The Chiefs QB Dilemma

As I sit here watching the Kansas City Chiefs' 2012 season mercifully come to an end, I have a hard to imagining 2013 being a whole lot better. The team was embarrassing and will likely make changes to the coaching staff and hopefully the front office, but this team isn't going to make any significant leap without an upgrade at quarterback.

The problem, of course, is that there aren't any significant upgrades at quarterback available. The Chiefs picked the wrong year to be horrible. Last year, there was a great draft class, and Peyton Manning was out there. Now? It's slim pickin's.

Among free agents, there's Joe Flacco, who is very likely to stay in Baltimore you would think. If for some reason he doesn't, the Chiefs would have to go after him. For all of his flaws, he's way better than anyone in KC right now.

After that on the free agent list? Jason Campbell, Matt Moore, Drew Stanton, Kellen Clemens, and Chase Daniel. Yuck. I know Daniel has fans in KC after his Mizzou days, so maybe fans would like to see him brought in as a backup. But there are no guys in that group who are definitely upgrades from Matt Cassel.

Beyond that, the free agent list gets hilarious: Matt Leinart, Byron Leftwich, David Carr, Tyler Thigpen, Charlie Batch, Rex Grossman, Tarvaris Jackson, and... Vince Young. Barf.

So, what about trades? Some of these guys might just get released, but their teams may try to trade them first.

Benched in San Francisco, Alex Smith might actually
be the best quarterback available in a weak offseason.

Alex Smith is the first name out there. The 49ers are clearly ready to go with Colin Kaepernick for the future. Barring a career-ending injury to Kaepernick in the playoffs, the 49ers are likely to shop Smith. I've spoken before about how I thought Smith arrived last year. He was playing well, albeit not spectacular, before losing his job this year. The obvious concern is that he would struggle to adjust to a new system, just like he did in each of his first six years in the league. The fear of regression is big with Smith, but he sadly may be the best option out there. That means someone (maybe the Jets, maybe the Cardinals) will overpay to get him. KC, though, should see what the cost is. Plus, it would continue KC's long tradition of picking up former 49ers quarterbacks over and over again.

Michael Vick has obviously worn out his welcome in Philadelphia. His contract is enormous, and any team would be foolish to trade for him and absorb that deal. If he's released and you can get him for dirt cheap, maybe you consider it. His numbers are down, and his injuries are up, though. He's not a great option anymore. Better than Cassel and Quinn, though? Probably.

Matt Flynn was in demand a year ago as a free agent.

Seattle's Matt Flynn is an interesting case. A lot of teams were interested in him last year, and Seattle won out by giving him a modest three-year, $26 million contract (only about $10 million guaranteed). That's not ridiculous money if the Chiefs (or any team) wants to absorb that contract. At the same time, it wouldn't hurt Seattle to keep him as a backup for two more years, then let him go when it's time to negotiate a new deal for Russell Wilson. The concern obviously is about how good Flynn really is. Is the fact that he lost his job after getting a free agent deal a condemnation on him or just a credit to how good Wilson is? I think the risk of acquiring Flynn would be low. If it doesn't work out, his price tag is modest and you can go hunting for another QB when there's a stronger draft class.

The Jets are going to dump Mark Sanchez. No, Chiefs. No! He may actually be worse than Cassel and Quinn.

Tim Tebow is also going to be out there. I've made my opinion clear on Tebow. Great guy, not a great QB. Certainly not worth the media circus ESPN would bring. Good luck in Jacksonville, buddy.

The only other decent QB I could possibly see being traded is Kirk Cousins, but I think Washington hangs onto him while he's cheap. They'll trade him down the line before he becomes a free agent, though (assuming Griffin continues to play like he has).

Barkley's stock has fallen, but he does have talent.

As for the draft, the Chiefs obviously have to take someone. No, there is no one who is highly rated like Griffin or Andrew Luck or even Ryan Tannehill. There are guys worth taking a chance on in the second or third rounds, though. Matt Barkley was once the golden boy at USC. Maybe he excels in the right system as a pro. Based on how other USC quarterbacks have fared in the NFL, though, don't get your hopes too high. Plus, his recent shoulder injury is another concern. Is he worth that second round pick, though? Maybe.

Geno Smith might also be worth taking if the Chiefs either trade down from number one or trade up from the that first pick in the second round. He has a big arm and could be something, but he also disappeared at times this year, especially in bad weather. He's a risk as a high first rounder in my opinion. Late first/early second? Okay, sure.

Then there are guys like Landry Jones, Mike Glennon and Tyler Wilson who could be anything. There's just no way to tell.

The bottom line, though is that the Chiefs have to clean house at quarterback and bring in three new guys somehow: trade, free agency, draft, or some combination of the three. They can't go another year with the current crop. Unfortunately, the options available aren't promising. But maybe just the slightest upgrade can make this team watchable again.

2012 Bowl Picks - Part Two

Happy holidays! I hope it's going better than my picks so far. Part one was released before Christmas. Now that it appears the Mayans were wrong and 2013 will indeed come, let's check out the first bowl games of the new year.

TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl

Mississippi State -2 vs Northwestern

Generally speaking, Mississippi State rolled the lesser teams in the SEC and got pounded by the good ones. Then they lost to Ole Miss in a rivalry game. Northwestern is a well-coached team that did let some key games slip away this year, or else they might be in the Rose Bowl. I have to go with the SEC team, but Northwestern will hang around.
The pick: Mississippi State 36-30

Heart of Dallas Bowl

Purdue vs Oklahoma State -16.5

Oklahoma State has a deep, talented offense. Purdue did not beat a single FBS team with a winning record. As long as OSU is motivated to play (this bowl slot has to be a disappointment for them), the Cowboys should destroy Purdue.
The pick: Oklahoma State 56-20

Capital One Bowl

#7 Georgia -10 vs #16 Nebraska

Murray and the Dawgs narrowly missed playing for it all.
They'll close out the season with a comfortable win in Orlando.

Nebraska was absolutely embarrassed by Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship game. Georgia was a play away from being in the national championship. I almost always pick SEC over Big Ten, and this is no different. Georgia's defense should make life miserable for Taylor Martinez, and Georgia should score at will. Maybe not to the extent Wisconsin did, but Georgia will score a lot.
The pick: Georgia 44-17

Outback Bowl

#10 South Carolina -5.5 vs #18 Michigan

It's another SEC-Big Ten showdown that I think grossly favors the SEC. Injuries may have kept South Carolina out of the national title picture. They're a solid team, and Michigan is very inconsistent. After dealing with a legal issue, Denard Robinson is expected to play for Michigan. But his health is uncertain as he was unable to throw the ball late in the year due to an arm problem. He can still run, though, so he'll help. South Carolina will still win easily.
The pick: South Carolina 34-21

Rose Bowl

#6 Stanford vs Wisconsin +6.5

I think this will be close because I think it will be low-scoring. The Badgers lost head coach Bret Bielema, who left for Arkansas. The players, though, may be fired up to play one time for Barry Alvarez. Stanford's defense will not let them run up the score like they did against Nebraska, however. I think this will be a tough game that Stanford will grind out in the end.
The pick: Stanford 20-17

Discover Orange Bowl

#12 Florida State -13 vs #15 Northern Illinois

Nobody thinks Northern Illinois belongs in the BCS.
They don't care. They can't wait for a shot at Florida State.

The opinion that Northern Illinois has no business being in this game has been discussed plenty. But did you know that, according to Phil Steele, Northern Illinois had the worst schedule among all 124 FBS schools? The worst. Dead freaking last. How that got them to 16th in the BCS computers is crazy. Perhaps it speaks to what a down year overall this was in college football.

The only question in this game is if Florida State is motivated to play its best. NIU certainly will. They hear the doubters and have read all the bulletin board material... well, except maybe mine. The Huskies will play like this is their BCS National Championship Game. And they should. They shouldn't apologize to anyone. There were rules in place for them to get in, and they got in. They won their league and had a better BCS number than the Big East champ. That's the way it is.

I don't think Florida State will get caught napping, though. They're not exactly at home, but they're in their home state. The 'Noles will have plenty of fans there. Florida State could probably play at 80% and still win this game by two possessions.

The pick: Florida State 49-17

AllState Sugar Bowl

#21 Louisville vs #3 Florida -14

Speaking of teams who hardly deserve to be in the BCS, Louisville may deserve it less than Northern Illinois. They won the lousy Big East and had a lower BCS ranking than NIU (the whole reason NIU is in to begin with). Even though they won't win it, Florida is a national championship-quality team. This game may be as ugly as the Orange Bowl. The "Charlie Strong vs. Florida" angle will be used to hype it up, but I think the game will get ugly quick. Louisville will not stop Florida all night.

The pick: Florida 52-21

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl

#4 Oregon -9.5 vs #5 Kansas State

On the morning of November 17, it appeared that this match-up would be our national championship game. Then the Ducks and Wildcats both lost. It's still a very interesting bowl game, though. Contrasting styles: Oregon's fireworks against Bill Snyder's old school ways. The Wildcats are well coached enough to slow Oregon down the same way Stanford did. This game will be close all night, but I'll say Oregon gets a late score to cover. Too much speed.
The pick: Oregon 35-24

AT&T Cotton Bowl

#9 Texas A&M vs #11 Oklahoma +4.5

The Cotton Bowl got a great draw thanks to the BCS mess.
Texas A&M and Oklahoma should be a classic.

This is easily the best non-BCS game, and it's the third most interesting bowl game overall in my opinion (behind the Fiesta and national championship). Fun fact: with this game, Oklahoma finally passes Marquette in Cotton Bowl appearances. Marquette played in the first ever Cotton Bowl in 1937, never went back and shut down its football program in 1960. In an odd quirk, this is only the second time the storied Sooners have been. They're normally playing in a Fiesta or Orange bowl, or they have a rough year and settle for something like the Sun Bowl.
But I digress. I'm excited to see the Big 12 reunion with the Aggies, and I think it'll be a high scoring affair. Landry Jones finished the season strong, and there's every reason to believe he can hold up throw for throw with Heisman winner Johnny Manziel. I think it will be a great game, but A&M is solid. They'll pull through in a great one.
The pick: Texas A&M 33-31

BBVA Compass Bowl

Pittsburgh vs Ole Miss -3.5

I would call it an appetizer before the national championship, but this is more like the bread you keep eating because your food is taking forever. It's all that's there. Big East vs SEC? Easy.
The pick: Ole Miss 34-17

GoDaddy.com Bowl

#25 Kent State vs Arkansas State -4

If this was basketball, you'd say it was a battle of two of the top mid-majors. Kent State nearly got into the BCS before falling to Northern Illinois. Arkansas State won the Sun Belt, which actually was a decent league by its standards this year. The Red Wolves had a great year under Gus Malzahn, who is now at Auburn. They're a high scoring team, and they'll outpace Kent State. Yes, the Golden Flashes are ranked, but don't forget they lost by 33 to Kentucky.
The pick: Arkansas State 42-35

BCS National Championship

#2 Alabama vs #1 Notre Dame +9.5

The Notre Dame defense has been great, but can it stop
the SEC's dominance in the BCS era?

Despite the huge line, I've maintained since this game became a possibility that the Irish would not get blown out by anyone. I'll take the 9.5 points for sure.
Yes, Alabama is great and the SEC champions, but Notre Dame's defense will keep them in any game. The key is avoiding the big play. If Alabama breaks off a couple 50+ yard touchdown plays, it will get out of hand. If the Irish can continue their great defense in the red zone and hold Bama to field goals (like they did against Oklahoma and USC), then they have a shot. Plus, the Irish have shown a great ability to run the ball and control the clock in against tough opponents like Oklahoma and Stanford.
That said, this is Alabama's third national championship game in four years. A.J. McCarron is playing in his second. Nick Saban is a mastermind. They're the SEC champions, and the SEC has claimed six BCS titles in a row, have won 8 of the 14 BCS titles ever and are 8-0 in BCS title games. Every statistic says Alabama will win this game.
So, I won't. The Irish run the ball, play great defense, and grind out a crazy win.
The pick: Notre Dame 24-21

Going out on a limb? Sure. Why not?

Happy New Year.

Happy Holidays!

Merry Christmas! And I'd like to wish you all the very best for 2013.

2012 was a very busy and exciting year for me. So, if you missed anything, here's the quick recap (with links  to make it a very long recap, if you so choose).

The KOTV sports team: great group

The changes began back in March when I decided to leave KOTV after almost three years. The News on 6 was a great place for me, as I was uncertain if I wanted to even stay in TV until that opportunity came along. I'll always be grateful to KOTV for that chance.

I started a new job with GameDay Productions, a company in Fort Worth, TX, I had previously worked for. This time, though, I'm producing a show called Sports Stars of Tomorrow. The show used to be hosted by Pat Summerall, but we are now working with Charles Davis as we look ahead to the future. We're nationally syndicated and do stories on the nation's top amateur athletes. I produce the show, and I also get to do some reporting, which has been fun. More on that in a second.

My new home in Texas.

In May, I became a homeowner. I bought a townhouse in Keller, TX. Plenty of room for visitors.

In June, I checked an item off my bucket list by going to Ireland. It was awesome. I took lots of pictures.

When I got back, I began traveling for my job.  I got to go to Chicago, Denver, Seattle, Miami, and all over Ohio. I'll get to go to places like New York, Washington D.C., Atlanta, Philadelphia, Tampa and many others in the future. I started a fan page so you can follow my adventures if you Like (see what I did there?).

There were plenty of ups and downs along the way, but overall, 2012 was a great year for me and I'm looking forward to 2013.

Merry Christmas, and Happy New Year!

Joe McCann

I'll Miss the Big East

Well, it finally happened. The Big East's seven Catholic schools are breaking out their own, and the great basketball conference that so many fans have known is now on its death bed. I can't speak as longingly about the Big East as Georgetown, Connecticut or St. John's fans can. Marquette has only been in the league eight years, but it's been great for Marquette. For the 33 years its been in existence, it's been great for college basketball.  I'll definitely miss watching my alma mater compete is such a deep, competitive league year in and year out.

I guess this is a collector's item now.

As the football-driven conference realignment slowly tore about the leagues we were all used to, we hoops fans speculated time and time again about ways the Big East might be saved somehow so that the great basketball league would be preserved. Ultimately, the basketball schools breaking out on their own was inevitable. It was either going to happen because they took action or because the football schools all left. As excited as I was the day Marquette joined the Big East, I'm just as relieved to see them leave it.

Now, Marquette and the other Catholic schools are no longer on pins and needles every time someone jumps leagues. First, it was Syracuse, Pittsburgh and West Virginia. Then Notre Dame. Then Rutgers. Then Louisville. It was only a matter of time before Cincinnati and Connecticut bailed as well. After a few years in the new-look cross-country Big East, who's to say that SMU or Houston or Memphis wouldn't suddenly be in demand and jump ship as well? Eventually, Marquette would have been stuck in a league with the likes of Florida Atlantic and Rice. They had to bail.

The basketball schools had no leverage on their own. Georgetown and Marquette couldn't approach a league like the Big Ten or ACC and sell itself as a great addition. United, however, the "Catholic 7," as they've been called, have a future. I'm glad to see they realized that and stuck together for the sake of preserving some sort of watchable basketball conference. I only hope they get the television deal that can help not only basketball but other sports at the schools so they can continue to compete at the levels they expect.

These guys are a big reason why Marquette's run in the
Big East has been a positive one.

I will miss the Big East, though. Again, my best memories are limited to the eight years Marquette has spent in it. While Marquette hasn't been the best team in the league, it has consistently been one of the stronger teams. Marquette has made the tournament every year as a Big East member. It's a string of success made possible by the great recruiting class of Dominic James, Jerel McNeal, and Wesley Matthews. The steady stream of leaders that followed kept the run going: Lazar Hayward, Jimmy Butler, Darius Johnson-Odom and Jae Crowder all played large roles in making sure Marquette remained a solid program. The coaches who recruited them deserve credit too: Buzz Williams, and yes, folks, Tom Crean. Give credit where it's due.

I'll miss the classic games, even the ones in which Marquette didn't play. The UConn-Syracuse six overtime game was unforgettable. It's a shame the Big East Tournament as we know it is dead. It was one of the great events in college basketball.

I'll miss the rivalries that Marquette developed in the Big East, some that extended from Conference USA. Marquette had some bitter battles with Louisville, many of which Marquette was on the wrong side of. They were great games, though. Marquette had some classic games with Pitt and was able to continue its rivalry with Notre Dame. I hope some of these games continue in non-conference form, especially the Notre Dame series. I'd even all for some sort of Big East Reunion Series. Instead of a Big East-SEC Challenge, Big East Catholic schools vs. former Big East schools that left? Catholics vs. Football? Something to think about down the road. Keep rivalries, folks. They're important.

All good things come to an end, though. The good news for Marquette fans and the fans of the other Catholic schools leaving the league is that their futures will be much more secure once they secure a television deal (which I assume is in the works or else they wouldn't have broken away). They no longer have to hold their breath foolishly hoping football schools will stay in the Big East. Now, they're in control of their own destiny as schools like Xavier, Butler, SLU, Gonzaga and others seem interested in their mission to form a strong basketball conference.

I'm optimistic for the future, but I'll always miss the Big East. And I'll always be bitter at college football for killing it.

2012 Bowl Picks - Part One

It's time for my final exam - the bowl picks. I can only hope these go as well as my championship week picks, which I crushed. I went 11-1 on winners (thanks for nothing, Nebraska) to wrap up the regular season and 8-4 against the spread. I had 99 wins in the regular season. I'm cautiously optimistic I can get to 100.

Now, it's time to figure out where these bowls are and who's playing in them... oh, and who's going to win, too. I'll include the sponsor names with the hope at least one of them sends me free stuff.

Gildan New Mexico Bowl
Nevada vs. Arizona -8.5

Rich Rod kicks off your bowl season in New Mexico.

I really like Rich Rodriguez's offense in this one. Arizona is an improving team and lost some tough games to some good teams in the Pac-12. Nevada can score, though, (37 points per game), so look for a shootout.
The pick: Arizona 45-35

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Toledo +10.5 vs. Utah State
Utah State is the better team, especially defensively. The Aggies rank eighth in the FBS in points allowed (15.4). MAC teams have a way of making games interesting, though. Toledo will hang around, but Utah State will win.
The pick: Utah State 38-35

Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl
Central Florida vs. Ball State +7.5
If it wasn't for Tulsa, UCF might be in the Liberty Bowl. UCF lost twice to Tulsa, including the Conference USA championship. See my previous comment about MAC teams, though. Ball State's only losses in conference were to the teams that battled to be in the BCS: Kent State and Northern Illinois. UCF wins a close one.
The pick: Central Florida 30-28

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
BYU vs. San Diego State +2.5
BYU has a tough defense, but it has to because its offense isn't that great. San Diego State is playing in its home stadium, Qualcomm Stadium. Sophomore quarterback Adam Dingwell has filled in nicely for injured starter Ryan Katz, and I think he'll lead the Aztecs to a win to close out the season.
The pick: San Diego State 24-21

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
East Carolina vs UL-Lafayette -5.5
The Ragin' Cajuns nearly beat Florida in the Swamp, and they went on to finish second in the Sun Belt, which wasn't a bad league this year. East Carolina only had one loss in Conference USA, but didn't play Tulsa and its one loss was to UCF. ULL is playing close to home, and I think they'll play well in front of their fans.
The pick: UL-Lafayette 38-31

Maaco Bowl Las Vegas
Washington +5.5 vs #19 Boise State
This is not the great upstart Boise State team of years past. They're a nice team from a bad conference. Washington might be the best team they've played all year. Despite getting stunned by Washington State in the season finale, Washington had some nice wins this year over Stanford and Oregon State. The Huskies also had some ugly losses to like that Apple Cup game, but I think they'll play better to wrap up their season.
The pick: Washington 27-24

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
Fresno State vs SMU +12

For the second time in four seasons, June Jones and SMU
will be in the Hawaii Bowl. They won the game in 2009.

Former Hawaii coach June Jones returns to the islands, and his SMU Mustangs are big underdog. SMU struggled this year as Texas transfer Garrett Gilbert didn't flourish as SMU had hoped. Fresno State, meanwhile, has one of the highest-scoring offenses in the FBS: 40.3 points per game, good for 12th. The Bulldogs, though, did lose to Tulsa, a team SMU upset to get bowl eligible. I think SMU will rely on Zach Line to run the ball a lot at keep the Fresno State offense on the sideline to keep it close. It won't be enough to win, though.
The pick: Fresno State 31-21

Little Caesars Bowl
Western Kentucky -5.5 vs. Central Michigan
A mediocre game here: a 7-5 Western Kentucky team that lost its coach to South Florida meeting a 6-6 MAC team. I'll just go with what the spread says. I do like Big Red, though.
The pick: Western Kentucky 29-23

Military Bowl
#24 San Jose State vs. Bowling Green +7.5
For the third time in this blog, I'm going to pick the MAC team to cover but lose. San Jose State had a great year as the Spartans went 10-2, including a narrow three-point loss to Stanford. Their coach, though, is on his way to Colorado. Mike MacIntyre will not be with his team, and I think that will have an effect. Bowling Green's defense is tough and will slow San Jose State down, but the Spartans should have enough offense to win. David Fales had a solid year at quarterback: 3,798 yards, 31 TDs and 9 picks. He'll have enough to get the Spartans the win.
The pick: San Jose State 27-24

Belk Bowl
Cincinnati -7.5 vs. Duke
I'd enjoy this more if it was basketball. Duke was 6-2 at one point, but lost four straight (Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech and Miami) to just barely be bowl eligible. As mediocre as the Big East is, Duke really doesn't have any impressive wins to make me think they'll win this one.
The pick: Cincinnati 41-27

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl
Baylor +1 vs. UCLA
This is probably the first game on the bowl slate that the average college football fan will look at and say, "Okay, I'll watch that one." I really like the way both teams showed up this. Jim Mora did a great job in his first year with the Bruins, and Baylor proved that they can keep winning after RG3. The Holiday Bowl tends to be a good game, and I think these two will deliver. I'll take Baylor winning a wild one.
The pick: Baylor 35-33

Advocare V100 Independence Bowl
Ohio +7 vs. Louisiana Tech  UL-Monroe

I'm actually interested to see ULM's Kolton Browning
try to outscore Tyler Tettleton and Ohio.

Sorry, Louisiana Tech. I feel bad for the kids there. Blame the athletic director or the bowl system or a little of both, but Louisiana Tech's players got horribly screwed out of a well-deserved bowl game.
Enter the opportunity for UL-Monroe. Of all the "lesser" bowl games, I'm actually mildly interested in this one as it features the two teams that looked like Cinderellas in September. The two quarterbacks, Ohio's Tyler Tettleton and Monroe's Kolton Browning should put on a show. I see a fun back-and-forth game that ends with a dramatic Warhawks win.
The pick: UL-Monroe 33-30

Russell Athletic Bowl
Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech -2.5
Virginia Tech had a bad year by Hokie standards. Rutgers, meanwhile, overachieved and nearly got into the BCS. I think the Scarlet Knights are disappointed to be in this game, but Virginia Tech can't be too fired up either after going 6-6. I just can't pick a Big East team.
The pick: Virginia Tech 24-21

Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas
Minnesota vs. Texas Tech -13
Easy pick for me (which makes me a bit nervous). Minnesota went 2-6 in the Big Ten and became bowl eligible thanks to wins over UNLV, New Hampshire and Western Michigan. Slow clap.
Texas Tech should be able to throw it all over the field, and it'll be a fine send off for senior quarterback Seth Doege, who has had a nice college career after battling knee injuries throughout high school.
The pick: Texas Tech 49-17

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
Rice vs. Air Force -1
This bowl season: two 6-6 teams square off. Go with the Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl.
The pick: Air Force 33-30

New Era Pinstripe Bowl
West Virginia -4 vs Syracuse
An old Big East rivalry renewed!! No? Not exciting enough?
Look for a lot of offense in this one. Both teams can score in a hurry but give up points just as quickly. West Virginia will be the second most talented offense Syracuse has seen (behind USC), and I'll pick Geno Smith to go out firing.
The pick: West Virginia 52-38

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Navy +14.5 vs. Arizona State
Navy is a huge underdog, but the option is tough to prepare for, and I think their running game will make it tough for Arizona State to blow them out. I do expect the Sun Devils to pull away and win, though.
The pick: Arizona State 34-21

Valero Alamo Bowl
#13 Oregon State -2 vs #23 Texas

It's been another frustrating year in Austin.

Overachievers against underachievers? Oregon State has had a nice year while Texas has once again fallen from its lofty preseason rankings (yet somehow remains ranked through it all). It seems crazy to say, but I think Oregon State is better coached and more fundamentally sound than Texas. I think that will be the difference in this one. Oregon State capitalizes on the Longhorns' mistakes to win.
The pick: Oregon State 28-20

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl
TCU -2.5 vs Michigan State
Michigan State has struggled to score all year, and TCU's defense only got better as the season went along. The Frogs' offense has improved as well as Trevone Boykin has settled in. The drug suspensions and injuries made for a somewhat disappointing debut season in the Big 12 for TCU, but the Frogs recovered nicely, and I think they'll close out 2012 with a solid win.
The pick: TCU 27-17

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
NC State vs Vanderbilt -6.5
In the battle of SEC vs ACC, I always have to lean SEC. Vanderbilt has to be extremely happy that James Franklin is still there after all the coaching changes over the past  few weeks. Plus, the Commodores are playing close to home.
The pick: Vanderbilt 38-24

Hyundai Sun Bowl
USC -10 vs Georgia Tech

After being a preseason pick to win it all, USC will close
out its season in the Sun Bowl, maybe with Barkley back.

Matt Barkley might return to play. Whether he does or he doesn't, USC should have enough firepower to blow past Georgia Tech.
The pick: USC 38-21

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Iowa State vs.  Tulsa (PK)
Iowa State rolled over Tulsa in the season opener 38-23, but that was Cody Green's first game with TU. Tulsa's offense is playing much better know, and the Golden Hurricane will be fired up to play in the Liberty Bowl after winning the Conference USA Championship. The Cyclones will be tough again, but I think TU closes out the season strong.
The pick: Tulsa 30-27

Chick-fil-A Bowl
#8 LSU -3.5 vs. #14 Clemson
LSU easily has the better defense and more talent overall, but the quarterback position makes me think Clemson can hang around. Tajh Boyd and wide receiver Sammy Watkins can be trouble for any defense. Meanwhile, LSU's Zach Mettenberger can be as hot and cold as any quarterback in America. I think LSU will keep the ball on the ground to protect Mettenberger and the LSU pass rush will wear down Clemson by the end. Besides, the SEC absolutely dominated the ACC in November (Georgia/Georgia Tech, Florida/Florida State, South Carolina/Clemson). I think the SEC gets one more here.
The pick: LSU 31-21


I'll finish the rest of the bowl picks closer to New Year's Day. Merry Christmas, everyone.

Royal Gamble: I Get It

There are a lot of mixed feelings about the recent Royals trade that sent top prospects Wil Myers, Jake Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery to Tampa Bay in exchange for starters James Shields and Wade Davis. I have some mixed feelings myself. Giving up their top hitting and pitching prospect seemed like a bit much, but I understand what Dayton Moore is doing. He desperately needed better pitching, and he got it. Did he overpay? Probably, but the guys he got might be worth it.

Dayton Moore is going all in for the next two seasons.

The Royals have not made the playoffs since 1985. Kansas City fans really want to see a winner, and they weren't going to see one in 2013 with the staff they had last week. Now, there is some reason for hope.

Saviors? I don't know about that, but I do know that
Shields and Davis are big upgrades to the staff in KC.

You can debate whether or not James Shields is a "true ace" all you want. There is no debating that he is instantly Kansas City's best starting pitcher. Wade Davis might be their second best. At worst, he's their fourth starter. With all due respect to the current starters, there is no chance of being a playoff team with a staff that has Bruce Chen and Luke Hochevar at the top of it.

If you're upset about trading hot prospects like Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi, I get that. They were a high price to pay, but Royals fans have to be tired of the words "prospects," "potential," and "future." At some point, it's time to trade a piece of the future and try to win. To do that, you have to take a risk here and there. I think this was one worth taking. Those prospects might be great, but they might not. James Shields is rock solid, and Wade Davis has proven himself as a big leaguer as well.

Kansas City has a promising lineup that should win quite a few games in the AL Central. Alex Gordon has settled in nicely at the top of the lineup. Salvador Perez, after missing a lot of time with an injury in 2012, could be an All-Star catcher. Billy Butler is solid at DH. Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer went through some sophomore slumps last year, but have all the tools to be successful Major League hitters. How those two as well as the ever-inconsistent Jeff Francoeur perform at the plate will ultimately decide how good or bad the Kansas City offense is in 2013. I think the Royals will be fine at the plate.

With the young pieces in place in the lineup, Dayton Moore had to put together a staff that could win games while all these talented young hitters are under club control. Eventually, they'll become free agents and likely leave. The likelihood that they leave greatly increases if Kansas City stays below .500 for the next two seasons. Then those guys get sick of losing and want to win as well as get paid like Zack Greinke, Carlos Beltran, Johnny Damon and so many others have.

It'll be easy to judge this trade in two years. If the Royals are winners, it was totally worth it. If they are still lousy and Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi are All-Stars, it was stupid. All we can do is judge the risk vs. reward right now, and I tend to agree with Moore's move. I think he got pressured into overpaying in giving up Odorizzi and Mike Montgomery, but I get it.

Is it a risk? Sure, but in the end, what is Moore really risking? If he wins, he's the hero who finally put together a winner in Kansas City. If he loses, well, that's what Kansas City has been doing for 27 years. People tend to overvalue prospects and the future. Royals fans have to be sick of hearing "some day" and "eventually." Win now. If you swing and miss, oh well, you're still the Royals. At least Dayton Moore is trying.

To change that culture of losing, he had to do something drastic. Since he didn't have $147 million to spend on Zack Greinke, this move was worth the price of those great prospects.

Fine the Spurs? Don't you dare, Stern

David Stern says he's going to punish the Spurs for resting their star players on Thursday night in Miami. He says "substantial sanctions" are coming. I think that would be a substantial mistake.

David Stern is way out of line if he punishes San Antonio.

As the head coach, Gregg Popovich has the right to sit or start whomever he wants. It's not like this is the first time he's done this, either. He has routinely rested Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker over the past couple years. All this guy has done since becoming head coach in 1996 is make the Spurs one of the best franchises in the NBA (maybe in American pro sports) and won four NBA titles along the way. I think we can trust he is doing what is best for his franchise.

Ultimately, Popovich just wants his best players healthy for the playoffs, when the games really matter. Remember what happened last season? The Spurs gained momentum late in the year, passed the Thunder for the best record and top seed in the Western Conference and made a deep run in the playoffs. Only an amazing rally by Kevin Durant and company kept the Spurs from reaching the Finals. Still, Popovich's strategy to rest his stars throughout the 2011-12 season worked because his team was healthy and playing extremely well in June.

David Stern has no right to tell teams which players to start and sit. He can be upset about it. He can complain openly, but he cannot dictate who starts and he certainly should not fine a team for it. That's not his job. It is Popovich's job to decide what is best both short-term and long-term for the Spurs. History has shown he does that job quite well.

What if Stern forced the Spurs to play their starters and Tim Duncan went out there and got injured and missed two months of action? Then how would Stern look? This was the Spurs' fourth game in five nights. It made perfect sense to rest some guys. Granted, I'm not sure why 30-year old Tony Parker and 25-year old Danny Green needed a full night off, but I'm not the coach.

I'll also say that I don't get why Pop can't spread out the rest for his guys: rest Duncan on Wednesday, Ginobili on Thursday, etc. I'm also not sure why the guys couldn't at least be in the arena, maybe sign autographs for any fans who really wanted to see them or at least be there in case the Spurs had foul trouble or injuries and needed them. Again, though, I've never coached a game in my life. Popovich has four NBA championships.

If Stern is going to fine Popovich for the lineup he put out there for one game, shouldn't he fine the Wizards and Bobcats for the trash they put out there every single night? Now, those teams are punishing the fans.

I get Stern's disappointment. This was a nationally televised game between two great teams. He wanted the stars to come out. Maybe he should have made sure both teams had a couple days' rest before the game if it was really that important to him. Sure, if I was a fan at the game, I'd be bummed I didn't see Tim Duncan, but that's the breaks sometimes. The ticket you buy guarantees you nothing but a seat in the arena.

Popovich knows what he's doing. Let him coach his team.

Counterpoint: the news of the rested players and the Spurs' surprising play (they only lost by 5) actually made the game really exciting and a lot of people watched to see what happened. I bet the ratings were good by the end of the night.

Punishing the Spurs would open a big can of worms for the NBA. Will teams demand he punish teams for tanking late in the season to improve lottery odds? Will players demand that teams that have clinched playoff berths continue to play their starters late in the year? What if a star player and a coach are feuding and the coach sits that player? Can Stern step in and force him to start? No way.

Stern has done a nice job as commissioner, but he is really overstepping his bounds here. Leave the Spurs alone. Popovich knows what he's doing. Just look at those rings on his finger. No other active coach has more.

College Football Picks - Week 14

I had a great rivalry week as I went 7-3 on winners and a season-high 8-2 against the spread. Can I keep the momentum going in the final regular season weekend?

Doubtful.

I normally pick just ten games, but I'll pick every game that matters for the regular season finale.

Louisville +3 at Rutgers
Why it matters: Rutgers clinches the Big East's BCS bid with a win. A Louisville win would mean a tie at the top that would be decided by the BCS standings. That would mean Rutgers, Louisville, Syracuse, and maybe Cincinnati would look to the BCS rankings to decide who goes to the BCS, likely the Orange Bowl.
While I was high on Louisville (by Big East standards) earlier this year, the Cards have really fallen flat the last two weeks. Rutgers, though, looked awful against Pittsburgh last week. I'll take the Louisville offense against the Rutgers D in this one, but it won't be pretty.
The pick: Louisville 24-20

Cincinnati -5 at Connecticut
Why it (kinda) matters: Cincinnati could finish tied for the Big East championship if Louisville beats Rutgers. None of these teams, however, are in the BCS top 25. I would guess that in this scenario, Louisville would get the BCS bid. I don't think Cincy would have enough in its profile to have the highest BCS ranking, but I could be wrong. They'd get a sweet four-way tie championship shirt though... right? Plus, in two years, none of the teams they'd tie with would be in the Big East, so they could totally win it outright then.
The pick: Cincinnati 34-17

#21 Northern Illinois vs #17 Kent State +6

Led by 1,000-yard rushers Dri Archer and Trayion Durham,
the Kent State Golden Flashes could crash the BCS party.

Why it matters: The winner of this game not only gets the MAC championship, but also has a decent shot to finish in the Top 16 of the BCS standings. To remind you, any non-AQ champion that finishes in the Top 16 in the BCS and is ranked higher than an AQ champion (the Big East champ this year) earns an automatic BCS bid.
This possibility is especially true for Kent State, maybe not so much for Northern Illinois. These teams definitely want #16 UCLA to lose to Stanford, making some room to move up. NIU would also greatly appreciate #18 Texas (how are they that high??) losing to Kansas State and #20 Boise State falling to Nevada.
As for the game itself, both teams have very good rushing attacks, but NIU's superior defense should be the difference in a very close game.
The pick: Northern Illinois 33-30

#20 Boise State -9.5 at Nevada
Why it matters: Yes, Boise State can get into the BCS. Much like NIU, it's a long shot and they need some help, but the Broncos have a chance by winning in Reno. A win would mean Boise State would finish in a three-way tie with San Diego State and Fresno State for the Mountain West crown. Neither of those teams are ranked in the BCS. So, if by some chance Boise State moves up to 16, it would have the tie-breaker to earn the BCS bid.
I don't think a win will be enough to get the Broncos in the BCS, but Chris Petersen will have his guys ready. Boise was the overwhelming favorite to win the Mountain West, and  they'll play like it. Will this be Petersen's last game in Boise? I haven't heard his name connected to many coaching openings, but I personally think every AD should give him a call. If I'm Petersen, I think I've done all I can in Boise and I go to a major conference instead of going into this mess known as the Big East.
The pick: Boise State 49-24

Middle Tennessee at Arkansas State -10
Why it matters: It decides the Sun Belt championship, as both teams are 6-1 in the league. There are no BCS implications. I'll take Gus Malzahn's Red Wolves to win big before Malzahn's name starts popping up in some of these offseason coaching searches. (I'm not sure he leaves after one year, but you'll hear his name.)
The pick: Arkansas State 44-31

Central Florida at Tulsa -2
Why it matters: It's the Conference USA Championship game, no BCS implications. The winner is headed to the Liberty Bowl. I suppose it's worth noting (ironically in a blog that picks against the spread) that Tulsa was shaken a little this week when its athletic director was suspended after his name came up in a gambling investigation. He may be fired by the time this game kicks off, but I don't think that will affect the football team that much.
These teams met two weeks ago in Tulsa, and the Golden Hurricane won 23-21. I think Bill Blankenship has done a great job since taking over for Todd Graham two years ago, and I think his guys are ready for this. They'll put the distractions aside and take care of business.
The pick: Tulsa 27-21

#16 UCLA +8.5 vs #8 Stanford
Why it matters: It's the Pac-12 Championship. The winner is Rose Bowl-bound, and the loser is very likely out of the BCS since Oregon is too good to pass up for an at-large selection.
I'm not saying UCLA knowingly quit against Stanford, but I did say last week that Stanford had to win and UCLA did not. I thought the performances would reflect that, and they did in the Stanford rout. It's not intentional on UCLA's part. It's just human nature. A team with nothing to play for against a team with everything to play for is not going to perform as well. The Bruins will turn it up a notch this week, but I still don't think it will be enough against Stanford's defense.
The pick: Stanford 21-17


#18 Texas at #6 Kansas State -11.5

National title hopes are gone, but Snyder and Klein
can still bring Kansas State a Big 12 championship.

Why it matters: Kansas State clinches the Big 12 title with a win. They are currently tied for first with Oklahoma, but the Wildcats own the head-to-head tiebreaker. Texas is highly unlikely to get into the BCS, but a win here could get the Longhorns to the Cotton Bowl (where they would likely play Texas A&M). Kansas State is coming off a disastrous performance against Baylor, but has had two weeks to figure things out. Texas, quite simply, is not good. The quarterback play is a mess, and it's even worse with David Ash out. Kansas State will force turnovers and win easily.
The pick: Kansas State 38-17


#11 Oklahoma -6.5 at TCU
Why it matters: Oklahoma could win the Big 12 or at least solidify itself as a BCS at-large with a win. As long none of those non-AQ's sneak up to 16, Oklahoma is almost a lock to go to a BCS game (likely the Sugar Bowl). If Kansas State loses, the Sooners would win the Big 12 outright and be on their way to the Fiesta Bowl. So, yes, the Sooners find themselves in the position of cheering for Texas.
TCU played a great game against Texas. The Horned Frogs' D has really played well, but Oklahoma is not as inept at quarterback as Texas. On the contrary, Landry Jones has played some of his best football lately. I think he'll finish strong and get OU into the BCS.
The pick: Oklahoma 35-24

#13 Florida State -14 vs Georgia Tech
Why it matters: It's the ACC Championship and the winner heads to the Orange Bowl. Florida State had a rough day against Florida, but Georgia Tech doesn't offer half the challenge Florida did. The Yellow Jackets had a rough time against Georgia, and I don't think this one goes much better.
The pick: Florida State 35-10

#12 Nebraska -3 vs Wisconsin
Why it matters: It's the Big Ten Championship, with the winner earning a trip to the Rose Bowl. These two teams met earlier this year, and Nebraska started off slow only to rally to win 30-27. I think Nebraska is clearly the better team and will show up much more prepared against Wisconsin this time. The Badgers have improved, though, over the course of the season, but not enough to get to the Rose Bowl.
The pick: Nebraska 27-21

#2 Alabama vs #3 Georgia +7

Most people assume Alabama will win this game, but do not
sleep on Aaron Murray and this talented Georgia team.

Why it matters: pretty obvious, no? The winner is the SEC champion and goes to Miami to face Notre Dame for the BCS championship. Georgia hears everyone anointing Alabama the national champions before this game has even been played. If you look at Georgia's body of work, it's really similar to Alabama's. I'm not saying Georgia is better, but it's closer than most think. Georgia is playing close to home and will give Alabama all it can handle. For the sake of my family members in Georgia, I think it would be great to see the Dawgs win, but I think Alabama is just one score better.
The pick: Alabama 24-21 (ducks as my mom's family starts throwing things)

See you back here for the bowl picks.

College Football Picks - Week 13

Just an awful performance last week. It was a flop. I was 4-6 on winners, and a pathetic 3-7 against the spread. I'm not trying to be this bad, honestly.

I would be very thankful if I could just finish above .500 this week.

TCU +7 at #16 Texas
Have the Longhorns really turned it around, or have they just beat some weaker teams in the Big 12? Maybe a little of both? Believe it or not, Texas has a shot at the Big 12 championship if it wins its last two games (including Kansas State) and Oklahoma loses a game or two.
I don't think Texas will dominate TCU, because I think the Frogs' defense will show up for this one. I do think Texas will have just enough offense while TCU may not.
The pick: Texas 27-24

Georgia Tech +13 at #3 Georgia
Georgia has to be thinking about Alabama and a possible national championship berth, so it wouldn't be a shock to see the Bulldogs get a scare in a rivalry game. In the end, though, Georgia's defense should be enough to slow down the Tech option attack.
The pick: Georgia 31-21

#1 Notre Dame -6.5 at USC

If USC is going to ruin Notre Dame's dream season,
it will be this guy, not Matt Barkley, doing it.

So, Matt Barkley is apparently out for this game, which is too bad. People against Notre Dame (which, let's be honest, is everyone right now because of the BCS standings) would love to see USC bring ND back to the pack. I also think there's a part of every Notre Dame fan that would like to beat USC at its best and take down Barkley in his last regular season game. Oh well.
Can Notre Dame finish this off, or will the inevitable BCS chaos grab the Irish, too? The only thing I know about Max Wittek is that he's starting on Saturday at quarterback. I don't know what he'll be able to do against the Notre Dame defense. But based on what every other quarterback has done against Notre Dame, my guess would be "not a lot."
History indicates that USC will throw one more wrench in the BCS and bring the Irish back to the pack. Just when we think we have the BCS figured out, something crazy happens like it did last week. Everyone who is not a Notre Dame fan wants the Irish to go down, but I don't think Manti Te'o lets this team collapse after coming this far. The defense will be a nightmare for the young quarterback, and the Irish (I can't believe I'm saying this) will march on to Miami.
The pick: Notre Dame 24-17

#18 Rutgers +2 at Pittsburgh
Sneeze at Rutgers' schedule if you want, but the Scarlet Knights have played good defense and are 5-0 in the Big East while Pittsburgh is 1-4. While I don't expect many unbeaten seasons for Rutgers in the Big Ten, they'll get one step closer to one this week.
The pick: Rutgers 21-17

#19 Michigan at Ohio State -3.5

Braxton Miller is playing for an outside shot at the Heisman
and maybe even a split national title since OSU.

Every week, Ohio State has a small line, and every week I pick the Buckeyes. I'm not going against them now. People do realize that if Notre Dame loses, then Ohio State has a chance to claim the AP national championship, right? Michigan is banged up, and let's not forget Braxton Miller may try to make one last case to get invited to New York for the Heisman ceremony.
The pick: Ohio State 31-24

#5 Oregon -9.5 at #15 Oregon State
The Civil War doesn't mean quite as much as it would have a week ago. Oregon is now on the outside looking in at not only the BCS title game, but also the Pac-12 championship. The Ducks need to win and need a Stanford loss to get to play for a conference championship. Oregon will have a bounce back game, and I think the Ducks will try to run it up just to get some BCS style points. Let's be honest, they're going to do everything they can to convince voters to move them past all of those SEC teams in case Notre Dame loses.
The pick: Oregon 49-21

#4 Florida +7 at #10 Florida State
This game has serious national championship implications. If Florida wins, the Gators may very well meet the Alabama/Georgia winner (barring some very creative voting by people who do not want All-SEC again). Florida State may have too far to climb to get into the national championship, but I am curious to see exactly how high the Seminoles would jump if they got the win here. I still like Florida State's defense a lot (fifth in the nation in points allowed), and the offense isn't bad either (seventh in scoring). Florida's defense is just as good and maybe better, but the Gators' offense is inconsistent to say the least. I think that hurts them on the road.
The pick: Florida State 14-10

#21 Oklahoma State +7 at #13 Oklahoma

Bedlam did not go well at all for Jones last season.
He's coming off a career game against WVU, though.

Oh, Bedlam. What to think of this game? Oklahoma State has really found a groove offensively and should give Oklahoma a lot of problems. Landry Jones, though, is coming off an unbelievable performance against West Virginia. It seems crazy to think, though, that Bob Stoops could lose three games at home in one season. He had only lost three at home in his entire career at OU dating back to 1999 before this season began. I think it'll be close, but the Sooners will survive at home.
The pick: Oklahoma 38-35

#8 Stanford -2 at #17 UCLA
Stanford has to win this game to get to the Pac-12 Championship. UCLA does not, as the Bruins have already clinched the South with their win over USC. I think the performances will reflect that. Stanford will play inspired as UCLA looks ahead to the next week. The rematch in the championship game will be close, but I don't think this one will be.
The pick: Stanford 31-17

#12 South Carolina +4 at #11 Clemson
Once upon a time, it looked like South Carolina was bound for the BCS. It's unfortunate that injuries (and a brutal October schedule) slowed them down. The Gamecocks, though, have a defense that should challenge Clemson like ACC teams just haven't.
The pick: South Carolina 28-24

Have a happy Thanksgiving, everyone.

College Football Picks - Week 12

It wasn't the best of weeks last week as I went 6-4 picking winners and an ugly 3-7 against the spread. I knew I was throwing one away by picking TCU, but I didn't think it would get out of hand like that.

Unlike the Marlins, though, I'm not giving up.

I'll add this: props to Texas A&M. Many (myself included) thought the Aggies would get pounded in the SEC. Now, they're on the verge of a BCS berth. Unfortunately, most SEC teams are playing FCS opponents this week, so we'll focus this week's picks elsewhere.

Kent State at Bowling Green -2.5
It's a critical game in the MAC as Kent State (9-1, 6-0) could clinch a spot in the MAC Championship while Bowling Green (7-3, 5-1) is also bidding for the division title. A Bowling Green win would the Falcons would have the inside track heading into the final weekend and bring Ohio (4-2 in the league and visiting Kent State next week) back into the mix. The Falcons may have the best defense in the MAC, and I think it shows at home despite Kent State's strong rushing attack (15th in the FBS in rushing yards).
The pick: Bowling Green 28-24

Northwestern +7 at Michigan State
No team has its heart ripped out quite like Northwestern, which has a knack for losing leads late in the game. Will they finally hold on to one? Like I've said before, if they can get to 20, they stand a good chance to beat offensively challenged Michigan State. I'll hesitantly pick the Wildcats to get a nice W for a change.
The pick: Northwestern 24-21

#22 Rutgers at Cincinnati -6.5
Rutgers has a pretty record at 8-1, but they really haven't beaten anyone. Their best win was over Arkansas, and we all know by now about the mess that Arkansas is. Cincinnati has played better against a better schedule and will beat Rutgers at home.
The pick: Cincinnati 31-24

#12 Oklahoma -11 at West Virginia

If the Sooners win out, they should be BCS-bound.

Remember when it looked like the winner of the Kansas State-West Virginia game would win the Big 12? While it looks like that will be the case, it is amazing how far apart those two teams are now. West Virginia is in free fall, so much so that I worry about them being the one Big 12 win Kansas gets. But before that happens, though, they have to face Oklahoma. Landry Jones might have a career day against this defense. Look for OU to throw all day and be successful at it.
The pick: Oklahoma 56-28

#18 USC -3.5 at #17 UCLA
This one will decide the Pac-12 South champ. I think USC is in for quite a fight in this one, but I think Marquis Lee will make the difference with his big-play ability. USC will survive a shootout.
The pick: USC 49-42

#1 Kansas State -13 at Baylor
The Wildcats are so close to playing for a national title. I don't think their dreams come crashing down in Waco. Their defense is too good, and Collin Klein will keep this team moving forward. I think Kansas State's scare will come next week against Texas, not this week.
The pick: Kansas State 45-28

#13 Stanford +20.5 at #2 Oregon
Oregon is great, but Stanford will have the best defense the Ducks have seen this year. Stanford can slow this game down, and I think 3 touchdowns is a huge number against a team like the Cardinal. Stanford will hang around with Oregon, but the banged-up Ducks will pull away to remain unbeaten.
The pick: Oregon 42-31

#23 Texas Tech +10 at #24 Oklahoma State
Tech has fallen on hard times a bit, as the Red Raiders have lost two of their last three and almost lost to Kansas. I think they're due to turn it around, and they'll play better in Stillwater, but it won't be enough to win. OSU has quietly put together a solid season in the post-Weeden/Blackmon era. Had it not been for a blown call against Texas, OSU would be 5-1 in the Big 12.
The pick: Oklahoma State 38-31

Utah State at #20 Louisiana Tech +3

Colby Cameron might be the best QB you've never heard of.

It's a critical game with regards to the final WAC championship. Both teams enter this contest unbeaten in the league at 4-0. If Louisiana Tech wins, it sets up the possibility of a three-way tie as 4-1 San Jose State awaits the Bulldogs next week. If Utah State wins, that will all but give them the title since they play lowly Idaho (1-9) next week. I'm all for some championship drama, so I'll say Louisiana Tech pulls out the win behind another big game from Colby Cameron, who has still not thrown an interception this year. He has 27 touchdown passes to go along with 3,283 passing yards this year. Look for him to blow past the 3,500 mark this week on his way to what should end up as a 4,000 yard season (he has two games after this, assuming a bowl game).
The pick: Louisiana Tech 45-42

Ohio State +2.5 at Wisconsin
Wisconsin has improved since that rocky start, but I cannot believe they are a favorite against Ohio State. Remember: the Buckeyes are ineligible to receiving votes in the coaches' and BCS polls. However, they are sixth in the AP. 6! Sure, maybe Wisconsin will be tough at home, but I still expect the Buckeyes will run over Bucky.
The pick: Ohio State 33-24

I'll say one more thing about all those SEC teams playing FCS teams this week. Don't be shocked if these games are close for a while. Remember when Georgia Southern put up 341 yards of offense and was within 10 of Alabama at halftime last year? SEC teams treat these games for what they are: a break from the brutal SEC slate, and the FCS teams treat this game for what it is for them: their Super Bowl. Don't be shocked if Georgia Southern (8-2) scares Georgia for a half or Sam Houston (8-2) finds the endzone against Texas A&M. I fully expect all the SEC teams to eventually win by at least three touchdowns, though.

The Embarrassment That is the Miami Marlins

Everyone in the Marlins' front office owes the city of Miami an apology. What they are doing with this franchise is a disgrace.

I hope you enjoyed one year of Jose Reyes, Miami.

A few years ago, they convinced the city to fund the building of a new stadium, and Marlins Park opened this year. They went "all in" and spent a lot money last offseason to build a team worthy of filling the seats in their new park. The team was not as good as they hoped, and now they've had a fire sale. That is a AAA team in Miami right now, and the franchise should be ashamed.

The proposed trade that will send basically every notable player on the Marlins' roster except Giancarlo Stanton to Toronto in exchange for Yunel Escobar and prospects blows my mind. It tells me that the Marlins have no intention of competing this year or any year. They want to field the cheapest team possible and just hope the fans show up.

Spoiler alert: they won't.

To the loyal fans of the Marlins (I realize that's about 10 people), I feel bad for you. Fans deserve better than this. Sure, Miami is not the best city for a pro sports franchise. The fans aren't that loyal. Sure, if you put a winner out there, they'll fill the place up. But, if the product stinks, the city of Miami will disappear on you. I suppose you could say that for a lot of cities, but it seems to be especially true there.

But don't blame the fans for this. If baseball wasn't working in Miami, Jeffery Loria and Major League Baseball shouldn't have forced it. They should have moved the franchise. Where? I don't know. I'd give Charlotte, San Antonio, Louisville, Memphis, Nashville, Omaha, Oklahoma City, Las Vegas or even a redo in Montreal a shot. It's too late, now, though. The stadium is built and brand-spanking new. You should put a watchable product out there.

Fans are upset. Players are upset, and tax payers are upset. That last one is the biggest issue: people who really don't care that the team is there had to pay to build that fantastic new stadium so Loria could field an unwatchable product. It was once predicted that Miami would be in the World Series by 2015, but I don't know if they'll ever finish above .500 again with the current ownership.

Why would any half decent free agent want to sign with Miami now? Why would any talented young Marlins' prospect like Giancarlo Stanton agree to an extension? Even if they say "we're committed. We're seriously going to build now!" Why would anyone believe them? They said they were "all in" back in December 2011. They were bailing out by July and have hit rock bottom in November. Any free agent who signs in Miami will be going there because nobody else wants to sign him. Any free agents who are in demand will go to a franchise committed to winning, a franchise that they feel confident won't give up after four months of baseball.

I expect attendance in Miami to look something like this
in 2013 and basically every year until the team moves.

It's not like we've never seen this before in Miami, either. After winning the 1997 World Series, the then-Florida Marlins completely dismantled what was a powerhouse. Moises Alou, Bobby Bonilla, Kevin Brown, Gary Sheffield and Charles Johnson were all dealt within the following seven months.

They did a similar thing after winning it all in 2003. They traded Derrek Lee and let Ugueth Urbina and Ivan Rodriguez walk as free agents that offseason. Brad Penny was traded a few months later. They hung on to Josh Beckett for a few seasons before eventually trading him with Mike Lowell to Boston in 2005.

I can't blame the Miami fans for being apathetic towards this franchise. They keep building up winners then tearing them down. There are no iconic players that stay there for years that the fans can really get used to.

The team will claim it's the opposite: that the fans don't come out, so they have to keep rebuilding.

Whatever the case is, the fact is this: Major League Baseball does not work in Miami. No matter who is to blame, it simply doesn't work. It's just too bad they built that stadium. Now, they have to live with this mistake for decades as they stare at that all those empty seats.

College Football Picks - Week 11

I was just 6-4 on winners last week, but I had my best week yet against the spread, going 7-3. Ironically, all of my losers were in Texas, where I live. Go figure.

Iowa State at #17 Texas -10
Has Texas turned a corner with its win over Texas Tech? I doubt it. The 'Horns would still get crushed if they played Oklahoma again tomorrow. The question is if they'll have enough to beat Iowa State at home this weekend. I think they should be able to outscore the Cyclones in Austin. I still can't trust that defense, though. I think Sam Gordon could get a few points against those guys.
The pick: Texas 33-21

Wisconsin at Indiana +5.5
What if I told you the winner of this game could get to the Rose Bowl? Yep. With Ohio State and Penn State banned from postseason play, the winner of this game is in the driver's seat in the Leaders division. Wisconsin is 3-2 in the Big Ten while Indiana is 2-3. The only other teams in the division are 0-5 Illinois and Purdue. The winner of the Leaders division will obviously go to the Big Ten championship game, which decides the Rose Bowl participant.
Neither Wisconsin nor Indiana has an impressive win, but I give a slight edge to Wisconsin in an ugly game.
The pick: Wisconsin 16-13

#24 Northwestern +9.5 at Michigan
Remember when Michigan was a top ten team? Not so much now. It's hard to trust this team to break out and dominate Northwestern. It's also hard to trust Northwestern to go on the road and get a huge win that could get them back in the Big Ten title hunt. Michigan will win, but it won't be pretty.
The pick: Michigan 31-24

#9 Louisville -1.5 at Syracuse

Louisville hasn't played the greatest schedule, but
Teddy Bridgewater has the Cards unbeaten.

This line just seems way too small to me, even on the road. Louisville, while clearly not in the class of the top four teams in the BCS, is unbeaten and a clear class above the rest of the Big East. If he had any wins over significant competition, quarterback Teddy Bridgewater might be a dark horse Heisman candidate. He is completing 70% of his passes for 2,434 yards with 18 touchdowns to just 4 picks. He'll lead the Cards to victory by more than a field goal.
The pick: Louisville 35-24

Missouri at Tennessee -3
Well, Missouri has an SEC win. Tennessee does not. Derek Dooley may or not have to pack up his office at the end of the season. If he loses this one, though, that pretty much means the season finale between Tennessee and Kentucky will determine who finishes dead last in the SEC. If Tennessee drops this one, Dooley can probably go ahead and get those moving boxes. I think the Vols will step up at home and grant him a stay of execution.
The pick: Tennessee 33-27

#14 Oregon State at #11 Stanford -4.5
I look for a tough defensive battle in this one. The Cardinal has moved Kevin Hogan into the starting role, and he might not have to score too many points against Oregon State. The Beavers have played very well, but their schedule is getting tougher. This Stanford defense will be the toughest they've seen.
The pick: Stanford 21-14

#15 Texas A&M at #1 Alabama -13.5
I'll give Texas A&M credit. The Aggies are much better than I thought they would be, and it's largely because of Johnny Manziel. The freshman is great and may be in the Heisman mix by the time he's a junior. However, I do not think Texas A&M (or anyone for that matter) can win in Tuscaloosa. Alabama is on another level, and the Aggies' offense has been contained by the SEC elite (Florida, LSU). Alabama will not have a letdown.
The pick: Alabama 35-20

West Virginia +9.5 at Oklahoma State
I know West Virginia is struggling, but I was surprised that they are almost a 10-point dog against Oklahoma State, whose defense is not immune to the big play and still has a shaky quarterback situation due to injuries. I expect a shootout with OSU winning by a touchdown.
The pick: Oklahoma State 49-42

#21 Mississippi State at #7 LSU -15
Both of these teams are 7-2 in the SEC, but they're a very different 7-2. LSU still looks like one of the best teams in the nation while Mississippi State has yet to get a signature win. The Bulldogs won't get one in Death Valley. They got crushed 38-7 by Alabama, and I expect a similar outcome here.
The pick: LSU 31-14

#2 Kansas State at TCU +7.5

Will "Optimus Klein" play? Will he play well?
It will be interesting to see K-State without their leader.

Wisely, Vegas took a while to post a line on this due to the uncertain status of Collin Klein. Bill Snyder said he expected Klein to play, but he's pretty tight-lipped otherwise. I've heard it said: there are only two reasons to disclose injuries: to help your opponent and to help gamblers. So, I don't blame Snyder for staying quiet about it
Obviously Klein makes a HUGE difference, and I have no idea if he plays or how well. But, it's my brother's birthday, and he's a TCU alum. The BCS needs some chaos, doesn't it? The Frogs shock the world, overachieving on defense against a hobbled Klein and Trevone Boykin makes some big plays at home. Happy birthday, bro.
The pick: TCU 30-28

College Football Picks - Week 10

Well, after going 10-0 two weeks ago, I knew I couldn't do it two weeks in a row. Last week was nothing to celebrate as I went 5-5 on winners and 4-6 against the spread.

Before the season started, this was the week we circled as the one that could decide the national championship participants as USC/Oregon and Alabama/LSU had potential as national semifinals. That's not exactly true now, but those games could still have a big impact on the BCS picture.

Penn State -3.5 at Purdue
I doubted Penn State last week, and while I was right about them losing to a very good Ohio State team, I'll give Bill O'Brien credit. He's done a nice job with a depleted roster. He certainly deserves to be in the coach of the year discussion, as this team was once thought to be a 3-8 team. With a win this week, they will be a very respectable 6-4.
The pick: Penn State 24-20

Tulsa +9 at Arkansas

The Razorbacks' struggles have been well-documented. The fact that Tulsa is 7-1 really hasn't. The Golden Hurricane can absolutely win this game. Tulsa has plenty of weapons on offense, and if quarterback Cody Green returns from injury, I think TU can get the underachieving Hogs. I'll pick the upset.
The pick: Tulsa 31-28

#1 Alabama at #5 LSU +8

Will Alabama's title dreams "go to die" this week against LSU?

While it's not the battle of 1 vs 2 that some had anticipated in August, it's still a huge game. Alabama looks nearly unstoppable, but this is the one game on the schedule that might make you say "maaaaybe they slip up there."
Playing in Death Valley at night is a heck of an atmosphere, and you know that crowd will be rabid after the way last year ended. Plus, LSU fans certainly feel they are still in the SEC and national championship picture. With a win here, they absolutely are.
After the win over South Carolina, Les Miles said Tiger Stadium is where "championship dreams go to die." I don't think Alabama's title dreams will die. The Tide is too good, but they will get a good fight from LSU.
The pick: Alabama 17-10

Arizona State at #11 Oregon State -4
Well, the Oregon State Cinderella run hit midnight last week. But, the Beavers aren't going to completely fall off the map in the Pac-12. Playing at home, they can beat Arizona State. Sean Mannion simply turned the ball over too much on the road in his first game back from injury. He wasn't ready, and the Beavers are going to go with the healthy Cody Vaz this week. The mistakes won't be an issue at home.
The pick: Oregon State 24-17

#20 Nebraska +1.5 at Michigan State
If you can score 20, you can beat Michigan State. I think Nebraska can score 20. Gosh, are we REALLY still going to let the Big Ten someone to the Rose Bowl?
The pick: Nebraska 21-17

TCU at West Virginia -5

Saturday's meeting with TCU could be a tipping point
for West Virginia. A bounce back win or a crushing loss?

The two Big 12 newcomers meet. Remember when West Virginia was ranked in the top five a month ago? Two embarrassing losses later, the Mountaineers are now an afterthought in the league. Can the right the ship coming off a bye?
The problem for TCU is that the Frogs is that the back half of their schedule is a lot tougher than the first, and I'm not sure they will win another game. They looked tough against Texas Tech, but they really collapsed in Stillwater last week. Yes, West Virginia got horribly exposed, but I think Geno Smith will have a bounce back game after a week off.
The pick: West Virginia 49-38

Oklahoma State at #2 Kansas State -9
OSU did a nice job bouncing back after a slow start against TCU, but I can't believe that this game will be a one-possession game late. Kansas State is just on another level, and the Wildcats are at home. Optimus Klein will have fun against that OSU defense.
The pick: Kansas State 45-31

#23 Texas at #18 Texas Tech -6.5
I've lost all faith in Texas. The Longhorns are a mess. They should never need a last-second touchdown to beat Kansas. I think Texas Tech throws the ball all over the place, and Red Raiders' receivers slip through the bad tackling all afternoon in a lopsided win.
The pick: Texas Tech 49-28

#15 Texas A&M at #16 Mississippi State +7
I know the Bulldogs got crushed by Alabama, but doesn't everyone? I'm still not 100% sold on Texas A&M against the top of the SEC. Mississippi State is more middle of the road, but I think the Aggies will have their first experience of going on the road in the SEC and losing to a team they should probably beat.
The pick: Mississippi State 28-24

#4 Oregon -8 at #17 USC
This is another matchup we thought could be a national semifinal back in August. Now? Not so much. USC still has its eyes on the Rose Bowl, though. The Ducks, on the other hand, appear to be on a collision course with Alabama. The Oregon offense is explosive, but I don't think their defense gets enough credit. Oregon will show up on both sides of the ball and comfortably win at USC.
The pick: Oregon 42-27