College Football Picks: Week 9

It was bound to happen. I took my first real beating of the season last week as I went 4-6. The disaster from Oklahoma hurt, but not as much as my blind faith in Notre Dame and Northwestern. Lesson learned.  Time for a pregame pep talk, then it’s off to this week’s picks.

The locals

Baylor at #3 Oklahoma State

RG3 is OSU's biggest challenge yet.

As much as I defend Oklahoma State against its detractors, I do believe the line of OSU -14 (depending where you look… for entertainment purposes only of course) is a bit generous. Robert Griffin III (rightfully) gets a lot of credit for his athleticism and speed, but I’m not sure everyone appreciates how accurate and efficient he is as a passer. He’s completing 78% of his passes and only has two interceptions (compared to 22 touchdowns). The opportunistic OSU defense will be hard-pressed to force him into mistakes. The smart play of Griffin will keep Baylor in this one.

The good news for OSU: Baylor’s defense gives up a lot of points. OSU should be able to move the ball almost as well as it did against Missouri. Indications are that Justin Blackmon should be ready to play. Even if he’s out, Brandon Weeden still has plenty of talent around him, enough to score on Baylor anyway. Look for a lot of points, but more on the OSU side.

The pick: OSU 49-38

#9 Oklahoma at #8 Kansas State

Speaking of lines that surprise me, the Sooners sure are getting a lot of points (13.5 depending where you look) considering their lackluster performance against Texas Tech. Pair that with the fact they are on the road against a hot, confident Kansas State team, and I think the Sooners have plenty of reasons to be concerned.

I’m not ready to bail on the Sooners, though. There is too much talent on that team to fade to the middle of the pack in the Big 12. OU hopes to have a few injured players back this week, most notably Dominique Whaley and Jamell Fleming. Whaley should be past the illness that kept him out last week, and his presence should help the offense be more consistent. The slow start last week cannot be repeated. Fleming’s return is less certain, but probably more important as the OU secondary really got embarrassed last week. The good news is that Kansas State relies on the run more than the pass, and the Sooners can stop the run.  The Wildcats will play well, though, and won’t beat themselves. OU needs to refocus and deliver a performance worthy of that number 3 ranking it used to hold. I think the Sooners get it done, but it’ll be close.

The pick: OU 33-27

SMU at Tulsa

Every TU game so far, quite honestly, has been pretty easy to call. We all know TU is not as good as the top teams in the BCS (OU, OSU, and Boise State), and we all know TU is much better than North Texas and the bottom feeders of Conference USA (Tulane, Rice, and UAB). SMU is the first team TU has played that is really close talent-wise. The Mustangs, though are coming off an ugly 27-3 loss. TU, meanwhile, shows steady improvement every week. Not only that, TU gets contributions from everyone offensively. One week, it’s Bryan Burnham. The next, it’s Willie Carter or Ja’Terian Douglas or Clay Sears. That offense is growing, and I think SMU is trying to figure some things out. June Jones will make some adjustments, but I don’t think it’ll be enough to beat the Golden Hurricane in Chapman Stadium.

The pick: TU 34-30

It’s gonna be Legendary

#11 Michigan State at #14 Nebraska

Sparty's win over Wisconsin may just be the beginning.

This game could decide the Big Ten Legends division. Michigan State has to be a confident team after winning that thriller over Wisconsin last week. Ever since an ugly loss to Notre Dame, the Spartans’ defense has been very strong. I think that’s going to be a problem for the Huskers. Michigan State’s defense should force Taylor Martinez into mistakes, and the Spartans should be able to score just enough offensively.

The pick: Michigan State 24-21

Follow the Leader

Illinois at #19 Penn State

I’ve doubted Penn State plenty, and I’ve also put a bit too much faith in Illinois (maybe I gave them too much credit for that win over Arizona State). Both Penn State and Illinois have gotten wins over the bottom feeders of the Big Ten, but Illinois actually lost to one in Purdue. Penn State’s defense is great, and the offense is slowly coming around. In Happy Valley, that D and those fans will make it very tough for the Illini. Don’t look now, but Penn State at Wisconsin on November 26 could decide who wins the Big Ten Leaders Division… and I still think that sound stupid.

The pick: Penn State 21-17

QB Showcase

#6 Stanford at USC

Two of the top three quarterback prospects will be on display in this one. Andrew Luck is unquestionably the top prospect in the game, and Matt Barkley is either the second or third best QB prospect (behind Landry Jones). USC took a big step forward last week by winning in South Bend. This Stanford offense, however, scores a lot more points and doesn’t make half as many mistakes as the Irish. Stanford should take care of business.

The pick: Stanford 42-33

Future SEC “Rivalry”

Missouri at #16 Texas A&M

The Tigers and Aggies meet for the last time as Big 12 rivals. I’m sure they’ll become bigger rivals in the SEC because they will look at each other as their most likely wins in the conference every season. Missouri’s defense couldn’t stop anything Oklahoma State did last week in Columbia, and I don’t expect it to be any better in College Station. Expect the Aggies to move the ball with ease. Even if Missouri does move the ball and get a few points on the board, I think the Aggies will get more.

The pick: Texas A&M 38-30

The game formerly known as the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party

#22 Georgia vs Florida (at Jacksonville, FL)

Georgia and Florida play for this now. Really.

This game used to have a cool nickname, but now they just play for a stupid oar. The struggling Florida offense finally gets John Brantley back. So, the Gators are confident that the passing game will get a big boost. Georgia’s defense, however, has played much better over the last month, albeit against lesser opponents.

Georgia’s defense is statistically one of the best in college football, but it will be without two suspended starters for the first half (due to flagrant personal fouls in the Vanderbilt game). The good news, though, is linebackers Alec Ogletree and Cornelius Washington return for this game. So, by the second half, Georgia should have all of its projected defensive starters on the field. I think that and the consistent play of Aaron Murray will be the difference.

The pick: Georgia 28-27

The downfall continues

#5 Clemson at Georgia Tech

I said last week that if Georgia Tech didn’t beat Miami, the season could spiral out of control quickly for the Jackets. Here it goes.

I am a huge buyer in Clemson’s offense. Tajh Boyd is very comfortable in the scheme Chad Morris brought to Clemson. (Side note: I really think Chad Morris will be in the mix for head coaching jobs in the offseason, and I think former TU athletic director Bubba Cunningham will bring him in for an interview this offseason when he has to pick the new football coach at North Carolina.)

I think the Tigers keep rolling, and the Jackets enter a slight panic mode with Virginia Tech coming up next.

The pick: Clemson 49-35

I’ll take “Schools That Kansas Hates” for $500

#2 Northern Iowa (6-1, 5-0) at #3 North Dakota State (7-0, 4-0)

It’s the game that will decide the Missouri Valley Conference. These two teams’ résumés are nearly identical. Both won defensive struggles over Southern Illinois. Both blew out South Dakota State and Missouri State. Northern Iowa barely lost to a below average FBS team in Iowa State. North Dakota State beat a hapless Minnesota team. The Bison are at home. So, I’ll take them.

The pick: North Dakota State 28-24

Enjoy the games and enjoy Halloween.

Trick or treat.