenario, Louisville would get the BCS bid. I don't think Cincy would have enough in its profile to have the highest BCS ranking, but I could be wrong. They'd get a sweet four-way tie championship shirt though... right? Plus, in two years, none of the teams they'd tie with would be in the Big East, so they could totally win it outright then.
The pick: Cincinnati 34-17

#21 Northern Illinois vs #17 Kent State +6

Led by 1,000-yard rushers Dri Archer and Trayion Durham,
the Kent State Golden Flashes could crash the BCS party.

Why it matters: The winner of this game not only gets the MAC championship, but also has a decent shot to finish in the Top 16 of the BCS standings. To remind you, any non-AQ champion that finishes in the Top 16 in the BCS and is ranked higher than an AQ champion (the Big East champ this year) earns an automatic BCS bid.
This possibility is especially true for Kent State, maybe not so much for Northern Illinois. These teams definitely want #16 UCLA to lose to Stanford, making some room to move up. NIU would also greatly appreciate #18 Texas (how are they that high??) losing to Kansas State and #20 Boise State falling to Nevada.
As for the game itself, both teams have very good rushing attacks, but NIU's superior defense should be the difference in a very close game.
The pick: Northern Illinois 33-30

#20 Boise State -9.5 at Nevada
Why it matters: Yes, Boise State can get into the BCS. Much like NIU, it's a long shot and they need some help, but the Broncos have a chance by winning in Reno. A win would mean Boise State would finish in a three-way tie with San Diego State and Fresno State for the Mountain West crown. Neither of those teams are ranked in the BCS. So, if by some chance Boise State moves up to 16, it would have the tie-breaker to earn the BCS bid.
I don't think a win will be enough to get the Broncos in the BCS, but Chris Petersen will have his guys ready. Boise was the overwhelming favorite to win the Mountain West, and  they'll play like it. Will this be Petersen's last game in Boise? I haven't heard his name connected to many coaching openings, but I personally think every AD should give him a call. If I'm Petersen, I think I've done all I can in Boise and I go to a major conference instead of going into this mess known as the Big East.
The pick: Boise State 49-24

Middle Tennessee at Arkansas State -10
Why it matters: It decides the Sun Belt championship, as both teams are 6-1 in the league. There are no BCS implications. I'll take Gus Malzahn's Red Wolves to win big before Malzahn's name starts popping up in some of these offseason coaching searches. (I'm not sure he leaves after one year, but you'll hear his name.)
The pick: Arkansas State 44-31

Central Florida at Tulsa -2
Why it matters: It's the Conference USA Championship game, no BCS implications. The winner is headed to the Liberty Bowl. I suppose it's worth noting (ironically in a blog that picks against the spread) that Tulsa was shaken a little this week when its athletic director was suspended after his name came up in a gambling investigation. He may be fired by the time this game kicks off, but I don't think that will affect the football team that much.
These teams met two weeks ago in Tulsa, and the Golden Hurricane won 23-21. I think Bill Blankenship has done a great job since taking over for Todd Graham two years ago, and I think his guys are ready for this. They'll put the distractions aside and take care of business.
The pick: Tulsa 27-21

#16 UCLA +8.5 vs #8 Stanford
Why it matters: It's the Pac-12 Championship. The winner is Rose Bowl-bound, and the loser is very likely out of the BCS since Oregon is too good to pass up for an at-large selection.
I'm not saying UCLA knowingly quit against Stanford, but I did say last week that Stanford had to win and UCLA did not. I thought the performances would reflect that, and they did in the Stanford rout. It's not intentional on UCLA's part. It's just human nature. A team with nothing to play for against a team with everything to play for is not going to perform as well. The Bruins will turn it up a notch this week, but I still don't think it will be enough against Stanford's defense.
The pick: Stanford 21-17


#18 Texas at #6 Kansas State -11.5

National title hopes are gone, but Snyder and Klein
can still bring Kansas State a Big 12 championship.

Why it matters: Kansas State clinches the Big 12 title with a win. They are currently tied for first with Oklahoma, but the Wildcats own the head-to-head tiebreaker. Texas is highly unlikely to get into the BCS, but a win here could get the Longhorns to the Cotton Bowl (where they would likely play Texas A&M). Kansas State is coming off a disastrous performance against Baylor, but has had two weeks to figure things out. Texas, quite simply, is not good. The quarterback play is a mess, and it's even worse with David Ash out. Kansas State will force turnovers and win easily.
The pick: Kansas State 38-17


#11 Oklahoma -6.5 at TCU
Why it matters: Oklahoma could win the Big 12 or at least solidify itself as a BCS at-large with a win. As long none of those non-AQ's sneak up to 16, Oklahoma is almost a lock to go to a BCS game (likely the Sugar Bowl). If Kansas State loses, the Sooners would win the Big 12 outright and be on their way to the Fiesta Bowl. So, yes, the Sooners find themselves in the position of cheering for Texas.
TCU played a great game against Texas. The Horned Frogs' D has really played well, but Oklahoma is not as inept at quarterback as Texas. On the contrary, Landry Jones has played some of his best football lately. I think he'll finish strong and get OU into the BCS.
The pick: Oklahoma 35-24

#13 Florida State -14 vs Georgia Tech
Why it matters: It's the ACC Championship and the winner heads to the Orange Bowl. Florida State had a rough day against Florida, but Georgia Tech doesn't offer half the challenge Florida did. The Yellow Jackets had a rough time against Georgia, and I don't think this one goes much better.
The pick: Florida State 35-10

#12 Nebraska -3 vs Wisconsin
Why it matters: It's the Big Ten Championship, with the winner earning a trip to the Rose Bowl. These two teams met earlier this year, and Nebraska started off slow only to rally to win 30-27. I think Nebraska is clearly the better team and will show up much more prepared against Wisconsin this time. The Badgers have improved, though, over the course of the season, but not enough to get to the Rose Bowl.
The pick: Nebraska 27-21

#2 Alabama vs #3 Georgia +7

Most people assume Alabama will win this game, but do not
sleep on Aaron Murray and this talented Georgia team.

Why it matters: pretty obvious, no? The winner is the SEC champion and goes to Miami to face Notre Dame for the BCS championship. Georgia hears everyone anointing Alabama the national champions before this game has even been played. If you look at Georgia's body of work, it's really similar to Alabama's. I'm not saying Georgia is better, but it's closer than most think. Georgia is playing close to home and will give Alabama all it can handle. For the sake of my family members in Georgia, I think it would be great to see the Dawgs win, but I think Alabama is just one score better.
The pick: Alabama 24-21 (ducks as my mom's family starts throwing things)

See you back here for the bowl picks.

College Football Picks - Week 13

Just an awful performance last week. It was a flop. I was 4-6 on winners, and a pathetic 3-7 against the spread. I'm not trying to be this bad, honestly.

I would be very thankful if I could just finish above .500 this week.

TCU +7 at #16 Texas
Have the Longhorns really turned it around, or have they just beat some weaker teams in the Big 12? Maybe a little of both? Believe it or not, Texas has a shot at the Big 12 championship if it wins its last two games (including Kansas State) and Oklahoma loses a game or two.
I don't think Texas will dominate TCU, because I think the Frogs' defense will show up for this one. I do think Texas will have just enough offense while TCU may not.
The pick: Texas 27-24

Georgia Tech +13 at #3 Georgia
Georgia has to be thinking about Alabama and a possible national championship berth, so it wouldn't be a shock to see the Bulldogs get a scare in a rivalry game. In the end, though, Georgia's defense should be enough to slow down the Tech option attack.
The pick: Georgia 31-21

#1 Notre Dame -6.5 at USC

If USC is going to ruin Notre Dame's dream season,
it will be this guy, not Matt Barkley, doing it.

So, Matt Barkley is apparently out for this game, which is too bad. People against Notre Dame (which, let's be honest, is everyone right now because of the BCS standings) would love to see USC bring ND back to the pack. I also think there's a part of every Notre Dame fan that would like to beat USC at its best and take down Barkley in his last regular season game. Oh well.
Can Notre Dame finish this off, or will the inevitable BCS chaos grab the Irish, too? The only thing I know about Max Wittek is that he's starting on Saturday at quarterback. I don't know what he'll be able to do against the Notre Dame defense. But based on what every other quarterback has done against Notre Dame, my guess would be "not a lot."
History indicates that USC will throw one more wrench in the BCS and bring the Irish back to the pack. Just when we think we have the BCS figured out, something crazy happens like it did last week. Everyone who is not a Notre Dame fan wants the Irish to go down, but I don't think Manti Te'o lets this team collapse after coming this far. The defense will be a nightmare for the young quarterback, and the Irish (I can't believe I'm saying this) will march on to Miami.
The pick: Notre Dame 24-17

#18 Rutgers +2 at Pittsburgh
Sneeze at Rutgers' schedule if you want, but the Scarlet Knights have played good defense and are 5-0 in the Big East while Pittsburgh is 1-4. While I don't expect many unbeaten seasons for Rutgers in the Big Ten, they'll get one step closer to one this week.
The pick: Rutgers 21-17

#19 Michigan at Ohio State -3.5

Braxton Miller is playing for an outside shot at the Heisman
and maybe even a split national title since OSU.

Every week, Ohio State has a small line, and every week I pick the Buckeyes. I'm not going against them now. People do realize that if Notre Dame loses, then Ohio State has a chance to claim the AP national championship, right? Michigan is banged up, and let's not forget Braxton Miller may try to make one last case to get invited to New York for the Heisman ceremony.
The pick: Ohio State 31-24

#5 Oregon -9.5 at #15 Oregon State
The Civil War doesn't mean quite as much as it would have a week ago. Oregon is now on the outside looking in at not only the BCS title game, but also the Pac-12 championship. The Ducks need to win and need a Stanford loss to get to play for a conference championship. Oregon will have a bounce back game, and I think the Ducks will try to run it up just to get some BCS style points. Let's be honest, they're going to do everything they can to convince voters to move them past all of those SEC teams in case Notre Dame loses.
The pick: Oregon 49-21

#4 Florida +7 at #10 Florida State
This game has serious national championship implications. If Florida wins, the Gators may very well meet the Alabama/Georgia winner (barring some very creative voting by people who do not want All-SEC again). Florida State may have too far to climb to get into the national championship, but I am curious to see exactly how high the Seminoles would jump if they got the win here. I still like Florida State's defense a lot (fifth in the nation in points allowed), and the offense isn't bad either (seventh in scoring). Florida's defense is just as good and maybe better, but the Gators' offense is inconsistent to say the least. I think that hurts them on the road.
The pick: Florida State 14-10

#21 Oklahoma State +7 at #13 Oklahoma

Bedlam did not go well at all for Jones last season.
He's coming off a career game against WVU, though.

Oh, Bedlam. What to think of this game? Oklahoma State has really found a groove offensively and should give Oklahoma a lot of problems. Landry Jones, though, is coming off an unbelievable performance against West Virginia. It seems crazy to think, though, that Bob Stoops could lose three games at home in one season. He had only lost three at home in his entire career at OU dating back to 1999 before this season began. I think it'll be close, but the Sooners will survive at home.
The pick: Oklahoma 38-35

#8 Stanford -2 at #17 UCLA
Stanford has to win this game to get to the Pac-12 Championship. UCLA does not, as the Bruins have already clinched the South with their win over USC. I think the performances will reflect that. Stanford will play inspired as UCLA looks ahead to the next week. The rematch in the championship game will be close, but I don't think this one will be.
The pick: Stanford 31-17

#12 South Carolina +4 at #11 Clemson
Once upon a time, it looked like South Carolina was bound for the BCS. It's unfortunate that injuries (and a brutal October schedule) slowed them down. The Gamecocks, though, have a defense that should challenge Clemson like ACC teams just haven't.
The pick: South Carolina 28-24

Have a happy Thanksgiving, everyone.

College Football Picks - Week 12

It wasn't the best of weeks last week as I went 6-4 picking winners and an ugly 3-7 against the spread. I knew I was throwing one away by picking TCU, but I didn't think it would get out of hand like that.

Unlike the Marlins, though, I'm not giving up.

I'll add this: props to Texas A&M. Many (myself included) thought the Aggies would get pounded in the SEC. Now, they're on the verge of a BCS berth. Unfortunately, most SEC teams are playing FCS opponents this week, so we'll focus this week's picks elsewhere.

Kent State at Bowling Green -2.5
It's a critical game in the MAC as Kent State (9-1, 6-0) could clinch a spot in the MAC Championship while Bowling Green (7-3, 5-1) is also bidding for the division title. A Bowling Green win would the Falcons would have the inside track heading into the final weekend and bring Ohio (4-2 in the league and visiting Kent State next week) back into the mix. The Falcons may have the best defense in the MAC, and I think it shows at home despite Kent State's strong rushing attack (15th in the FBS in rushing yards).
The pick: Bowling Green 28-24

Northwestern +7 at Michigan State
No team has its heart ripped out quite like Northwestern, which has a knack for losing leads late in the game. Will they finally hold on to one? Like I've said before, if they can get to 20, they stand a good chance to beat offensively challenged Michigan State. I'll hesitantly pick the Wildcats to get a nice W for a change.
The pick: Northwestern 24-21

#22 Rutgers at Cincinnati -6.5
Rutgers has a pretty record at 8-1, but they really haven't beaten anyone. Their best win was over Arkansas, and we all know by now about the mess that Arkansas is. Cincinnati has played better against a better schedule and will beat Rutgers at home.
The pick: Cincinnati 31-24

#12 Oklahoma -11 at West Virginia

If the Sooners win out, they should be BCS-bound.

Remember when it looked like the winner of the Kansas State-West Virginia game would win the Big 12? While it looks like that will be the case, it is amazing how far apart those two teams are now. West Virginia is in free fall, so much so that I worry about them being the one Big 12 win Kansas gets. But before that happens, though, they have to face Oklahoma. Landry Jones might have a career day against this defense. Look for OU to throw all day and be successful at it.
The pick: Oklahoma 56-28

#18 USC -3.5 at #17 UCLA
This one will decide the Pac-12 South champ. I think USC is in for quite a fight in this one, but I think Marquis Lee will make the difference with his big-play ability. USC will survive a shootout.
The pick: USC 49-42

#1 Kansas State -13 at Baylor
The Wildcats are so close to playing for a national title. I don't think their dreams come crashing down in Waco. Their defense is too good, and Collin Klein will keep this team moving forward. I think Kansas State's scare will come next week against Texas, not this week.
The pick: Kansas State 45-28

#13 Stanford +20.5 at #2 Oregon
Oregon is great, but Stanford will have the best defense the Ducks have seen this year. Stanford can slow this game down, and I think 3 touchdowns is a huge number against a team like the Cardinal. Stanford will hang around with Oregon, but the banged-up Ducks will pull away to remain unbeaten.
The pick: Oregon 42-31

#23 Texas Tech +10 at #24 Oklahoma State
Tech has fallen on hard times a bit, as the Red Raiders have lost two of their last three and almost lost to Kansas. I think they're due to turn it around, and they'll play better in Stillwater, but it won't be enough to win. OSU has quietly put together a solid season in the post-Weeden/Blackmon era. Had it not been for a blown call against Texas, OSU would be 5-1 in the Big 12.
The pick: Oklahoma State 38-31

Utah State at #20 Louisiana Tech +3

Colby Cameron might be the best QB you've never heard of.

It's a critical game with regards to the final WAC championship. Both teams enter this contest unbeaten in the league at 4-0. If Louisiana Tech wins, it sets up the possibility of a three-way tie as 4-1 San Jose State awaits the Bulldogs next week. If Utah State wins, that will all but give them the title since they play lowly Idaho (1-9) next week. I'm all for some championship drama, so I'll say Louisiana Tech pulls out the win behind another big game from Colby Cameron, who has still not thrown an interception this year. He has 27 touchdown passes to go along with 3,283 passing yards this year. Look for him to blow past the 3,500 mark this week on his way to what should end up as a 4,000 yard season (he has two games after this, assuming a bowl game).
The pick: Louisiana Tech 45-42

Ohio State +2.5 at Wisconsin
Wisconsin has improved since that rocky start, but I cannot believe they are a favorite against Ohio State. Remember: the Buckeyes are ineligible to receiving votes in the coaches' and BCS polls. However, they are sixth in the AP. 6! Sure, maybe Wisconsin will be tough at home, but I still expect the Buckeyes will run over Bucky.
The pick: Ohio State 33-24

I'll say one more thing about all those SEC teams playing FCS teams this week. Don't be shocked if these games are close for a while. Remember when Georgia Southern put up 341 yards of offense and was within 10 of Alabama at halftime last year? SEC teams treat these games for what they are: a break from the brutal SEC slate, and the FCS teams treat this game for what it is for them: their Super Bowl. Don't be shocked if Georgia Southern (8-2) scares Georgia for a half or Sam Houston (8-2) finds the endzone against Texas A&M. I fully expect all the SEC teams to eventually win by at least three touchdowns, though.

The Embarrassment That is the Miami Marlins

Everyone in the Marlins' front office owes the city of Miami an apology. What they are doing with this franchise is a disgrace.

I hope you enjoyed one year of Jose Reyes, Miami.

A few years ago, they convinced the city to fund the building of a new stadium, and Marlins Park opened this year. They went "all in" and spent a lot money last offseason to build a team worthy of filling the seats in their new park. The team was not as good as they hoped, and now they've had a fire sale. That is a AAA team in Miami right now, and the franchise should be ashamed.

The proposed trade that will send basically every notable player on the Marlins' roster except Giancarlo Stanton to Toronto in exchange for Yunel Escobar and prospects blows my mind. It tells me that the Marlins have no intention of competing this year or any year. They want to field the cheapest team possible and just hope the fans show up.

Spoiler alert: they won't.

To the loyal fans of the Marlins (I realize that's about 10 people), I feel bad for you. Fans deserve better than this. Sure, Miami is not the best city for a pro sports franchise. The fans aren't that loyal. Sure, if you put a winner out there, they'll fill the place up. But, if the product stinks, the city of Miami will disappear on you. I suppose you could say that for a lot of cities, but it seems to be especially true there.

But don't blame the fans for this. If baseball wasn't working in Miami, Jeffery Loria and Major League Baseball shouldn't have forced it. They should have moved the franchise. Where? I don't know. I'd give Charlotte, San Antonio, Louisville, Memphis, Nashville, Omaha, Oklahoma City, Las Vegas or even a redo in Montreal a shot. It's too late, now, though. The stadium is built and brand-spanking new. You should put a watchable product out there.

Fans are upset. Players are upset, and tax payers are upset. That last one is the biggest issue: people who really don't care that the team is there had to pay to build that fantastic new stadium so Loria could field an unwatchable product. It was once predicted that Miami would be in the World Series by 2015, but I don't know if they'll ever finish above .500 again with the current ownership.

Why would any half decent free agent want to sign with Miami now? Why would any talented young Marlins' prospect like Giancarlo Stanton agree to an extension? Even if they say "we're committed. We're seriously going to build now!" Why would anyone believe them? They said they were "all in" back in December 2011. They were bailing out by July and have hit rock bottom in November. Any free agent who signs in Miami will be going there because nobody else wants to sign him. Any free agents who are in demand will go to a franchise committed to winning, a franchise that they feel confident won't give up after four months of baseball.

I expect attendance in Miami to look something like this
in 2013 and basically every year until the team moves.

It's not like we've never seen this before in Miami, either. After winning the 1997 World Series, the then-Florida Marlins completely dismantled what was a powerhouse. Moises Alou, Bobby Bonilla, Kevin Brown, Gary Sheffield and Charles Johnson were all dealt within the following seven months.

They did a similar thing after winning it all in 2003. They traded Derrek Lee and let Ugueth Urbina and Ivan Rodriguez walk as free agents that offseason. Brad Penny was traded a few months later. They hung on to Josh Beckett for a few seasons before eventually trading him with Mike Lowell to Boston in 2005.

I can't blame the Miami fans for being apathetic towards this franchise. They keep building up winners then tearing them down. There are no iconic players that stay there for years that the fans can really get used to.

The team will claim it's the opposite: that the fans don't come out, so they have to keep rebuilding.

Whatever the case is, the fact is this: Major League Baseball does not work in Miami. No matter who is to blame, it simply doesn't work. It's just too bad they built that stadium. Now, they have to live with this mistake for decades as they stare at that all those empty seats.

College Football Picks - Week 11

I was just 6-4 on winners last week, but I had my best week yet against the spread, going 7-3. Ironically, all of my losers were in Texas, where I live. Go figure.

Iowa State at #17 Texas -10
Has Texas turned a corner with its win over Texas Tech? I doubt it. The 'Horns would still get crushed if they played Oklahoma again tomorrow. The question is if they'll have enough to beat Iowa State at home this weekend. I think they should be able to outscore the Cyclones in Austin. I still can't trust that defense, though. I think Sam Gordon could get a few points against those guys.
The pick: Texas 33-21

Wisconsin at Indiana +5.5
What if I told you the winner of this game could get to the Rose Bowl? Yep. With Ohio State and Penn State banned from postseason play, the winner of this game is in the driver's seat in the Leaders division. Wisconsin is 3-2 in the Big Ten while Indiana is 2-3. The only other teams in the division are 0-5 Illinois and Purdue. The winner of the Leaders division will obviously go to the Big Ten championship game, which decides the Rose Bowl participant.
Neither Wisconsin nor Indiana has an impressive win, but I give a slight edge to Wisconsin in an ugly game.
The pick: Wisconsin 16-13

#24 Northwestern +9.5 at Michigan
Remember when Michigan was a top ten team? Not so much now. It's hard to trust this team to break out and dominate Northwestern. It's also hard to trust Northwestern to go on the road and get a huge win that could get them back in the Big Ten title hunt. Michigan will win, but it won't be pretty.
The pick: Michigan 31-24

#9 Louisville -1.5 at Syracuse

Louisville hasn't played the greatest schedule, but
Teddy Bridgewater has the Cards unbeaten.

This line just seems way too small to me, even on the road. Louisville, while clearly not in the class of the top four teams in the BCS, is unbeaten and a clear class above the rest of the Big East. If he had any wins over significant competition, quarterback Teddy Bridgewater might be a dark horse Heisman candidate. He is completing 70% of his passes for 2,434 yards with 18 touchdowns to just 4 picks. He'll lead the Cards to victory by more than a field goal.
The pick: Louisville 35-24

Missouri at Tennessee -3
Well, Missouri has an SEC win. Tennessee does not. Derek Dooley may or not have to pack up his office at the end of the season. If he loses this one, though, that pretty much means the season finale between Tennessee and Kentucky will determine who finishes dead last in the SEC. If Tennessee drops this one, Dooley can probably go ahead and get those moving boxes. I think the Vols will step up at home and grant him a stay of execution.
The pick: Tennessee 33-27

#14 Oregon State at #11 Stanford -4.5
I look for a tough defensive battle in this one. The Cardinal has moved Kevin Hogan into the starting role, and he might not have to score too many points against Oregon State. The Beavers have played very well, but their schedule is getting tougher. This Stanford defense will be the toughest they've seen.
The pick: Stanford 21-14

#15 Texas A&M at #1 Alabama -13.5
I'll give Texas A&M credit. The Aggies are much better than I thought they would be, and it's largely because of Johnny Manziel. The freshman is great and may be in the Heisman mix by the time he's a junior. However, I do not think Texas A&M (or anyone for that matter) can win in Tuscaloosa. Alabama is on another level, and the Aggies' offense has been contained by the SEC elite (Florida, LSU). Alabama will not have a letdown.
The pick: Alabama 35-20

West Virginia +9.5 at Oklahoma State
I know West Virginia is struggling, but I was surprised that they are almost a 10-point dog against Oklahoma State, whose defense is not immune to the big play and still has a shaky quarterback situation due to injuries. I expect a shootout with OSU winning by a touchdown.
The pick: Oklahoma State 49-42

#21 Mississippi State at #7 LSU -15
Both of these teams are 7-2 in the SEC, but they're a very different 7-2. LSU still looks like one of the best teams in the nation while Mississippi State has yet to get a signature win. The Bulldogs won't get one in Death Valley. They got crushed 38-7 by Alabama, and I expect a similar outcome here.
The pick: LSU 31-14

#2 Kansas State at TCU +7.5

Will "Optimus Klein" play? Will he play well?
It will be interesting to see K-State without their leader.

Wisely, Vegas took a while to post a line on this due to the uncertain status of Collin Klein. Bill Snyder said he expected Klein to play, but he's pretty tight-lipped otherwise. I've heard it said: there are only two reasons to disclose injuries: to help your opponent and to help gamblers. So, I don't blame Snyder for staying quiet about it
Obviously Klein makes a HUGE difference, and I have no idea if he plays or how well. But, it's my brother's birthday, and he's a TCU alum. The BCS needs some chaos, doesn't it? The Frogs shock the world, overachieving on defense against a hobbled Klein and Trevone Boykin makes some big plays at home. Happy birthday, bro.
The pick: TCU 30-28

College Football Picks - Week 10

Well, after going 10-0 two weeks ago, I knew I couldn't do it two weeks in a row. Last week was nothing to celebrate as I went 5-5 on winners and 4-6 against the spread.

Before the season started, this was the week we circled as the one that could decide the national championship participants as USC/Oregon and Alabama/LSU had potential as national semifinals. That's not exactly true now, but those games could still have a big impact on the BCS picture.

Penn State -3.5 at Purdue
I doubted Penn State last week, and while I was right about them losing to a very good Ohio State team, I'll give Bill O'Brien credit. He's done a nice job with a depleted roster. He certainly deserves to be in the coach of the year discussion, as this team was once thought to be a 3-8 team. With a win this week, they will be a very respectable 6-4.
The pick: Penn State 24-20

Tulsa +9 at Arkansas

The Razorbacks' struggles have been well-documented. The fact that Tulsa is 7-1 really hasn't. The Golden Hurricane can absolutely win this game. Tulsa has plenty of weapons on offense, and if quarterback Cody Green returns from injury, I think TU can get the underachieving Hogs. I'll pick the upset.
The pick: Tulsa 31-28

#1 Alabama at #5 LSU +8

Will Alabama's title dreams "go to die" this week against LSU?

While it's not the battle of 1 vs 2 that some had anticipated in August, it's still a huge game. Alabama looks nearly unstoppable, but this is the one game on the schedule that might make you say "maaaaybe they slip up there."
Playing in Death Valley at night is a heck of an atmosphere, and you know that crowd will be rabid after the way last year ended. Plus, LSU fans certainly feel they are still in the SEC and national championship picture. With a win here, they absolutely are.
After the win over South Carolina, Les Miles said Tiger Stadium is where "championship dreams go to die." I don't think Alabama's title dreams will die. The Tide is too good, but they will get a good fight from LSU.
The pick: Alabama 17-10

Arizona State at #11 Oregon State -4
Well, the Oregon State Cinderella run hit midnight last week. But, the Beavers aren't going to completely fall off the map in the Pac-12. Playing at home, they can beat Arizona State. Sean Mannion simply turned the ball over too much on the road in his first game back from injury. He wasn't ready, and the Beavers are going to go with the healthy Cody Vaz this week. The mistakes won't be an issue at home.
The pick: Oregon State 24-17

#20 Nebraska +1.5 at Michigan State
If you can score 20, you can beat Michigan State. I think Nebraska can score 20. Gosh, are we REALLY still going to let the Big Ten someone to the Rose Bowl?
The pick: Nebraska 21-17

TCU at West Virginia -5

Saturday's meeting with TCU could be a tipping point
for West Virginia. A bounce back win or a crushing loss?

The two Big 12 newcomers meet. Remember when West Virginia was ranked in the top five a month ago? Two embarrassing losses later, the Mountaineers are now an afterthought in the league. Can the right the ship coming off a bye?
The problem for TCU is that the Frogs is that the back half of their schedule is a lot tougher than the first, and I'm not sure they will win another game. They looked tough against Texas Tech, but they really collapsed in Stillwater last week. Yes, West Virginia got horribly exposed, but I think Geno Smith will have a bounce back game after a week off.
The pick: West Virginia 49-38

Oklahoma State at #2 Kansas State -9
OSU did a nice job bouncing back after a slow start against TCU, but I can't believe that this game will be a one-possession game late. Kansas State is just on another level, and the Wildcats are at home. Optimus Klein will have fun against that OSU defense.
The pick: Kansas State 45-31

#23 Texas at #18 Texas Tech -6.5
I've lost all faith in Texas. The Longhorns are a mess. They should never need a last-second touchdown to beat Kansas. I think Texas Tech throws the ball all over the place, and Red Raiders' receivers slip through the bad tackling all afternoon in a lopsided win.
The pick: Texas Tech 49-28

#15 Texas A&M at #16 Mississippi State +7
I know the Bulldogs got crushed by Alabama, but doesn't everyone? I'm still not 100% sold on Texas A&M against the top of the SEC. Mississippi State is more middle of the road, but I think the Aggies will have their first experience of going on the road in the SEC and losing to a team they should probably beat.
The pick: Mississippi State 28-24

#4 Oregon -8 at #17 USC
This is another matchup we thought could be a national semifinal back in August. Now? Not so much. USC still has its eyes on the Rose Bowl, though. The Ducks, on the other hand, appear to be on a collision course with Alabama. The Oregon offense is explosive, but I don't think their defense gets enough credit. Oregon will show up on both sides of the ball and comfortably win at USC.
The pick: Oregon 42-27

Chief Concerns

Thursday night was the most public of the Chiefs' many humiliations. In primetime in front of a national TV audience, NFL fans were forced to watch what Chiefs' fans have been forced to watch all season: perhaps the worst team in the NFL. The way things are going, they could be approaching historic futility.

Think I'm exaggerating? This team won't go 0-16, but they could set some pretty awful marks that will stand a long time.

The Chiefs are a mess, and it won't get any better this year.

They have not had a lead in regulation yet this year. The only time they've had a lead was in overtime when Ryan Succop kicked a game-winning field goal against the Saints. Beyond that, we've played 32 quarters of regular season football, and the Chiefs have not led for one second. Just digest that. They haven't even gotten a field goal to go up 3-0 in the first quarter. No leads. Ever.

The Chiefs' turnover differential currently sits at -20 through eight games. Since 1970, only the 1989 Lions were worse at -21, and that was for the entire season. Could you imagine if KC keeps up this pace and finishes at -40?

The 2008 Lions went 0-16 and are widely regarded as the worst team in NFL history. They had 29 turnovers the entire season. The Chiefs have 28 through eight games this year.

The 2008 Lions were outscored 517-266, a difference of 251 points on the year. Halfway through the season, the Chiefs have been outscored 240-133. That's a difference of 107. Thus, KC is on pace to be outscored by 214 points. That's a little too close for me.

How did it get this bad this fast? Two years ago, the Chiefs were in the playoffs at 10-6. Last year, Kansas City was pretty bad, but rallied late to finish 7-9 and be in the playoff race with two weeks to play. The defense played well enough to give people reason to believe that this team could be a couple wins better this year and maybe challenge for the AFC West.

Not so much. This team is awful, and it's hard to fathom how it got this pathetic. A team that was a win away from the playoffs last year only lost a few notable players (Brandon Carr was really the biggest departure) in the offseason. They added depth the offensive line in Eric Winston, and got two Pro Bowlers (Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry) back from injury.

Yet, somehow, this team is a disaster. Coaching has to be part of the problem. Romeo Crennel was given the head coaching job because the players liked him and the team played better after he was named the interim coach late last season. After firing a guy like Todd Haley who rubbed everyone the wrong way, Romeo was the players' coach that some thought could lead this team. They were wrong. He hasn't made a difference. Last year's late surge was more a result of the players playing loose with nothing to lose because the wicked witch was dead (when Haley was fired). Crennel's coaching has been exposed this year in the Chiefs' sloppy play. The team is simply unwatchable. Losing is one thing, but they're never even in games and losing close battles. They're getting embarrassed week in and week out. That's on everyone: players and coaches, but especially those in charge.

What have you done, Pioli?

But the issue goes beyond Crennel, all the way to the top. Scott Pioli is under fire. He has put a bad team out there. Even though they did make the playoffs two years ago and were in the mix last year, I think many will agree that was smoke and mirrors: a weak schedule, a weak conference. Neither team was all that great. As the years go by, this team is made up more and more of guys Pioli has signed and drafted.

Chiefs fans are rallying to have Pioli fired. Quite frankly, he probably deserves it. It makes me wonder if he really did anything great in New England. Did he really make a lot of great decisions to help that franchise, or was he just a guy in the room while Tom Brady and Bill Belichick were out there winning games? The fact is he had a franchise quarterback and a great head coach in New England. He has neither in Kansas City.

He has followed the long Chiefs tradition of refusing to draft a franchise quarterback, too. The Chiefs haven't had a quarterback they drafted win a game for them since Todd Blackledge.

I don't want to sound like it's all on Matt Cassel, because it's not. He is not, however, a franchise quarterback. Giving Cassel a six-year, $62 million contract before he took a snap in Kansas City is one of Pioli's many failures as a GM. I could list more, but this blog is getting long enough. I will, say, though, that his decisions to hire Todd Haley and Romeo Crennel as head coaches are right up there, too. I know hindsight is 20/20 on some of these things like coaches and draft picks, but the GM still has to live with those consequences. It's part of his job, and he hasn't been very good at it.

Here's the sad part: we're only eight games in. There should be hope of a second half rally, but I don't even want one. This team is going nowhere this year, and I'm already thinking about the NFL Draft. If they win another game or two, I'm going to be concerned it pushes them down in the draft. It's too bad this year's draft class does not appear deep on quarterbacks. Kansas City almost has to put all of its chips in the Matt Barkley basket, because what's the next best option behind him? Geno Smith?

The season is a lost cause. The Chiefs should just admit that and start cleaning house, starting with Pioli. Chiefs fans are giving up and getting frustrated as it is. Just admit this team is done and make some moves that show them that the team is efforting to make sure 2013 will be much better.

It's honestly at the point that I don't even want to see this team win another game this season. I don't want to hear about the messages of "never giving up" and "you have to believe." This team has nothing to believe in. They stink, and it's only going to get worse this year. You can't go out and get a better quarterback or head coach in November. Chiefs' fans are now counting down until the offseason.

The better news: their next game is on Monday Night Football... in Pittsburgh. So, an even bigger audience can see how awful this franchise is right now.