College Football Picks: Week 12

It wasn't a bad week in Week 11: 7-3 picking winners, 5-5 vs the spread. After some great games that really shook up the BCS picture last week, Week 12 lacks any really great games (which is probably why College GameDay is at SMU vs. Houston. Yuck). So, (jinx alert) while I feel pretty good about picking winners, the spread is where the real challenge lies this week. So, if the spread doesn't add any excitement to these picks, maybe a bunch of random video links will.

The locals
#2 Oklahoma State (-26.5) at Iowa State (Friday)

Brandon Weeden should not only be in the Heisman
discussion, I think he could be the front-runner.

The Cowboys can see their goals. They are so close to the finish line, but they still have to get there. The Big 12 title and a BCS championship game berth are right there on the horizon. Only two games remain: the most anticipated Bedlam game ever... and this lousy Friday trip to Ames. None of the other Big 12 bottom feeders (Kansas, Texas Tech, Baylor) have challenged OSU. There's no reason to believe Iowa State will. There is no real intimidating home field advantage there. OSU has been in a zone lately where it seems that it can't do anything wrong. Cowboys win and cover. Bring on Bedlam.
The pick: Oklahoma State 56-20

#5 Oklahoma (-15.5) at #22 Baylor
When you look at the bottom of the Top 25, there are a lot of mediocre teams down there with three or four losses. Baylor is one of them. A few weeks ago, I might have thought Baylor was a real trap game for OU. It still might be, but Baylor's overtime win over Kansas did nothing for its credibility. The Sooners are dealing with injuries, but not enough for them to be too concerned about a trip to Waco. Landry Jones is still playing, and there's plenty of talent on the depth chart to make the Sooners confident about Baylor. Then again, have they ever not been confident about Baylor?
The pick: Oklahoma 49-27

Tulsa (-13.5) at UTEP
Back to the topic of teams with their goals in sight, Tulsa knows that its game with Houston in two weeks will decide the Conference USA West division no matter what happens this week. That's no reason to fall asleep, though. TU still needs to win this game if it potentially wants to host the C-USA title game should the Hurricane make it there. Tulsa looks stronger every week. El Paso is always a tricky place to play, but I'd be stunned if Tulsa collapsed a week before the Houston game. Although UTEP did only lose to Houston by a touchdown, TU is playing so well right now. Tulsa gets it done and even covers on the road.
The pick: Tulsa 40-24

Meanwhile, across the state line...
Mississippi State (+13) at #6 Arkansas

Don't rule Arkansas out of the BCS or the national championship.

We're all excited about our teams in the state of Oklahoma, but let us not forget about our neighbors to the east. Do not rule Arkansas out of the national championship game. Seriously. I'm not saying they're the best team in the country. Like many, I think they're the third best team in the SEC West. However, imagine this scenario: Arkansas beats LSU and crushes Georgia in the SEC title game, OSU wins Bedlam, and Auburn upsets Alabama. Couldn't the national title game be OSU and Arkansas? Or take it a step further: OU gets upset by Baylor and then beats OSU. Arkansas could meet Oregon for everything, right? Maybe, but that's getting way ahead of ourselves.
Arkansas still needs to beat Mississippi State first. Remember when we thought the Bulldogs were poised to make a run and contend in the SEC? That didn't quite happen. The Bulldogs have only one win in the conference, but they really don't get blown out. They hang tough but just can't score enough (19-6 loss to LSU, 24-7 to Alabama, 24-10 to Georgia). Don't be surprised if Mississippi State hangs around and makes Arkansas sweat a little. The Hogs won't fall at home though.
The pick: Arkansas 24-14

Seriously?
#13 Kansas State (+9.5) at #23 Texas
This is the most confusing line of the week. Texas isn't that strong to begin with. Now, the Longhorns have lost Fozzy Whittaker for the season and their top two freshman backs are also dinged up. Kansas State may not be loaded with four and five-star prospects like Texas, but it is loaded up with well-coached players who are finding a way to win every week. Kansas State +9.5 points is a spread that seems too good to be true, so I'm definitely taking that one. Could Texas play well enough at home to knock off an overachieving K-State team? Maybe. However, Kansas State is not only healthier, but simply playing much better football right now. Give me the Wildcats for not only the cover, but the win as well.
The pick: Kansas State 36-30

I am Legend
#16 Nebraska at #18 Michigan (-3)
There's a three-way tie atop the Big Ten Legends division between these two and Michigan State. So, this is obviously a very important game in that race. Big Ten teams have been up and down all year, and both of these teams know that. As inconsistent as Michigan quarterback Denard Robinson can be, I'll take him over Taylor Martinez. With that in mind, I'll take the Wolverines at home.
The pick: Michigan 28-24

If it's good enough for GameDay...
SMU at #11 Houston (-19.5)

Wild guess: Corso will rock this mascot head Saturday.

Yes, this is where ESPN will be on Saturday. I'd be shocked if Lee Corso put on anything other than a Cougar head. Like I referenced earlier, Houston is on a collision course with Tulsa. I can't see Case Keenum falling in what is finally his senior day (this is the 23-year old's sixth year on campus). Houston will do what Houston does: throw it a lot, score a lot, and win.
The pick: Houston 56-27


The Fightin' Catholics
Boston College (+24.5) at Notre Dame
I've gotten requests from certain people to pick Notre Dame every week. So, here goes (there are no other games I really want to pick anyway). The Irish sure are good at blowing out bad teams. They are getting a lot points here at home. BC, though, always gives Notre Dame headaches. The Eagles are really down this year (3-7), but this is a rivalry game. Notre Dame should win fairly comfortably, but I think 24.5 is a big number.
The pick: Notre Dame 38-21

Duel in the Desert
Arizona at Arizona State (-10.5)
I liked Arizona State earlier this year. Not so much now. Once thought to be the front-runners in the Pac-12 South (remember: USC is ineligible for postseason play), now the Sun Devils have lost to UCLA and Washington State. Ouch.
Luckily for them, Arizona is much worse. Win and cover for ASU.
The pick: Arizona State 33-21

Down a level, up in drama
Liberty at Stony Brook (No Line)
Finally, some drama! We have to go to the FCS to find some this week. It's the regular season finale in the Big South, and both these teams are 5-0. The winner gets the conference crown. Flames and Seawolves. That's right. Those are their mascots. Stony Brook has scored at least 42 points in every conference game, and that includes 76 put up in last week's rout of Gardner-Webb. Liberty's had some high-scoring contests as well (63 against Coastal Carolina), but it averages 40 points per game in conference. Stony Brook is averaging 50.4. I'll take the Seawolves.
The pick: Stony Brook 50-40

And, hey, if these games don't do anything for you, remember that college basketball has started. So, we have that going for us, which is nice.