College Football Picks: Week 14

Last week was pretty good for picking winners (8-3), but not so much against the spread (4-7). Rivalry week is gone, though, and now it's on to championship week.

The tough part about picking championship week: there is almost always one big upset, one that throws a wrench into the BCS picture that we think we all have figured out. Picking championship week without picking an upset is almost like filling out an NCAA tournament bracket without picking a 12 to beat a 5. I feel like there might be an upset, but I'm just not sure where that upset will be. I might have to go conservative and pick favorites, but we'll see.

Pac-12 Championship (Friday)
UCLA at #9 Oregon (-31.5)

The first Pac-12 Championship Game features Oregon and...
 a 6-6 UCLA team with a lame duck coach. Hooray?

A 31.5-point spread in a conference championship game seems ridiculous. Based on what we've seen from UCLA this year, though, it might not be. UCLA lucked into the Pac-12 South title thanks to USC being on probation and ineligible for postseason play. I can't remember a team playing in the conference championship game with a coach who had been fired, but that will be the case for UCLA and Rick Neuheisel on Friday.
The Ducks are way too powerful, and they're at home. Giving UCLA almost 32 points seems risky, but I can't ignore the wide gaps in talent and results between these two squads.
The pick: Oregon 45-9

MAC Championship (Friday)
MAC: Ohio vs Northern Illinois (-4)
These teams aren't used to playing this late in the week. These teams combined to play exactly zero Saturday games in November. Northern Illinois played three Tuesday games and a Friday game while Ohio played four midweek games in the past month. That's life in the MAC. Northern Illinois scores nearly 40 points a game and rushes for over 255 yards per game (eighth in the country). I'll take the Huskies.
The pick: Northern Illinois 48-42

SEC Championship
#1 LSU (-13) vs #14 Georgia
I've made my opinion about LSU pretty clear, and my thoughts really aren't much different than most others. LSU is far and away the best team in the country. Even if the Tigers lose this game to Georgia, this team would still have the most impressive body of work and deserves to be in the BCS title game.
I tip my cap to Georgia head coach Mark Richt, who answered his critics and won out after many fans were calling for his head after an 0-2 start. I don't mean to take anything away from what Georgia did, but this next comment is hard to dispute: Georgia had a pretty light schedule by SEC standards. Georgia did not play LSU, Alabama, or Arkansas. Georgia got Auburn at home and (as always) Florida on a neutral field. The toughest SEC game on Georgia's schedule was #12 South Carolina at home, a 45-42 loss. Quite frankly, Georgia's best win might be the road win at Georgia Tech last week.
Georgia is a good team that will certainly deserve a trip to the Cotton Bowl or Capital One Bowl. However, the Bulldogs have not done anything like LSU has. The Tigers are on another level. Georgia may hang around for a while in Atlanta, but I think LSU pulls away and wins comfortably in the end.
The pick: LSU 38-24

Settling the Big East
#23 West Virginia (-1) at South Florida (Thursday)
Once upon a time, South Florida got an impressive win at Notre Dame and looked like a legit Big East contender. Now, the Bulls are 1-5 in the Big East and need this win just to get bowl eligible. The Big East will come down to Louisville, West Virginia, and Cincinnati. West Virginia needs to win this game and hope Cincinnati wins to force a three-way tie, which would be settled by BCS standings. Since West Virginia is the only Big East team ranked in the BCS, the Mountaineers would very likely get the Big East BCS bid if it came down to a three-way tie.
I have to take the Mountaineers against this free-falling South Florida team. While the Mountaineers' offense hasn't turned out to be as explosive as Dana Holgorsen might have hoped, it should be enough this week.
The pick: West Virginia 28-24

Settling the Big East, Part 2
Connecticut (+10) at Cincinnati
Cincinnati needs a win and a West Virginia loss to win the Big East's BCS bid. That would result in a tie with Louisville, and Cincinnati won the head-to-head with Louisville. The Cards are pulling for a Cincinnati loss, because that would mean Louisville goes to the BCS thanks to a head-to-head win over West Virginia.
There has to be some drama this week, and I'll pick this game for that. Connecticut will keep it close and make Big East football fans sweat, but Cincinnati will pull it out.
The pick: Cincinnati 23-21

ACC Championship
#5 Virginia Tech (-7.5) vs #20 Clemson
Speaking of teams in free fall, I am off the Clemson bandwagon. Done. Finished. The Tigers can't score anymore, and they can't stop anyone either. Virginia Tech does not belong in the BCS title conversation, but the Hokies are playing very well and do deserve the ACC title. I'll take Frank Beamer's guys in a rout.
The pick: Virginia Tech 35-14

Big Ten Championship
#13 Michigan State (+9.5) vs #15 Wisconsin

Montee Ball will make one last Heisman case to help
Wisconsin avenge the loss to Michigan State.

The Badgers attempt to avenge the heartbreaking loss that derailed their national title hopes back in October. The Spartans stunned Bucky with arguably the most memorable play from this season. Michigan State has a tough defense, and I expect another fight from Sparty. Wisconsin, though, has a Heisman contender it can lean on. Two months ago, that Heisman contender would have been Russell Wilson. He's still a tough customer, but Montee Ball has emerged as the Wisconsin leader. The junior has 34 touchdowns, nine more than anyone else (Kansas State's Collin Klein is second with 25). I'll take Wisconsin and Ball to grind out a tough win and secure a Rose Bowl berth.
The pick: Wisconsin 30-27

Conference USA Championship
#24 Southern Miss vs #6 Houston (-13)
Biggest Southern Miss fans in America: TCU. If Houston loses, TCU has a slight chance to leap to 16 in the BCS and steal a bid (the #18 Frogs could jump the Big Ten loser and maybe Georgia or Baylor to get to 16. That would make TCU the highest-ranked non-AQ conference champion, ahead of the Big East champ, and therefore into the BCS). However, I wouldn't encourage TCU fans to get their hopes up.
Houston truly proved itself last week in Tulsa. The Cougars blew out a confident, talented Tulsa team, and I expect more of the same in Houston this week. Houston's offense is explosive, and the defense is better than I thought it would be. Case Keenum will make one more Heisman statement as Houston cruises its way to a BCS bid.
The pick: Houston 56-24
  
State championship?
#22 Texas at #17 Baylor (-2.5)
Texas won't be winning a conference title this year, but the Longhorns can at least win state. A win over Baylor would give Texas a clean sweep over in-state rivals Texas Tech, Texas A&M, and the Bears (and Rice, if you want to pile it on).
Unfortunately for Texas, Baylor has an explosive offense led by one of the most exciting players in the country. Baylor also doesn't collapse in the second half like the Aggies tend to do. Robert Griffin will be looking to make his last Heisman statement before heading to New York, where he should at least be a finalist for the award. I think the 'Horns' defense is great and should slow him down a bit. I still don't have much faith in that banged up Texas offense, though. I'll take Griffin to score just enough to win and cover.
The pick: Baylor 28-24

Bedlam
#10 Oklahoma (+3.5) at #3 Oklahoma State

Cowboys and Sooners for the Big 12 title. Should be a dandy.

I saved the best for last (insert Vanessa Williams joke here).
This the game folks in Oklahoma have been anticipating since the season began. While it fell short of being the national semifinal that some had hoped it would be, it will still decide the Big 12 title, making it arguably the most anticipated Bedlam game ever.
Considering the history of this rivalry (the Sooners have an absurd 82-16-7 advantage), it seems crazy that OU is an underdog. It's about this year, though, and this year, OSU certainly looks strong. The offense has been clicking from day one, and the defense has been tough and opportunistic.
The Sooners, though, still own this rivalry and are a legitimate threat to end Oklahoma State's dreams of capturing a Big 12 title and a BCS bid. OU has a strong front seven defensively, but the secondary has been questioned all year. That plays into Oklahoma State's strength of passing the ball all over the field. The Sooners are a little banged up, too, but they won't use that as an excuse. OU fully expects to go into Stillwater and win with a tough, aggressive defense. However, I think the Cowboys are sound enough on offense to finally get that breakthrough win. It should be a great one, but I give the edge to the Pokes.
The pick: Oklahoma State 31-28

There may not be much drama as it relates to the BCS national championship, but then again, maybe there will be. See you next time for the bowl picks.

BCS Championship Game Should be LSU and...

Nobody.

Yes, the BCS Championship Game should be LSU and nobody else. We don't need to have a title game to determine the best team in the country. To me, it's pretty obvious who that is. Even if LSU goes to Atlanta this Saturday and gets upset by Georgia in the SEC Championship, the Tigers' body of work is unmatched. A one-loss LSU team would still be the most accomplished team in the country.

No doubt about it: the Tigers have been dominant.

The Tigers have done everything, answered every challenge. LSU has played about as difficult a schedule as a team can realistically play. Third-ranked Oregon a neutral field? A 40-27 win that wasn't even as close as the score would indicate. A road trip to #16 West Virginia? A 47-21 rout.

Then the Tigers marched through the stronger division of toughest conference in the country. They won the much (over)hyped game at second-ranked Alabama. They blasted the up-and-coming, third-ranked Razorbacks 41-17. Florida and Auburn both came to Baton Rouge as ranked teams and lost by more than four touchdowns.

The final count: seven wins over ranked opponents (Georgia in the SEC title game could be the eighth). No other team has more than four. Only one team (Alabama) has more than three. LSU has 12 wins overall. In half of those games, the opponent failed to get 10 points. The opponent scored more than 11 in only three.

No one is going to argue that LSU is the clear number one. In my opinion, LSU has lapped the field.

That said, I'm not completely serious about not having a title game. This is the format that college football programs agreed to at the beginning of the season, so we need to play it out. The contenders to get that last shot at powerful LSU are pretty obvious, and they all have their pros and cons.

Houston (12-0): Beat someone better than Tulsa. Then we'll talk. I know it's unfortunate that there was no one on Houston's schedule on that level, but that's life in college football. Ask Boise State and TCU. They know this drill.

Stanford (11-1): It stinks, but the old "you didn't even win your division" argument hurts a lot, especially when Oregon, the team that beat Stanford, has two losses and is out of the national title picture. Stanford is certainly a solid team, a BCS bowl team, but not a BCS finalist.

Virginia Tech (11-1): Houston's schedule is almost more impressive. There were only two ranked teams on the Hokies' slate: they lost to 13th ranked Clemson, who has since tanked, and they defeated #21 Georgia Tech. The Hokies just haven't played or beaten many quality teams. Orange Bowl? Sure, Virginia Tech can have that (assuming it gets a measure of revenge against free-falling Clemson in the ACC Championship). Nothing beyond that though.

Alabama (11-1): Almost as dominant as LSU, Alabama is a unanimous #2 in the latest AP Poll behind the unanimous #1 Tigers. There aren't quite as many big wins, but Alabama has been just as dominant in the SEC with the exception of one game. That game was at home to those LSU Tigers, of course. The situation reminds me of 2006, when #1 Ohio State defeated #2 Michigan. One big argument against a rematch then was that Ohio State had passed its test against Michigan and shouldn't have to do it again. Voters boosted Florida into that number two spot, and Chris Leak (and a freshman named Tim Tebow) led the Gators to the national title. I think the "test has been passed" argument applies even more to LSU/Alabama. Unlike Michigan in 2006, Alabama had its shot at home. The Tide had its chance and didn't come through. Even so, few people can argue that Alabama is the second-best team in the country based on its entire body of work.

Under tough circumstances, OSU lost to Iowa State, but
would a Bedlam win make voters take a second look at OSU?

Oklahoma State (10-1): The overtime road loss to Iowa State is so frustrating. It seems almost inappropriate to bring up the plane crash that morning that killed women's basketball coaches Kurt Budke and Miranda Serna as a reason why the team may not have been focused. However, it also seems naive to think that such a tragic event (especially in that community, which experienced a similar tragedy almost 11 years earlier) wasn't at least on the players' minds the entire day and night. Outside influences aside, Oklahoma State lost to a mediocre team. That's the bottom line. None of the four teams listed above have lost to mediocre, unranked teams.
The Cowboys have one more chance to make a statement, though. If OSU can get past Oklahoma, the team that has dominated the Bedlam rivalry for decades (82-16-7 all-time), that would give voters something to think about. It would give the Cowboys four wins over ranked opponents (the same as Alabama, and more than anyone else besides LSU) and a conference title (something Stanford and Alabama will not have). Is OSU a better team than Alabama? Maybe not. Then again, how can we know for sure if OSU never takes the field against either LSU or Alabama?

My final conclusion: if you want the second best team in the country, that team is Alabama. If you want another deserving team that hasn't had its shot at LSU yet, that would be Oklahoma State if it wins Bedlam. If OSU loses Bedlam, forget it. The rematch is inevitable and the only fair option.

Final thought: if Alabama gets its rematch and wins, LSU should get one, too. In Baton Rouge.

College Football Picks: Week 13

The good news last week was that I went 7-3 picking winners and 5-4 against the spread. I bet you can guess two of the games I missed, though. I was way off on Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. Then again, so was everyone else. Still, those games put a huge damper on what could have been (and still might be) the most anticipated Bedlam game ever. It's just part of the annual November shock that tends to happen every year in college football. It reminds us once again to stop speculating in mid-October that we'll have five or six unbeaten teams. In the end, we rarely have more than two.

No sense cursing over last week's mistakes though. It's rivalry weekend, and I love my rivalry games. There were so many intriguing match-ups, it was tough trimming this week's blog down to just ten games. So, I went to eleven.

The locals
#8 Houston at Tulsa (+3) (Friday)

G.J. Kinne and the Hurricane are out to not only bust
Houston's BCS dreams, but also win a conference title.

I said a few weeks ago that this game could have an impact on the BCS, and here we are. Houston has made its way into the top ten, and Tulsa has a shot to play spoiler. Not only that, Tulsa has an outside shot at getting into the BCS itself. (A lot has to happen there, though: including TCU losing to UNLV, Tulsa going on to win the conference, and a handful of other top 25 teams dropping, but that's a topic for next week.)
The winner of this game not only wins the Conference USA West division, but will also host the C-USA Championship next week. I think Bobby Lewis said it best about these two teams: they are about the same. Trade schedules, and Tulsa is unbeaten and ranked way too high in the BCS while Houston would be 8-3 and underrated. Both are scoring a lot of points. Both are unbeaten (and rarely challenged) in Conference USA. Tulsa is the home 'dog, so I have to like the Hurricane. Houston may have the higher profile quarterback, but G.J. Kinne just has so many weapons at his disposal. That includes the dynamic combination of Trey Watts and Ja'Terian Douglas in the backfield. Those two impress me more every week. Look for a lot of points, but maybe just a bit more on the Tulsa side.
The pick: Tulsa 48-45

Iowa State (+28) at #9 Oklahoma
The Sooners have to be hurting after their first ever loss to Baylor. Considering what happened in Waco and in Ames last week, that 28-point line seems ridiculously high. Although, a 30-point win by Oklahoma in Norman certainly wouldn't shock me. I'm sure Bob Stoops had quite a pep talk for his guys after last week's embarrassment. The defensive secondary is a big concern for the Sooners, but I don't see Jared Barnett torching the Sooners the way Robert Griffin did. OU should certainly bounce back at home, but 28 points is just too high for me, especially when you consider the injuries they are dealing with. Plus, once the win is secured, I'm sure Bob Stoops will pull all of his top players to make sure OU is as healthy as possible heading into Bedlam, where the Big 12 title and a trip to the Fiesta Bowl will be on the line (and maybe the national championship for Oklahoma State). OU wins comfortably, but Iowa State covers.
The pick: Oklahoma 49-24 

Turkey with a side of bitter hatred
#25 Texas at Texas A&M (-8) (Thursday)
After your Thanksgiving dinner, watch the Aggies and Longhorns meet for what will unfortunately be the last time in the foreseeable future. It's a shame that one school's obsession with a TV network and another school's obsession with getting out of the other's shadow has led to this, but that's the way it is. While Texas A&M does have a knack for blowing second half leads this season, Texas has a knack for bad offensive play all game long. The Aggies should be able to score plenty, and I'm not sure Texas will. The Aggies get the last laugh. Win and cover. Here's to hoping that somewhere down the road, these two put their egos aside and play each other again in all sports.
The pick: Texas A&M 31-21

We knew them when
Pittsburgh (+7) at West Virginia (Friday)
Former TU head coach Todd Graham and former OSU offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen meet in the Backyard Brawl. These two hate each other going back to Holgorsen's days at Houston, when he accused Graham's Golden Hurricane players of faking injuries to slow down Houston's fast-paced offense. Naturally, Graham took offense to that.
The Mountaineers' offense hasn't been quite as high-powered as Holgorsen might have hoped, but I think it will be enough to beat Pitt in Morgantown. The Panthers will play well enough to keep it close, and hopefully they don't have to fake any injuries to do so.
The pick: West Virginia 24-20

The big one
#3 Arkansas (+13) at #1 LSU (Friday)

There's a lot more on the line than this boot in Baton Rouge.

This is the game that has BCS officials holding their breath. They certainly want one undefeated, unquestionably deserving team in the national championship game. If Arkansas wins, there is total chaos with several teams all legitimately laying claim to those two BCS title game spots. An Arkansas win not only means LSU is no longer a lock for the BCS title game, but the SEC West would suddenly be in doubt, as a three-way tie between these two and Alabama (assuming the Tide wins the Iron Bowl) would come down to a BCS tiebreaker. I'm not sure what is more foolish: picking against LSU or picking against the inevitability that is BCS chaos.
Arkansas is great and certainly worthy of a BCS slot, but I have to look at its game against Alabama to determine how it will fare in Baton Rouge. The Hogs couldn't run the ball (but who can against Alabama?), and gave up big plays on defense and special teams that allowed Alabama to pull away for a 38-14 rout. However, Arkansas was still trying to figure out how to replace the injured Knile Davis, who broke his ankle in the preseason. The offense is really clicking now on the strength of Tyler Wilson's arm. Plus, Davis has actually been practicing for three weeks. I doubt he plays, but don't be shocked if he makes an appearance.
That doesn't change the fact that LSU still has an elite defense and plenty of skill on offense. LSU is a special team that has answered every challenge this season. The Tigers have held opponents to 11 points or fewer in nine of their eleven games. Arkansas is talented enough to keep it close, but I just can't go against this Tiger team in Baton Rouge. LSU fans will be singing "Hey, Fighting Tigers" all the way to Atlanta.
The pick: LSU 30-21

The Iron Bowl
#2 Alabama at #24 Auburn (+21)
Roll Tide. War Eagle. It's one of the best rivalries in sports, and it's hard for those of us outside of the state of Alabama to fully understand. The Crimson Tide has an elephant on its sideline, and Tiger fans yell "War Eagle." Whatever. It's almost always a great game, which is why I have to take those 21 points when picking the spread.
Auburn, unfortunately, could use those 21 points in the actual game. Alabama's defense is fantastic. How it gave up 21 points to Georgia Southern last week can only be explained by saying "they didn't care," and maybe that's true. They care this week. Keep in mind that second-ranked Alabama could almost lock itself into the national championship game with a win, and it might even win the SEC West if Arkansas beats LSU. That would create a three-way tie in the SEC West that would be settled by the BCS. So, anything could happen there. As for this game, Alabama should shut Auburn down and score enough to win, but not to cover.
The pick: Alabama 24-6

Fool me once...
#22 Notre Dame at #6 Stanford (-6.5)

Look for Stanford to make one last BCS statement against ND.

After Notre Dame's performance against USC, I told myself I would not be fooled by Notre Dame over the following four games. I would not let myself be convinced that an 8-3 Notre Dame team has figured it out, won't turn the ball over and can beat Stanford.
Thankfully, I haven't forgotten the USC game and how Notre Dame has fared against really talented teams. That 16-14 win over Boston College certainly didn't prove anything. Stanford is one of the best teams in the country. Notre Dame, quite simply, is not. Stanford will not only win, but the Cardinal might try to blow out the Irish to get some BCS style points.
The pick: Stanford 45-24

Wait until Urban gets here
Ohio State at #15 Michigan (-7.5)
It's another one of the great rivalries in sports. Unfortunately, Ohio State is rebuilding. The Buckeyes might get a big win off the field if/when Urban Meyer becomes their new head coach. On the field, Denard Robinson should lead Michigan to plenty of points at home to cover.
The pick: Michigan 30-17

Follow the Leader
#19 Penn State at #16 Wisconsin (-14.5)
Pretty simple here: the winner takes the Big Ten Leaders division. As uninspiring as Wisconsin has been on the road, Wisconsin has been close to unstoppable at home. Penn State's defense is tough, but the Badgers' offense is tougher. Wisconsin should win this game with ease.
The pick: Wisconsin 40-21

What happened?
 #17 Clemson (+4) at #12 South Carolina
Once upon a time, Clemson's offense looked unstoppable. It now seems quite stoppable for some reason. A 37-13 loss to NC State when the Tigers still had an outside shot at the BCS title game? Awful. Once a big buyer on Clemson, I'm not so sure anymore. I'm also not sure what to think about South Carolina. The last team to beat Georgia, South Carolina barely got past Tennessee, Florida and Mississippi State. I will reluctantly say Clemson's offense has a revival against the hated Gamecocks.
The pick: Clemson 31-28

Clean, old fashioned hate
#13 Georgia at #23 Georgia Tech (+6)
It's a rivalry my family knows very well. Georgia could easily get caught looking ahead because the Bulldogs know they play one of the top teams in the country next week in the SEC Championship. Georgia Tech's option attack can be frustrating and will keep the game close, but I'll take the Dawgs to pull this one out before attempting to bust the BCS next week.
The pick: Georgia 28-24

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.

College Football Picks: Week 12

It wasn't a bad week in Week 11: 7-3 picking winners, 5-5 vs the spread. After some great games that really shook up the BCS picture last week, Week 12 lacks any really great games (which is probably why College GameDay is at SMU vs. Houston. Yuck). So, (jinx alert) while I feel pretty good about picking winners, the spread is where the real challenge lies this week. So, if the spread doesn't add any excitement to these picks, maybe a bunch of random video links will.

The locals
#2 Oklahoma State (-26.5) at Iowa State (Friday)

Brandon Weeden should not only be in the Heisman
discussion, I think he could be the front-runner.

The Cowboys can see their goals. They are so close to the finish line, but they still have to get there. The Big 12 title and a BCS championship game berth are right there on the horizon. Only two games remain: the most anticipated Bedlam game ever... and this lousy Friday trip to Ames. None of the other Big 12 bottom feeders (Kansas, Texas Tech, Baylor) have challenged OSU. There's no reason to believe Iowa State will. There is no real intimidating home field advantage there. OSU has been in a zone lately where it seems that it can't do anything wrong. Cowboys win and cover. Bring on Bedlam.
The pick: Oklahoma State 56-20

#5 Oklahoma (-15.5) at #22 Baylor
When you look at the bottom of the Top 25, there are a lot of mediocre teams down there with three or four losses. Baylor is one of them. A few weeks ago, I might have thought Baylor was a real trap game for OU. It still might be, but Baylor's overtime win over Kansas did nothing for its credibility. The Sooners are dealing with injuries, but not enough for them to be too concerned about a trip to Waco. Landry Jones is still playing, and there's plenty of talent on the depth chart to make the Sooners confident about Baylor. Then again, have they ever not been confident about Baylor?
The pick: Oklahoma 49-27

Tulsa (-13.5) at UTEP
Back to the topic of teams with their goals in sight, Tulsa knows that its game with Houston in two weeks will decide the Conference USA West division no matter what happens this week. That's no reason to fall asleep, though. TU still needs to win this game if it potentially wants to host the C-USA title game should the Hurricane make it there. Tulsa looks stronger every week. El Paso is always a tricky place to play, but I'd be stunned if Tulsa collapsed a week before the Houston game. Although UTEP did only lose to Houston by a touchdown, TU is playing so well right now. Tulsa gets it done and even covers on the road.
The pick: Tulsa 40-24

Meanwhile, across the state line...
Mississippi State (+13) at #6 Arkansas

Don't rule Arkansas out of the BCS or the national championship.

We're all excited about our teams in the state of Oklahoma, but let us not forget about our neighbors to the east. Do not rule Arkansas out of the national championship game. Seriously. I'm not saying they're the best team in the country. Like many, I think they're the third best team in the SEC West. However, imagine this scenario: Arkansas beats LSU and crushes Georgia in the SEC title game, OSU wins Bedlam, and Auburn upsets Alabama. Couldn't the national title game be OSU and Arkansas? Or take it a step further: OU gets upset by Baylor and then beats OSU. Arkansas could meet Oregon for everything, right? Maybe, but that's getting way ahead of ourselves.
Arkansas still needs to beat Mississippi State first. Remember when we thought the Bulldogs were poised to make a run and contend in the SEC? That didn't quite happen. The Bulldogs have only one win in the conference, but they really don't get blown out. They hang tough but just can't score enough (19-6 loss to LSU, 24-7 to Alabama, 24-10 to Georgia). Don't be surprised if Mississippi State hangs around and makes Arkansas sweat a little. The Hogs won't fall at home though.
The pick: Arkansas 24-14

Seriously?
#13 Kansas State (+9.5) at #23 Texas
This is the most confusing line of the week. Texas isn't that strong to begin with. Now, the Longhorns have lost Fozzy Whittaker for the season and their top two freshman backs are also dinged up. Kansas State may not be loaded with four and five-star prospects like Texas, but it is loaded up with well-coached players who are finding a way to win every week. Kansas State +9.5 points is a spread that seems too good to be true, so I'm definitely taking that one. Could Texas play well enough at home to knock off an overachieving K-State team? Maybe. However, Kansas State is not only healthier, but simply playing much better football right now. Give me the Wildcats for not only the cover, but the win as well.
The pick: Kansas State 36-30

I am Legend
#16 Nebraska at #18 Michigan (-3)
There's a three-way tie atop the Big Ten Legends division between these two and Michigan State. So, this is obviously a very important game in that race. Big Ten teams have been up and down all year, and both of these teams know that. As inconsistent as Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson can be, I'll take him over Taylor Martinez. With that in mind, I'll take the Wolverines at home.
The pick: Michigan 28-24

If it's good enough for GameDay...
SMU at #11 Houston (-19.5)

Wild guess: Corso will rock this mascot head Saturday.

Yes, this is where ESPN will be on Saturday. I'd be shocked if Lee Corso put on anything other than a Cougar head. Like I referenced earlier, Houston is on a collision course with Tulsa. I can't see Case Keenum falling in what is finally his senior day (this is the 23-year old's sixth year on campus). Houston will do what Houston does: throw it a lot, score a lot, and win.
The pick: Houston 56-27


The Fightin' Catholics
Boston College (+24.5) at Notre Dame
I've gotten requests from certain people to pick Notre Dame every week. So, here goes (there are no other games I really want to pick anyway). The Irish sure are good at blowing out bad teams. They are getting a lot points here at home. BC, though, always gives Notre Dame headaches. The Eagles are really down this year (3-7), but this is a rivalry game. Notre Dame should win fairly comfortably, but I think 24.5 is a big number.
The pick: Notre Dame 38-21

Duel in the Desert
Arizona at Arizona State (-10.5)
I liked Arizona State earlier this year. Not so much now. Once thought to be the front-runners in the Pac-12 South (remember: USC is ineligible for postseason play), now the Sun Devils have lost to UCLA and Washington State. Ouch.
Luckily for them, Arizona is much worse. Win and cover for ASU.
The pick: Arizona State 33-21

Down a level, up in drama
Liberty at Stony Brook (No Line)
Finally, some drama! We have to go to the FCS to find some this week. It's the regular season finale in the Big South, and both these teams are 5-0. The winner gets the conference crown. Flames and Seawolves. That's right. Those are their mascots. Stony Brook has scored at least 42 points in every conference game, and that includes 76 put up in last week's rout of Gardner-Webb. Liberty's had some high-scoring contests as well (63 against Coastal Carolina), but it averages 40 points per game in conference. Stony Brook is averaging 50.4. I'll take the Seawolves.
The pick: Stony Brook 50-40

And, hey, if these games don't do anything for you, remember that college basketball has started. So, we have that going for us, which is nice.

College Football Picks: Week 11

Herbstreit was shocked at how well I did last week.

I really shook up the blog last week by picking not just winners, but also picking against the spread. The results? Pretty good actually: 9-1 picking winners and... wait for it... 6-2-1 against the spread. Shocking I know. I got to enjoy the thrill that is the "garbage cover," specifically Texas A&M's late touchdown and two-point conversion that closed Oklahoma's lead to 16 points, thus beating the spread of 16.5 and giving me a W. Too bad I wasn't in Vegas. I can only assume that this will mean I'll be on the wrong side of the garbage cover this week.

As for this week, there are a lot more highly-anticipated games that should continue to shape the national championship picture.

The locals
#2 Oklahoma State (-17) at Texas Tech

The only reason OSU fans are nervous about this one is because the Red Raiders stunned the Sooners in Norman. Look at the rest of the Red Raiders' Big 12 games, and what do you have? Tech was blown out at Texas, embarrassed at home against Iowa State and even struggled with Kansas. Sure, strange things can happen in Lubbock (especially with that 11 a.m. kick). That doesn't change the fact that Texas Tech has really taken a dive since that OU win. Plus, OSU thrives off creating turnovers in the passing game, and that should really hamper Tech's offense. I'll take OSU covering in a blowout.

The pick: Oklahoma State 49-24

Marshall (+18) at Tulsa
While I think Tulsa should win, I think the Hurricane is getting a lot of points at home here. Marshall (4-5, 3-2) is not a terrible Conference USA team. While the Thundering Herd hasn't played a schedule as tough as Tulsa's, two of its losses are to West Virginia and Virginia Tech. Plus, Marshall did defeat Louisville and crushed a UAB team that gave TU some trouble.
Tulsa, though, really took a big step forward by winning a tough road game at UCF in the final minutes. It was a gut check game that showed the team's toughness. TU has the look of a conference title contender, but there are more bumps in the road before that talk can truly start. Marshall is one of those bumps. I think Marshall really challenges TU at home. The Golden Hurricane might pull away late, but I don't think it will be enough to cover.
The pick: Tulsa 36-21

Return of the Quack
#7 Oregon (+3.5) at #4 Stanford

Many have forgotten about the Ducks in the title chase.

Oregon has been quietly lurking in the Top 10 of the BCS and not getting much thought as a possible one-loss team in the title game. The Ducks could change that with a win at unbeaten Stanford. The Ducks' only loss is to top-ranked LSU, and they have one of the nation's highest scoring offenses. Stanford is eighth nationally in total yards and third in points scored. Oregon is seventh and fifth, respectively. I'm going more with a gut feeling than any statistics, but I like Oregon's speed to cause problems for the Cardinal. LaMichael James can not only make some game-changing plays in this one, but he can also help Oregon control the clock and keep Andrew Luck on the sideline. Oregon not only plays closer than 3.5, but upsets Stanford on the road.
The pick: Oregon 34-31

Last chance
TCU at #5 Boise State (-15.5)
The main reason America is interested: we all know this is the last chance for Boise State to get upset. Whether they love or hate the Broncos, most everyone agrees that TCU is by far the most likely team in the Mountain West to beat Boise State. The Broncos have two priorities. First, win the game. Second, make a statement because 30-point wins over New Mexico and Wyoming won't impress any voters. From what I've seen from TCU's pass defense this season, Kellen Moore should have a field day. Yes, TCU can run the ball, keep Moore on the sideline and grind out a few touchdowns. However, look for Boise State to score early and often. TCU will have trouble keeping up. Boise not only wins at home, but covers to try to impress some voters.
The pick: Boise State 45-24

Last big test
#20 Auburn (+13.5) at #15 Georgia

Georgia fans were ready to run Mark Richt out of town
in September. He's 2 wins away from the SEC title game.

The phrase "they control their own destiny" is overused, but it's true about Georgia. The Bulldogs stand to win the SEC East and get a shot at LSU in the SEC Championship if they can get past Auburn this week and Kentucky next week. The Wildcats shouldn't be much of a challenge, but I think Auburn will. While Georgia should win, I think the rival Tigers will make this one interesting. War Eagle covers, but Georgia wins.
The pick: Georgia 31-21

Elsewhere in the Peach State
#10 Virginia Tech (-1) at #21 Georgia Tech (Thursday)
Vegas has been playing jump rope with this line. Some have Georgia Tech by a point, but most have the Hokies by a point. It will be strength against strength as one of the top rushing attacks in the nation (GT ranks sixth) goes up against one of the nation's best rushing defenses (VT allowing about 85 yards a game). The winner of this game will likely be in the ACC Championship Game. In a big game like this, even on the road, I'll take Beamer ball. That means big plays on special teams, and David Wilson leads the offense to just enough points to win.
The pick: Virginia Tech 24-21

LHN vs SEC

#16 Texas (-1) at Missouri

The latest team to bolt the Big 12 hosts the team with the television contract that started all the drama to begin with. Texas may enter with some confidence after pounding lowly Kansas and struggling Texas Tech. Missouri scores a lot of points but also gives up a lot. So, the Tigers can beat just about anyone as long as their defense can get a few stops. The offenses almost cancel each other out for me. Henry Josey is a dependable runner that makes plays and opens up the passing game. The Longhorns' rushing attack has been strengthened by the emergence of freshman Joe Bergeron, who has rushed for over 300 yards combined in two games while highly-touted freshman Malcolm Brown nursed a toe injury. Brown could play this week. So, with the offenses pretty close, I'll make my decision on the defenses. Texas has a defensive line that should cause problems for James Franklin, and Missouri's D just isn't that strong.

The pick: Texas 31-27

Still no respect
Texas A&M at #14 Kansas State (+4.5)
This is one of those lines that makes me wonder what Vegas knows. Anyone who watched Kansas State push Oklahoma State to the brink last week had to be impressed with that team. The question for me is if their confidence is crushed or strengthened after that close loss to OSU. The Wildcats play hard, don't beat themselves, and can run the ball all day. Texas A&M has a reputation for second half collapses, and the Aggies just lost leading rusher Christine Michael for the season with a torn ACL. There's still plenty of talent on that offense, but the Aggies have still underachieved all season. I don't think Bill Snyder's guys will feel sorry for themselves. I think they'll remain focused on a potential Cotton Bowl bid. K-State won't only cover, but they'll beat the Aggies in Manhattan.
The pick: Kansas State 38-36

Somewhere, Bill Stewart is smiling
West Virginia (+3.5) at #23 Cincinnati
For all the hype surrounding the arrival of Dana Holgorsen, the results have been a bit underwhelming in Morgantown. Sure, the Mountaineers can score. They can't stop anyone either, which is why WVU has lost to Syracuse and Louisville. Holgorsen called out his team for lack of effort at this week's press conference, and he even said he might only take 55 players to Cincinnati if some guys don't earn their spot on the trip.
Whether or not that motivates WVU remains to be seen. What we do know is that Cincinnati may not always win pretty, but the Bearcats do find ways to win. West Virginia may score enough to keep it close, but not enough to win.
The pick: Cincinnati 33-30

Finally...
#19 Nebraska (-3.5) at #12 Penn State
I feel like any cute names or links in this last pick would be insensitive to the disastrous situation that surrounds Joe Paterno and the Penn State program. I could extend the blog by another 10,000 words with thoughts on the situation, but all I'll say is that it has to be a tremendous distraction for the entire team. It's embarrassing, and it's a tragedy that it happened.
On the field, Nebraska (with all of its flaws) is still the toughest challenge Penn State has seen in the conference. Even though Nebraska is coming off a bad loss at home, I think the Huskers will be refocused for this one. I'm not sure Penn State will be focused at all.
The pick: Nebraska 28-17

Let Rivalries Live

We've all been there. At the end of some type of relationship (personal, business, etc.), sometimes we say things we wish we could take back later. We say them out of hurt or anger, but the things we say are more a knee-jerk reaction to an upsetting change and don't indicate how we really feel once we've stepped away from the situation.

Aggies and Longhorns never again? Really? NEVER?

That's how I feel about some of these rivals saying they will never play each other again. College fans, for the most part, don't like change. We love our rivalry games, and the idea of never seeing Texas play Texas A&M or never seeing Kansas play Missouri bums us out. We don't want to have to explain to our kids years from now how great these rivalries used to be.

Why can't these rivalries keep going? Is pride getting in the way? I know some non-conference schedules are booked for a few years, so I get that. Why not start making plans for down the road, though? Fans will miss these games. Both the schools leaving and the schools being left behind are being a little stubborn. Some more than others. No matter how much Texas A&M and Missouri try to sell their new "rivalry" with each other to us, no one is buying it. Texas at least still has Oklahoma, but Longhorn fans will still want a piece of A&M every year. Kansas still has Kansas State, but don't Jayhawk fans really want to beat Missouri more? Their seasons will seem empty without ancient rivals on the schedules in all sports.

What is Batman without The Joker?

Remember The Dark Knight? In the interrogation scene, The Joker told Batman he didn't want to kill him. He said he'd get bored without him and that Batman completed him. Then later in the film (sadly, the last time most of us saw Heath Ledger), The Joker echoed that sentiment when he said Batman wouldn't kill him and that they were destined to "do this forever."

That's how I feel about long time college rivals. They need to play forever. Every hero needs a villain. Rivals complete each other. When your team has a lousy season, doesn't a win over a rival almost make it all better? I think after a couple years of not playing, the athletic departments will hear from the fans about how much they miss their rivalry games. They'll come back.

For right now, I get the venom, especially when you're not a fan of the teams moving. I don't like Texas A&M or Missouri leaving the Big 12. I hate Syracuse and Pittsburgh leaving the Big East. I get why they did it, though. To be fair, when Marquette left Conference USA for the Big East, I loved it. Why? Marquette was going to a bigger conference where it would get more exposure. (Although, I also liked it because Marquette was preserving rivalries with Cincinnati and Louisville and restarting the rivalry with Notre Dame. Marquette didn't leave behind any true rivals in C-USA. So, there were two sides to that move for me.) So, I get why A&M and Missouri fans are fired up. Just don't ask me to be, because I'll miss the rivalry games that some schools are too proud to continue.

If I'm Missouri, though, I'd get started on some non-conference basketball contracts that include neutral site games in Kansas City. Get three six-year contracts with three schools: Kansas, Kansas State and one more (I don't know who: Iowa, Nebraska, UMKC, Missouri State, whatever). All three of those schools rotate home, away and Sprint Center games. That way, Missouri keeps playing its hoops rivals and maintains a presence in KC. It could go something like this:

Joke all you want, KU and Mizzou fans. You'll miss each other.

2012:
at Kansas
Kansas State at home
Team 3 in KC
2013:
Kansas at home
Kansas State in KC
at Team 3
2014:
Kansas in KC
at Kansas State
Team 3 at home

Syracuse and Pitt should do similar deals with teams like Georgetown, Villanova, Connecticut and/or West Virginia. And, for crying out loud, Texas and Texas A&M need to take a step back and realize they need to keep playing each other in all sports, especially football.

I'm taking a long (maybe permanent) break from suggesting which schools conferences need to chase and which conferences should team up. All I'm asking is to keep our rivalries going. The state of Texas needs Longhorn/Aggie hatred, Kansas City needs the Border War, and Batman definitely needs The Joker.

College Football Picks: Week 10

Pick against the spread? Challenge Accepted!

Recently, a friend challenged me to pick against the spread instead of picking winners. Last week's performance is an example of why I don't. I went 7-3, but would not have done so well against the spread. There were close games I thought would be routs and routs I thought would be much closer.

But, the challenge of picking against the spread intrigues me. I'm not one to back down from a challenge, even if I end up taking a beating. Hey, I'm not playing for money... yet. So, for the rest of the season, I'll keep track of both winners AND how I do against the spread. Game on.

The locals
Tulsa at Central Florida (-3) - Thursday
Circle this for the first questionable line of the week. Tulsa is an underdog in this one? I know TU is on the road, but UCF has a head-scratching loss to UAB and has also lost to SMU. That's the same SMU team that Tulsa blew out 38-7, and TU also took care of UAB by 17 points. Don't forget that Tulsa's three losses are to three of the top six teams in the BCS. Tulsa not only covers, but wins.
The pick: Tulsa 31-21

Texas A&M at #6 Oklahoma (-16.5)
If recent history is any indication, Texas A&M should start strong but collapse in the fourth quarter. The Sooners are getting a lot of points, but they can also score a lot, as Kansas State found out. The Aggies, though, can throw the ball much more efficiently than the Wildcats. I like their running game better, too. The Aggies have the firepower to keep this game closer than Vegas thinks, but I can't see them winning in Norman. (insert Texas Tech joke here)
The pick: Oklahoma 44-30

#14 Kansas State at #3 Oklahoma State (-21.5)
Kansas State got absolutely embarrassed last week in Norman, and I'm not sure it gets much better this week. The line in Vegas is an indication of that. OSU, however, thrives off of forcing turnovers in the passing game. The Wildcats will be content to run it in attempt to slow the game down. However, that running game won't be able to score enough points to keep up with the OSU offense. Kansas State may keep it close enough to cover, but not enough to win.
The pick: Oklahoma State 41-21

National Semifinal
#1 LSU at #2 Alabama (-4.5)

Richardson could be a deciding factor this week.

My only hope is that this game lives up to the ridiculous hype, which at this point, might be tough. Both of these teams are national championship quality, and it's not ridiculous to think they meet again in New Orleans. The key to the game for me is Trent Richardson. If Alabama gets him involved early and often, the Tide will win. If LSU contains him, there will be a party in Baton Rouge (well, they'll party either way, but you know what I mean). The three reasons I lean towards Alabama: the game is in Tuscaloosa, Richardson is an X-factor, and I like Saban in this setting. Les Miles is fantastic, an expert risk taker. However, Saban is cool under pressure, and I give him a slight edge. I think it comes down to the end and which offense can finally figure out the opposing defense. It'll be closer than 4.5, but I have to give the edge to Alabama.
The pick: Alabama 20-17

The other big SEC game
#9 South Carolina at #7 Arkansas (-4.5)
All the hype over LSU/Alabama is overshadowing another critical game in the SEC. South Carolina controls its own destiny in the SEC East. Arkansas needs this one to stay in the hunt in the SEC West. Don't forget that if LSU wins, Arkansas gets a shot at the Tigers and could force a three-way tie for first, but that's looking too far down the road.
The Hogs have played with fire the last two weeks as they have barely slipped past Ole Miss and Vanderbilt. They return home this week, though. Plus, South Carolina is dealing with the unfortunate loss of Marcus Lattimore to a knee injury. Those two factors combine to help Arkansas win and cover.
The pick: Arkansas 28-20

Who are these guys?
Texas Tech at #21 Texas (-10)
Is there any team more confusing right now than Texas Tech? The Red Raiders went into Norman and handed Bob Stoops only his third home loss with the Sooners two weeks ago. That earned them a lot of respect, and they shot up in the BCS rankings. Then they promptly went home to Lubbock and got crushed by lowly Iowa State. That's what makes this pick so tough. If I knew which Texas Tech team was showing up this week, it's an easy pick one way or the other. Unfortunately, I have no idea which one will show up in Austin. Tech has to come out refocused against the hated Longhorns, but I think the Texas defensive front will cause enough problems to keep that offense in check. Now, can Texas score enough to cover? I don't know. They scored 43 against Kansas, but everyone scores a lot against Kansas. I think it's closer than that, but Texas should win.
The pick: Texas 30-21

The home 'dog
Missouri (-1) at Baylor
Both of these teams surprised me last week. I was impressed with Missouri's ability to battle back on the road against A&M. I also couldn't believe how badly Baylor got embarrassed by Oklahoma State. I never expected Baylor to win, but to pile up 622 yards of offense and lose by 35 points? Wow. Baylor needs this one to stay remotely relevant in the Big 12. I'm a little surprised the Bears are a home underdog, but it's only one point. Neither one of these teams have a good defense. Look for a lot of points, and I think Robert Griffin rebounds from a sloppy week.
The pick: Baylor 38-35

The fly in the BCS ointment
Cincinnati (-3) at Pittsburgh
Pitt is 4-4, but if the Panthers win out, they will be in the BCS. Makes you groan, doesn't it? Cincinnati could also win out and get in, but at least that would leave them at a respectable 11-1. There are a lot of games between now and then, including this one. I like Cincinnati's offense, and I think it will be too much for Pittsburgh.
The pick: Cincinnati 28-24

They are what they are
Notre Dame (-14) at Wake Forest
What do we know about Notre Dame? The Irish cruise past weak opponents, but give the game away against stronger ones. Wake Forest (coming off a 25-point loss to North Carolina, preceded by a one-point win over Duke) is more the former than the latter. The Irish should be able to handle this one. Win and cover.
The pick: Notre Dame 38-21

Future ORU opponents
Central Arkansas at Northwestern State (No Line)
A battle to decide the Southland Conference, the future home of Oral Roberts (in all other sports obviously, since ORU doesn't play football). Central Arkansas is led by former Arkansas QB Nathan Dick. I'll take the experienced one-time SEC quarterback to lead the Bears to victory.
The pick: Central Arkansas 30-27

Enjoy an important week in college football. And remember to check your mailboxes for invitations to join the Big East.