College Football Picks: Week 14

Last week was pretty good for picking winners (8-3), but not so much against the spread (4-7). Rivalry week is gone, though, and now it's on to championship week.

The tough part about picking championship week: there is almost always one big upset, one that throws a wrench into the BCS picture that we think we all have figured out. Picking championship week without picking an upset is almost like filling out an NCAA tournament bracket without picking a 12 to beat a 5. I feel like there might be an upset, but I'm just not sure where that upset will be. I might have to go conservative and pick favorites, but we'll see.

Pac-12 Championship (Friday)
UCLA at #9 Oregon (-31.5)

The first Pac-12 Championship Game features Oregon and...
 a 6-6 UCLA team with a lame duck coach. Hooray?

A 31.5-point spread in a conference championship game seems ridiculous. Based on what we've seen from UCLA this year, though, it might not be. UCLA lucked into the Pac-12 South title thanks to USC being on probation and ineligible for postseason play. I can't remember a team playing in the conference championship game with a coach who had been fired, but that will be the case for UCLA and Rick Neuheisel on Friday.
The Ducks are way too powerful, and they're at home. Giving UCLA almost 32 points seems risky, but I can't ignore the wide gaps in talent and results between these two squads.
The pick: Oregon 45-9

MAC Championship (Friday)
MAC: Ohio vs Northern Illinois (-4)
These teams aren't used to playing this late in the week. These teams combined to play exactly zero Saturday games in November. Northern Illinois played three Tuesday games and a Friday game while Ohio played four midweek games in the past month. That's life in the MAC. Northern Illinois scores nearly 40 points a game and rushes for over 255 yards per game (eighth in the country). I'll take the Huskies.
The pick: Northern Illinois 48-42

SEC Championship
#1 LSU (-13) vs #14 Georgia
I've made my opinion about LSU pretty clear, and my thoughts really aren't much different than most others. LSU is far and away the best team in the country. Even if the Tigers lose this game to Georgia, this team would still have the most impressive body of work and deserves to be in the BCS title game.
I tip my cap to Georgia head coach Mark Richt, who answered his critics and won out after many fans were calling for his head after an 0-2 start. I don't mean to take anything away from what Georgia did, but this next comment is hard to dispute: Georgia had a pretty light schedule by SEC standards. Georgia did not play LSU, Alabama, or Arkansas. Georgia got Auburn at home and (as always) Florida on a neutral field. The toughest SEC game on Georgia's schedule was #12 South Carolina at home, a 45-42 loss. Quite frankly, Georgia's best win might be the road win at Georgia Tech last week.
Georgia is a good team that will certainly deserve a trip to the Cotton Bowl or Capital One Bowl. However, the Bulldogs have not done anything like LSU has. The Tigers are on another level. Georgia may hang around for a while in Atlanta, but I think LSU pulls away and wins comfortably in the end.
The pick: LSU 38-24

Settling the Big East
#23 West Virginia (-1) at South Florida (Thursday)
Once upon a time, South Florida got an impressive win at Notre Dame and looked like a legit Big East contender. Now, the Bulls are 1-5 in the Big East and need this win just to get bowl eligible. The Big East will come down to Louisville, West Virginia, and Cincinnati. West Virginia needs to win this game and hope Cincinnati wins to force a three-way tie, which would be settled by BCS standings. Since West Virginia is the only Big East team ranked in the BCS, the Mountaineers would very likely get the Big East BCS bid if it came down to a three-way tie.
I have to take the Mountaineers against this free-falling South Florida team. While the Mountaineers' offense hasn't turned out to be as explosive as Dana Holgorsen might have hoped, it should be enough this week.
The pick: West Virginia 28-24

Settling the Big East, Part 2
Connecticut (+10) at Cincinnati
Cincinnati needs a win and a West Virginia loss to win the Big East's BCS bid. That would result in a tie with Louisville, and Cincinnati won the head-to-head with Louisville. The Cards are pulling for a Cincinnati loss, because that would mean Louisville goes to the BCS thanks to a head-to-head win over West Virginia.
There has to be some drama this week, and I'll pick this game for that. Connecticut will keep it close and make Big East football fans sweat, but Cincinnati will pull it out.
The pick: Cincinnati 23-21

ACC Championship
#5 Virginia Tech (-7.5) vs #20 Clemson
Speaking of teams in free fall, I am off the Clemson bandwagon. Done. Finished. The Tigers can't score anymore, and they can't stop anyone either. Virginia Tech does not belong in the BCS title conversation, but the Hokies are playing very well and do deserve the ACC title. I'll take Frank Beamer's guys in a rout.
The pick: Virginia Tech 35-14

Big Ten Championship
#13 Michigan State (+9.5) vs #15 Wisconsin

Montee Ball will make one last Heisman case to help
Wisconsin avenge the loss to Michigan State.

The Badgers attempt to avenge the heartbreaking loss that derailed their national title hopes back in October. The Spartans stunned Bucky with arguably the most memorable play from this season. Michigan State has a tough defense, and I expect another fight from Sparty. Wisconsin, though, has a Heisman contender it can lean on. Two months ago, that Heisman contender would have been Russell Wilson. He's still a tough customer, but Montee Ball has emerged as the Wisconsin leader. The junior has 34 touchdowns, nine more than anyone else (Kansas State's Collin Klein is second with 25). I'll take Wisconsin and Ball to grind out a tough win and secure a Rose Bowl berth.
The pick: Wisconsin 30-27

Conference USA Championship
#24 Southern Miss vs #6 Houston (-13)
Biggest Southern Miss fans in America: TCU. If Houston loses, TCU has a slight chance to leap to 16 in the BCS and steal a bid (the #18 Frogs could jump the Big Ten loser and maybe Georgia or Baylor to get to 16. That would make TCU the highest-ranked non-AQ conference champion, ahead of the Big East champ, and therefore into the BCS). However, I wouldn't encourage TCU fans to get their hopes up.
Houston truly proved itself last week in Tulsa. The Cougars blew out a confident, talented Tulsa team, and I expect more of the same in Houston this week. Houston's offense is explosive, and the defense is better than I thought it would be. Case Keenum will make one more Heisman statement as Houston cruises its way to a BCS bid.
The pick: Houston 56-24
  
State championship?
#22 Texas at #17 Baylor (-2.5)
Texas won't be winning a conference title this year, but the Longhorns can at least win state. A win over Baylor would give Texas a clean sweep over in-state rivals Texas Tech, Texas A&M, and the Bears (and Rice, if you want to pile it on).
Unfortunately for Texas, Baylor has an explosive offense led by one of the most exciting players in the country. Baylor also doesn't collapse in the second half like the Aggies tend to do. Robert Griffin will be looking to make his last Heisman statement before heading to New York, where he should at least be a finalist for the award. I think the 'Horns' defense is great and should slow him down a bit. I still don't have much faith in that banged up Texas offense, though. I'll take Griffin to score just enough to win and cover.
The pick: Baylor 28-24

Bedlam
#10 Oklahoma (+3.5) at #3 Oklahoma State

Cowboys and Sooners for the Big 12 title. Should be a dandy.

I saved the best for last (insert Vanessa Williams joke here).
This the game folks in Oklahoma have been anticipating since the season began. While it fell short of being the national semifinal that some had hoped it would be, it will still decide the Big 12 title, making it arguably the most anticipated Bedlam game ever.
Considering the history of this rivalry (the Sooners have an absurd 82-16-7 advantage), it seems crazy that OU is an underdog. It's about this year, though, and this year, OSU certainly looks strong. The offense has been clicking from day one, and the defense has been tough and opportunistic.
The Sooners, though, still own this rivalry and are a legitimate threat to end Oklahoma State's dreams of capturing a Big 12 title and a BCS bid. OU has a strong front seven defensively, but the secondary has been questioned all year. That plays into Oklahoma State's strength of passing the ball all over the field. The Sooners are a little banged up, too, but they won't use that as an excuse. OU fully expects to go into Stillwater and win with a tough, aggressive defense. However, I think the Cowboys are sound enough on offense to finally get that breakthrough win. It should be a great one, but I give the edge to the Pokes.
The pick: Oklahoma State 31-28

There may not be much drama as it relates to the BCS national championship, but then again, maybe there will be. See you next time for the bowl picks.