Wednesday, October 30, 2013

College Football Picks: Week 10

Okay, I finally got back on track a little. 8-2 on winners last week and a modest 5-4-1 against the spread, but hey that's above .500. I'll take it.

USC at Oregon State (-4.5)
While Oregon State was humbled last week against a strong Stanford team, USC has been humbled all year. The Trojans offense will have trouble keeping up with the nation's leading passer, Sean Mannion.
The pick: Oregon State 36-24

Virginia Tech (-5) at Boston College
After a stunning loss to Duke last week, I'll take the Hokies to regroup against BC.
The pick: Virginia Tech 24-17

Pittsburgh at Georgia Tech (-9.5)
Yeah, I guess you can tell I'm not putting much effort in this week. Busy week at work. Tech wins. Sure.
The pick: Georgia Tech 31-21

Tennessee at #9 Missouri (-11)
After the Vols were crushed by Alabama, Tennessee offensive lineman Tiny Richardson said "We'll beat Missouri. I promise you that."
Forgive me if I don't agree. Yes, Mizzou is coming off another all-too-familiar soul-crushing loss. The Tigers, however, still control their own destiny as far as the SEC East is concerned. They won't let that opportunity come crashing down at home to a Tennessee team that will be starting a freshman QB in Joshua Dobbs who has thrown 12 passes all season, all of them last week. Missouri may have another soul-crushing loss coming, but I don't think it's this week.
The pick: Missouri 35-17

West Virginia (+13) at TCU
I don't mean to sound like I'm bashing TCU, because I have been down on (and right about) them lately. But the Frogs being a 13 point favorite with their struggles on offense is surprising to me. With Casey Pachall back, maybe they find some rhythm, but I don't think it will be enough to light up the scoreboard. They should win, but I don't expect it to be easy.
The pick: TCU 23-14

Georgia (-2.5) vs Florida (in Jacksonville, FL)
Two teams that are struggling on offense: one is missing its quarterback and the other is missing everyone except its quarterback. Considering where they were in September, it's hard to believe these two are unranked. This one won't be pretty, but I think Florida's offensive problems are slightly worse. Todd Gurley might return for Georgia, and he would make a huge difference.
The pick: Georgia 24-20

#7 Miami at #3 Florida State (-22)
Florida State already destroyed one top ten team, and that was on the road. The Seminoles know they need style points to jump Oregon, and they will take the chance to run up the score if they can. I can't go against this team at all at home.
The pick: Florida State 49-24

#21 Michigan (+4.5) at #22 Michigan State
While I hesitate to go with this inconsistent Michigan team, the Wolverines should be fresh after a week off. MSU has gained some momentum with wins against the lower half the Big Ten, and this is their toughest game so far. For what it's worth (and that's not much), Michigan rolled over Notre Dame while the Spartans struggled in a 17-13 loss. While Michigan looks uninterested against Akron and Connecticut, the Wolverines will get up for their rivals.
The pick: Michigan 33-30

#11 Auburn (-9.5) at Arkansas
Auburn hits the road for a trap game with Arkansas. Auburn has survived tough games with Texas A&M and Ole Miss in the SEC to stand at 3-1 while Arkansas sits at 0-4. Yes, the Hogs have had a tough slate (A&M, Florida, South Carolina, Alabama), but the Hogs were clearly a step behind the SEC's best. I think they will be again this week.
The pick: Auburn 35-24

#18 Oklahoma State (+1.5) at #15 Texas Tech
The Red Raiders came up short in a chance to prove themselves last week in Norman. They get a shot to stay in the Big 12 race this week at home. While the Cowboys have played very well against Tech in recent years, those weren't Kliff Kingsbury's teams. Despite the fact that both teams are juggling quarterbacks, they both score a lot. Look for a lot of points in this one, but I just have a little more faith in OSU.
The pick: Oklahoma State 42-41


Monday, October 21, 2013

College Football Picks: Week 9

It was Upset Saturday. And I was pretty upset. 3-7 on winners AND against the spread. Awful. I'm at the point where I feel like if I pick the Denver Broncos to cover 14 points against UConn, the Huskies would win in overtime. I guess the silver lining is that 3-7 against the spread was an improvement from the previous week.

So, take these picks, do the opposite in Vegas, and you'll have a great weekend.

Boise State at BYU (-7) (Friday)
I'm still not a buyer on the Broncos. In a Friday night road game, I'm even less inclined to believe. They're simply a decent team in the Mountain West. Not much more. I'll take BYU's rushing attack.
The pick: BYU 31-21

#9 Clemson (-13) at Maryland
Both of these teams know what it's like to be absolutely embarrassed by Florida State: a combined 104-14 destruction. Northwestern and Washington have shown me the last two weeks that teams don't play well after crushing losses. Will I learn my lesson with Clemson?
Nope. Come on, Clemson's too good to completely tank... right? Right??
The pick: Clemson 38-24

#21 South Carolina at #5 Missouri (-3)
Mizzou just keeps winning. A win over South Carolina
this weekend almost locks up the SEC East for them.
Alright, Mizzou. I give up. I'm out of reasons to doubt this team. Maty Mauk was impressive filling in for James Franklin, and now the Tigers have a home game against South Carolina, a team that may or may not be without QB Connor Shaw. Mizzou will stay interesting in the SEC. A win here wouldn't clinch the SEC East for the Tigers, but it would mean only a horrible collapse would keep them out of Atlanta.
The pick: Missouri 38-30

#12 UCLA at #3 Oregon (-21)
Back-to-back road games at Oregon and Stanford shouldn't be allowed, but that's what UCLA is faced with. The Bruins were humbled last week at UCLA, and now they have to somehow rally and slow down the nation's most exciting team. The line seems about right. Oregon should win easily, but maybe UCLA finds a way to stay within three touchdowns.
The pick: Oregon 42-23

Utah (+7) at USC
Can the team that upset Stanford go into L.A. and defeat the Trojans? Maybe. USC's offense looked pretty bad last week, and it's not getting any better this season. USC should still win, but I predict it will be ugly.
The pick: USC 20-17

#10 Texas Tech (+6.5) at #15 Oklahoma
Texas Tech has scored a lot of points against some mediocre opponents. The offense is impressive. No doubt about that. Can they take down the inconsistent Sooners in Norman? Oklahoma didn't look so great  last week. If OU can control the clock and run the ball, then the Tech offense won't be able to light up the scoreboard. The Red Raiders will stay close, though.
The pick: Oklahoma 30-28

Texas (+1.5) at TCU
Case McCoy had the line of the week. When asked why TCU is favored, he replied, "I guess because I'm playing quarterback, right?"
As much as people (myself included) rip on McCoy for mediocre and sometimes awful play, he has come through in some huge games, most notably this year's win over Oklahoma and the big finale against Texas A&M. This game isn't THAT big, but it would keep Texas tied for first in the Big 12.
While TCU's defense should continue to play well, I still have concerns about the Frogs' offense. I just don't think they can score with the personnel they have now. Texas may not light it up either, but they'll put enough points up to win.
The pick: Texas 28-24

#6 Stanford (-5) at #25 Oregon State
This man leads the nation in passing. Can he beat Stanford?
Everyone forgot about Oregon State after the season opening loss to Eastern Washington. All the Beavers have done since is win six straight and lead the nation in passing yardage. Sean Mannion is a dark horse Heisman candidate with 2,992 yards passing and 29 touchdowns so far. He won't get to New York, though, without winning some big games. This is his chance.
Stanford, though, redeemed itself last week with an impressive defensive showing against UCLA. They'll put the hurt on this high-powered Oregon State offense this week.
The pick: Stanford 35-28

Tulsa at Tulane (+3.5)
Did you know Tulane is tied for first in Conference USA? Can you even name every team in C-USA? Me neither. They're actually a home underdog against a Tulsa team that hasn't been quite as impressive on offense as the TU faithful had hoped before the season. Tulsa' win last week at UTEP gave them some hope. Maybe they'll take another step forward this week, but expect a close game.
The pick: Tulsa 34-31

Penn State at #4 Ohio State (-14.5)
Penn State got a nice win over a struggling Michigan team, but this week they take on a much stronger team on the road. Not only that, Ohio State is probably tiring of hearing how they need at least two teams ahead of them to lose to have any shot at the national title (which is probably true). The Buckeyes might try to run up the score if possible to win style points. I don't think Penn State will let it get that ugly, but I do expect a comfortable Buckeye win.
The pick: Ohio State 38-21

Finally, a game I'm not picking but curious how bad it gets: Baylor is at Kansas this week. That could be 84-0 if Art Briles wants it to be.

Wednesday, October 16, 2013

College Football Picks: Week 8

Last week was pretty disastrous for yours truly. I went 5-5 on winners, and Jim Mora best summed up my performance against the spread: 2-8! Yuck.

I drop to 52-18 on winners and (gulp) 33-35-2 against the spread. Not good.

Here comes a bounce back week... I hope.

UCF at #8 Louisville (-12.5) (Friday)
UCF is a good team with a pretty decent offense, but I stand by my opinion that Louisville is two touchdowns better than anyone else in the AAC. If this game was in Orlando, then maybe it could be a trap for the Cards. It's not.
The pick: Louisville 49-28

#5 Florida State at #3 Clemson (+3)
Can Jameis Winston leap Florida State into the national
title discussion with a win at Clemson?
It's one of the key games that will shape the national championship picture. The winner of this game is likely to be number 3 behind Oregon and Alabama when the first BCS standings come out. Despite how great Jameis Winston has been for the 'Noles, I'm still a little surprised to see Clemson as a home underdog. The Tigers already beat one top five team at home this year, and I think they'll pull it off again.
The pick: Clemson 35-34

#16 Texas Tech (-6) at West Virginia
I'm still not sure how exactly West Virginia beat Oklahoma State, because I don't see much in the Mountaineers' offense. Maybe lightning strikes twice at home and they surprise Texas Tech, but I'll pick the Red Raiders' offense to run away with this one.
The pick: Texas Tech 45-24

#11 South Carolina (-7.5) at Tennessee
With Jadeveon Clowney back, South Carolina woke up in a big way at Arkansas. I expect another impressive road win this week as SC has to consider itself right in the mix for the SEC East title now that Georgia is struggling. Plus, South Carolina gets Missouri (without James Franklin) next week and hosts Florida in November.
The pick: South Carolina 38-24

#20 Washington (+3) at Arizona State
So, Washington really got put in its place last week against Oregon. That happens to a lot of teams that play Oregon. After that experience, I ask the same thing I asked about Northwestern after that crushing loss to Ohio State: is this team too heartbroken to rebound or can it move forward? I was way off when I said I thought Northwestern would be okay. I hope I'm not wrong on the Huskies. Arizona State is a tough opponent, but I still think Washington is a talented team.
The pick: Washington 31-30

#22 Florida (-3) at #14 Missouri
Good news, Missouri: you're leading the SEC East.
Bad news: You have to maintain that lead without Franklin.
Yes, Georgia had injuries, but Missouri's win in Athens was still impressive. The Tigers' offense was clicking, and they made enough plays on defense to win. Unfortunately, Missouri now faces what Georgia did: an important home game against a ranked team while missing a key piece on offense. QB James Franklin is out at least a few weeks, and Florida's defense should take advantage.
The pick: Florida 24-20

#6 LSU (-8) at Ole Miss
Look for a lot of points in this one. LSU's offensive is talented, and Ole Miss is dangerous at home. The Rebels almost took down Texas A&M last week, and they get another tough draw this week. Ole Miss may be a little spent after a tough loss last week, and LSU will get its offense going again after a struggle against Florida.
The pick: LSU 42-31

TCU at #21 Oklahoma State (-7.5)
Blame injuries, off the field stuff, bad luck, whatever. The cold hard fact is that TCU has yet to play really well in the Big 12: 5-7 after a year and a half. That's not awful, but it's worse than the Frogs had hoped for. I think TCU will improve and eventually be a solid team in the conference, but I don't think it happens this week. The defense is pretty talented, but the offense will have a tough time keeping up with Oklahoma State in Stillwater.
The pick: Oklahoma State 42-33

#9 UCLA (+6) at #13 Stanford
Brett Hundley could cause a lot of problems for Stanford.
Stanford was stunned at Utah last week. While I still think the Cardinal are BCS good, I also think UCLA may be. Stanford has a great defense, but I'm concerned that offense, while good, may not be explosive enough. On the other side, I love what I see from UCLA's Brett Hundley. I think UCLA gets a big win this weekend and puts themselves in the BCS - and maybe national title - conversation.
The pick: UCLA 31-28

USC at Notre Dame (-3)
It's the first big test for USC interim coach Ed Orgeron, who got a win against Arizona in his debut. While I expect the Trojans to continue to play better with Kiffin gone, I think the challenge in South Bend will prove too much. Notre Dame's defense will make enough plays to hold on for a win.
The pick: Notre Dame 38-34


Wednesday, October 9, 2013

College Football Picks: Week 7

If you want 8 out of 10 football picks, I'm your guy. I went 8-2 for the fourth week in a row on winners. I'm sitting pretty at 47-13 on winners this year.

If you want great results against the spread, run away. I went a lousy 4-6 there to drop to 31-27-2. Ohio State's wild last second cover against Northwestern cost me a .500 week. But it cost other people a lot more. Oh well. On to this week's picks.

Arizona at USC (-6) (Thursday)
After a week off, the Trojans take the field with interim head coach Ed Orgeron. I'm not sure if the former Ole Miss head coach will fix anything or give the team any energy, but I don't think losing Lane Kiffin can hurt USC at all. Arizona at home is a very winnable game, and USC should be fine.
The pick: USC 27-17

Texas vs #11 Oklahoma (-14)
Could this be the end for Mack Brown?
Or could the shock us all with a win?
It's Mack Brown's last stand, and I think everyone knows it. Even Mack. I joked over the weekend that they couldn't set this line high enough for me. They didn't. Texas has had some its worst losses in this game under Brown (and against Stoops, of course): 63-14 in 2000, 65-13 in 2003, 55-17 in 2011 and 63-21 last year.
I think this year's Texas team is worse than any of those teams, and the Longhorns will be without starting quarterback David Ash. I asked a friend recently - a big Texas fan - what has gone so wrong for Mack Brown. He said Brown's biggest sin is that he is routinely outcoached by Stoops in this game and fails to adjust to the new wrinkles Oklahoma annually brings while also failing to bring any new wrinkles of his own. Texas fans are hoping freshman QB Tyrone Swoopes could be that x-factor. I don't see it.
OU under Stoops always gets up for this game. Texas under Brown has been hit or miss. Losing this game is one thing. Routinely being embarrassed by your powerhouse neighbors to the north in front of dozens of high-profile recruits is why Texas fans hate this game so much lately.
I fully expect Oklahoma to blow past this reeling Texas team and make Brown's exit from Austin all but guaranteed.
The pick: Oklahoma 56-13

#9 Texas A&M (-6) at Ole Miss
There's some upset potential here for A&M, because Ole Miss certainly has some talent. The problem, as we've discussed before, is that their talent is young. Things didn't go well for the Rebels against Alabama, and I don't think they'll go well here. While Ole Miss will score some points at home off that A&M defense, Manziel and the Aggies will pull away for the win.
The pick: Texas A&M 44-31

#5 Stanford (-9) at Utah
Possible letdown for Stanford? After escaping Washington last week, the Cardinal hit the road to take on a Utes team that's had a few extra days to prepare after a Thursday game.
That said, I (like many) believe Stanford is BCS-bound. They have some injuries - real or not - so that may slow them down, but I don't think the Cardinal will have too much trouble with Utah.
The pick: Stanford 38-24

#25 Missouri at #7 Georgia (-8)
A fully healthy Georgia team blows out Missouri in Athens, but the Bulldogs have been devastated by injuries recently. Three key players on offense are now out for the season (two last week plus Malcolm Mitchell), and Todd Gurley is still questionable with that ankle and Michael Bennett is also out for this game.
Georgia's defense, while not outstanding, is not missing the type of personnel that the offense is. Georgia's offense should keep Missouri from blowing up like it did against Vanderbilt last week. The question is if Aaron Murray and the Dawgs will score enough points. I think they will, but it might not be pretty.
The pick: Georgia 31-21

#17 Florida at #10 LSU (-7)
Tyler Murphy gave Florida a spark. Can he win in Death Valley?
Speaking of SEC teams hurt by injuries, the Gators are missing key players on both sides of the ball, including starting QB Jeff Driskel. Tyler Murphy played well in his place against Arkansas, but this trip to Baton Rouge will really test him and Florida. LSU is one of the top teams in the country, and the Tigers have their eyes on the SEC Championship (even if everyone assumes Alabama will win the SEC West over them and Texas A&M). I'm expecting an impressive effort from an always-improving Zack Mettenberger and LSU.
The pick: LSU 35-17 

#2 Oregon at #16 Washington (+14)
Even in defeat, Washington proved last week that it is a legit threat to get into the BCS. The Huskies went toe-to-toe with one of the nation's elite on the road and almost got a victory. Now, however, they face a critical game with Oregon. They need this win or the BCS is likely out of reach. A 14-point spread against a legit top 15 team at home seems like a lot, but maybe not against a team like Oregon.
The uncertain status of D'Anthony Thomas has me concerned for the Ducks, though. Their high-powered offense should be enough to get a win, but it won't be easy. Physical teams like Stanford and SEC opponents have slowed down Oregon in the past. The Huskies will hang around.
The pick: Oregon 38-31

#19 Northwestern (+10.5) at Wisconsin
Speaking of teams who looked great in defeat, Northwestern almost took down mighty Ohio State last week. The question now: are they confident or devastated moving forward? I don't think Pat Fitzgerald will let his guys be mentally weak. Vegas, however, seems to think Northwestern is in for a beating.
I not only think the Wildcats will hang with Bucky at Camp Randall, I'll take the Wildcats for an upset win, which would be their first in Madison in 13 years.
The pick: Northwestern 31-28

#14 South Carolina at Arkansas (+6)
Will Clowney be on the field or sideline this week?
South Carolina should be on upset alert. Going on the road with the apparent turmoil surrounding Jadeveon Clowney's willingness to play? Dangerous. Unfortunately for Arkansas fans, I don't think Arkansas is quite good enough to take down this SC team. They may hang around, but South Carolina will win close... and ugly.
The pick: South Carolina 27-24

#18 Michigan (-2.5) at Penn State
While the Wolverines had some close calls in September, they are still unbeaten. Penn State isn't, and the Nittany Lions are coming off a rough loss to Indiana. After a couple close calls, Michigan woke up a little and blew past Minnesota. The line seems low to me, and I think Michigan will keep improving leading up to the big rivalry game with Ohio State.
The pick: Michigan 35-27


Tuesday, October 1, 2013

College Football Picks: Week 6

No, my blog hasn't been shut down. I'm back at it.

I'm nothing if not consistent. Another week of 8-2 on winners. That's three in a row. The spread was tricky because Vegas nailed two on the button, resulting in two ties. So, I was 5-3-2 there.

Texas (-9) at Iowa State (Thursday)
Strange things can happen in Ames, especially at night games. Texas and Mack Brown, though, have their backs against the wall. They hear the calls for change and that people have lost faith in the program. With Oklahoma looming next week, Texas can't afford to be caught looking ahead. Being a Thursday night game and considering how these two teams have looked this year, I think there's a chance this game is very sloppy. In the end, though, Iowa State should make a few more mistakes and Texas will pull away late.
The pick: Texas 27-17

#12 UCLA (-5) at Utah (Thursday)
I know Utah can be a tough place to play, but this line seems really low to me. UCLA looks like a legit top 15 team to me, and Utah seems kind of "middle of the pack in the Pac-12." The Bruins should be just fine on this trip... I think. Thursday night games are tricky. Still going with my gut.
The pick: UCLA 35-17

Georgia Tech at #14 Miami (-5.5)
Miami looks to be the top contender to win the ACC Coastal division. This is a chance to prove it. Georgia Tech was not impressive last week at home against a Virginia Tech team that I assumed had taken a big step back. Maybe I was wrong about VT, and maybe I'm wrong about Miami; but I think the Hurricanes will make a solid statement at home.
The pick: Miami 38-21

#6 Georgia (-10.5) at Tennessee
After one of the biggest wins of his career, Aaron Murray
needs to avoid a letdown this week at Tennessee.
There is some serious letdown potential here for Georgia: going on the road after escaping a tough (yet overall successful) first month of the season. Georgia now appears to have a very manageable road to Atlanta, where a win in the SEC Championship may mean a ticket to the National Championship Game.
But they still have to win every game between now and then. The Bulldogs may be without Todd Gurley, who is day to day with an ankle injury. Even without him, Georgia's offense is explosive and loaded with talent. I don't think Tennessee, even at home, will be able to keep up.
The pick: Georgia 42-21

TCU (+10.5) at #11 Oklahoma
Although it was against a bad SMU team, TCU looked to finally hit its stride last week. Unfortunately for them, Oklahoma is also getting better. Blake Bell's confidence is growing, and it may continue at home.
TCU, though, won't get embarrassed. The Frogs will play well in this game, so I'll take the 10.5 points. I just think Oklahoma is one possession better.
The pick: Oklahoma 31-24

Missouri at Vanderbilt (-2)
It's the last time we can say it: James Franklin vs. James Franklin. The Missouri QB is a senior, and... well... with USC (and maybe Texas) being open, who knows how long Vanderbilt will have its coach. Believe it or not, Mizzou is the only unbeaten team in the SEC East, but this is the Tigers' first SEC game of the season. While Mizzou has a future NFL receiver in Dorial Green-Beckham, Vanderbilt's Jordan Matthews looks pretty tough to me. He may outshine the highly-touted DGB in this one. I'll take the home squad.
The pick: Vanderbilt 42-35

#15 Washington at #5 Stanford (-7)
While most people assume the Stanford/Oregon winner will win the Pac-12, this is a huge opportunity for Washington to make us rethink that. It's the beginning of a brutal back-to-back for the Huskies: at Stanford this week and home for Oregon next week. Two wins will have people in Seattle talking BCS. Two losses will keep the Huskies a notch behind the two elite programs out west.
Stanford just looks so tough to me, and I think the Cardinal will get better and better. We even got a glimpse of Barry J. Sanders last week. Washington will play well, but Stanford will play better.
The pick: Stanford 40-31

Notre Dame vs. #22 Arizona State (-5.5) (in Arlington, TX)
Notre Dame will be rocking some fancy Shamrock
Series uniforms in Texas. How will the offense look?
Arizona State put the final nail in Lane Kiffin's coffin at USC, and it's no surprise to see that offense as a favorite against Notre Dame. The Irish offense has yet to look all that impressive. We did see Andrew Hendrix play more at QB last week, and I think that's just the beginning of Brian Kelly's moves at quarterback.
In Tommy Rees's defense, it's not all his fault. The defense definitely misses the seniors from a year ago.
I'm excited for this game, though, because I'll be there. I'll be tailgating - peacefully - and I'm hoping to see a good game. I'm trying to come up with a logical reason why Notre Dame will win. I'm struggling to come up with one. Barring a breakthrough on both sides of the ball for the Irish, I think Arizona State's offense will be too much.
The pick: Arizona State 38-31

West Virginia (+27.5) at Baylor
After looking like they might finish right down there with Kansas in the Big 12, West Virginia showed signs of life last week with a nice win over Oklahoma State. The Mountaineers may have found their QB in Clint Trickett.
Baylor's offense is explosive and has put up video game numbers this year. The Bears' competition, however, has been lousy. This is step up, but I'm not sure how much.
Look for WVU to be efficient on offense and keep that Baylor offense on the sideline, but it won't be enough. The Bears will win at home, but not by four touchdowns.
The pick: Baylor 42-24

Ohio State at Northwestern (+7)
Northwestern fans have had this game circled on the calendar, and so have fans who don't like Ohio State. This and the Michigan game are the only two games left in which there's a decent chance Ohio State could lose. College GameDay will be in campus, and Northwestern fans will be in a frenzy. I think Pat Fitzgerald's guys will play a spirited game and be in it all night. I just think Ohio State's talent will rip their hearts out at the end.
The pick: Ohio State 31-27