Bowl Picks: Part Two

It's time for the rest of my bowl picks. Take a look back at the first 23 to see how I'm doing so far (or don't). I'm doing pretty well picking bowl winners (17-6) and just above .500 against the spread (12-11). Expect more of the same in 2012. Here are the picks for the 12 games that will help us kick off the new year.

TicketCity Bowl
Houston vs Penn State (+7)
Houston opened as a nine-point favorite, but the line has come down since then. People are understandably down on Houston after the Cougars not only blew a chance to go to the BCS, but got embarassed by Southern Miss in the process. Plus, Kevin Sumlin took the A&M job. But, Penn State certainly takes the cake when it comes to awkward coaching situations. On the plus side, the Nittany Lions have already been through a few games with Tom Bradley at the helm. They'll be ready. Penn State will definitely be the best defense Case Keenum has seen all year, and I think that will give the Cougars a lot of trouble. Even if Matt McGloin is out, it's not the Penn State offense that will win the game. It's going to be on defense. I'll take the troubled Penn State team to not only cover, but pull off the win.
The pick: Penn State 24-21

Outback Bowl
Michigan State vs Georgia (-3)

Look for Richt and his Dawgs
to end the season on a high note.

Mark Richt has been on the hot seat all season, but I'm pretty sure that seat has cooled off quite a bit since September. He's done a solid job with this team and reminded his detractors why he's been in Athens for 11 seasons now. Michigan State's defense is tough, but Georgia's is just as good and maybe better. I like Georgia's offensive weapons better as well. Finally, if it's the SEC against the Big Ten, that seals it for me. Georgia should win.
The pick: Georgia 33-27

Capital One Bowl
Nebraska vs South Carolina (-2.5)
Nebraska is 3-0 all-time against South Carolina, but I'm pretty sure that changes this year. The Gamecocks have a strong defense that will be a nightmare for Huskers QB Taylor Martinez. Look for South Carolina to load up against the run and dare Martinez to beat them with his arm, and I don't think he will. Nebraska's defense will be a challenge for South Carolina, too, but I think the Gamecocks will get enough to win.
The pick: South Carolina 21-17

Gator Bowl
Ohio State (+2) vs Florida
Call it the Urban Meyer Bowl if you so desire. Meyer's former team takes on his future team. As much as Florida fans want to blame the underachieving offense on Charlie Weis, I think it was more the talent (or lack thereof) he was coaching. Ohio State may not be that great (6-6, just like Florida), but I think the Buckeyes have a defense that can frustrate the underachieving Florida offense. I'm just not sure what to think of Florida right now. The Gators should be okay in the long term, but I like the Buckeyes in this one. Enjoy the bowl win, Ohio State. You won't have one next year.
The pick: Ohio State 21-20

Rose Bowl
Wisconsin vs Oregon (-6)
Teach me how to Bucky or Teach me how to Duckie? Both of these teams score in bunches, so look for plenty of points in this one. Wisconsin's defense has been great at home, but not so much away from Madison. The Badgers' combo of Russell Wilson and Montee Ball will help Wisconsin keep up for most of the night, but when the game is over, Oregon should have a bit too much for Wisconsin's defense.
The pick: Oregon 45-38

Fiesta Bowl
Stanford vs Oklahoma State (-4)

Few bowl games interest me as much as the Fiesta Bowl.
The quarterback match-up is a big reason why.

This isn't the game Oklahoma State wanted to play in, but I still expect the Cowboys to be fired up for their first BCS appearance. It will very likely be Andrew Luck's final college game, and he'll probably be the most talked-about player. That's fine with OSU. While Luck may be the best pro prospect in the game, don't be shocked if Brandon Weeden outplays him. Weeden has better skill players around him. While Luck has good mobility and pinpoint accuracy, Weeden has the stronger throwing arm; and his accuracy, while maybe not quite at Luck's level, is still pretty darn good. Those two will be fun to watch all night. On the other side of the ball, Oklahoma State's defense should match up very well with the lack of speed on Stanford's offense. While the Cardinal will certainly hope to slow the game down a bit, OSU may set the tone with what Bill Young called "basketball on grass" this week. OSU likes to score in a hurry, and by the end of the night, that may be too much for Stanford. I just look at what Oregon and USC were able to do against Stanford, and I think OSU can have similar results. Win and cover for the Pokes.
The pick: Oklahoma State 38-31
Bonus OSU uniform prediction: This has to be the game they go with all black, right? Fans have been anxious to see it all season.

Sugar Bowl
Michigan (-2.5) vs Virginia Tech
This is a game the BCS got wrong. Kansas State deserved to be in this game more than either of these two, but we all make mistakes I guess. Virginia Tech had a weak schedule and didn't get many great wins. I'm not sure the Hokies are BCS quality this season. While Michigan doesn't exactly bring a lot of quality wins to the table either, the Wolverines' defense is strong, and they have an explosive quarterback who should be able to put on a show. I'll take Shoelace to lead Michigan to a comfortable Sugar Bowl win.
The pick: Michigan 35-20

Orange Bowl
West Virginia vs Clemson (-3)
This is another less-than-inspiring BCS game, but unlike Michigan and Virginia Tech, these teams earned automatic berths and had to be chosen. Despite Clemson's stumbles down the stretch, the Tigers probably are a better overall team than West Virginia. I don't think either team will be able to stop the other. Look for a lot of points, but probably more for Clemson.
The pick: Clemson 42-38

Cotton Bowl
Kansas State (+7.5) vs Arkansas

I don't think Kansas State will win, but I do expect Collin Klein
to keep his team in it all the way to the end.

It's an exciting match-up featuring a pair of teams that got hosed by the BCS. Arkansas got left out because there were two SEC teams ahead of them, and Kansas State was simply disrespected by the Orange Bowl. Vegas isn't showing Kansas State much respect either, but that's nothing new to them (or me, which is why I think I've used a Rodney Dangerfield clip about five times for K-State this year). I've been impressed with the effort and execution of the Wildcats all year. While I do think Arkansas has too much talent to lose this game, I do think Bill Snyder's guys will keep it close all the way to the final gun.
The pick: Arkansas 38-35

BBVA Compass Bowl
SMU (+3.5) vs Pittsburgh
This is one of those lousy bowl games that gets sandwiched between the first few BCS games and the national championship game. It's a 7-5 Conference USA team against a 6-6 Big East team. Hooray.
Pitt opened as a seven-point favorite, but the line has come tumbling down since Todd Graham stunned the team by bolting to Arizona State. Pitt's players may still be in a bit of shock and probably a little angry. SMU is not a great team this season, but I think the Mustangs will hang around before eventually falling to Pitt in an ugly game.
The pick: Pittsburgh 20-17

GoDaddy.com Bowl
Arkansas State (-1.5) vs Northern Illinois
Speaking of lousy games just before the championship, how about this one? At least we'll have the semi-racy, over-the-top GoDaddy.com ads that may or may not have Danica Patrick, and that's probably not enough to get me to watch. Although, give these two teams credit: they did both win their respective conferences (Sun Belt and MAC). Both can score a lot of points (Northern Illinois is 13th in the nation in points scored while Arkansas State is 27th), but NIU tends to get its yards on the ground (8th in the country rushing) while ASU does it through the air (17th in passing yards). Arkansas State, by the way, is the future home of former TU offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, who surprisingly left his OC job at Auburn to become a head coach. I'll take the Red Wolves over the Huskies. You know which one is which right?
The pick: Arkansas State 52-49

BCS National Championship
Alabama vs LSU (+1)

I'm picking Les Miles get his second BCS trophy.

It's the big one. I know many of us were understandably underwhelmed with the 9-6 decision back in November. Ugly score aside, that doesn't change the fact that these are the two best teams in the country. Two most deserving? We can debate Alabama vs Oklahoma State all day. This is the game we get.
I expect a similar game this time around, but someone will make a big play on offense (Trent Richardson?) or special teams (Tyrann Mathieu?). Last time, I gave the edge to Alabama because of three reasons: the offensive playmaker in Richardson, the home crowd, and I liked the game-planning of Nick Saban over the risk-taking of Les Miles.
This time, the crowd will be behind LSU. Make no mistake about it: this is not a neutral site game. Tiger fans will pack the Superdome and all the streets around it. I don't think Les Miles gets enough respect for his game-planning, so the coaching may be a push. I still like Richardson's ability to break a big play, but let's not forget the Honey Badger. Tyrann Mathieu has had game-changing touchdowns in three of LSU's toughest games: punt returns for touchdowns in the Arkansas and Georgia games that shifted all the momentum to the Tigers' favor, and he also forced a fumble and returned it for a touchdown against Oregon. Don't rule out him being the guy who makes the big play to deliver another crystal football to LSU. It should be another low-scoring game, but I can't go against LSU in this setting. LSU will be your national champion. Quite frankly, based on their entire body of work, that's the way it should be.
The pick: LSU 16-10

Thanks for reading my picks blog this season. I guess I need to find something else to write about for a while.

Jersey Fouls

This is my favorite jersey for obvious reasons.

Jerseys are cool, but only in moderation. As adults, there are only three situations in which it is acceptable to wear a professional sports jersey.
1. You're at a game.
2. You're at some sort of party where people are watching a game.
3. You're playing in the game.

Hanging with friends, dates, the workplace, church. These are all places the jersey should not be seen. Yes, I've seen them in all of those places.

It's just not a good look. Those are the simple rules of jersey wearing.

Beyond that, there are some slightly more complicated rules of etiquette that should be observed by the adult jersey wearer. Kids, you're fine. Wear your jerseys whenever you want. For you grownups, let this blog be your guide.

Ideally, your jersey should be of a current player. Unless you are 10 years old, a personalized jersey that says "Timmy" on the back just doesn't impress anyone. Adults should get a jersey of a current player, ideally one with staying power. Keep this in mind when purchasing said jersey. It better be someone who will be with the team for a while. First round draft picks, franchise players and players with enormous contracts are ideal for jersey purchasing. Those things cost normally cost at least $80 and sometimes get closer to $200. So, get your money's worth.

I kept this in mind when looking around for Chiefs jerseys last year. At the time, there was no player on the roster that I thought A.) was a great player and B.) definitely would be with the team for a while. So, I held off. However, when I found a Derrick Johnson jersey on sale for $35 last spring, I knew I had made a worthwhile purchase. He just signed a five-year contract extension and is now a Pro Bowler.

Tamarick Vanover. Marc Boerigter. Snoop Minnis. Steve Bono. I saw all of those Chiefs jerseys at Arrowhead within the last year. Not a good look, folks. I'm not sure those were great choices when they were with the team. Now? Ugh. Former players that are out of the NFL are bad enough, but that's not the biggest faux paux I've seen.

Really? All the promising young talent in KC, and you
show up at the K rocking a Greinke jersey? Shame!

Do not wear a jersey of a former player who currently plays for another team. I saw way too many Zack Greinke jerseys at the last Royals game I went to. Not cool. The guy had a couple nice seasons in KC (one great one), but he wanted out. He's a Brewer now.

When a player goes to another team, it's time to put the jersey in the closet. Wearing that to a game is kind of like keeping a picture of an ex. You had some good times, but you're not together anymore. Time to find someone else. There are several more examples out there that are a lot worse than Greinke Royals jerseys, though. Here are a few examples of jerseys you need to put in your closet and leave there until further notice:

LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers - Some people still wear them. They shouldn't. The wound is way too fresh and won't go away anytime soon.

Terrell Owens, any team - Admit it. You hated Owens until he signed with your team. Then you got excited, bought the jersey, and by the end of the year you had buyer's remorse because of the locker room turmoil he caused. Now, it's the only jersey you have so that's what you wear on game day. You're better than that. Admit you made a mistake. Throw the TO jersey away.

Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals - I know it hurts, but it's over, Cardinal fans. Don't throw that number 5 away, though. That jersey will be cool again one day. This brings me to my next point.

I like my Tony G. jersey,
but I can't wear it for a while.

Legendary players are acceptable... after they've retired. One day, when guys James and Pujols have retired and the wounds have healed, you can bring those jerseys back out and maybe even wear them to games again. Not before then, though.

Michael Jordan Bulls jersey? Emmitt Smith Cowboys jersey? Joe Montana 49ers? All beyond acceptable. They are legendary players for those respective franchises and will mostly be remembered for what they did in those cities and not Washington, Arizona, or Kansas City. Wear the jerseys of your legends proudly.

I like my Tony Gonzalez Chiefs jersey, but he's a Falcon now. Until he hangs it up, that 88 will hang in my closet. When he makes his Hall of Fame speech, though, I'll probably bring it back out. He'll always be a Chief to me. He'll be in the Chiefs Hall of Honor one day. Then (and only then) can the 88 be worn to Arrowhead again.

I can't move to my last point before addressing a big grey area: Brett Favre Packers jerseys. He's retired (we think), but I'm pretty sure some bitter feelings still linger. Maybe in a few years when Favre goes into the Hall of Fame and hopefully buries the hatchet with Green Bay in his speech, those Favre Packer jerseys will be a little more acceptable. As long as Rodgers is quarterbacking that team, though, I'd suggest keeping your 4's hidden.

College rules. The beauty about college jerseys: for the most part, they are forever. They rarely have names on the back. So, they're flexible. My number 3 Notre Dame football jersey has flexed from Darius Walker to Michael Floyd, and in lean years I just say it's Joe Montana. Even the rare college jerseys that do have names last forever because they usually fall under the previously-mentioned legendary rule. Colleges won't take the time to make a jersey with a name on it unless the player is an all-time great. So, unless you have a jersey of a player who transferred or left the program with a pile of NCAA sanctions (see: Terrelle Pryor Ohio State jerseys), your college jerseys should be good forever.

Court Storming Etiquette

As we shift our focus from football to basketball, I thought it was time to revive another one of my lost blogs from OKBlitz.com: Court Storming Etiquette. The exciting games from this past week (Indiana stunning Kentucky and Kansas taking down Ohio State) reminded me of it.

Anyone who has been to college knows the feeling: being in the stands at the end of a big win and getting that urge to run onto the court. 

I remember my first court storming experience. It was February 2, 2002. Fourth-ranked Cincinnati came to Milwaukee on a 20-game winning streak, and it had won Conference USA every year since its inception. Dwyane Wade led Marquette past the Bearcats in a 74-60 victory. 

Heck yes. We stormed the floor. We went nuts. (click the link. If you look closely in the lower right-hand corner, you may notice a young student reporter with a questionable haircut.)

Court storming? Oh yeah. I've been there a couple times.
I took this photo after Marquette won the C-USA title.

Marquette hadn't been to the tournament in five years, and our program was finally back on the map. We stormed the floor again a year later when Marquette beat Cincinnati again to win its first (and only) Conference USA championship. Honestly, I think we were all happy to have winning the title as an excuse to rub it in Cincinnati's face a little more.

Storming the floor is fun, but you can't do it every time your team wins a game. The young, immature fan in all of us wants to run out there after every victory. We can't do that, though. Then, it wouldn't be special, and it gets really irritating when it happens too often. There are rules. Unfortunately these rules are unwritten, and they are complicated with a lot of gray area. Here's a little guide that may or may not help students decide when rushing the court is appropriate. We don't have to call these rules. Let's just call them suggestions.

You just won a tournament berth from a one-bid league?
Court storming is both allowed and encouraged. Go nuts.

ALWAYS storm the court if you play in a one-bid conference and clinch a bid to the NCAA tournament. For small conferences, the opportunity to go to the Big Dance is so rare, you have to celebrate when you get the chance. It’s especially rare when you get to clinch that bid at home. So if you get a chance to celebrate an NCAA bid at home, do it.

RARELY storm the court if the team you beat is not ranked. It was because of this rule that I questioned an Oral Roberts celebration after defeating Missouri two years ago. Missouri wasn't ranked, but it was a huge win for ORU, a Summit League team. Missouri was just 5-2 coming in, but it was still a Big 12 team that went to the Elite 8 the previous season. I forgave the ORU fans because I’m locally biased. It was sweet for a Summit League team to knock off a Big 12 team, and it had been a while since ORU had a great win like that. So, it was acceptable, but let’s stay in the stands for the next one. Okay, guys?

NEVER storm the court if your team is ranked in the top 10, maybe top 15. If the team is that good, you should expect to win every single time.

RARELY storm the court if you are a ranked team. Going along with the previous point, if your team is good enough to be ranked, you should anticipate winning every home game. So, you should always enter these games expecting a win, and home wins by ranked teams should be treated with class. However…

Wins over hated rivals make court storming more forgivable.

ALWAYS storm the court if you end a long run of futility against a hated rival. This would apply to a program like Kansas State, for example. A few years ago, the Wildcats had this guy named Michael Beasley, were ranked 24th in the country and hosting second-ranked Kansas. The Jayhawks had owned Kansas State forever, as KU had won 24 straight in Manhattan. Kansas State won, and the students rightly rushed the floor. Ending an embarrassing streak like that warrants a court rush every time. So, in short, if your rival has beaten you down for a long time, and you finally win a game, rub it in.

ALMOST ALWAYS storm the court if your team is unranked and upsets a highly ranked (1-10 or so) team. It’s an upset. Celebrate.

RARELY storm the court if your team is unranked and beats a team ranked between 20 and 25. This is especially true if your team is in the “others receiving votes” category. If your team is almost in the top 25, and the team you beat is barely in, and your team is at home, is it really an upset? It helps to know the point spread. Your team may actually be favored.

ALWAYS storm the court if you are an unranked team and you upset the nation’s top-ranked team. This is always cause for celebration. However...

Students at this arena (and others) should stay off the court.

NEVER storm the court if you are a fan of one of the nation’s elite programs: North Carolina, Kansas, Kentucky, UCLA, Duke, and Indiana fit this category. These programs should never see their students rush the floor. Ever. They are above it because of the number of national titles and All-Americans they have had. No matter how down one of these programs may get, they should still treat every win like they have done it before, because they have.

This is where Indiana's win over Kentucky comes into question. It crosses an "always" with a "never." Stupid gray area. I can't blame the IU students, though. If I were a student in Assembly Hall that day, you know I would have been on the floor. Indiana fans, though, should probably never storm the court again. If the program is truly "back," let's act like it.

One that may never be used...

ABSOLUTELY storm the court if your team ends an extended, history-making winning streak. In today’s college basketball world, I can’t imagine any men's program racking up a ridiculous winning streak of 35 or more. I can't see a team going unbeaten and then extending that winning streak well into another season like the Connecticut women seem to do routinely these days. However, if any team ever does do something as crazy as John Wooden’s UCLA Bruins’ 88-game winning streak, the school that breaks that should definitely storm the floor, tear down the rims, break things on press row, everything. But, I don’t think it’s going out on a limb to say that no team will even approach half of that UCLA streak, so this rule is pretty irrelevant, but it’s good to have anyway.

Finally, most importantly...

NEVER storm the court if you are not a student. It's for the kids only. Once you graduate from college, you graduate from court storming.

Bowl Picks: Part One

It's bowl season! Time to go to beautiful places like El Paso!

Beef 'O' Brady's
BBVA Compass
GoDaddy.com
Belk
FreeCreditScore.com
Bridgeport Education

Only one of those is NOT attached to the name of a bowl game this year. Nothing says prestige like the 35 bowl games we have now. As much as we kid/complain about the mediocrity of the first dozen or so, the last dozen or so tend to be a lot of fun.

So, to get you ready, here come the first half (give or take a few) of my bowl picks:

Gildan New Mexico Bowl
Temple (-6.5) vs Wyoming
This is the first epic battle to kick off bowl season. Compared to some of the other games, it's not bad. Both teams have eight wins, albeit in non-AQ conferences. While Temple hasn't played many great opponents (Penn State was the only ranked team), Wyoming was beaten convincingly by its tougher opponents (TCU, Boise State, Nebraska). I'll take the Owls and give the points.
The pick: Temple 30-21

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Ohio (+2.5) vs Utah State
There's more MAC excitement at stop two on the 2011-12 bowl tour. Ohio blew a big lead in the MAC Championship Game to end up here. Playing in their first Saturday game since October, I like the Bobcats to get some redemption and pull off a modest upset of the Aggies.
The pick: Ohio 27-24

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
San Diego State (-5) vs Louisiana-Lafayette
The Ragin' Cajuns make a short trip to New Orleans to take on future Big East member San Diego State (there is nothing that sounds right about "East" and "San Diego" together). The Cajuns will have the crowd behind them, but San Diego State is a little more battle-tested. I'll take the Aztecs to win and cover.
The pick: San Diego State 31-24

Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl St. Petersburg
Florida International (-4) vs Marshall
Both the Panthers and Thundering Herd boast a win over Louisville. The other common opponent is Central Florida: a win for FIU and a loss for Marshall. FIU may come from a weaker conference, but I'll pick the Panthers since they are playing in their home state and Marshall looked pretty bad against Conference USA's better teams late in the season.
The pick: Florida International 31-24

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
TCU (-10.5) vs Louisiana Tech

Casey Pachall leads TCU into the Poinsettia Bowl.
Next time we see the Frogs, they'll be a Big 12 team.

TCU had a lot of concerns over its pass defense early in the season after losses to Baylor and SMU. Those may not be completely fixed, but TCU did find a way to defeat Boise State and go unbeaten in the Mountain West. Louisiana Tech is talented and did well enough to win the WAC, but it hasn't seen a team with TCU's talent yet. The Frogs should be able to use its deep stable of running backs and other offensive weapons to get past Tech. I'll take the Frogs and give the points
The pick: TCU 35-21

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl
Arizona State vs Boise State (-14)
Boise State feels disrespected (again) by the BCS, but I have no sympathy for the Broncos. They should have won the Mountain West if they wanted to be in the BCS, and the Mountain West even gift-wrapped the conference for them by moving the TCU game to Boise, where the Broncos weren't able to get it done.
Boise State, though, does have plenty of talent and much more focus than Arizona State. Look for the Broncos to run up the score in Las Vegas.
The pick: Boise State 48-20

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
Nevada vs Southern Miss (-6)
Larry Fedora is sticking around to coach one more game before leaving Southern Miss for North Carolina (If it would get me a free trip to Hawaii, I'd stick around for the bowl game, too). I'll be interested to see how hard the Golden Eagles play for him. Southern Miss has two head-scratching losses (Marshall and UAB), but it still has more talent than Nevada. Southern Miss may have a chip on its shoulder because the Liberty Bowl (normally the destination for the Conference USA champion) passed on inviting USM. I guess Hawaii is a sweet consolation prize. Look for a strong performance from the Golden Eagles.
The pick: Southern Miss 42-28

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl
Missouri (-4.5) vs North Carolina
The Big 12 is stronger than the ACC top to bottom, so I'll take a 5-4 Big 12 team over a 3-5 ACC team. Missouri isn't a great squad by any means, but it does have some promising talent, especially with James Franklin at quarterback. Plus, Mizzou did hang around with a lot of the top teams in the Big 12 this year, with the only real blow out being against Oklahoma State. I like Mizzou to take care of North Carolina with relative ease.
The pick: Missouri 31-21

Little Caesars Bowl
Western Michigan vs Purdue (-2.5)
It's a MAC team without any great wins against a Big Ten team without any great wins. Both lost to Michigan by more than 20. Purdue beat Illinois by a touchdown while the Broncos lost to Illinois by a field goal. Sure, edge to Purdue to win, and even cover.
The pick: Purdue 27-23

Belk Bowl
Louisville vs North Carolina State (-2.5)
The Wolfpack finished the season strong by upsetting Clemson and blowing out Maryland to finish at 4-4 in the ACC. Louisville just barely missed out on winning the Big East BCS bid as West Virginia won the tiebreaker with the Cards and Cincy to go to the Orange Bowl. The teams are pretty close, but NC State should have quite a few fans in Charlotte. Yes, that's where the Belk Bowl is played. Just like Vegas, I'll give a slight edge to the Wolfpack.
The pick: NC State 30-27

Military Bowl
Toledo (-3) vs Air Force
Can you really beat Air Force in the Military Bowl? I would say yes if you're Toledo. The Rockets score a lot of points, and only a three-point loss to Northern Illinois prevented them from going to the conference title game. I'll value 7-1 in the MAC over 3-4 in the Mountain West. I like Toledo relatively big.
The pick: Toledo 45-28

Bridgeport Education Holiday Bowl
California vs Texas (-3)

Look for the Texas defense to lead the 'Horns to a bowl win.

Both of these teams enter with 7-5 records overall and 4-5 in their respective conferences. Both took their beatings from teams at the top (Stanford, Oregon, USC, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, etc) and both got their wins over the conference bottom feeders. While the Longhorns' quarterback situation is pretty lousy, there is no denying their defense is outstanding. That will be the difference in the Holiday Bowl.
The pick: Texas 20-13

Champs Sports Bowl
Notre Dame (+3) vs Florida State
Once upon a time, Florida State was ranked in the top five. While Seminoles' offense did not turn out to be as great as some thought, the defense lived up the the hype. I think that spells trouble for the Irish, who failed to reach 20 points against Stanford and USC (who have pretty good defenses, but not as elite as Florida State's). The question is whether or not Florida State can muster enough offense to win the game. I think the game will be close, but Florida State will get just enough to win.
The pick: Florida State 21-20

Valero Alamo Bowl
Washington vs Baylor (-9)
It could be the farewell performance for Heisman winner Robert Griffin. Washington had pretty bad days against other Heisman contenders Andrew Luck and Matt Barkley. Plus, Baylor has some nice wins (Oklahoma, TCU, and Texas) while Washington really doesn't. Look for Griffin to light up the scoreboard before making a decision about the NFL.
The pick: Baylor 48-21

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
Tulsa (+2.5) vs BYU
From the "slightly interesting but mostly worthless information" department: both of these teams defeated Central Florida 24-17. Overall, Tulsa's schedule seems more challenging. BYU's first season of independence came at a cost: the overall schedule was pretty average (two games against teams from Idaho, neither of which was Boise State). Tulsa's season ended in disappointment with the blowout loss to Houston, but overall TU improved a lot throughout Conference USA play. I think TU can score on this BYU team and will leave the Metroplex with a nice win to end the season.
The pick: Tulsa 34-28

New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Rutgers vs Iowa State (+1.5)
While the match-ups in this bowl game tend to be lousy, the Pinstripe Bowl is one of the new bowls that I think is kind of cool. I just think the idea of playing in Yankee Stadium is fun. Then again, I'm not the one out there freezing in New York in December. While Rutgers should have the hometown crowd, I was impressed with the fight Iowa State showed late in the season. I'll take the Cyclones to grind out an ugly win.
The pick: Iowa State 23-20

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Mississippi State (-7) vs Wake Forest
Another shining example of the greatness that is bowl season: a pair of 6-6 teams doing battle in Nashville. As if picking SEC over ACC wasn't reason enough, Wake Forest's season finale convinced me which way to go. Wake lost 41-7 to Vanderbilt, a team that went 6-6 overall and 2-6 in the SEC, just like Mississippi State. Bulldogs roll.
The pick: Mississippi State 35-17 

Insight Bowl
Iowa vs Oklahoma (-14)

Bob Stoops meets his alma mater in the Insight Bowl.

Oklahoma certainly hoped to be playing in the Phoenix area for a bowl game, just not in the Insight Bowl. The preseason Big 12 favorite struggled through injuries and some issues in the defensive secondary to end up here against Bob Stoops' alma mater. The Sooners have way more talent, but my concern is how much they will care about this game. I base my pick off what I saw in the Sun Bowl a couple years ago. The Sooners didn't have much to play for that day either, but they blew Stanford out of the water and used it as a stepping stone for a Big 12 championship season in 2010. Look for a strong effort from the Sooners.
The pick: Oklahoma 38-21

Meineke Car Care Bowl
Texas A&M vs Northwestern (+10)
I'm tempted to just pick this game to go the way almost every important Texas A&M game has gone this year: Aggies lead at the half, collapse late and lose. I think this game will go something like that, but there is too much talent on the A&M sideline to lose to Northwestern. It may be ugly, but the Aggies will escape.
The pick: Texas A&M 30-24 

Hyundai Sun Bowl
Georgia Tech (-3.5) vs Utah
The one thing I can't get past: Utah finished behind UCLA in that lousy Pac-12 South division. Give me Georgia Tech's option attack to run past the Utes in El Paso.
The pick: Georgia Tech 38-27

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Cincinnati (+2.5) vs Vanderbilt
The line is an indication of how much Vegas respects the SEC: Vandy went 6-6 overall and 2-6 in the SEC while Cincinnati went 9-3 overall and 5-2 in the weak Big East. While there's no doubt the SEC and Big East are the yin and the yang of BCS conferences, Vanderbilt may be getting a little too much credit for being an SEC team and Cincinnati may not be getting enough credit. The Bearcats will be out to prove something, and I'll pick them for a slight upset.
The pick: Cincinnati 27-24

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Illinois vs UCLA (+2.5)
Barf. The award for worst bowl game goes right here. The combined record of these teams is 12-13. Both have fired their coaches. One of these "bowl teams" will finish the season with a losing record. Illinois began the season 6-0 before finishing 6-6. UCLA at least showed some fight against Oregon. Illinois is in free fall and really can't score. Give me the Bruins for the "upset" win to finish the season at 7-7. Barf again.
The pick: UCLA 24-23

Chick-Fil-A Bowl
Virginia vs Auburn (-1.5)
A year after being national champs, Auburn ends its 2011 campaign in Atlanta. Considering the number of NFL draft picks the Tigers lost from last season, it wasn't a bad season. Playing in SEC country should serve War Eagle well. Even though Michael Dyer has been suspended, Auburn should have enough defensively to end the season on a high note.
The pick: Auburn 20-17

That's it for the first part of my bowl picks. I'll pick the rest of the games closer to New Year's Day.

Oh, and FreeCreditScore.com. That was the only one at the top that's not tied to a bowl game... yet.

College Football Picks: Week 14

Last week was pretty good for picking winners (8-3), but not so much against the spread (4-7). Rivalry week is gone, though, and now it's on to championship week.

The tough part about picking championship week: there is almost always one big upset, one that throws a wrench into the BCS picture that we think we all have figured out. Picking championship week without picking an upset is almost like filling out an NCAA tournament bracket without picking a 12 to beat a 5. I feel like there might be an upset, but I'm just not sure where that upset will be. I might have to go conservative and pick favorites, but we'll see.

Pac-12 Championship (Friday)
UCLA at #9 Oregon (-31.5)

The first Pac-12 Championship Game features Oregon and...
 a 6-6 UCLA team with a lame duck coach. Hooray?

A 31.5-point spread in a conference championship game seems ridiculous. Based on what we've seen from UCLA this year, though, it might not be. UCLA lucked into the Pac-12 South title thanks to USC being on probation and ineligible for postseason play. I can't remember a team playing in the conference championship game with a coach who had been fired, but that will be the case for UCLA and Rick Neuheisel on Friday.
The Ducks are way too powerful, and they're at home. Giving UCLA almost 32 points seems risky, but I can't ignore the wide gaps in talent and results between these two squads.
The pick: Oregon 45-9

MAC Championship (Friday)
MAC: Ohio vs Northern Illinois (-4)
These teams aren't used to playing this late in the week. These teams combined to play exactly zero Saturday games in November. Northern Illinois played three Tuesday games and a Friday game while Ohio played four midweek games in the past month. That's life in the MAC. Northern Illinois scores nearly 40 points a game and rushes for over 255 yards per game (eighth in the country). I'll take the Huskies.
The pick: Northern Illinois 48-42

SEC Championship
#1 LSU (-13) vs #14 Georgia
I've made my opinion about LSU pretty clear, and my thoughts really aren't much different than most others. LSU is far and away the best team in the country. Even if the Tigers lose this game to Georgia, this team would still have the most impressive body of work and deserves to be in the BCS title game.
I tip my cap to Georgia head coach Mark Richt, who answered his critics and won out after many fans were calling for his head after an 0-2 start. I don't mean to take anything away from what Georgia did, but this next comment is hard to dispute: Georgia had a pretty light schedule by SEC standards. Georgia did not play LSU, Alabama, or Arkansas. Georgia got Auburn at home and (as always) Florida on a neutral field. The toughest SEC game on Georgia's schedule was #12 South Carolina at home, a 45-42 loss. Quite frankly, Georgia's best win might be the road win at Georgia Tech last week.
Georgia is a good team that will certainly deserve a trip to the Cotton Bowl or Capital One Bowl. However, the Bulldogs have not done anything like LSU has. The Tigers are on another level. Georgia may hang around for a while in Atlanta, but I think LSU pulls away and wins comfortably in the end.
The pick: LSU 38-24

Settling the Big East
#23 West Virginia (-1) at South Florida (Thursday)
Once upon a time, South Florida got an impressive win at Notre Dame and looked like a legit Big East contender. Now, the Bulls are 1-5 in the Big East and need this win just to get bowl eligible. The Big East will come down to Louisville, West Virginia, and Cincinnati. West Virginia needs to win this game and hope Cincinnati wins to force a three-way tie, which would be settled by BCS standings. Since West Virginia is the only Big East team ranked in the BCS, the Mountaineers would very likely get the Big East BCS bid if it came down to a three-way tie.
I have to take the Mountaineers against this free-falling South Florida team. While the Mountaineers' offense hasn't turned out to be as explosive as Dana Holgorsen might have hoped, it should be enough this week.
The pick: West Virginia 28-24

Settling the Big East, Part 2
Connecticut (+10) at Cincinnati
Cincinnati needs a win and a West Virginia loss to win the Big East's BCS bid. That would result in a tie with Louisville, and Cincinnati won the head-to-head with Louisville. The Cards are pulling for a Cincinnati loss, because that would mean Louisville goes to the BCS thanks to a head-to-head win over West Virginia.
There has to be some drama this week, and I'll pick this game for that. Connecticut will keep it close and make Big East football fans sweat, but Cincinnati will pull it out.
The pick: Cincinnati 23-21

ACC Championship
#5 Virginia Tech (-7.5) vs #20 Clemson
Speaking of teams in free fall, I am off the Clemson bandwagon. Done. Finished. The Tigers can't score anymore, and they can't stop anyone either. Virginia Tech does not belong in the BCS title conversation, but the Hokies are playing very well and do deserve the ACC title. I'll take Frank Beamer's guys in a rout.
The pick: Virginia Tech 35-14

Big Ten Championship
#13 Michigan State (+9.5) vs #15 Wisconsin

Montee Ball will make one last Heisman case to help
Wisconsin avenge the loss to Michigan State.

The Badgers attempt to avenge the heartbreaking loss that derailed their national title hopes back in October. The Spartans stunned Bucky with arguably the most memorable play from this season. Michigan State has a tough defense, and I expect another fight from Sparty. Wisconsin, though, has a Heisman contender it can lean on. Two months ago, that Heisman contender would have been Russell Wilson. He's still a tough customer, but Montee Ball has emerged as the Wisconsin leader. The junior has 34 touchdowns, nine more than anyone else (Kansas State's Collin Klein is second with 25). I'll take Wisconsin and Ball to grind out a tough win and secure a Rose Bowl berth.
The pick: Wisconsin 30-27

Conference USA Championship
#24 Southern Miss vs #6 Houston (-13)
Biggest Southern Miss fans in America: TCU. If Houston loses, TCU has a slight chance to leap to 16 in the BCS and steal a bid (the #18 Frogs could jump the Big Ten loser and maybe Georgia or Baylor to get to 16. That would make TCU the highest-ranked non-AQ conference champion, ahead of the Big East champ, and therefore into the BCS). However, I wouldn't encourage TCU fans to get their hopes up.
Houston truly proved itself last week in Tulsa. The Cougars blew out a confident, talented Tulsa team, and I expect more of the same in Houston this week. Houston's offense is explosive, and the defense is better than I thought it would be. Case Keenum will make one more Heisman statement as Houston cruises its way to a BCS bid.
The pick: Houston 56-24
  
State championship?
#22 Texas at #17 Baylor (-2.5)
Texas won't be winning a conference title this year, but the Longhorns can at least win state. A win over Baylor would give Texas a clean sweep over in-state rivals Texas Tech, Texas A&M, and the Bears (and Rice, if you want to pile it on).
Unfortunately for Texas, Baylor has an explosive offense led by one of the most exciting players in the country. Baylor also doesn't collapse in the second half like the Aggies tend to do. Robert Griffin will be looking to make his last Heisman statement before heading to New York, where he should at least be a finalist for the award. I think the 'Horns' defense is great and should slow him down a bit. I still don't have much faith in that banged up Texas offense, though. I'll take Griffin to score just enough to win and cover.
The pick: Baylor 28-24

Bedlam
#10 Oklahoma (+3.5) at #3 Oklahoma State

Cowboys and Sooners for the Big 12 title. Should be a dandy.

I saved the best for last (insert Vanessa Williams joke here).
This the game folks in Oklahoma have been anticipating since the season began. While it fell short of being the national semifinal that some had hoped it would be, it will still decide the Big 12 title, making it arguably the most anticipated Bedlam game ever.
Considering the history of this rivalry (the Sooners have an absurd 82-16-7 advantage), it seems crazy that OU is an underdog. It's about this year, though, and this year, OSU certainly looks strong. The offense has been clicking from day one, and the defense has been tough and opportunistic.
The Sooners, though, still own this rivalry and are a legitimate threat to end Oklahoma State's dreams of capturing a Big 12 title and a BCS bid. OU has a strong front seven defensively, but the secondary has been questioned all year. That plays into Oklahoma State's strength of passing the ball all over the field. The Sooners are a little banged up, too, but they won't use that as an excuse. OU fully expects to go into Stillwater and win with a tough, aggressive defense. However, I think the Cowboys are sound enough on offense to finally get that breakthrough win. It should be a great one, but I give the edge to the Pokes.
The pick: Oklahoma State 31-28

There may not be much drama as it relates to the BCS national championship, but then again, maybe there will be. See you next time for the bowl picks.

BCS Championship Game Should be LSU and...

Nobody.

Yes, the BCS Championship Game should be LSU and nobody else. We don't need to have a title game to determine the best team in the country. To me, it's pretty obvious who that is. Even if LSU goes to Atlanta this Saturday and gets upset by Georgia in the SEC Championship, the Tigers' body of work is unmatched. A one-loss LSU team would still be the most accomplished team in the country.

No doubt about it: the Tigers have been dominant.

The Tigers have done everything, answered every challenge. LSU has played about as difficult a schedule as a team can realistically play. Third-ranked Oregon a neutral field? A 40-27 win that wasn't even as close as the score would indicate. A road trip to #16 West Virginia? A 47-21 rout.

Then the Tigers marched through the stronger division of toughest conference in the country. They won the much (over)hyped game at second-ranked Alabama. They blasted the up-and-coming, third-ranked Razorbacks 41-17. Florida and Auburn both came to Baton Rouge as ranked teams and lost by more than four touchdowns.

The final count: seven wins over ranked opponents (Georgia in the SEC title game could be the eighth). No other team has more than four. Only one team (Alabama) has more than three. LSU has 12 wins overall. In half of those games, the opponent failed to get 10 points. The opponent scored more than 11 in only three.

No one is going to argue that LSU is the clear number one. In my opinion, LSU has lapped the field.

That said, I'm not completely serious about not having a title game. This is the format that college football programs agreed to at the beginning of the season, so we need to play it out. The contenders to get that last shot at powerful LSU are pretty obvious, and they all have their pros and cons.

Houston (12-0): Beat someone better than Tulsa. Then we'll talk. I know it's unfortunate that there was no one on Houston's schedule on that level, but that's life in college football. Ask Boise State and TCU. They know this drill.

Stanford (11-1): It stinks, but the old "you didn't even win your division" argument hurts a lot, especially when Oregon, the team that beat Stanford, has two losses and is out of the national title picture. Stanford is certainly a solid team, a BCS bowl team, but not a BCS finalist.

Virginia Tech (11-1): Houston's schedule is almost more impressive. There were only two ranked teams on the Hokies' slate: they lost to 13th ranked Clemson, who has since tanked, and they defeated #21 Georgia Tech. The Hokies just haven't played or beaten many quality teams. Orange Bowl? Sure, Virginia Tech can have that (assuming it gets a measure of revenge against free-falling Clemson in the ACC Championship). Nothing beyond that though.

Alabama (11-1): Almost as dominant as LSU, Alabama is a unanimous #2 in the latest AP Poll behind the unanimous #1 Tigers. There aren't quite as many big wins, but Alabama has been just as dominant in the SEC with the exception of one game. That game was at home to those LSU Tigers, of course. The situation reminds me of 2006, when #1 Ohio State defeated #2 Michigan. One big argument against a rematch then was that Ohio State had passed its test against Michigan and shouldn't have to do it again. Voters boosted Florida into that number two spot, and Chris Leak (and a freshman named Tim Tebow) led the Gators to the national title. I think the "test has been passed" argument applies even more to LSU/Alabama. Unlike Michigan in 2006, Alabama had its shot at home. The Tide had its chance and didn't come through. Even so, few people can argue that Alabama is the second-best team in the country based on its entire body of work.

Under tough circumstances, OSU lost to Iowa State, but
would a Bedlam win make voters take a second look at OSU?

Oklahoma State (10-1): The overtime road loss to Iowa State is so frustrating. It seems almost inappropriate to bring up the plane crash that morning that killed women's basketball coaches Kurt Budke and Miranda Serna as a reason why the team may not have been focused. However, it also seems naive to think that such a tragic event (especially in that community, which experienced a similar tragedy almost 11 years earlier) wasn't at least on the players' minds the entire day and night. Outside influences aside, Oklahoma State lost to a mediocre team. That's the bottom line. None of the four teams listed above have lost to mediocre, unranked teams.
The Cowboys have one more chance to make a statement, though. If OSU can get past Oklahoma, the team that has dominated the Bedlam rivalry for decades (82-16-7 all-time), that would give voters something to think about. It would give the Cowboys four wins over ranked opponents (the same as Alabama, and more than anyone else besides LSU) and a conference title (something Stanford and Alabama will not have). Is OSU a better team than Alabama? Maybe not. Then again, how can we know for sure if OSU never takes the field against either LSU or Alabama?

My final conclusion: if you want the second best team in the country, that team is Alabama. If you want another deserving team that hasn't had its shot at LSU yet, that would be Oklahoma State if it wins Bedlam. If OSU loses Bedlam, forget it. The rematch is inevitable and the only fair option.

Final thought: if Alabama gets its rematch and wins, LSU should get one, too. In Baton Rouge.

College Football Picks: Week 13

The good news last week was that I went 7-3 picking winners and 5-4 against the spread. I bet you can guess two of the games I missed, though. I was way off on Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. Then again, so was everyone else. Still, those games put a huge damper on what could have been (and still might be) the most anticipated Bedlam game ever. It's just part of the annual November shock that tends to happen every year in college football. It reminds us once again to stop speculating in mid-October that we'll have five or six unbeaten teams. In the end, we rarely have more than two.

No sense cursing over last week's mistakes though. It's rivalry weekend, and I love my rivalry games. There were so many intriguing match-ups, it was tough trimming this week's blog down to just ten games. So, I went to eleven.

The locals
#8 Houston at Tulsa (+3) (Friday)

G.J. Kinne and the Hurricane are out to not only bust
Houston's BCS dreams, but also win a conference title.

I said a few weeks ago that this game could have an impact on the BCS, and here we are. Houston has made its way into the top ten, and Tulsa has a shot to play spoiler. Not only that, Tulsa has an outside shot at getting into the BCS itself. (A lot has to happen there, though: including TCU losing to UNLV, Tulsa going on to win the conference, and a handful of other top 25 teams dropping, but that's a topic for next week.)
The winner of this game not only wins the Conference USA West division, but will also host the C-USA Championship next week. I think Bobby Lewis said it best about these two teams: they are about the same. Trade schedules, and Tulsa is unbeaten and ranked way too high in the BCS while Houston would be 8-3 and underrated. Both are scoring a lot of points. Both are unbeaten (and rarely challenged) in Conference USA. Tulsa is the home 'dog, so I have to like the Hurricane. Houston may have the higher profile quarterback, but G.J. Kinne just has so many weapons at his disposal. That includes the dynamic combination of Trey Watts and Ja'Terian Douglas in the backfield. Those two impress me more every week. Look for a lot of points, but maybe just a bit more on the Tulsa side.
The pick: Tulsa 48-45

Iowa State (+28) at #9 Oklahoma
The Sooners have to be hurting after their first ever loss to Baylor. Considering what happened in Waco and in Ames last week, that 28-point line seems ridiculously high. Although, a 30-point win by Oklahoma in Norman certainly wouldn't shock me. I'm sure Bob Stoops had quite a pep talk for his guys after last week's embarrassment. The defensive secondary is a big concern for the Sooners, but I don't see Jared Barnett torching the Sooners the way Robert Griffin did. OU should certainly bounce back at home, but 28 points is just too high for me, especially when you consider the injuries they are dealing with. Plus, once the win is secured, I'm sure Bob Stoops will pull all of his top players to make sure OU is as healthy as possible heading into Bedlam, where the Big 12 title and a trip to the Fiesta Bowl will be on the line (and maybe the national championship for Oklahoma State). OU wins comfortably, but Iowa State covers.
The pick: Oklahoma 49-24 

Turkey with a side of bitter hatred
#25 Texas at Texas A&M (-8) (Thursday)
After your Thanksgiving dinner, watch the Aggies and Longhorns meet for what will unfortunately be the last time in the foreseeable future. It's a shame that one school's obsession with a TV network and another school's obsession with getting out of the other's shadow has led to this, but that's the way it is. While Texas A&M does have a knack for blowing second half leads this season, Texas has a knack for bad offensive play all game long. The Aggies should be able to score plenty, and I'm not sure Texas will. The Aggies get the last laugh. Win and cover. Here's to hoping that somewhere down the road, these two put their egos aside and play each other again in all sports.
The pick: Texas A&M 31-21

We knew them when
Pittsburgh (+7) at West Virginia (Friday)
Former TU head coach Todd Graham and former OSU offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen meet in the Backyard Brawl. These two hate each other going back to Holgorsen's days at Houston, when he accused Graham's Golden Hurricane players of faking injuries to slow down Houston's fast-paced offense. Naturally, Graham took offense to that.
The Mountaineers' offense hasn't been quite as high-powered as Holgorsen might have hoped, but I think it will be enough to beat Pitt in Morgantown. The Panthers will play well enough to keep it close, and hopefully they don't have to fake any injuries to do so.
The pick: West Virginia 24-20

The big one
#3 Arkansas (+13) at #1 LSU (Friday)

There's a lot more on the line than this boot in Baton Rouge.

This is the game that has BCS officials holding their breath. They certainly want one undefeated, unquestionably deserving team in the national championship game. If Arkansas wins, there is total chaos with several teams all legitimately laying claim to those two BCS title game spots. An Arkansas win not only means LSU is no longer a lock for the BCS title game, but the SEC West would suddenly be in doubt, as a three-way tie between these two and Alabama (assuming the Tide wins the Iron Bowl) would come down to a BCS tiebreaker. I'm not sure what is more foolish: picking against LSU or picking against the inevitability that is BCS chaos.
Arkansas is great and certainly worthy of a BCS slot, but I have to look at its game against Alabama to determine how it will fare in Baton Rouge. The Hogs couldn't run the ball (but who can against Alabama?), and gave up big plays on defense and special teams that allowed Alabama to pull away for a 38-14 rout. However, Arkansas was still trying to figure out how to replace the injured Knile Davis, who broke his ankle in the preseason. The offense is really clicking now on the strength of Tyler Wilson's arm. Plus, Davis has actually been practicing for three weeks. I doubt he plays, but don't be shocked if he makes an appearance.
That doesn't change the fact that LSU still has an elite defense and plenty of skill on offense. LSU is a special team that has answered every challenge this season. The Tigers have held opponents to 11 points or fewer in nine of their eleven games. Arkansas is talented enough to keep it close, but I just can't go against this Tiger team in Baton Rouge. LSU fans will be singing "Hey, Fighting Tigers" all the way to Atlanta.
The pick: LSU 30-21

The Iron Bowl
#2 Alabama at #24 Auburn (+21)
Roll Tide. War Eagle. It's one of the best rivalries in sports, and it's hard for those of us outside of the state of Alabama to fully understand. The Crimson Tide has an elephant on its sideline, and Tiger fans yell "War Eagle." Whatever. It's almost always a great game, which is why I have to take those 21 points when picking the spread.
Auburn, unfortunately, could use those 21 points in the actual game. Alabama's defense is fantastic. How it gave up 21 points to Georgia Southern last week can only be explained by saying "they didn't care," and maybe that's true. They care this week. Keep in mind that second-ranked Alabama could almost lock itself into the national championship game with a win, and it might even win the SEC West if Arkansas beats LSU. That would create a three-way tie in the SEC West that would be settled by the BCS. So, anything could happen there. As for this game, Alabama should shut Auburn down and score enough to win, but not to cover.
The pick: Alabama 24-6

Fool me once...
#22 Notre Dame at #6 Stanford (-6.5)

Look for Stanford to make one last BCS statement against ND.

After Notre Dame's performance against USC, I told myself I would not be fooled by Notre Dame over the following four games. I would not let myself be convinced that an 8-3 Notre Dame team has figured it out, won't turn the ball over and can beat Stanford.
Thankfully, I haven't forgotten the USC game and how Notre Dame has fared against really talented teams. That 16-14 win over Boston College certainly didn't prove anything. Stanford is one of the best teams in the country. Notre Dame, quite simply, is not. Stanford will not only win, but the Cardinal might try to blow out the Irish to get some BCS style points.
The pick: Stanford 45-24

Wait until Urban gets here
Ohio State at #15 Michigan (-7.5)
It's another one of the great rivalries in sports. Unfortunately, Ohio State is rebuilding. The Buckeyes might get a big win off the field if/when Urban Meyer becomes their new head coach. On the field, Denard Robinson should lead Michigan to plenty of points at home to cover.
The pick: Michigan 30-17

Follow the Leader
#19 Penn State at #16 Wisconsin (-14.5)
Pretty simple here: the winner takes the Big Ten Leaders division. As uninspiring as Wisconsin has been on the road, Wisconsin has been close to unstoppable at home. Penn State's defense is tough, but the Badgers' offense is tougher. Wisconsin should win this game with ease.
The pick: Wisconsin 40-21

What happened?
 #17 Clemson (+4) at #12 South Carolina
Once upon a time, Clemson's offense looked unstoppable. It now seems quite stoppable for some reason. A 37-13 loss to NC State when the Tigers still had an outside shot at the BCS title game? Awful. Once a big buyer on Clemson, I'm not so sure anymore. I'm also not sure what to think about South Carolina. The last team to beat Georgia, South Carolina barely got past Tennessee, Florida and Mississippi State. I will reluctantly say Clemson's offense has a revival against the hated Gamecocks.
The pick: Clemson 31-28

Clean, old fashioned hate
#13 Georgia at #23 Georgia Tech (+6)
It's a rivalry my family knows very well. Georgia could easily get caught looking ahead because the Bulldogs know they play one of the top teams in the country next week in the SEC Championship. Georgia Tech's option attack can be frustrating and will keep the game close, but I'll take the Dawgs to pull this one out before attempting to bust the BCS next week.
The pick: Georgia 28-24

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.

College Football Picks: Week 12

It wasn't a bad week in Week 11: 7-3 picking winners, 5-5 vs the spread. After some great games that really shook up the BCS picture last week, Week 12 lacks any really great games (which is probably why College GameDay is at SMU vs. Houston. Yuck). So, (jinx alert) while I feel pretty good about picking winners, the spread is where the real challenge lies this week. So, if the spread doesn't add any excitement to these picks, maybe a bunch of random video links will.

The locals
#2 Oklahoma State (-26.5) at Iowa State (Friday)

Brandon Weeden should not only be in the Heisman
discussion, I think he could be the front-runner.

The Cowboys can see their goals. They are so close to the finish line, but they still have to get there. The Big 12 title and a BCS championship game berth are right there on the horizon. Only two games remain: the most anticipated Bedlam game ever... and this lousy Friday trip to Ames. None of the other Big 12 bottom feeders (Kansas, Texas Tech, Baylor) have challenged OSU. There's no reason to believe Iowa State will. There is no real intimidating home field advantage there. OSU has been in a zone lately where it seems that it can't do anything wrong. Cowboys win and cover. Bring on Bedlam.
The pick: Oklahoma State 56-20

#5 Oklahoma (-15.5) at #22 Baylor
When you look at the bottom of the Top 25, there are a lot of mediocre teams down there with three or four losses. Baylor is one of them. A few weeks ago, I might have thought Baylor was a real trap game for OU. It still might be, but Baylor's overtime win over Kansas did nothing for its credibility. The Sooners are dealing with injuries, but not enough for them to be too concerned about a trip to Waco. Landry Jones is still playing, and there's plenty of talent on the depth chart to make the Sooners confident about Baylor. Then again, have they ever not been confident about Baylor?
The pick: Oklahoma 49-27

Tulsa (-13.5) at UTEP
Back to the topic of teams with their goals in sight, Tulsa knows that its game with Houston in two weeks will decide the Conference USA West division no matter what happens this week. That's no reason to fall asleep, though. TU still needs to win this game if it potentially wants to host the C-USA title game should the Hurricane make it there. Tulsa looks stronger every week. El Paso is always a tricky place to play, but I'd be stunned if Tulsa collapsed a week before the Houston game. Although UTEP did only lose to Houston by a touchdown, TU is playing so well right now. Tulsa gets it done and even covers on the road.
The pick: Tulsa 40-24

Meanwhile, across the state line...
Mississippi State (+13) at #6 Arkansas

Don't rule Arkansas out of the BCS or the national championship.

We're all excited about our teams in the state of Oklahoma, but let us not forget about our neighbors to the east. Do not rule Arkansas out of the national championship game. Seriously. I'm not saying they're the best team in the country. Like many, I think they're the third best team in the SEC West. However, imagine this scenario: Arkansas beats LSU and crushes Georgia in the SEC title game, OSU wins Bedlam, and Auburn upsets Alabama. Couldn't the national title game be OSU and Arkansas? Or take it a step further: OU gets upset by Baylor and then beats OSU. Arkansas could meet Oregon for everything, right? Maybe, but that's getting way ahead of ourselves.
Arkansas still needs to beat Mississippi State first. Remember when we thought the Bulldogs were poised to make a run and contend in the SEC? That didn't quite happen. The Bulldogs have only one win in the conference, but they really don't get blown out. They hang tough but just can't score enough (19-6 loss to LSU, 24-7 to Alabama, 24-10 to Georgia). Don't be surprised if Mississippi State hangs around and makes Arkansas sweat a little. The Hogs won't fall at home though.
The pick: Arkansas 24-14

Seriously?
#13 Kansas State (+9.5) at #23 Texas
This is the most confusing line of the week. Texas isn't that strong to begin with. Now, the Longhorns have lost Fozzy Whittaker for the season and their top two freshman backs are also dinged up. Kansas State may not be loaded with four and five-star prospects like Texas, but it is loaded up with well-coached players who are finding a way to win every week. Kansas State +9.5 points is a spread that seems too good to be true, so I'm definitely taking that one. Could Texas play well enough at home to knock off an overachieving K-State team? Maybe. However, Kansas State is not only healthier, but simply playing much better football right now. Give me the Wildcats for not only the cover, but the win as well.
The pick: Kansas State 36-30

I am Legend
#16 Nebraska at #18 Michigan (-3)
There's a three-way tie atop the Big Ten Legends division between these two and Michigan State. So, this is obviously a very important game in that race. Big Ten teams have been up and down all year, and both of these teams know that. As inconsistent as Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson can be, I'll take him over Taylor Martinez. With that in mind, I'll take the Wolverines at home.
The pick: Michigan 28-24

If it's good enough for GameDay...
SMU at #11 Houston (-19.5)

Wild guess: Corso will rock this mascot head Saturday.

Yes, this is where ESPN will be on Saturday. I'd be shocked if Lee Corso put on anything other than a Cougar head. Like I referenced earlier, Houston is on a collision course with Tulsa. I can't see Case Keenum falling in what is finally his senior day (this is the 23-year old's sixth year on campus). Houston will do what Houston does: throw it a lot, score a lot, and win.
The pick: Houston 56-27


The Fightin' Catholics
Boston College (+24.5) at Notre Dame
I've gotten requests from certain people to pick Notre Dame every week. So, here goes (there are no other games I really want to pick anyway). The Irish sure are good at blowing out bad teams. They are getting a lot points here at home. BC, though, always gives Notre Dame headaches. The Eagles are really down this year (3-7), but this is a rivalry game. Notre Dame should win fairly comfortably, but I think 24.5 is a big number.
The pick: Notre Dame 38-21

Duel in the Desert
Arizona at Arizona State (-10.5)
I liked Arizona State earlier this year. Not so much now. Once thought to be the front-runners in the Pac-12 South (remember: USC is ineligible for postseason play), now the Sun Devils have lost to UCLA and Washington State. Ouch.
Luckily for them, Arizona is much worse. Win and cover for ASU.
The pick: Arizona State 33-21

Down a level, up in drama
Liberty at Stony Brook (No Line)
Finally, some drama! We have to go to the FCS to find some this week. It's the regular season finale in the Big South, and both these teams are 5-0. The winner gets the conference crown. Flames and Seawolves. That's right. Those are their mascots. Stony Brook has scored at least 42 points in every conference game, and that includes 76 put up in last week's rout of Gardner-Webb. Liberty's had some high-scoring contests as well (63 against Coastal Carolina), but it averages 40 points per game in conference. Stony Brook is averaging 50.4. I'll take the Seawolves.
The pick: Stony Brook 50-40

And, hey, if these games don't do anything for you, remember that college basketball has started. So, we have that going for us, which is nice.

College Football Picks: Week 11

Herbstreit was shocked at how well I did last week.

I really shook up the blog last week by picking not just winners, but also picking against the spread. The results? Pretty good actually: 9-1 picking winners and... wait for it... 6-2-1 against the spread. Shocking I know. I got to enjoy the thrill that is the "garbage cover," specifically Texas A&M's late touchdown and two-point conversion that closed Oklahoma's lead to 16 points, thus beating the spread of 16.5 and giving me a W. Too bad I wasn't in Vegas. I can only assume that this will mean I'll be on the wrong side of the garbage cover this week.

As for this week, there are a lot more highly-anticipated games that should continue to shape the national championship picture.

The locals
#2 Oklahoma State (-17) at Texas Tech

The only reason OSU fans are nervous about this one is because the Red Raiders stunned the Sooners in Norman. Look at the rest of the Red Raiders' Big 12 games, and what do you have? Tech was blown out at Texas, embarrassed at home against Iowa State and even struggled with Kansas. Sure, strange things can happen in Lubbock (especially with that 11 a.m. kick). That doesn't change the fact that Texas Tech has really taken a dive since that OU win. Plus, OSU thrives off creating turnovers in the passing game, and that should really hamper Tech's offense. I'll take OSU covering in a blowout.

The pick: Oklahoma State 49-24

Marshall (+18) at Tulsa
While I think Tulsa should win, I think the Hurricane is getting a lot of points at home here. Marshall (4-5, 3-2) is not a terrible Conference USA team. While the Thundering Herd hasn't played a schedule as tough as Tulsa's, two of its losses are to West Virginia and Virginia Tech. Plus, Marshall did defeat Louisville and crushed a UAB team that gave TU some trouble.
Tulsa, though, really took a big step forward by winning a tough road game at UCF in the final minutes. It was a gut check game that showed the team's toughness. TU has the look of a conference title contender, but there are more bumps in the road before that talk can truly start. Marshall is one of those bumps. I think Marshall really challenges TU at home. The Golden Hurricane might pull away late, but I don't think it will be enough to cover.
The pick: Tulsa 36-21

Return of the Quack
#7 Oregon (+3.5) at #4 Stanford

Many have forgotten about the Ducks in the title chase.

Oregon has been quietly lurking in the Top 10 of the BCS and not getting much thought as a possible one-loss team in the title game. The Ducks could change that with a win at unbeaten Stanford. The Ducks' only loss is to top-ranked LSU, and they have one of the nation's highest scoring offenses. Stanford is eighth nationally in total yards and third in points scored. Oregon is seventh and fifth, respectively. I'm going more with a gut feeling than any statistics, but I like Oregon's speed to cause problems for the Cardinal. LaMichael James can not only make some game-changing plays in this one, but he can also help Oregon control the clock and keep Andrew Luck on the sideline. Oregon not only plays closer than 3.5, but upsets Stanford on the road.
The pick: Oregon 34-31

Last chance
TCU at #5 Boise State (-15.5)
The main reason America is interested: we all know this is the last chance for Boise State to get upset. Whether they love or hate the Broncos, most everyone agrees that TCU is by far the most likely team in the Mountain West to beat Boise State. The Broncos have two priorities. First, win the game. Second, make a statement because 30-point wins over New Mexico and Wyoming won't impress any voters. From what I've seen from TCU's pass defense this season, Kellen Moore should have a field day. Yes, TCU can run the ball, keep Moore on the sideline and grind out a few touchdowns. However, look for Boise State to score early and often. TCU will have trouble keeping up. Boise not only wins at home, but covers to try to impress some voters.
The pick: Boise State 45-24

Last big test
#20 Auburn (+13.5) at #15 Georgia

Georgia fans were ready to run Mark Richt out of town
in September. He's 2 wins away from the SEC title game.

The phrase "they control their own destiny" is overused, but it's true about Georgia. The Bulldogs stand to win the SEC East and get a shot at LSU in the SEC Championship if they can get past Auburn this week and Kentucky next week. The Wildcats shouldn't be much of a challenge, but I think Auburn will. While Georgia should win, I think the rival Tigers will make this one interesting. War Eagle covers, but Georgia wins.
The pick: Georgia 31-21

Elsewhere in the Peach State
#10 Virginia Tech (-1) at #21 Georgia Tech (Thursday)
Vegas has been playing jump rope with this line. Some have Georgia Tech by a point, but most have the Hokies by a point. It will be strength against strength as one of the top rushing attacks in the nation (GT ranks sixth) goes up against one of the nation's best rushing defenses (VT allowing about 85 yards a game). The winner of this game will likely be in the ACC Championship Game. In a big game like this, even on the road, I'll take Beamer ball. That means big plays on special teams, and David Wilson leads the offense to just enough points to win.
The pick: Virginia Tech 24-21

LHN vs SEC

#16 Texas (-1) at Missouri

The latest team to bolt the Big 12 hosts the team with the television contract that started all the drama to begin with. Texas may enter with some confidence after pounding lowly Kansas and struggling Texas Tech. Missouri scores a lot of points but also gives up a lot. So, the Tigers can beat just about anyone as long as their defense can get a few stops. The offenses almost cancel each other out for me. Henry Josey is a dependable runner that makes plays and opens up the passing game. The Longhorns' rushing attack has been strengthened by the emergence of freshman Joe Bergeron, who has rushed for over 300 yards combined in two games while highly-touted freshman Malcolm Brown nursed a toe injury. Brown could play this week. So, with the offenses pretty close, I'll make my decision on the defenses. Texas has a defensive line that should cause problems for James Franklin, and Missouri's D just isn't that strong.

The pick: Texas 31-27

Still no respect
Texas A&M at #14 Kansas State (+4.5)
This is one of those lines that makes me wonder what Vegas knows. Anyone who watched Kansas State push Oklahoma State to the brink last week had to be impressed with that team. The question for me is if their confidence is crushed or strengthened after that close loss to OSU. The Wildcats play hard, don't beat themselves, and can run the ball all day. Texas A&M has a reputation for second half collapses, and the Aggies just lost leading rusher Christine Michael for the season with a torn ACL. There's still plenty of talent on that offense, but the Aggies have still underachieved all season. I don't think Bill Snyder's guys will feel sorry for themselves. I think they'll remain focused on a potential Cotton Bowl bid. K-State won't only cover, but they'll beat the Aggies in Manhattan.
The pick: Kansas State 38-36

Somewhere, Bill Stewart is smiling
West Virginia (+3.5) at #23 Cincinnati
For all the hype surrounding the arrival of Dana Holgorsen, the results have been a bit underwhelming in Morgantown. Sure, the Mountaineers can score. They can't stop anyone either, which is why WVU has lost to Syracuse and Louisville. Holgorsen called out his team for lack of effort at this week's press conference, and he even said he might only take 55 players to Cincinnati if some guys don't earn their spot on the trip.
Whether or not that motivates WVU remains to be seen. What we do know is that Cincinnati may not always win pretty, but the Bearcats do find ways to win. West Virginia may score enough to keep it close, but not enough to win.
The pick: Cincinnati 33-30

Finally...
#19 Nebraska (-3.5) at #12 Penn State
I feel like any cute names or links in this last pick would be insensitive to the disastrous situation that surrounds Joe Paterno and the Penn State program. I could extend the blog by another 10,000 words with thoughts on the situation, but all I'll say is that it has to be a tremendous distraction for the entire team. It's embarrassing, and it's a tragedy that it happened.
On the field, Nebraska (with all of its flaws) is still the toughest challenge Penn State has seen in the conference. Even though Nebraska is coming off a bad loss at home, I think the Huskers will be refocused for this one. I'm not sure Penn State will be focused at all.
The pick: Nebraska 28-17