Monday, August 26, 2013

College Football Picks: Week 1

Rejoice. My picks blog - for entertainment purposes only - is back. For those new to the program, I pick ten games of interest every week, both winners and against the spread.

The season is here! So, feast your eyes on a fresh round of picks.

Utah State at Utah (-3) (Thursday)
It's a rivalry game, and the first college football game on Fox Sports 1. Utah State took this game last year in overtime and went on to have an outstanding 11-2 season. Then Coach Gary Andersen left for Wisconsin.
Utah was a disappointing 5-7 a year ago, but I'll pick the Pac-12 program to win a rivalry game at home.
The pick: Utah 21-17

North Carolina at #6 South Carolina (-11) (Thursday)
Jadeveon Clowney is about to be let loose on college football.
Unleash the Clowney. The top NFL prospect in college football begins unleashing his terror on opposing quarterbacks. I can't remember a defensive prospect being hyped this much for the Heisman before a game has been played, and there's no reason to doubt that he's worthy of the hype. He's looked like an NFL player since he was in high school.
Besides Clowney, South Carolina has plenty of talent and SEC title dreams. I don't expect them to have any trouble at home against UNC.
The pick: South Carolina 33-13

Texas Tech (-5.5) at SMU (Friday)
Did you know that Garrett Gilbert is still in college? The freshman who replaced an injured Colt McCoy in the BCS title game once open a time has one year of eligibility left, and he's back at SMU. While I'd like to see the kid break through and have a big season, I'm not sure it's happening.
Texas Tech should feature an exciting offense under Kliff Kingsbury, and Red Raider fans are thrilled to see it. I think they'll throw it all over the field on an overmatched SMU defense.
The pick: Texas Tech 38-24

Mississippi State vs #13 Oklahoma State (-12.5) (in Houston, TX)
Ever since Oklahoma State barely missed out on a chance to play in the BCS title game two years ago, OSU fans have been dying to get a shot at the SEC. Well, here you go... kind of. Mississippi State isn't exactly the cream of the crop in the SEC, but MSU is no bottom-feeder either.
I saw a cute stat today from a press release. It said Mike Gundy is 8-1 in his last nine games against "current SEC teams." Of course, seven of those wins are against Missouri and pre-Sumlin Texas A&M. Adorable stat, but I'm going with 1-1 in his last two games against actual SEC teams (a win over Georgia and loss to Ole Miss in the Cotton Bowl).
The Cowboys appear to be going with a two-quarterback system of Clint Chelf and J.W. Walsh. That isn't official, but Gundy hasn't named a starter yet. I expect to see some of both, though. Regardless of who is at quarterback, OSU has plenty of talent to go around on offense, even if they're not household names yet. While the Bulldogs' SEC talent may keep them in it for a while, I think OSU will pull away and win comfortably.
The pick: Oklahoma State 38-21

Temple (+30) at #14 Notre Dame
Why pick this game? Well, research shows 50% of my readership is Notre Dame football fans. Know your audience, folks. (Hi, Dad. Hi, Stan.)
The Irish begin this season still probably licking their wounds after being destroyed in the BCS title game by Alabama. The question is if the defense can replace the playmaking of Manti Te'o and the offense can replace the production of Everett Golson. I don't think victory should be in doubt, but Notre Dame tended to play down to lower competition quite a bit last year, although the opener against Navy was the exception.
The Irish should win easily, but I think asking a Tommy Rees-led offense to outscore someone by 30 is asking a lot.
The pick: Notre Dame 35-9

#1 Alabama (-19.5) vs Virginia Tech (in Atlanta)
The champs are here! We get our first look at the defending national champions and overwhelming favorites to do it again. While I always pick Virginia Tech to make some noise and be a player in the ACC, I can't have any faith in them against Nick Saban when he's had seven months to prepare. I don't care how many NFL players Alabama lost, the next crop steps in now.
The pick: Alabama 35-3

#5 Georgia (-1.5) at #8 Clemson
Tajh Boyd could start a 2013 Heisman campaign against
a young... but talented... Georgia defense.
Georgia fans are talking SEC and national title. If that's going to happen, it starts here. This the beginning of a brutal first month for Georgia that also includes South Carolina and LSU (both at home though). I think Tajh Boyd could emerge as the best NFL QB prospect in this year's class, and I expect a big game from him against a rebuilt Georgia defense.
Georgia's offense, though, is stacked: a seasoned veteran quarterback in Aaron Murray and two dynamite running backs. I think the Dawgs will put up a lot of points in a shootout win.
The pick: Georgia 45-42

#12 LSU (-4) vs #20 TCU (in Arlington, TX)
I like this game almost as much as Georgia-Clemson, but for different reasons. Not many people are picking LSU to win the SEC, and I think the Tigers love to be able to play the "no respect" card, something they haven't been able to play much under Les Miles. TCU, meanwhile, gets Casey Pachall back at quarterback after drug issues cost him most of his 2012 season. It's not a lock that he's starting, though. Gary Patterson has yet to say whether he's starting Pachall or Trevone Boykin (last year's starter). When he's right, Pachall can be a very good player, maybe the best in the Big 12. But, I have no idea what to expect from him after a year away. What really hurts TCU in this game is the suspension of Devonte Fields on the defensive line.. at least it should. It's almost looking like Fields may play after all. If he does indeed sit out, I expect LSU to take advantage and move the ball just fine. TCU is playing close to home and won't get embarrassed, but I think the Tigers will have too much.
What I would love to see, though: LSU down 4 with a few seconds left, facing a fourth-and-goal on the one... and Patterson sweating bullets as he thinks long and hard about sending Fields into the game.
The pick: LSU 24-17

#19 Boise State (+3.5) at Washington
This is the annual "Boise State tries to prove something out of conference" game. It's not exactly a top ten opponent, but it's obviously a challenge seeing as how Washington is a slight favorite. While I still think Chris Petersen is a fantastic coach, I think some of that Boise State magic that helped them win marquee games against Virginia Tech and Georgia has faded. Washington won't be taken by surprise at home.
Gus Johnson is calling the game, though. The Rule of Gus tells me it will be close.
The pick: Washington 24-23

#22 Northwestern at California (+6)
What's a picks blog without an upset pick? Northwestern has been getting a fair amount of preseason hype, and the Wildcats are becoming a nice program under Pat Fitzgerald. Cal is looking to rebuild under new coach Sonny Dykes, and they have an exciting freshman quarterback in Jared Goff taking over the offense. While Northwestern looks pretty legit and should compete in the Big Ten, I just see this as a trap: a west coast trip against a team unveiling a new wide-open offense. Upset.
The pick: Cal 31-30

Finally, the ridiculous line of the week: Oregon is -59 against Nicholls State. I feel for the Colonels because I covered them when I got my first job down on the bayous of Louisiana. I hope it doesn't get that bad, but I fear it might be. Good luck, NSU.

College football is back, everybody. Let's enjoy the ride. We'll be arguing about BCS standings before you can blink.

Sunday, August 25, 2013

College Football 2013: Top 10 Games to Watch

The rebirth of my blog continues with the list of the top ten college football games I already have circled on my calendar... is that expression outdated? How about, the top ten games I have set an alert for on my phone? There we go.

10. LSU vs TCU, August 31
Casey Pachall returns for TCU after sitting out 2012.
I love great non-conference games right out of the gate. I'm curious to see what LSU looks like. The Tigers are usually at the top of the SEC, but aren't necessarily picked as a top three contender this year. TCU won't have suspended defensive end Devonte Fields, but I am curious to see how Casey Pachall plays after sitting out last season with drug issues. A win against a top SEC team would be a huge boost for TCU.

9. Georgia at Clemson, August 31
Another outstanding non-conference game the first weekend, and this one is between a pair of top ten teams. There's a chance this could be the eventual SEC champion against the eventual ACC champion. We have a long way to go there, but it should be great to see Aaron Murray and Tajh Boyd try to match each other throw-for-throw. It is, perhaps, the first showdown of the season between two Heisman contenders.

8. Texas A&M at LSU, November 23
I'm putting this game on the list under the assumption that Johnny Manziel is playing for A&M. Johnny Football in Death Valley? Yes, please.

7. Texas vs Oklahoma, October 12
I look forward to this game every year, as it's usually an early indicator of who the team to beat in the Big 12 is. Texas should expect to go into this game 5-0 (New Mexico State, at BYU, Ole Miss, Kansas State, at Iowa State). Oklahoma, on the other hand will either enter this game reeling or on fire. The Sooners are at Notre Dame then host TCU the two weeks before this game. If Oklahoma enters this game 5-0, they will certainly be a top ten team. The winner of this game vs. Oklahoma State instantly becomes my next game to watch in the Big 12, as that may decide the champion. OSU visits Texas November 16 and then hosts Bedlam December 7.

6. LSU at Alabama, November 9
LSU vs Alabama has become a regular must-see game.
This has been the must-see game in college football the past two years. LSU may not be picked quite as high as some other SEC teams, but make no mistake about it: the Tigers are very talented. When this game happens, LSU will be the best team Alabama has seen in almost two months.

5. Notre Dame at Michigan, September 7
How good are the Irish without Manti Te'o and Everett Golson? We'll find out early with a visit to the Big House. Michigan may have a few questions themselves, but Devin Gardner has been getting a lot of praise as he's taken over as the leader of that offense. Notre Dame's last game against Stanford could be very interesting depending what the teams' records are, but let's make sure the Irish are legit first. This game will be a nice early indicator.

4. South Carolina at Georgia, September 7
How brutal is Georgia's early schedule? After visiting Clemson, the Dawgs host South Carolina the next week then get a breather against North Texas before LSU visits. Even with the home games, that's as tough as a first month gets. All eyes will be on Jadeveon Clowney and how much he terrorizes Murray.

3. Ohio State at Michigan, November 30
Another game I look forward to every year. Ohio State's schedule is not all that daunting, as the Buckeyes' most significant road games before this one are at Cal and Northwestern. There's a good chance Ohio State enters the Big House 11-0 with a national championship berth on the line. Popcorn is ready.

2. Oregon at Stanford, November 7
Stanford has been getting some well-deserved press as the team to beat in the Pac-12. Getting this game at home helps. What LSU/Alabama has been to the SEC the past couple years, that's what this game is out west. The winner likely wins its division and a berth in the conference title game while the loser will have to hope for help.

1. Alabama at Texas A&M, September 14
Can Johnny Manziel take down Alabama again?
Better question: will he get the chance to?
I don't care what Johnny Manziel may or may not have done off the field, please let him play in this game. Don't college football fans deserve to see Johnny Football get another shot to take down the mighty Crimson Tide? If he doesn't play, this game might drop out of my top ten. If he does play, it's must-see TV. Besides the obvious drama of the game, this is by far the toughest game on Alabama's schedule. Look at it. I don't see another game before LSU in which Alabama will be favored by less than a touchdown. Yes, it's still the SEC and things happen, but Alabama has a very modest schedule by SEC standards and is likely to coast to the LSU game. That's why this game is so interesting: the unpredictability of College Station and Johnny Football could knock the Tide down a peg.

As we know, as the season goes along, other games will pop up as critical while some of these could fade in significance as they approach. Whatever happens, let's get college football going already.

Thursday, August 22, 2013

College Football Freshmen to Watch

After being basically in hibernation for the summer, I've decided to revive my blog for college football season. I'll get it going by cross-promoting with my day job, producing a show called Sports Stars of Tomorrow.

The show focuses on rising high school stars who hope to be big names on the college and pro levels. In the past, the show has featured guys like Jadeveon Clowney and Andrew Luck.

For this post, I'll run down ten players we featured last year (my first on the show) who I think will make an impact in college football sooner rather than later.

10. Sefo Liufau, Colorado - The QB from Bellarmine Prep in Tacoma, WA, is my sleeper of this group. He may not have gotten a lot of hype in high school and won't get much more at Colorado, but I think he has the tools to be a very good college QB. He might start this season as a backup, but I think he'll be starting in Boulder soon enough.

9. Dymonte Thomas, Michigan - The Wolverines brought in a strong class that included Shane Morris and Ben Gedeon, but Thomas may be the guy who makes the earliest impact. The defensive back is working his way up Michigan's depth chart, and I think he'll see the field pretty early.

It's unclear how soon he'll play, but Max Browne will be a star.
8. Max Browne, USC - The only reason I don't have the 2012 Gatorade High School Football Player of the Year higher is because he's in a crowded QB situation. Browne has all the talent to start under center for the Trojans, and I'm sure he eventually will for at least two seasons. He's a smart, well-spoken kid with leadership skills and a great arm.

7. Joey Bosa, Ohio State - The son of an NFL player, Bosa has out-of-this-world athleticism for his size (6'5" 270). I'm not sure how much he'll play as a freshman on a national title contender like the Buckeyes, but I can't imagine there are too many guys on the roster with higher ceilings than Bosa. If Bosa adjusts quickly to the demands of the college game, he could play a decent role this year. I fully expect he'll be a household name among Buckeye fans before his days in Columbus are done.

6. Greg Bryant, Notre Dame - For all the talk about the Irish losing QB Everett Golson and LB Manti Te'o, don't forget the Irish graduated their two leading rushers: Cierre Wood and Theo Riddick. The window is wide open for a five-star back like Bryant to contribute early and often. Also watch for fellow freshman Jaylon Smith, who could help fill the void left by Te'o at linebacker. Insert your own joke about the void of Lennay Kekua.

5. Jared Goff, California - The freshman has already won the starting quarterback job for the Bears. His high school coach confidently called him an NFL quarterback. Maybe he's right. Goff has an NFL frame (6'4, 205) and has been praised for his accuracy.

4. Derrick Henry, Alabama - The record-breaking running back from Yulee, FL, will just be the next NFL back to come through Nick Saban's program. Ingram, Richardson, Lacy, and Yeldon have all played key roles in Alabama's three titles under Saban. This huge, powerful back will follow in their footsteps and do an outstanding job.

3. Robert Nkemdiche, Ole Miss - Everyone is picking this guy to be a star, and so am I. He's the next big thing at defensive end. After Clowney is done terrorizing SEC QB's, Nkemdiche may be the most feared pass rusher in college football.

I see big things ahead for Thomas Tyner at Oregon.
2. Thomas Tyner, Oregon - Here's where I go out on a limb a little, putting Tyner ahead of guys like Henry and Nkemdiche. The blazing fast running back from Aloha, OR, is a perfect fit for the Ducks. He may be behind De'Anthony Thomas and Byron Marshall on the depth chart, but that system has room for lots of athletes. I think Tyner is too talented to keep on the sideline too long. He'll earn his spot and make some plays as a freshman before eventually becoming a star in Eugene.

1. Su'a Cravens, USC - The do-everything star from Vista Murrieta, CA, will play defensive back at USC. The Trojans are hurting for depth due to sanctions, and talented freshmen like Cravens should see the field early and often. Cravens looks like a future NFL corner to me, and I think he'll play very well as a freshman.

Journalists are supposed to be unbiased, but of course I pull for the kids I have the pleasure of meeting while producing Sports Stars. Good luck to all the players who have been on the show.

I'll be back soon with a look at my games to watch for 2013.