College Football Picks: Week 11

Herbstreit was shocked at how well I did last week.

I really shook up the blog last week by picking not just winners, but also picking against the spread. The results? Pretty good actually: 9-1 picking winners and... wait for it... 6-2-1 against the spread. Shocking I know. I got to enjoy the thrill that is the "garbage cover," specifically Texas A&M's late touchdown and two-point conversion that closed Oklahoma's lead to 16 points, thus beating the spread of 16.5 and giving me a W. Too bad I wasn't in Vegas. I can only assume that this will mean I'll be on the wrong side of the garbage cover this week.

As for this week, there are a lot more highly-anticipated games that should continue to shape the national championship picture.

The locals
#2 Oklahoma State (-17) at Texas Tech

The only reason OSU fans are nervous about this one is because the Red Raiders stunned the Sooners in Norman. Look at the rest of the Red Raiders' Big 12 games, and what do you have? Tech was blown out at Texas, embarrassed at home against Iowa State and even struggled with Kansas. Sure, strange things can happen in Lubbock (especially with that 11 a.m. kick). That doesn't change the fact that Texas Tech has really taken a dive since that OU win. Plus, OSU thrives off creating turnovers in the passing game, and that should really hamper Tech's offense. I'll take OSU covering in a blowout.

The pick: Oklahoma State 49-24

Marshall (+18) at Tulsa
While I think Tulsa should win, I think the Hurricane is getting a lot of points at home here. Marshall (4-5, 3-2) is not a terrible Conference USA team. While the Thundering Herd hasn't played a schedule as tough as Tulsa's, two of its losses are to West Virginia and Virginia Tech. Plus, Marshall did defeat Louisville and crushed a UAB team that gave TU some trouble.
Tulsa, though, really took a big step forward by winning a tough road game at UCF in the final minutes. It was a gut check game that showed the team's toughness. TU has the look of a conference title contender, but there are more bumps in the road before that talk can truly start. Marshall is one of those bumps. I think Marshall really challenges TU at home. The Golden Hurricane might pull away late, but I don't think it will be enough to cover.
The pick: Tulsa 36-21

Return of the Quack
#7 Oregon (+3.5) at #4 Stanford

Many have forgotten about the Ducks in the title chase.

Oregon has been quietly lurking in the Top 10 of the BCS and not getting much thought as a possible one-loss team in the title game. The Ducks could change that with a win at unbeaten Stanford. The Ducks' only loss is to top-ranked LSU, and they have one of the nation's highest scoring offenses. Stanford is eighth nationally in total yards and third in points scored. Oregon is seventh and fifth, respectively. I'm going more with a gut feeling than any statistics, but I like Oregon's speed to cause problems for the Cardinal. LaMichael James can not only make some game-changing plays in this one, but he can also help Oregon control the clock and keep Andrew Luck on the sideline. Oregon not only plays closer than 3.5, but upsets Stanford on the road.
The pick: Oregon 34-31

Last chance
TCU at #5 Boise State (-15.5)
The main reason America is interested: we all know this is the last chance for Boise State to get upset. Whether they love or hate the Broncos, most everyone agrees that TCU is by far the most likely team in the Mountain West to beat Boise State. The Broncos have two priorities. First, win the game. Second, make a statement because 30-point wins over New Mexico and Wyoming won't impress any voters. From what I've seen from TCU's pass defense this season, Kellen Moore should have a field day. Yes, TCU can run the ball, keep Moore on the sideline and grind out a few touchdowns. However, look for Boise State to score early and often. TCU will have trouble keeping up. Boise not only wins at home, but covers to try to impress some voters.
The pick: Boise State 45-24

Last big test
#20 Auburn (+13.5) at #15 Georgia

Georgia fans were ready to run Mark Richt out of town
in September. He's 2 wins away from the SEC title game.

The phrase "they control their own destiny" is overused, but it's true about Georgia. The Bulldogs stand to win the SEC East and get a shot at LSU in the SEC Championship if they can get past Auburn this week and Kentucky next week. The Wildcats shouldn't be much of a challenge, but I think Auburn will. While Georgia should win, I think the rival Tigers will make this one interesting. War Eagle covers, but Georgia wins.
The pick: Georgia 31-21

Elsewhere in the Peach State
#10 Virginia Tech (-1) at #21 Georgia Tech (Thursday)
Vegas has been playing jump rope with this line. Some have Georgia Tech by a point, but most have the Hokies by a point. It will be strength against strength as one of the top rushing attacks in the nation (GT ranks sixth) goes up against one of the nation's best rushing defenses (VT allowing about 85 yards a game). The winner of this game will likely be in the ACC Championship Game. In a big game like this, even on the road, I'll take Beamer ball. That means big plays on special teams, and David Wilson leads the offense to just enough points to win.
The pick: Virginia Tech 24-21

LHN vs SEC

#16 Texas (-1) at Missouri

The latest team to bolt the Big 12 hosts the team with the television contract that started all the drama to begin with. Texas may enter with some confidence after pounding lowly Kansas and struggling Texas Tech. Missouri scores a lot of points but also gives up a lot. So, the Tigers can beat just about anyone as long as their defense can get a few stops. The offenses almost cancel each other out for me. Henry Josey is a dependable runner that makes plays and opens up the passing game. The Longhorns' rushing attack has been strengthened by the emergence of freshman Joe Bergeron, who has rushed for over 300 yards combined in two games while highly-touted freshman Malcolm Brown nursed a toe injury. Brown could play this week. So, with the offenses pretty close, I'll make my decision on the defenses. Texas has a defensive line that should cause problems for James Franklin, and Missouri's D just isn't that strong.

The pick: Texas 31-27

Still no respect
Texas A&M at #14 Kansas State (+4.5)
This is one of those lines that makes me wonder what Vegas knows. Anyone who watched Kansas State push Oklahoma State to the brink last week had to be impressed with that team. The question for me is if their confidence is crushed or strengthened after that close loss to OSU. The Wildcats play hard, don't beat themselves, and can run the ball all day. Texas A&M has a reputation for second half collapses, and the Aggies just lost leading rusher Christine Michael for the season with a torn ACL. There's still plenty of talent on that offense, but the Aggies have still underachieved all season. I don't think Bill Snyder's guys will feel sorry for themselves. I think they'll remain focused on a potential Cotton Bowl bid. K-State won't only cover, but they'll beat the Aggies in Manhattan.
The pick: Kansas State 38-36

Somewhere, Bill Stewart is smiling
West Virginia (+3.5) at #23 Cincinnati
For all the hype surrounding the arrival of Dana Holgorsen, the results have been a bit underwhelming in Morgantown. Sure, the Mountaineers can score. They can't stop anyone either, which is why WVU has lost to Syracuse and Louisville. Holgorsen called out his team for lack of effort at this week's press conference, and he even said he might only take 55 players to Cincinnati if some guys don't earn their spot on the trip.
Whether or not that motivates WVU remains to be seen. What we do know is that Cincinnati may not always win pretty, but the Bearcats do find ways to win. West Virginia may score enough to keep it close, but not enough to win.
The pick: Cincinnati 33-30

Finally...
#19 Nebraska (-3.5) at #12 Penn State
I feel like any cute names or links in this last pick would be insensitive to the disastrous situation that surrounds Joe Paterno and the Penn State program. I could extend the blog by another 10,000 words with thoughts on the situation, but all I'll say is that it has to be a tremendous distraction for the entire team. It's embarrassing, and it's a tragedy that it happened.
On the field, Nebraska (with all of its flaws) is still the toughest challenge Penn State has seen in the conference. Even though Nebraska is coming off a bad loss at home, I think the Huskers will be refocused for this one. I'm not sure Penn State will be focused at all.
The pick: Nebraska 28-17