Bowl Picks: Part Two

It's time for the rest of my bowl picks. Take a look back at the first 23 to see how I'm doing so far (or don't). I'm doing pretty well picking bowl winners (17-6) and just above .500 against the spread (12-11). Expect more of the same in 2012. Here are the picks for the 12 games that will help us kick off the new year.

TicketCity Bowl
Houston vs Penn State (+7)
Houston opened as a nine-point favorite, but the line has come down since then. People are understandably down on Houston after the Cougars not only blew a chance to go to the BCS, but got embarassed by Southern Miss in the process. Plus, Kevin Sumlin took the A&M job. But, Penn State certainly takes the cake when it comes to awkward coaching situations. On the plus side, the Nittany Lions have already been through a few games with Tom Bradley at the helm. They'll be ready. Penn State will definitely be the best defense Case Keenum has seen all year, and I think that will give the Cougars a lot of trouble. Even if Matt McGloin is out, it's not the Penn State offense that will win the game. It's going to be on defense. I'll take the troubled Penn State team to not only cover, but pull off the win.
The pick: Penn State 24-21

Outback Bowl
Michigan State vs Georgia (-3)

Look for Richt and his Dawgs
to end the season on a high note.

Mark Richt has been on the hot seat all season, but I'm pretty sure that seat has cooled off quite a bit since September. He's done a solid job with this team and reminded his detractors why he's been in Athens for 11 seasons now. Michigan State's defense is tough, but Georgia's is just as good and maybe better. I like Georgia's offensive weapons better as well. Finally, if it's the SEC against the Big Ten, that seals it for me. Georgia should win.
The pick: Georgia 33-27

Capital One Bowl
Nebraska vs South Carolina (-2.5)
Nebraska is 3-0 all-time against South Carolina, but I'm pretty sure that changes this year. The Gamecocks have a strong defense that will be a nightmare for Huskers QB Taylor Martinez. Look for South Carolina to load up against the run and dare Martinez to beat them with his arm, and I don't think he will. Nebraska's defense will be a challenge for South Carolina, too, but I think the Gamecocks will get enough to win.
The pick: South Carolina 21-17

Gator Bowl
Ohio State (+2) vs Florida
Call it the Urban Meyer Bowl if you so desire. Meyer's former team takes on his future team. As much as Florida fans want to blame the underachieving offense on Charlie Weis, I think it was more the talent (or lack thereof) he was coaching. Ohio State may not be that great (6-6, just like Florida), but I think the Buckeyes have a defense that can frustrate the underachieving Florida offense. I'm just not sure what to think of Florida right now. The Gators should be okay in the long term, but I like the Buckeyes in this one. Enjoy the bowl win, Ohio State. You won't have one next year.
The pick: Ohio State 21-20

Rose Bowl
Wisconsin vs Oregon (-6)
Teach me how to Bucky or Teach me how to Duckie? Both of these teams score in bunches, so look for plenty of points in this one. Wisconsin's defense has been great at home, but not so much away from Madison. The Badgers' combo of Russell Wilson and Montee Ball will help Wisconsin keep up for most of the night, but when the game is over, Oregon should have a bit too much for Wisconsin's defense.
The pick: Oregon 45-38

Fiesta Bowl
Stanford vs Oklahoma State (-4)

Few bowl games interest me as much as the Fiesta Bowl.
The quarterback match-up is a big reason why.

This isn't the game Oklahoma State wanted to play in, but I still expect the Cowboys to be fired up for their first BCS appearance. It will very likely be Andrew Luck's final college game, and he'll probably be the most talked-about player. That's fine with OSU. While Luck may be the best pro prospect in the game, don't be shocked if Brandon Weeden outplays him. Weeden has better skill players around him. While Luck has good mobility and pinpoint accuracy, Weeden has the stronger throwing arm; and his accuracy, while maybe not quite at Luck's level, is still pretty darn good. Those two will be fun to watch all night. On the other side of the ball, Oklahoma State's defense should match up very well with the lack of speed on Stanford's offense. While the Cardinal will certainly hope to slow the game down a bit, OSU may set the tone with what Bill Young called "basketball on grass" this week. OSU likes to score in a hurry, and by the end of the night, that may be too much for Stanford. I just look at what Oregon and USC were able to do against Stanford, and I think OSU can have similar results. Win and cover for the Pokes.
The pick: Oklahoma State 38-31
Bonus OSU uniform prediction: This has to be the game they go with all black, right? Fans have been anxious to see it all season.

Sugar Bowl
Michigan (-2.5) vs Virginia Tech
This is a game the BCS got wrong. Kansas State deserved to be in this game more than either of these two, but we all make mistakes I guess. Virginia Tech had a weak schedule and didn't get many great wins. I'm not sure the Hokies are BCS quality this season. While Michigan doesn't exactly bring a lot of quality wins to the table either, the Wolverines' defense is strong, and they have an explosive quarterback who should be able to put on a show. I'll take Shoelace to lead Michigan to a comfortable Sugar Bowl win.
The pick: Michigan 35-20

Orange Bowl
West Virginia vs Clemson (-3)
This is another less-than-inspiring BCS game, but unlike Michigan and Virginia Tech, these teams earned automatic berths and had to be chosen. Despite Clemson's stumbles down the stretch, the Tigers probably are a better overall team than West Virginia. I don't think either team will be able to stop the other. Look for a lot of points, but probably more for Clemson.
The pick: Clemson 42-38

Cotton Bowl
Kansas State (+7.5) vs Arkansas

I don't think Kansas State will win, but I do expect Collin Klein
to keep his team in it all the way to the end.

It's an exciting match-up featuring a pair of teams that got hosed by the BCS. Arkansas got left out because there were two SEC teams ahead of them, and Kansas State was simply disrespected by the Orange Bowl. Vegas isn't showing Kansas State much respect either, but that's nothing new to them (or me, which is why I think I've used a Rodney Dangerfield clip about five times for K-State this year). I've been impressed with the effort and execution of the Wildcats all year. While I do think Arkansas has too much talent to lose this game, I do think Bill Snyder's guys will keep it close all the way to the final gun.
The pick: Arkansas 38-35

BBVA Compass Bowl
SMU (+3.5) vs Pittsburgh
This is one of those lousy bowl games that gets sandwiched between the first few BCS games and the national championship game. It's a 7-5 Conference USA team against a 6-6 Big East team. Hooray.
Pitt opened as a seven-point favorite, but the line has come tumbling down since Todd Graham stunned the team by bolting to Arizona State. Pitt's players may still be in a bit of shock and probably a little angry. SMU is not a great team this season, but I think the Mustangs will hang around before eventually falling to Pitt in an ugly game.
The pick: Pittsburgh 20-17

GoDaddy.com Bowl
Arkansas State (-1.5) vs Northern Illinois
Speaking of lousy games just before the championship, how about this one? At least we'll have the semi-racy, over-the-top GoDaddy.com ads that may or may not have Danica Patrick, and that's probably not enough to get me to watch. Although, give these two teams credit: they did both win their respective conferences (Sun Belt and MAC). Both can score a lot of points (Northern Illinois is 13th in the nation in points scored while Arkansas State is 27th), but NIU tends to get its yards on the ground (8th in the country rushing) while ASU does it through the air (17th in passing yards). Arkansas State, by the way, is the future home of former TU offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn, who surprisingly left his OC job at Auburn to become a head coach. I'll take the Red Wolves over the Huskies. You know which one is which right?
The pick: Arkansas State 52-49

BCS National Championship
Alabama vs LSU (+1)

I'm picking Les Miles get his second BCS trophy.

It's the big one. I know many of us were understandably underwhelmed with the 9-6 decision back in November. Ugly score aside, that doesn't change the fact that these are the two best teams in the country. Two most deserving? We can debate Alabama vs Oklahoma State all day. This is the game we get.
I expect a similar game this time around, but someone will make a big play on offense (Trent Richardson?) or special teams (Tyrann Mathieu?). Last time, I gave the edge to Alabama because of three reasons: the offensive playmaker in Richardson, the home crowd, and I liked the game-planning of Nick Saban over the risk-taking of Les Miles.
This time, the crowd will be behind LSU. Make no mistake about it: this is not a neutral site game. Tiger fans will pack the Superdome and all the streets around it. I don't think Les Miles gets enough respect for his game-planning, so the coaching may be a push. I still like Richardson's ability to break a big play, but let's not forget the Honey Badger. Tyrann Mathieu has had game-changing touchdowns in three of LSU's toughest games: punt returns for touchdowns in the Arkansas and Georgia games that shifted all the momentum to the Tigers' favor, and he also forced a fumble and returned it for a touchdown against Oregon. Don't rule out him being the guy who makes the big play to deliver another crystal football to LSU. It should be another low-scoring game, but I can't go against LSU in this setting. LSU will be your national champion. Quite frankly, based on their entire body of work, that's the way it should be.
The pick: LSU 16-10

Thanks for reading my picks blog this season. I guess I need to find something else to write about for a while.