College Football Picks: Week 13

The good news last week was that I went 7-3 picking winners and 5-4 against the spread. I bet you can guess two of the games I missed, though. I was way off on Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. Then again, so was everyone else. Still, those games put a huge damper on what could have been (and still might be) the most anticipated Bedlam game ever. It's just part of the annual November shock that tends to happen every year in college football. It reminds us once again to stop speculating in mid-October that we'll have five or six unbeaten teams. In the end, we rarely have more than two.

No sense cursing over last week's mistakes though. It's rivalry weekend, and I love my rivalry games. There were so many intriguing match-ups, it was tough trimming this week's blog down to just ten games. So, I went to eleven.

The locals
#8 Houston at Tulsa (+3) (Friday)

G.J. Kinne and the Hurricane are out to not only bust
Houston's BCS dreams, but also win a conference title.

I said a few weeks ago that this game could have an impact on the BCS, and here we are. Houston has made its way into the top ten, and Tulsa has a shot to play spoiler. Not only that, Tulsa has an outside shot at getting into the BCS itself. (A lot has to happen there, though: including TCU losing to UNLV, Tulsa going on to win the conference, and a handful of other top 25 teams dropping, but that's a topic for next week.)
The winner of this game not only wins the Conference USA West division, but will also host the C-USA Championship next week. I think Bobby Lewis said it best about these two teams: they are about the same. Trade schedules, and Tulsa is unbeaten and ranked way too high in the BCS while Houston would be 8-3 and underrated. Both are scoring a lot of points. Both are unbeaten (and rarely challenged) in Conference USA. Tulsa is the home 'dog, so I have to like the Hurricane. Houston may have the higher profile quarterback, but G.J. Kinne just has so many weapons at his disposal. That includes the dynamic combination of Trey Watts and Ja'Terian Douglas in the backfield. Those two impress me more every week. Look for a lot of points, but maybe just a bit more on the Tulsa side.
The pick: Tulsa 48-45

Iowa State (+28) at #9 Oklahoma
The Sooners have to be hurting after their first ever loss to Baylor. Considering what happened in Waco and in Ames last week, that 28-point line seems ridiculously high. Although, a 30-point win by Oklahoma in Norman certainly wouldn't shock me. I'm sure Bob Stoops had quite a pep talk for his guys after last week's embarrassment. The defensive secondary is a big concern for the Sooners, but I don't see Jared Barnett torching the Sooners the way Robert Griffin did. OU should certainly bounce back at home, but 28 points is just too high for me, especially when you consider the injuries they are dealing with. Plus, once the win is secured, I'm sure Bob Stoops will pull all of his top players to make sure OU is as healthy as possible heading into Bedlam, where the Big 12 title and a trip to the Fiesta Bowl will be on the line (and maybe the national championship for Oklahoma State). OU wins comfortably, but Iowa State covers.
The pick: Oklahoma 49-24 

Turkey with a side of bitter hatred
#25 Texas at Texas A&M (-8) (Thursday)
After your Thanksgiving dinner, watch the Aggies and Longhorns meet for what will unfortunately be the last time in the foreseeable future. It's a shame that one school's obsession with a TV network and another school's obsession with getting out of the other's shadow has led to this, but that's the way it is. While Texas A&M does have a knack for blowing second half leads this season, Texas has a knack for bad offensive play all game long. The Aggies should be able to score plenty, and I'm not sure Texas will. The Aggies get the last laugh. Win and cover. Here's to hoping that somewhere down the road, these two put their egos aside and play each other again in all sports.
The pick: Texas A&M 31-21

We knew them when
Pittsburgh (+7) at West Virginia (Friday)
Former TU head coach Todd Graham and former OSU offensive coordinator Dana Holgorsen meet in the Backyard Brawl. These two hate each other going back to Holgorsen's days at Houston, when he accused Graham's Golden Hurricane players of faking injuries to slow down Houston's fast-paced offense. Naturally, Graham took offense to that.
The Mountaineers' offense hasn't been quite as high-powered as Holgorsen might have hoped, but I think it will be enough to beat Pitt in Morgantown. The Panthers will play well enough to keep it close, and hopefully they don't have to fake any injuries to do so.
The pick: West Virginia 24-20

The big one
#3 Arkansas (+13) at #1 LSU (Friday)

There's a lot more on the line than this boot in Baton Rouge.

This is the game that has BCS officials holding their breath. They certainly want one undefeated, unquestionably deserving team in the national championship game. If Arkansas wins, there is total chaos with several teams all legitimately laying claim to those two BCS title game spots. An Arkansas win not only means LSU is no longer a lock for the BCS title game, but the SEC West would suddenly be in doubt, as a three-way tie between these two and Alabama (assuming the Tide wins the Iron Bowl) would come down to a BCS tiebreaker. I'm not sure what is more foolish: picking against LSU or picking against the inevitability that is BCS chaos.
Arkansas is great and certainly worthy of a BCS slot, but I have to look at its game against Alabama to determine how it will fare in Baton Rouge. The Hogs couldn't run the ball (but who can against Alabama?), and gave up big plays on defense and special teams that allowed Alabama to pull away for a 38-14 rout. However, Arkansas was still trying to figure out how to replace the injured Knile Davis, who broke his ankle in the preseason. The offense is really clicking now on the strength of Tyler Wilson's arm. Plus, Davis has actually been practicing for three weeks. I doubt he plays, but don't be shocked if he makes an appearance.
That doesn't change the fact that LSU still has an elite defense and plenty of skill on offense. LSU is a special team that has answered every challenge this season. The Tigers have held opponents to 11 points or fewer in nine of their eleven games. Arkansas is talented enough to keep it close, but I just can't go against this Tiger team in Baton Rouge. LSU fans will be singing "Hey, Fighting Tigers" all the way to Atlanta.
The pick: LSU 30-21

The Iron Bowl
#2 Alabama at #24 Auburn (+21)
Roll Tide. War Eagle. It's one of the best rivalries in sports, and it's hard for those of us outside of the state of Alabama to fully understand. The Crimson Tide has an elephant on its sideline, and Tiger fans yell "War Eagle." Whatever. It's almost always a great game, which is why I have to take those 21 points when picking the spread.
Auburn, unfortunately, could use those 21 points in the actual game. Alabama's defense is fantastic. How it gave up 21 points to Georgia Southern last week can only be explained by saying "they didn't care," and maybe that's true. They care this week. Keep in mind that second-ranked Alabama could almost lock itself into the national championship game with a win, and it might even win the SEC West if Arkansas beats LSU. That would create a three-way tie in the SEC West that would be settled by the BCS. So, anything could happen there. As for this game, Alabama should shut Auburn down and score enough to win, but not to cover.
The pick: Alabama 24-6

Fool me once...
#22 Notre Dame at #6 Stanford (-6.5)

Look for Stanford to make one last BCS statement against ND.

After Notre Dame's performance against USC, I told myself I would not be fooled by Notre Dame over the following four games. I would not let myself be convinced that an 8-3 Notre Dame team has figured it out, won't turn the ball over and can beat Stanford.
Thankfully, I haven't forgotten the USC game and how Notre Dame has fared against really talented teams. That 16-14 win over Boston College certainly didn't prove anything. Stanford is one of the best teams in the country. Notre Dame, quite simply, is not. Stanford will not only win, but the Cardinal might try to blow out the Irish to get some BCS style points.
The pick: Stanford 45-24

Wait until Urban gets here
Ohio State at #15 Michigan (-7.5)
It's another one of the great rivalries in sports. Unfortunately, Ohio State is rebuilding. The Buckeyes might get a big win off the field if/when Urban Meyer becomes their new head coach. On the field, Denard Robinson should lead Michigan to plenty of points at home to cover.
The pick: Michigan 30-17

Follow the Leader
#19 Penn State at #16 Wisconsin (-14.5)
Pretty simple here: the winner takes the Big Ten Leaders division. As uninspiring as Wisconsin has been on the road, Wisconsin has been close to unstoppable at home. Penn State's defense is tough, but the Badgers' offense is tougher. Wisconsin should win this game with ease.
The pick: Wisconsin 40-21

What happened?
 #17 Clemson (+4) at #12 South Carolina
Once upon a time, Clemson's offense looked unstoppable. It now seems quite stoppable for some reason. A 37-13 loss to NC State when the Tigers still had an outside shot at the BCS title game? Awful. Once a big buyer on Clemson, I'm not so sure anymore. I'm also not sure what to think about South Carolina. The last team to beat Georgia, South Carolina barely got past Tennessee, Florida and Mississippi State. I will reluctantly say Clemson's offense has a revival against the hated Gamecocks.
The pick: Clemson 31-28

Clean, old fashioned hate
#13 Georgia at #23 Georgia Tech (+6)
It's a rivalry my family knows very well. Georgia could easily get caught looking ahead because the Bulldogs know they play one of the top teams in the country next week in the SEC Championship. Georgia Tech's option attack can be frustrating and will keep the game close, but I'll take the Dawgs to pull this one out before attempting to bust the BCS next week.
The pick: Georgia 28-24

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.