College Football Picks - Week 10

Well, after going 10-0 two weeks ago, I knew I couldn't do it two weeks in a row. Last week was nothing to celebrate as I went 5-5 on winners and 4-6 against the spread.

Before the season started, this was the week we circled as the one that could decide the national championship participants as USC/Oregon and Alabama/LSU had potential as national semifinals. That's not exactly true now, but those games could still have a big impact on the BCS picture.

Penn State -3.5 at Purdue
I doubted Penn State last week, and while I was right about them losing to a very good Ohio State team, I'll give Bill O'Brien credit. He's done a nice job with a depleted roster. He certainly deserves to be in the coach of the year discussion, as this team was once thought to be a 3-8 team. With a win this week, they will be a very respectable 6-4.
The pick: Penn State 24-20

Tulsa +9 at Arkansas

The Razorbacks' struggles have been well-documented. The fact that Tulsa is 7-1 really hasn't. The Golden Hurricane can absolutely win this game. Tulsa has plenty of weapons on offense, and if quarterback Cody Green returns from injury, I think TU can get the underachieving Hogs. I'll pick the upset.
The pick: Tulsa 31-28

#1 Alabama at #5 LSU +8

Will Alabama's title dreams "go to die" this week against LSU?

While it's not the battle of 1 vs 2 that some had anticipated in August, it's still a huge game. Alabama looks nearly unstoppable, but this is the one game on the schedule that might make you say "maaaaybe they slip up there."
Playing in Death Valley at night is a heck of an atmosphere, and you know that crowd will be rabid after the way last year ended. Plus, LSU fans certainly feel they are still in the SEC and national championship picture. With a win here, they absolutely are.
After the win over South Carolina, Les Miles said Tiger Stadium is where "championship dreams go to die." I don't think Alabama's title dreams will die. The Tide is too good, but they will get a good fight from LSU.
The pick: Alabama 17-10

Arizona State at #11 Oregon State -4
Well, the Oregon State Cinderella run hit midnight last week. But, the Beavers aren't going to completely fall off the map in the Pac-12. Playing at home, they can beat Arizona State. Sean Mannion simply turned the ball over too much on the road in his first game back from injury. He wasn't ready, and the Beavers are going to go with the healthy Cody Vaz this week. The mistakes won't be an issue at home.
The pick: Oregon State 24-17

#20 Nebraska +1.5 at Michigan State
If you can score 20, you can beat Michigan State. I think Nebraska can score 20. Gosh, are we REALLY still going to let the Big Ten someone to the Rose Bowl?
The pick: Nebraska 21-17

TCU at West Virginia -5

Saturday's meeting with TCU could be a tipping point
for West Virginia. A bounce back win or a crushing loss?

The two Big 12 newcomers meet. Remember when West Virginia was ranked in the top five a month ago? Two embarrassing losses later, the Mountaineers are now an afterthought in the league. Can the right the ship coming off a bye?
The problem for TCU is that the Frogs is that the back half of their schedule is a lot tougher than the first, and I'm not sure they will win another game. They looked tough against Texas Tech, but they really collapsed in Stillwater last week. Yes, West Virginia got horribly exposed, but I think Geno Smith will have a bounce back game after a week off.
The pick: West Virginia 49-38

Oklahoma State at #2 Kansas State -9
OSU did a nice job bouncing back after a slow start against TCU, but I can't believe that this game will be a one-possession game late. Kansas State is just on another level, and the Wildcats are at home. Optimus Klein will have fun against that OSU defense.
The pick: Kansas State 45-31

#23 Texas at #18 Texas Tech -6.5
I've lost all faith in Texas. The Longhorns are a mess. They should never need a last-second touchdown to beat Kansas. I think Texas Tech throws the ball all over the place, and Red Raiders' receivers slip through the bad tackling all afternoon in a lopsided win.
The pick: Texas Tech 49-28

#15 Texas A&M at #16 Mississippi State +7
I know the Bulldogs got crushed by Alabama, but doesn't everyone? I'm still not 100% sold on Texas A&M against the top of the SEC. Mississippi State is more middle of the road, but I think the Aggies will have their first experience of going on the road in the SEC and losing to a team they should probably beat.
The pick: Mississippi State 28-24

#4 Oregon -8 at #17 USC
This is another matchup we thought could be a national semifinal back in August. Now? Not so much. USC still has its eyes on the Rose Bowl, though. The Ducks, on the other hand, appear to be on a collision course with Alabama. The Oregon offense is explosive, but I don't think their defense gets enough credit. Oregon will show up on both sides of the ball and comfortably win at USC.
The pick: Oregon 42-27