Bowl Picks: Part One

It's bowl season! Time to go to beautiful places like El Paso!

Beef 'O' Brady's
BBVA Compass
GoDaddy.com
Belk
FreeCreditScore.com
Bridgeport Education

Only one of those is NOT attached to the name of a bowl game this year. Nothing says prestige like the 35 bowl games we have now. As much as we kid/complain about the mediocrity of the first dozen or so, the last dozen or so tend to be a lot of fun.

So, to get you ready, here come the first half (give or take a few) of my bowl picks:

Gildan New Mexico Bowl
Temple (-6.5) vs Wyoming
This is the first epic battle to kick off bowl season. Compared to some of the other games, it's not bad. Both teams have eight wins, albeit in non-AQ conferences. While Temple hasn't played many great opponents (Penn State was the only ranked team), Wyoming was beaten convincingly by its tougher opponents (TCU, Boise State, Nebraska). I'll take the Owls and give the points.
The pick: Temple 30-21

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Ohio (+2.5) vs Utah State
There's more MAC excitement at stop two on the 2011-12 bowl tour. Ohio blew a big lead in the MAC Championship Game to end up here. Playing in their first Saturday game since October, I like the Bobcats to get some redemption and pull off a modest upset of the Aggies.
The pick: Ohio 27-24

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
San Diego State (-5) vs Louisiana-Lafayette
The Ragin' Cajuns make a short trip to New Orleans to take on future Big East member San Diego State (there is nothing that sounds right about "East" and "San Diego" together). The Cajuns will have the crowd behind them, but San Diego State is a little more battle-tested. I'll take the Aztecs to win and cover.
The pick: San Diego State 31-24

Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl St. Petersburg
Florida International (-4) vs Marshall
Both the Panthers and Thundering Herd boast a win over Louisville. The other common opponent is Central Florida: a win for FIU and a loss for Marshall. FIU may come from a weaker conference, but I'll pick the Panthers since they are playing in their home state and Marshall looked pretty bad against Conference USA's better teams late in the season.
The pick: Florida International 31-24

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
TCU (-10.5) vs Louisiana Tech

Casey Pachall leads TCU into the Poinsettia Bowl.
Next time we see the Frogs, they'll be a Big 12 team.

TCU had a lot of concerns over its pass defense early in the season after losses to Baylor and SMU. Those may not be completely fixed, but TCU did find a way to defeat Boise State and go unbeaten in the Mountain West. Louisiana Tech is talented and did well enough to win the WAC, but it hasn't seen a team with TCU's talent yet. The Frogs should be able to use its deep stable of running backs and other offensive weapons to get past Tech. I'll take the Frogs and give the points
The pick: TCU 35-21

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl
Arizona State vs Boise State (-14)
Boise State feels disrespected (again) by the BCS, but I have no sympathy for the Broncos. They should have won the Mountain West if they wanted to be in the BCS, and the Mountain West even gift-wrapped the conference for them by moving the TCU game to Boise, where the Broncos weren't able to get it done.
Boise State, though, does have plenty of talent and much more focus than Arizona State. Look for the Broncos to run up the score in Las Vegas.
The pick: Boise State 48-20

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
Nevada vs Southern Miss (-6)
Larry Fedora is sticking around to coach one more game before leaving Southern Miss for North Carolina (If it would get me a free trip to Hawaii, I'd stick around for the bowl game, too). I'll be interested to see how hard the Golden Eagles play for him. Southern Miss has two head-scratching losses (Marshall and UAB), but it still has more talent than Nevada. Southern Miss may have a chip on its shoulder because the Liberty Bowl (normally the destination for the Conference USA champion) passed on inviting USM. I guess Hawaii is a sweet consolation prize. Look for a strong performance from the Golden Eagles.
The pick: Southern Miss 42-28

AdvoCare V100 Independence Bowl
Missouri (-4.5) vs North Carolina
The Big 12 is stronger than the ACC top to bottom, so I'll take a 5-4 Big 12 team over a 3-5 ACC team. Missouri isn't a great squad by any means, but it does have some promising talent, especially with James Franklin at quarterback. Plus, Mizzou did hang around with a lot of the top teams in the Big 12 this year, with the only real blow out being against Oklahoma State. I like Mizzou to take care of North Carolina with relative ease.
The pick: Missouri 31-21

Little Caesars Bowl
Western Michigan vs Purdue (-2.5)
It's a MAC team without any great wins against a Big Ten team without any great wins. Both lost to Michigan by more than 20. Purdue beat Illinois by a touchdown while the Broncos lost to Illinois by a field goal. Sure, edge to Purdue to win, and even cover.
The pick: Purdue 27-23

Belk Bowl
Louisville vs North Carolina State (-2.5)
The Wolfpack finished the season strong by upsetting Clemson and blowing out Maryland to finish at 4-4 in the ACC. Louisville just barely missed out on winning the Big East BCS bid as West Virginia won the tiebreaker with the Cards and Cincy to go to the Orange Bowl. The teams are pretty close, but NC State should have quite a few fans in Charlotte. Yes, that's where the Belk Bowl is played. Just like Vegas, I'll give a slight edge to the Wolfpack.
The pick: NC State 30-27

Military Bowl
Toledo (-3) vs Air Force
Can you really beat Air Force in the Military Bowl? I would say yes if you're Toledo. The Rockets score a lot of points, and only a three-point loss to Northern Illinois prevented them from going to the conference title game. I'll value 7-1 in the MAC over 3-4 in the Mountain West. I like Toledo relatively big.
The pick: Toledo 45-28

Bridgeport Education Holiday Bowl
California vs Texas (-3)

Look for the Texas defense to lead the 'Horns to a bowl win.

Both of these teams enter with 7-5 records overall and 4-5 in their respective conferences. Both took their beatings from teams at the top (Stanford, Oregon, USC, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, etc) and both got their wins over the conference bottom feeders. While the Longhorns' quarterback situation is pretty lousy, there is no denying their defense is outstanding. That will be the difference in the Holiday Bowl.
The pick: Texas 20-13

Champs Sports Bowl
Notre Dame (+3) vs Florida State
Once upon a time, Florida State was ranked in the top five. While Seminoles' offense did not turn out to be as great as some thought, the defense lived up the the hype. I think that spells trouble for the Irish, who failed to reach 20 points against Stanford and USC (who have pretty good defenses, but not as elite as Florida State's). The question is whether or not Florida State can muster enough offense to win the game. I think the game will be close, but Florida State will get just enough to win.
The pick: Florida State 21-20

Valero Alamo Bowl
Washington vs Baylor (-9)
It could be the farewell performance for Heisman winner Robert Griffin. Washington had pretty bad days against other Heisman contenders Andrew Luck and Matt Barkley. Plus, Baylor has some nice wins (Oklahoma, TCU, and Texas) while Washington really doesn't. Look for Griffin to light up the scoreboard before making a decision about the NFL.
The pick: Baylor 48-21

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
Tulsa (+2.5) vs BYU
From the "slightly interesting but mostly worthless information" department: both of these teams defeated Central Florida 24-17. Overall, Tulsa's schedule seems more challenging. BYU's first season of independence came at a cost: the overall schedule was pretty average (two games against teams from Idaho, neither of which was Boise State). Tulsa's season ended in disappointment with the blowout loss to Houston, but overall TU improved a lot throughout Conference USA play. I think TU can score on this BYU team and will leave the Metroplex with a nice win to end the season.
The pick: Tulsa 34-28

New Era Pinstripe Bowl
Rutgers vs Iowa State (+1.5)
While the match-ups in this bowl game tend to be lousy, the Pinstripe Bowl is one of the new bowls that I think is kind of cool. I just think the idea of playing in Yankee Stadium is fun. Then again, I'm not the one out there freezing in New York in December. While Rutgers should have the hometown crowd, I was impressed with the fight Iowa State showed late in the season. I'll take the Cyclones to grind out an ugly win.
The pick: Iowa State 23-20

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
Mississippi State (-7) vs Wake Forest
Another shining example of the greatness that is bowl season: a pair of 6-6 teams doing battle in Nashville. As if picking SEC over ACC wasn't reason enough, Wake Forest's season finale convinced me which way to go. Wake lost 41-7 to Vanderbilt, a team that went 6-6 overall and 2-6 in the SEC, just like Mississippi State. Bulldogs roll.
The pick: Mississippi State 35-17 

Insight Bowl
Iowa vs Oklahoma (-14)

Bob Stoops meets his alma mater in the Insight Bowl.

Oklahoma certainly hoped to be playing in the Phoenix area for a bowl game, just not in the Insight Bowl. The preseason Big 12 favorite struggled through injuries and some issues in the defensive secondary to end up here against Bob Stoops' alma mater. The Sooners have way more talent, but my concern is how much they will care about this game. I base my pick off what I saw in the Sun Bowl a couple years ago. The Sooners didn't have much to play for that day either, but they blew Stanford out of the water and used it as a stepping stone for a Big 12 championship season in 2010. Look for a strong effort from the Sooners.
The pick: Oklahoma 38-21

Meineke Car Care Bowl
Texas A&M vs Northwestern (+10)
I'm tempted to just pick this game to go the way almost every important Texas A&M game has gone this year: Aggies lead at the half, collapse late and lose. I think this game will go something like that, but there is too much talent on the A&M sideline to lose to Northwestern. It may be ugly, but the Aggies will escape.
The pick: Texas A&M 30-24 

Hyundai Sun Bowl
Georgia Tech (-3.5) vs Utah
The one thing I can't get past: Utah finished behind UCLA in that lousy Pac-12 South division. Give me Georgia Tech's option attack to run past the Utes in El Paso.
The pick: Georgia Tech 38-27

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Cincinnati (+2.5) vs Vanderbilt
The line is an indication of how much Vegas respects the SEC: Vandy went 6-6 overall and 2-6 in the SEC while Cincinnati went 9-3 overall and 5-2 in the weak Big East. While there's no doubt the SEC and Big East are the yin and the yang of BCS conferences, Vanderbilt may be getting a little too much credit for being an SEC team and Cincinnati may not be getting enough credit. The Bearcats will be out to prove something, and I'll pick them for a slight upset.
The pick: Cincinnati 27-24

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Illinois vs UCLA (+2.5)
Barf. The award for worst bowl game goes right here. The combined record of these teams is 12-13. Both have fired their coaches. One of these "bowl teams" will finish the season with a losing record. Illinois began the season 6-0 before finishing 6-6. UCLA at least showed some fight against Oregon. Illinois is in free fall and really can't score. Give me the Bruins for the "upset" win to finish the season at 7-7. Barf again.
The pick: UCLA 24-23

Chick-Fil-A Bowl
Virginia vs Auburn (-1.5)
A year after being national champs, Auburn ends its 2011 campaign in Atlanta. Considering the number of NFL draft picks the Tigers lost from last season, it wasn't a bad season. Playing in SEC country should serve War Eagle well. Even though Michael Dyer has been suspended, Auburn should have enough defensively to end the season on a high note.
The pick: Auburn 20-17

That's it for the first part of my bowl picks. I'll pick the rest of the games closer to New Year's Day.

Oh, and FreeCreditScore.com. That was the only one at the top that's not tied to a bowl game... yet.