College Football Picks: Week 9

It was bound to happen. I took my first real beating of the season last week as I went 4-6. The disaster from Oklahoma hurt, but not as much as my blind faith in Notre Dame and Northwestern. Lesson learned.  Time for a pregame pep talk, then it’s off to this week’s picks.

The locals

Baylor at #3 Oklahoma State

RG3 is OSU's biggest challenge yet.

As much as I defend Oklahoma State against its detractors, I do believe the line of OSU -14 (depending where you look… for entertainment purposes only of course) is a bit generous. Robert Griffin III (rightfully) gets a lot of credit for his athleticism and speed, but I’m not sure everyone appreciates how accurate and efficient he is as a passer. He’s completing 78% of his passes and only has two interceptions (compared to 22 touchdowns). The opportunistic OSU defense will be hard-pressed to force him into mistakes. The smart play of Griffin will keep Baylor in this one.

The good news for OSU: Baylor’s defense gives up a lot of points. OSU should be able to move the ball almost as well as it did against Missouri. Indications are that Justin Blackmon should be ready to play. Even if he’s out, Brandon Weeden still has plenty of talent around him, enough to score on Baylor anyway. Look for a lot of points, but more on the OSU side.

The pick: OSU 49-38

#9 Oklahoma at #8 Kansas State

Speaking of lines that surprise me, the Sooners sure are getting a lot of points (13.5 depending where you look) considering their lackluster performance against Texas Tech. Pair that with the fact they are on the road against a hot, confident Kansas State team, and I think the Sooners have plenty of reasons to be concerned.

I’m not ready to bail on the Sooners, though. There is too much talent on that team to fade to the middle of the pack in the Big 12. OU hopes to have a few injured players back this week, most notably Dominique Whaley and Jamell Fleming. Whaley should be past the illness that kept him out last week, and his presence should help the offense be more consistent. The slow start last week cannot be repeated. Fleming’s return is less certain, but probably more important as the OU secondary really got embarrassed last week. The good news is that Kansas State relies on the run more than the pass, and the Sooners can stop the run.  The Wildcats will play well, though, and won’t beat themselves. OU needs to refocus and deliver a performance worthy of that number 3 ranking it used to hold. I think the Sooners get it done, but it’ll be close.

The pick: OU 33-27

SMU at Tulsa

Every TU game so far, quite honestly, has been pretty easy to call. We all know TU is not as good as the top teams in the BCS (OU, OSU, and Boise State), and we all know TU is much better than North Texas and the bottom feeders of Conference USA (Tulane, Rice, and UAB). SMU is the first team TU has played that is really close talent-wise. The Mustangs, though are coming off an ugly 27-3 loss. TU, meanwhile, shows steady improvement every week. Not only that, TU gets contributions from everyone offensively. One week, it’s Bryan Burnham. The next, it’s Willie Carter or Ja’Terian Douglas or Clay Sears. That offense is growing, and I think SMU is trying to figure some things out. June Jones will make some adjustments, but I don’t think it’ll be enough to beat the Golden Hurricane in Chapman Stadium.

The pick: TU 34-30

It’s gonna be Legendary

#11 Michigan State at #14 Nebraska

Sparty's win over Wisconsin may just be the beginning.

This game could decide the Big Ten Legends division. Michigan State has to be a confident team after winning that thriller over Wisconsin last week. Ever since an ugly loss to Notre Dame, the Spartans’ defense has been very strong. I think that’s going to be a problem for the Huskers. Michigan State’s defense should force Taylor Martinez into mistakes, and the Spartans should be able to score just enough offensively.

The pick: Michigan State 24-21

Follow the Leader

Illinois at #19 Penn State

I’ve doubted Penn State plenty, and I’ve also put a bit too much faith in Illinois (maybe I gave them too much credit for that win over Arizona State). Both Penn State and Illinois have gotten wins over the bottom feeders of the Big Ten, but Illinois actually lost to one in Purdue. Penn State’s defense is great, and the offense is slowly coming around. In Happy Valley, that D and those fans will make it very tough for the Illini. Don’t look now, but Penn State at Wisconsin on November 26 could decide who wins the Big Ten Leaders Division… and I still think that sound stupid.

The pick: Penn State 21-17

QB Showcase

#6 Stanford at USC

Two of the top three quarterback prospects will be on display in this one. Andrew Luck is unquestionably the top prospect in the game, and Matt Barkley is either the second or third best QB prospect (behind Landry Jones). USC took a big step forward last week by winning in South Bend. This Stanford offense, however, scores a lot more points and doesn’t make half as many mistakes as the Irish. Stanford should take care of business.

The pick: Stanford 42-33

Future SEC “Rivalry”

Missouri at #16 Texas A&M

The Tigers and Aggies meet for the last time as Big 12 rivals. I’m sure they’ll become bigger rivals in the SEC because they will look at each other as their most likely wins in the conference every season. Missouri’s defense couldn’t stop anything Oklahoma State did last week in Columbia, and I don’t expect it to be any better in College Station. Expect the Aggies to move the ball with ease. Even if Missouri does move the ball and get a few points on the board, I think the Aggies will get more.

The pick: Texas A&M 38-30

The game formerly known as the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party

#22 Georgia vs Florida (at Jacksonville, FL)

Georgia and Florida play for this now. Really.

This game used to have a cool nickname, but now they just play for a stupid oar. The struggling Florida offense finally gets John Brantley back. So, the Gators are confident that the passing game will get a big boost. Georgia’s defense, however, has played much better over the last month, albeit against lesser opponents.

Georgia’s defense is statistically one of the best in college football, but it will be without two suspended starters for the first half (due to flagrant personal fouls in the Vanderbilt game). The good news, though, is linebackers Alec Ogletree and Cornelius Washington return for this game. So, by the second half, Georgia should have all of its projected defensive starters on the field. I think that and the consistent play of Aaron Murray will be the difference.

The pick: Georgia 28-27

The downfall continues

#5 Clemson at Georgia Tech

I said last week that if Georgia Tech didn’t beat Miami, the season could spiral out of control quickly for the Jackets. Here it goes.

I am a huge buyer in Clemson’s offense. Tajh Boyd is very comfortable in the scheme Chad Morris brought to Clemson. (Side note: I really think Chad Morris will be in the mix for head coaching jobs in the offseason, and I think former TU athletic director Bubba Cunningham will bring him in for an interview this offseason when he has to pick the new football coach at North Carolina.)

I think the Tigers keep rolling, and the Jackets enter a slight panic mode with Virginia Tech coming up next.

The pick: Clemson 49-35

I’ll take “Schools That Kansas Hates” for $500

#2 Northern Iowa (6-1, 5-0) at #3 North Dakota State (7-0, 4-0)

It’s the game that will decide the Missouri Valley Conference. These two teams’ résumés are nearly identical. Both won defensive struggles over Southern Illinois. Both blew out South Dakota State and Missouri State. Northern Iowa barely lost to a below average FBS team in Iowa State. North Dakota State beat a hapless Minnesota team. The Bison are at home. So, I’ll take them.

The pick: North Dakota State 28-24

Enjoy the games and enjoy Halloween.

Trick or treat.

College Football Picks: Week 8

Something I have in common with OU, OSU, and TU: we all had ugly wins last week. I went 7-3, but it certainly wasn’t pretty. A win’s a win, though. At least it wasn’t as ugly as all the realignment rumors and speculation.

As we enter the second half of the season, the games get more and more important as the national championship picture takes shape.

The locals

Texas Tech at #3 Oklahoma

Both the Sooners and Red Raiders have gotten scares from Kansas before pulling away for easy wins. The Sooners had to answer some questions about their lackluster performance in the red zone after last week’s game. I think their play will provide plenty of answers in Norman on Saturday. I highly doubt Oklahoma comes out sloppy two weeks in a row, especially at home. The Sooners should win comfortably.

The pick: Oklahoma 44-21

#4 Oklahoma State at Missouri

Whether Thayer Evans gives them credit or not, the Cowboys
force turnovers on defense. That helps them win.

I was a little disappointed in how a handful of OSU fans were griping online about an “ugly win” at Texas. The Cowboys won, didn’t they? And they won in a place where they have historically struggled. Take the win and be happy. Although, the fan reaction wasn’t nearly as surprising as a scathing article from Thayer Evans about Mike Gundy, which seemed to come out of nowhere considering what a solid season OSU is having. The idea that the Cowboys’ defense isn’t good because it benefits from turnovers is a bit flawed. Forcing turnovers is a product of an aggressive defense, a defense that doesn’t get enough credit for being as talented as it is. Saying that a defense isn’t good because it benefits from turnovers is like saying a baseball pitcher isn’t good because his opponents ground out all the time. Inducing ground balls is a benefit of keeping the ball down and pitching to contact. Getting turnovers is a benefit of pressuring the quarterback and being aggressive.

The harsh criticism could be a little bulletin board material for OSU this week. Missouri screams “trap game” to me. The Tigers have talent and could certainly put a scare into the Cowboys. This is an SEC team, right?

Despite what Evans thinks, I think OSU has the talent and the focus to get to the Bedlam game unbeaten. That includes surviving a road game against a talented, but certainly not great Missouri team.

The pick: Oklahoma State 35-28

Tulsa at Rice

After a slow start, Tulsa got rolling and cruised past UAB to even its record on the season. Playmakers are starting to emerge in the absence of Damaris Johnson. Clay Sears, Bryan Burnham, and Ja’Terian Douglas are all improving every time out.

Rice may be getting a boost as Sam McGuffie (a YouTube sensation in high school) is getting healthy, although his fumble last week did cost the Owls in their loss to Marshall. A road game is always tough, but the steady improvement I see every week from TU leads me to believe they’ll leave Houston with a victory, especially if they eliminate the turnovers that allowed UAB to hang around last week.

The pick: Tulsa 33-27

Trap game?

#20 Auburn at #1 LSU

This game didn’t make my list of top ten remaining games to look forward to, but it was in the discussion. While I’m sure Les Miles is working hard to make sure his team doesn’t look past Auburn, it is only human nature to be excited that the next game after this one is the highly anticipated showdown with Alabama. Auburn is dangerous simply because the Tigers are the opponent before the big opponent, and they have found ways to win some tough games against Florida, South Carolina and Mississippi State.

However, Auburn’s offense is struggling and the starting quarterback has yet to be named for this one. LSU’s defense might be the most talented in the country. This is not the time to try to figure things out offensively. Auburn’s defense might keep this one close for a while, but I don’t think War Eagle will be able to put many points on the board in Baton Rouge.

The pick: LSU 30-13

Warm up the bus

#6 Wisconsin at #16 Michigan State

It’s amazing that we are in late October, and there is a team that has not yet played a road game. Wisconsin is that team. The Badgers take their first road trip of the season Saturday, and it will be a tough one in East Lansing.

The reason Wisconsin is undefeated, though, is not because it has played every game at home. The reason the Badgers are undefeated is they are really, really good. They are the class of the Big Ten and should get past the Spartans. Even if they struggle early, the Badgers should pull away late. That offense is just too talented.

The pick: Wisconsin 38-24

So, you’re telling me there’s a chance?

USC at Notre Dame

If Floyd and the Irish get past USC, they could be back
in the BCS discussion entering their finale with Stanford.

It sounds crazy, but Notre Dame does have an outside shot at a BCS bid if it finishes 10-2. First things first, though: the Irish have to get past rival USC. The schedule really softens up between this game and the regular season finale against Stanford.

The Irish had a total of 10 turnovers in their first two losses. They have had a total of five in the four games since and none in their last two games. Basically, when Notre Dame doesn’t give the ball away, it can win. We’ll find out this week if the lack of turnovers is a result of the Irish improving or weaker opponents.

USC, though, isn’t nearly as strong now as it has been. Even though Matt Barkley is a top-flight NFL prospect, he isn’t surrounded by the same kind of NFL talent that Matt Leinart and Mark Sanchez were. The defense hasn’t been strong, either. Something I haven’t said in a long time: I think USC will have a tough time stopping the Notre Dame offense. Barkley will keep the Trojans in the game, but the Irish should win if they take care of the football.

The pick: Notre Dame 30-24

Beginning of the end?

#22 Georgia Tech at Miami FL

Georgia Tech looked like it could be a contender in the ACC a couple weeks ago. Suddenly, after being upset at Virginia last week, the Yellow Jackets are in danger of the wheels coming off pretty quickly. With another road test this week followed by home games with Clemson and Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech could find itself at 3-4 in the conference by mid-November. It wouldn’t be the first time this year a team’s season came crashing down in Atlanta.

The pressure is on the Jackets this week, and I think they respond. They’ll pressure Jacory Harris into mistakes and escape Miami with a win.

The pick: Georgia Tech 21-20

Remember them?

Cincinnati at South Florida

Speaking of wheels coming off, what has happened to South Florida? After a 4-0 start, the Bulls were on the verge of cracking the top ten before getting blown out by Pittsburgh. Now, they’re 0-2 in the Big East and fighting to stay in contention for the conference. Cincinnati opened conference play with a win over Louisville, but the Bulls are a different kind of challenge. USF has been sloppy for a couple weeks, but I still think the talent is there to make a run in the Big East. That run has to start this week, or it won’t happen at all.

The pick: South Florida 27-24

Pretender meets contender

#25 Washington at #8 Stanford

Washington has gotten off to a nice start in the Pac-12. The Huskies are 3-0 with wins over Cal, Utah, and Colorado. Now comes the real test: a trip to BCS contender Stanford (with Oregon lurking in two weeks). While I don’t think this trip will go well for Washington, don’t totally discredit the Huskies. They are having a nice season and have a good shot at finishing with nine or ten wins. This won’t be one of them.

The pick: Stanford 45-24

Because they’re due

#21 Penn State at Northwestern

Penn State’s offense has yet to really click, but its defense gets plenty of stops and keeps it in games, meaning the offense doesn’t have to do much to win. Northwestern, meanwhile, has a very good quarterback who can lead the team on impressive scoring drives. The Wildcat defense, however, hasn’t been able to get enough stops.

Throwing all statistical logic aside, I think Northwestern is better than 0-3 in the Big Ten, and I think Penn State is worse than 3-0 in the Big Ten. Dan Persa is due for a big win, and a home game against an overachieving Penn State team seems like a great opportunity.

The pick: Northwestern 24-21

My last fearless pick of the week: Northeastern State wide receiver Trey McVay won’t be as productive as he was last week. The Riverhawks’ star set an NCAA record with 425 yards receiving last week (not to mention school records with 6 touchdowns and 16 receptions in a game).

Most Anticipated Remaining College Football Games of 2011

Before the season began, I laid out my top ten most anticipated match-ups of the 2011 season. With the first BCS rankings being released, we're about at the halfway point of the season. Now, we have a better of idea of which teams are contending and which ones are fading. The games I'm anticipating basically fall into two categories: games between two top contenders and games that are an unbeaten team's last real chance at being upset.

Here are the top ten games I'm looking forward to as we wait for the BCS selection show:


10. Houston at Tulsa, November 25

They won't get in, but Kinne and TU could impact the BCS.

Yes, this game could have a BCS impact. Houston is sitting there quietly at 19th in the BCS with a 6-0 record. The fact is that if a team keeps winning, it's only going to climb. Don't be shocked if we get to the day after Thanksgiving, and Houston and snuck its way into the top ten, not because the Cougars are that great, but because they would have kept winning while big conference schools have knocked each other off. Considering Tulsa's losses all came to teams in the top five in the BCS, the Golden Hurricane is better than its 3-3 record. Tulsa could wreck any dreams Houston has of grabbing a BCS bid and maybe even steal the Conference USA West title if things play out right.

9. TCU at Boise State, November 12
This game was on my preseason list. It makes this list, too, but I'm not quite as excited about it. This is the only game on Boise State's schedule in which it is remotely possible that the Broncos could lose. No one else in the Mountain West will be within two touchdowns of Boise State. Based on what I've seen from TCU's defense, I'm not sure the Frogs will either. But, the game is worth watching because TCU at least has an offense that could give the Broncos a scare.

8. Clemson at Georgia Tech, October 29
Clemson looks more impressive every week, and the Yellow Jackets (recently upset by Virginia) are the conference team most likely to upset the Tigers. If Georgia Tech wins, there's a good chance these two could have a rematch in the ACC Championship, but any hope Clemson had of playing for the national title would be long gone.

7. Notre Dame at Stanford, November 26

Luck and the Cardinal have two huge games remaining
that could boost their computer numbers in the BCS.

At the risk of sounding like a huge Notre Dame homer, there is a decent chance Notre Dame could enter this game at 9-2, meaning a win over Stanford could get the Irish into the BCS. Cue the groans from all non-Notre Dame fans. I'm not saying the Irish would deserve it, but you and I both know that a 10-2 Notre Dame team will get a BCS invite (and possibly get crushed by a legit team like all three of their previous trips to the BCS). In all honesty, when Notre Dame doesn't turn the ball over, it can score enough points to beat a team like Stanford. The Irish still have to get past USC this week, but this game could be Notre Dame's chance to prove itself BCS-worthy.
Oh yeah, and Stanford could be 11-0 with a shot at the national championship game, too. So, this game could mean a lot for Stanford. Not only could it boost the Cardinal's BCS ranking, but it will also be a chance for Andrew Luck to showcase himself for Heisman voters.

6. Big Ten Championship Game, December 3
Yes, the Big Ten has a championship game now. It's going to be played at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. It's pretty obvious that it's Wisconsin and then everyone else in the Big Ten. If the Badgers can finish the season undefeated, they still might be on the outside looking in at the BCS title game. This would be the last chance for them to get tripped up. Maybe it's Michigan State, or maybe it's Michigan. Maybe Nebraska pulls itself together and gets there. No matter who the opponent is, crazy things tend to happen in these championship games that alter the BCS picture.

5. Oregon at Stanford, November 12
The injuries Oregon is dealing with make me wonder if this game will be as great as we thought it could be back in August. While Darron Thomas and LaMichael James both indicate they'll be back sooner rather than later, Oregon needs to be healthy heading into this one. These two teams are clearly the class of the Pac-12. Much like the LSU/Alabama game in the SEC, the winner of this game should win its division and the conference. If Stanford wins and remains undefeated, the Cardinal will still have national championship dreams. An Oregon win could give the Ducks an outside shot at the BCS title, but they would need a lot of help to get there.

4. Alabama at Auburn, November 26

Alabama and LSU both have national championship talent,
but both teams have roadblocks, including each other.

As usual, no conference will have more to say about the national championship picture than the SEC. The Iron Bowl is just one of three SEC games in my top four. Alabama is certainly a national title favorite, and the Tide's regular season finale against hated rival Auburn will be a tricky speed bump. Auburn could not only knock Alabama from the national title picture with a win, but War Eagle could possibly steal the SEC West crown.

3. Arkansas at LSU, November 25 
Don't look now, but Arkansas is quietly lurking in the SEC West. Already with a win over Auburn, Arkansas could really shake up the national title picture if it knocks off an unbeaten LSU team. That could cause a three-way tie in the SEC West, and Arkansas could even sneak into the SEC title game. The bottom line, though, this could be LSU's next to last speed bump on the way to the national title game in New Orleans if the Tigers get past the number two game on my list...

2. LSU at Alabama, November 5
National Semifinal #1, as I like to call it. If the winner of this game does not play for the national championship, I will be extremely disappointed. These two teams have talent on both sides of the ball that almost no one can match. (Note to Sooner and Cowboy fans: I said "almost" no one.) The winner of this game will instantly become the national title favorite, and it will just be a matter of holding serve through the SEC Championship Game.

1. Oklahoma at Oklahoma State, December 3

This year's Bedlam game could be a national semifinal.

Like I said in August, the main reason it's number one is because I live in Tulsa. Bedlam has never meant as much as it could possibly mean this season. They both have some roadblocks remaining (Baylor and Kansas State for both of them, and OSU still has to play Missouri), but right now I am thinking there is a strong chance both teams enter this game unbeaten. If that's the case, this will be National Semifinal #2. Most people will just consider this as Oklahoma's last chance to get tripped up. Cowboy fans, however, will view this as their chance to finally get over the hump and into the BCS. OSU in the national championship may sound crazy, but I am pretty confident that an unbeaten Bedlam winner will play for the title, no matter who it is.

A New Idea for the Big East

Instead of trying to make Boise State fit into the Big East,
there may be a better way to join forces and benefit everyone.

The Big East is in quite a spot. The Mountain West and Conference USA have announced a merger that forms a pretty decent football league, some would argue a better one than the six-team Big East (perhaps many would argue that). The Big East is reportedly going to respond by extending invitations to Boise State, SMU, Houston, Air Force, and Central Florida. Navy has also been a rumored addition to give the league 12 teams.

There are two problems here. First, inviting those teams doesn't guarantee the Big East keeps its automatic BCS bid. The other issue: all of those schools have to be thinking that the current monster C-USA/MWC merger might be better long term, as it could make an argument to steal the Big East's BCS bid.

So, here's a crazy idea for the Big East: get in on the big Conference USA/Mountain West merger.

Hear me out, Big East basketball fans. Hear me out.

If the Big East does exactly what the other two conferences are doing (merging only for football and staying separate in all other sports), then everyone gets what they want. The basketball schools get to keep Louisville, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Rutgers, West Virginia and South Florida around. Thus, the solid basketball conference stays together. The football schools get what they want: the security of that AQ bid.

So if the six remaining Big East football schools jump into the big merger, that makes a monster 28-team conference. How does that work? Here's my idea:

Playoffs? Yeah, I'm talking about playoffs.

Divide into four seven-team divisions. Everyone plays everyone in their divisions every year. The winners of each division begin a four-team playoff that results in a conference championship in early December. That's right, I'm proposing a little playoff system among FBS schools. Insane. I know.

So, if all teams play division opponents, that's six games. You can add three other conference games with a team from each of the other three divisions, but those games wouldn't count toward your division championship. In other words, your division record matters the most. Sometimes you get to go play Boise State or Fresno State as a sort of non-division conference game, if that makes sense.

That makes a total of nine conference games. Throw in up to three non-conference games, and yes, teams could play up to 15 games if they go to the conference title game and a bowl game. In the end, it'll be worth it (if the NCAA allows it, of course).

Take a look at the potential divisions of this mega-conference:

EAST
Connecticut
Rutgers
West Virginia
Marshall
East Carolina
South Florida
Central Florida

CENTRAL
Cincinnati
Louisville
Memphis
Tulsa
Southern Mississippi
Tulane
UAB

MOUNTAIN
Air Force
Colorado State
Wyoming
UTEP
SMU
Houston
Rice


WEST
Boise State
Nevada
UNLV
Fresno State
New Mexico
San Diego State
Hawaii

Yes, it's a little complicated. Although, I do see some nice new (or perhaps renewed) rivalries in there: Central Florida/South Florida, Louisville/Memphis, UNLV/Nevada, West Virginia/Marshall to name a few.

In the end, though, everyone in this deal gets what they want. The NCAA would have to let this super conference get the automatic BCS bid the Big East currently owns. The schools all stay separate in all other sports, and therefore own three separate automatic bids to all NCAA tournaments. Plus, all of the Big East basketball schools like Villanova, Georgetown, and Marquette can stop worrying if the Big East football schools are going to bail on them.

College Football Picks: Week 7

It was another good week at 8-2. I had a much better week than Texas and Kansas anyway. Now, those two teams trade opponents, and that’s where we start the Week 7 picks.

The locals

#6 Oklahoma State at #22 Texas

Texas had a rough time against Oklahoma in Dallas,
and it won't get much easier against Oklahoma State.

The Longhorns got absolutely embarrassed last week against Oklahoma. You’re not going to beat anyone when you turn the ball over five times, three of those for touchdowns. I don’t see it getting a whole lot better this week. Maybe Texas plays a little better at home. Maybe Texas limits the turnovers a little, and maybe Oklahoma State doesn’t create quite as much havoc defensively as the Sooners did. It still doesn’t change the fact that Oklahoma State has an offense that can be just as explosive as the Oklahoma offense that moved the ball at will in Dallas last week. Justin Blackmon will abuse the young Texas secondary, and Brandon Weeden will find him.

The pick: Oklahoma State 42-24

#3 Oklahoma at Kansas

I see zero reason to believe this game will be remotely close. Kansas gave up 56 points to Oklahoma State in the first half, prompting Mike Gundy to call off the dogs in the second quarter. If Kansas sniffs the endzone, it will be late in the game, when Oklahoma’s young guys are getting some playing time. The only question is how many points Oklahoma wants to score. More or less than the 70 that OSU hung on KU last week?

The pick: Oklahoma 70-9

UAB at Tulsa

The Golden Hurricane has got to be ready to resume Conference USA play. TU took some beatings against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Boise State. Now, it’s time to find out if TU truly is better for it. UAB should be a pretty simple test. The Blazers are winless and even lost 49-10 to a Tulane team that Tulsa defeated convincingly 31-3. Tulsa should have no problem with the Blazers and should easily move to 2-0 in the conference.

The pick: Tulsa 45-10

Just don’t sue us

#20 Baylor at #21 Texas A&M

Yeah, there are some hard feelings between Baylor and A&M.

Expect a lot of bitter feelings in this one. Baylor held up Texas A&M’s move to the SEC with the threat of a lawsuit. That threat may be gone, but I doubt the bitterness is.

As for the game itself, I don’t go out on a limb often, but I feel like doing it in this case. Texas A&M’s defense has not proven to be quite as great as many thought. 30 points to Oklahoma State, 42 points to Arkansas, and 40 points to Texas Tech. Robert Griffin should cause a lot of problems for A&M (like he does for everyone). Baylor’s defense isn’t exactly strong (which makes me hesitate a bit with my upset pick), but I think Griffin will lead Baylor past the Aggies in a shootout.

The pick: Baylor 42-38

The battle for the Paul Bunyan Trophy

#11 Michigan at #23 Michigan State

For a while, I kind of had the feeling that Michigan was overachieving and was due for a fall. As the season goes along however, I wonder more and more if this team has something. The Wolverines may trip up eventually, but I don’t see it against the rival Spartans, even if the game is in East Lansing. While Michigan State’s defense has only allowed a total of 20 points in its four wins, those wins are Youngstown State, Florida Atlantic, Central Michigan, and a mediocre Ohio State squad. Michigan, meanwhile, has a much better offense than those teams. While his throwing motion may not be perfect and he will throw his fair share of interceptions, Denard Robinson just finds ways to put points on the board. The Wolverines’ offense should give Sparty a challenge more like Notre Dame, which scored 31 in a win.

The pick: Michigan 28-24

Addition by subtraction

#15 South Carolina at Mississippi State

Stephen Garcia is gone.
That might be a good thing.

South Carolina has finally decided to part ways with troubled quarterback Stephen Garcia, and the Gamecocks are better for it. Sophomore Connor Shaw looked great against Kentucky last week (then again, a lot of quarterbacks do) when he threw for 311 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Mississippi State, meanwhile, has been a bit of a disappointment. The Bulldogs looked like they were ready to take another step forward after getting 9 wins a year ago. Now, Mississippi State sits at 0-3 in the SEC and going nowhere. With Alabama and Auburn still on the schedule, it is critical for the Bulldogs to upset South Carolina at home. Unfortunately for them, I think South Carolina has eliminated a big distraction and is ready to make its move in the SEC East.

The pick: South Carolina 30-24

No respect

#17 Kansas State at Texas Tech

Kansas State wants respect, and the Wildcats are apparently still searching for it as they find themselves as an underdog in Lubbock this weekend. I’ve missed on Kansas State the past two weeks, and I find this one tough to pick as well. What helps me make my decision, though, is Texas Tech’s defense. It’s not so much the 45 points allowed to Texas A&M as it is the 34 points each surrendered to Kansas and Nevada. Kansas State keeps finding ways to win, I’ll say it continues.

The pick: Kansas State 33-30

Who’s under center?

Florida at #24 Auburn

What makes this game really tough to pick is the fact that both teams are dealing with shaky quarterback situations. If John Brantley was healthy for Florida, I think the Gators win this one by at least a touchdown. Now it’s not clear if Jacoby Brissett or Jeff Driskel will be taking the snaps.

Auburn, on the other hand, is sticking with struggling junior QB Barrett Trotter while fans are starting to scream for freshman Kiehl Frazier to take over. I don’t expect either team to be crisp, but I think Florida will look much better than it has the past two weeks. Anyone will look bad playing Alabama and LSU’s defenses. Auburn doesn’t have a defense of that caliber. Really, nobody does (except maybe Oklahoma).

The pick: Florida 21-17

Fallen leader

#18 Arizona State at #9 Oregon

The injury to James looked bad, but he might be okay.

There’s a chance that Ducks star LaMichael James could miss this game after suffering what appeared to be a nasty elbow injury last week. The damage thankfully wasn’t as bad as originally feared, but it could still keep him out this week

I like what I’ve seen from Arizona State this year, and I think the Sun Devils will eventually win the Pac-12 South. ASU will give the Ducks a fight, and it’ll be closer than some people think. However, I do not think they can match up with Oregon’s elite speed, with our without James. In the end, Darron Thomas will have enough weapons at his disposal to pull out the W.

The pick: Oregon 35-27

Love the Drake? Hate the Drake?

Drake at San Diego

Both teams are 5-1 and 3-0 in the Pioneer Football League. Yes, that’s the name of a real conference. If it’s basketball, I love the Drake. But on the road against a team that’s scored 97 points over the last two weeks, I hate the Drake.

The pick: San Diego 41-33

I’ll leave you with two picks I’m very confident in: San Diego State will NOT get invited to the Big 12, and Memphis will absolutely NOT get invited to the SEC.

College Football Picks: Week 6

It was an above average week as I went 7-3, but on a couple the games I missed, I was way off. South Florida was brought down to earth, and it's now obvious to me that Ohio State is in rebuilding mode. No picks for those teams this week, but we do start with another one of my most anticipated games of 2011.

Wouldn't it be a shame if this rivalry ever went away because of realignment?

The locals

#3 Oklahoma vs #11 Texas

There’s no science to it, but every college football fan knows that anything can happen in a rivalry game like this one. A win by the Longhorns changes everyone’s perspective about this program, and the people wondering in the offseason if Mack Brown would be out by the end of the year would look pretty foolish.

While the rivalry element does factor into my pick slightly, it doesn’t factor as much as the overall talent. I subscribe to the old saying that if a team says it has two quarterbacks, it really doesn’t have one. Oklahoma has its guy. Texas doesn’t. Texas looks like it's improving, but are these young Longhorns ready to take over the Big 12? I'm not so sure. When it comes to crunch time, OU knows who is getting the ball. I’m not sure Texas does. The Longhorns will give the Sooners a fight like always, but I think Jones and that offense will make plays when they need to.

The pick: OU 31-23

#6 Oklahoma State vs Kansas

Poor Kansas. The Jayhawks had a lead last week against Texas Tech before the Red Raiders’ offense woke up to rally past KU for a 45-34 win. If Turner Gill and company thought that offense was tough, they haven’t seen anything yet. A well-rested Cowboys team should be able to score at will this Saturday in Stillwater. I’m looking for Weeden and Blackmon to put up plenty of gaudy stats early before sitting out in the fourth quarter as OSU looks ahead to Texas next week.

The pick: OSU 52-17

The valley game

Missouri at #20 Kansas State

Kansas State is coming off a big win over Baylor (when has anyone ever said “big win over Baylor?"). Now, the Wildcats have a ranking and some momentum in their corner. Unfortunately for them, I expect K-State to lose this week. I’m not sure the Wildcats can keep up the same intensity two weeks in a row. Don’t let the rankings fool you. Missouri has talent (they better if they want to play in the SEC, but that's a topic for another blog). Ask the Sooners about what the Tigers are capable of. Mizzou put up a pretty good fight in Norman before the Landry Jones rallied OU to a 10-point victory. Missouri has had a week off to prepare for this one, and I think James Franklin is ready for a breakout game.

The pick: Missouri 28-24

The team to beat

#17 Florida at #1 LSU

Tyrann Mathieu is this year's defensive dark horse
for the Heisman, and a big reason LSU is number one.

This game might be a little more exciting if Florida hadn’t lost quarterback John Brantley to a leg injury, but my pick really wouldn’t change. LSU has proven week after week it is one of the elite teams in the country. The defense is as talented as I’ve seen in Baton Rouge, and that’s saying a lot. Tyrann Mathieu, just a sophomore, has entered his name as the wild card defensive player in the Heisman trophy race. I think we’re all counting down to that LSU-Alabama showdown in November that should have a national semifinal feel. I think this banged up Florida team will just be a bump in the road for the Bayou Bengals.

The pick: LSU 38-24

Refusing to lose

#15 Auburn at #10 Arkansas

Auburn just seems to be that team that plays to the level of its competition, yet keeps finding ways to win. War Eagle knocked off previous number 10 South Carolina last week and now faces another number tenth-ranked team. Like South Carolina, I think being ranked tenth may be a bit high for Arkansas. However, I am a little more impressed with the Hogs than I am South Carolina. Led by Tyler Wilson, Arkansas rallied for a big win over Texas A&M last week, and I look for Wilson and that offense to continue their excellent play at home this week.

The pick: Arkansas 31-24

Toughest pick of the week

Georgia at Tennessee

Is it time to believe in Georgia or not? After a pair of tough losses to good teams (Boise State and South Carolina), the Bulldogs have stepped up offensively and defensively by winning two SEC games (Ole Miss and Mississippi State). What next, though?

Tennessee is tougher to read as the Vols lost by just 10 at Florida but have no really impressive wins outside of that (Montana, Cincinnati, Buffalo). For what it’s worth, Tennessee’s offense was really clicking last week against Buffalo. Like most teams in college football, the Vols should be tough at home, but Georgia’s defense is not Buffalo’s defense. It’ll come down to the very end, but I think the Bulldogs are playing really well after a frustrating start.

The pick: Georgia 21-20

Rude welcome

#22 Arizona State at Utah

Utah appears to be in for a rough welcome to the Pac-12. This isn’t Utah’s strongest team. The Utes lost by 17 last week to Washington to drop to 0-2 in their new conference. Now, a more talented Arizona State team comes to visit. I like the Sun Devils’ offense, and they should be able to score enough points on the road, even if the ASU defense isn’t perfect.

The pick: Arizona State 41-27

Redemption

Miami at #21 Virginia Tech

David Wilson won't let Tech drop two in a row at home.

While I did pick Virginia Tech to lose last week, I did not think the Hokies would look as helpless as they did against Clemson. Only 125 yards passing, two turnovers, and just three points on the board. I expect them to rebound this week. Miami’s win over Ohio State doesn’t look as impressive now that we’ve seen how mediocre the Buckeyes are. Look for Hokies running back David Wilson to have a big week. He had 123 yards rushing last week while the passing game struggled. If Virginia Tech can open up the passing game a little more, Wilson should have plenty of room to run.

The pick: Virginia Tech 28-20

Legends vs Leaders

Iowa at Penn State

The Hawkeyes are “Legends” and the Nittany Lions are “Leaders” for those who keep track of such things. Iowa opens up Big Ten play on the road in Happy Valley, where Penn State is sitting at 1-0 in the conference after slipping past lowly Indiana last week. Iowa quarterback James Vandenberg (not to be confused with James Van Der Beek) has proven to be a pretty efficient passer as he’s completed 62 percent of his passes and only has one interception. Penn State continues to rotate quarterbacks, and while it’s worked to an extent, it’s still not something I can get behind. I think Vandenberg will make enough plays late in the game to pull it out.

The pick: Iowa 21-17

The SEC of FCS?

#9 William & Mary at #11 Delaware

If there’s one thing I’m learning about FCS, it’s that the Colonial is the dominant conference. Five of its 11 members are ranked in the latest Top 25 with two more coming in 26^th and 27^th in the voting. As for the Tribe and the Blue Hens, both of these teams need this one to stay in the conference title hunt. Delaware is hurting a bit after being upset by Maine and falling from fifth in the poll. The Blue Hens will turn it around.

The pick: Delaware 33-30

You may now go back to speculating about how Missouri will fare in the SEC.