I'm thankful for rivalries... oh, and family and stuff, too. I'm also thankful for going 6-3-1 against the spread last week. Not so thankful for the 4-6 on winners.
But late November football is about rivalries and teams ruining their hated rivals' championship hopes. That makes this week fun to pick.
Texas Tech at Texas (-4) (Thursday)
After a 7-0 start, Texas Tech has stumbled with four straight losses. Texas has had a week off, but the Longhorns are still going to be without RB Jonathan Gray and DT Chris Whaley. Even with a banged up Longhorn team, Tech's defense concerns me. Case McCoy gives Mack Brown a win in what may be his last game at Darrell K Royal.
The pick: Texas 35-30
#3 Ohio State (-12.5) at Michigan
The only reason to pick Michigan in this game is the "it's a rivalry and anything can happen" philosophy. Ohio State is more talented at every position and has everything to play for. Given the chance, the Buckeyes will run up the score to try to steal a few votes from Florida State. Although, I think that battle is futile at this point. Alabama or Florida State has to lose for Ohio State to play for a title. They'll do their best to humiliate Michigan this week.
The pick: Ohio State 45-17
#24 Duke (+6) at North Carolina
The legendary rivalry means a lot on the football field this year instead of just the basketball court. A RANKED Duke team can clinch a berth in the ACC Championship Game here. And the Dukies are a touchdown underdog? Heck no. Give me the Fightin' Cutcliffes for the big road win.
The pick: Duke 31-28
Georgia (-3) at Georgia Tech
What a bummer for Georgia to lose Aaron Murray to an ACL injury, but I guess that falls right in line with the rest of their season. It'll be up to Hutson Mason to defeat the Ramblin' Wreck in this annual grudge match. Pro tip, Hutson: give it to Todd Gurley. A lot.
The pick: Georgia 28-24
#21 Texas A&M at #5 Missouri (-4.5)
I put too much faith in Johnny Football and his Aggies last week. I won't make the mistake this week. He may be spectacular against Missouri, but A&M's defense will not stop Mizzou enough. With James Franklin back, Missouri will be just fine at home and (I can't believe I'm saying this) clinch the SEC East.
The pick: Missouri 49-42
#1 Alabama at #4 Auburn (+10.5)
Perhaps the most meaningful Iron Bowl Ever? The winner goes to the SEC Championship with BCS title dreams. It would be very interesting to see how how Auburn would climb with a win. Over Ohio State? Over Florida State?? We'll see.
Or maybe we won't. Alabama is due to be challenged, and the Tide will be. I fully expect A.J. McCarron and Nick Saban to come through though. They always do.
The pick: Alabama 27-24
#9 Baylor (-13) at TCU
I expect Baylor to come out flat after getting their souls crushed in Stillwater last week. However, over the course of 60 minutes, I fully expect Baylor to pull away from TCU. Expect it to be ugly at half, but comfortable for Baylor by day's end.
The pick: Baylor 44-20
#6 Clemson (+5) at #10 South Carolina
It's a great rivalry game, and both teams have their eyes on the BCS. Clemson has a good chance to be in with a win while South Carolina needs a Missouri loss to get to the SEC Championship Game. I'll take the points on Clemson in this one. Winning on the road will be tough, but I still think Clemson's offense should be able to escape with a W.
The pick: Clemson 35-31
#22 UCLA at #23 USC (-3.5)
While I've been on the UCLA bandwagon all year, I'm jumping off this week. That's mainly because I've learned to stay away from teams that don't have much to play for. UCLA blew its opportunity to win the Pac-12 South last week. USC, on the other hand, is surging. Could this be the win that convinces the USC brass to keep Ed Orgeron in charge?
The pick: USC 35-30
#25 Notre Dame at #8 Stanford (-14)
The only hope Notre Dame has is if Stanford takes the week off mentally because this game really means nothing to the Cardinal. They have clinched the Pac-12 North and have zero hope of getting into the national championship game with two losses. I don't think Stanford will play so casually, however, that they'll let Notre Dame sneak up on them. Stanford is much better and should coast.
The pick: Stanford 42-20
Tuesday, November 26, 2013
Tuesday, November 19, 2013
College Football Picks: Week 13
It was another strong week: 8-2 on winners and 7-3 against the spread. Of course, one of my losers was what I thought was the lock of the week. Good job, Jayhawks. It was the second most impressive thing I saw last week.
On to this week...
Northern Illinois (-2.5) at Toledo (Wednesday)
Love 'em or hate 'em, Northern Illinois has plenty of talent to keep charging through the MAC and get into the BCS. They'll take care of business in Toledo.
The pick: Northern Illinois 40-30
Pitt at Syracuse (+1)
The only thing I can say about this matchup is it makes me miss the old Big East... the basketball version. Forget football.
Two 5-5 teams scrapping to get into a bowl game here. I'll take the team with the better running game.
The pick: Syracuse 31-28
Michigan State (-7.5) at Northwestern
Poor Northwestern. The slide continues as they lost the Free Fall Bowl to Michigan last week. It won't get any better against the top defense in the Big Ten.
The pick: Michigan State 30-10
#17 Arizona State at #14 UCLA (+2.5)
I'm stunned to see UCLA a home 'dog. Yes, Arizona State could clinch the Pac-12 South with a win, but don't forget UCLA's two losses were to Oregon and Stanford. The Sun Devils were spared a date with the Ducks. UCLA will outgun ASU at home, setting up a showdown with resurgent rival USC for the Pac-12 South next week
The pick: UCLA 35-33
#12 Texas A&M (+4) at #22 LSU
Johnny Football needs a few big moments to remind Heisman voters that he's the guy this year. His best game came in a losing effort to Alabama. A&M's defense will give up plenty of points, but I predict Manziel will pull out a dramatic win to secure a few more Heisman votes.
The pick: Texas A&M 51-49
BYU at Notre Dame (+1)
The Irish were embarrassed last time out in a loss to Pitt - maybe only the school's second most embarrassing loss this month, though. They've had two weeks to figure things out. I'll give them the edge because they're at home and the defense should get a few guys back. Like most Irish wins this year, though, it won't be pretty.
The pick: Notre Dame 23-20
#4 Baylor at #10 Oklahoma State (+10)
Yes, Baylor is surging. Ten points, though, is a lot to give on the road, especially in Stillwater. Even RG3 played poorly against the Pokes. Baylor's ridiculous offense should put enough points on the board to stay unbeaten, but it's not going to be easy against an OSU team that has been just as hot as they have.
The pick: Baylor 49-45
SMU (-4) at South Florida
Under-the-radar story in college football the last month or so: Garrett Gilbert putting it together. In his last five games: 17 touchdowns, 1 pick, averaging 420 yards per game. Say what you want about the competition, the Gilbert of years past struggled against most opponents. He's at least earned himself a chance to work out for NFL teams.
I think he'll close this season strong and maybe even get SMU into a bowl game. It starts with a comfortable win over USF.
The pick: SMU 35-20
#8 Missouri at #24 Ole Miss (+3)
Missouri gets James Franklin back this week, which is obviously huge. The Rebels' three losses have all come to teams currently in the BCS top 12. Their recruiting class was much-heralded coming in, and it may be time for the young rebels to get a signature win in their debut season.
The pick: Ole Miss 33-30
#20 Oklahoma (+3.5) at Kansas State
In typical Bill Snyder fashion, Kansas State has been quietly solid. The Wildcats have played top Big 12 contenders Baylor, Oklahoma State and Texas as tough as anyone. They crushed Texas Tech and got by everyone else in the league.
Then there are the inconsistent Sooners. Talented (I think), but inconsistent. Because the game is in Manhattan, I'll go with the well-coached Fightin' Snyders in a close one.
The pick: Kansas State 30-27
On to this week...
Northern Illinois (-2.5) at Toledo (Wednesday)
 |
| Like it or not, Jordan Lynch and Northern Illinois are closing in on another BCS berth. |
The pick: Northern Illinois 40-30
Pitt at Syracuse (+1)
The only thing I can say about this matchup is it makes me miss the old Big East... the basketball version. Forget football.
Two 5-5 teams scrapping to get into a bowl game here. I'll take the team with the better running game.
The pick: Syracuse 31-28
Michigan State (-7.5) at Northwestern
Poor Northwestern. The slide continues as they lost the Free Fall Bowl to Michigan last week. It won't get any better against the top defense in the Big Ten.
The pick: Michigan State 30-10
#17 Arizona State at #14 UCLA (+2.5)
I'm stunned to see UCLA a home 'dog. Yes, Arizona State could clinch the Pac-12 South with a win, but don't forget UCLA's two losses were to Oregon and Stanford. The Sun Devils were spared a date with the Ducks. UCLA will outgun ASU at home, setting up a showdown with resurgent rival USC for the Pac-12 South next week
The pick: UCLA 35-33
#12 Texas A&M (+4) at #22 LSU
 |
| Manziel will remind you why he's the Heisman favorite. |
The pick: Texas A&M 51-49
BYU at Notre Dame (+1)
The Irish were embarrassed last time out in a loss to Pitt - maybe only the school's second most embarrassing loss this month, though. They've had two weeks to figure things out. I'll give them the edge because they're at home and the defense should get a few guys back. Like most Irish wins this year, though, it won't be pretty.
The pick: Notre Dame 23-20
#4 Baylor at #10 Oklahoma State (+10)
Yes, Baylor is surging. Ten points, though, is a lot to give on the road, especially in Stillwater. Even RG3 played poorly against the Pokes. Baylor's ridiculous offense should put enough points on the board to stay unbeaten, but it's not going to be easy against an OSU team that has been just as hot as they have.
The pick: Baylor 49-45
SMU (-4) at South Florida
Under-the-radar story in college football the last month or so: Garrett Gilbert putting it together. In his last five games: 17 touchdowns, 1 pick, averaging 420 yards per game. Say what you want about the competition, the Gilbert of years past struggled against most opponents. He's at least earned himself a chance to work out for NFL teams.
I think he'll close this season strong and maybe even get SMU into a bowl game. It starts with a comfortable win over USF.
The pick: SMU 35-20
#8 Missouri at #24 Ole Miss (+3)
 |
| James Franklin is back just in time to help Mizzou secure the SEC East and get a shot at Alabama and the SEC title. |
The pick: Ole Miss 33-30
#20 Oklahoma (+3.5) at Kansas State
In typical Bill Snyder fashion, Kansas State has been quietly solid. The Wildcats have played top Big 12 contenders Baylor, Oklahoma State and Texas as tough as anyone. They crushed Texas Tech and got by everyone else in the league.
Then there are the inconsistent Sooners. Talented (I think), but inconsistent. Because the game is in Manhattan, I'll go with the well-coached Fightin' Snyders in a close one.
The pick: Kansas State 30-27
Wednesday, November 13, 2013
College Football Picks: Week 12
Is this a little hot streak after an October swoon? I went 8-2 last week on winners, and more importantly 6-3-1 against the spread to get me back above the .500 mark against the wise guys. Time to stay there.
Georgia Tech at #8 Clemson (-10.5) (Thursday)
Georgia Tech needs this game to clinch a share of the ACC Coastal division. Clemson cannot win the Atlantic, but the Tigers can keep themselves in position for an at-large BCS bid with a win here. While Clemson is a clear level below Florida State, the Tigers are a clear step above the rest of the ACC. They'll have an impressive showing.
The pick: Clemson 45-28
Washington at #13 UCLA (-2.5) (Friday)
Vegas still doesn't want to give UCLA's opponents very many points. They were only 1-point favorites last week at Arizona and now less than a field goal favorite at home. The Bruins still have a good shot at the BCS. Washington is squarely middle of the pack in the Pac-12 right now. They're way better than Colorado and Cal, but they're a clear level below Stanford and Oregon. UCLA is closer to those elite teams than Washington, and the Bruins are at home.
The pick: UCLA 49-33
#23 Miami at Duke (+3)
The ACC Coastal division is wide open, and both of these teams need this win to stay in the mix. While the talent on paper points to a Miami win, I've got a weird feeling that Duke is hitting is just starting to get. Miami has struggled in its last two games (although everyone struggles against Florida State). I'll take Duke in a nice upset win at home to make the ACC very interesting.
The pick: Duke 24-21
Florida at #10 South Carolina (-13.5)
Florida is in freefall and may even be without Tyler Murphy. The win for South Carolina should be easy against this struggling offensive team. I like SC to cover as well.
The pick: South Carolina 33-13
Michigan (+2.5) at Northwestern
It's the Free Fall Bowl! These two teams have been in a downward spiral for weeks. Northwestern's can partly be blamed on injuries, but I'm not sure what Michigan's excuse is. While I'm tempted to pick Michigan to keep tumbling, there's just little reason to pick Northwestern. The Wildcats are 0-5 in the Big Ten. I think it goes to 0-6.
The pick: Michigan 20-17
West Virginia (-6.5) at Kansas
Picking Kansas to not stay within a touchdown of anyone has to be the easiest call of the week.
The pick: West Virginia 35-10
#25 Georgia at #7 Auburn (-3.5)
Georgia has rebounded a little after some tough injuries early on, but Auburn has been rolling. While Georgia is holding out hope to somehow win the SEC East, Auburn is playing for the BCS. The Bulldogs just don't have the horses to go into Jordan-Hare and slow down or outscore War Eagle.
The pick: Auburn 33-28
#12 Oklahoma State (-3) at #24 Texas
The winner of this game immediately starts thinking about with Baylor: Oklahoma State hosts next week while Texas visits Waco December 7. We'll wait to call either one a Big 12 championship game.
It's been a fun ride for Mack Brown and his Texas Longhorns, but I think they run out of magic this week. The injuries have piled up, and the loss of RB Jonathan Gray and DT Chris Whaley will really hurt this week. I'll pick Oklahoma State to win the turnover battle end the 'Horns Fiesta Bowl dreams.
The pick: Oklahoma State 38-30
#16 Michigan State (-6.5) at Nebraska
This game has huge implications on who wins the Big Ten Legends division. While it's a bit early to say that the winner definitely takes the Legends, it's close. I'll take the Spartans' third-ranked defense to shut down Nebraska. With just Northwestern and Minnesota left, Sparty fans could start pricing hotels in Indianapolis.
The pick: Michigan State 17-9
#4 Stanford (-3.5) at USC
Vegas must be really impressed by USC's blowout of 1-8 Cal to make the Trojans only a 3.5-point underdog against Stanford. This seems like the lock of the week to me. USC has played better under Ed Orgeron, but Stanford is really hitting its stride. Cardinal will win this one by a lot more than 3.5
The pick: Stanford 38-17
Georgia Tech at #8 Clemson (-10.5) (Thursday)
Georgia Tech needs this game to clinch a share of the ACC Coastal division. Clemson cannot win the Atlantic, but the Tigers can keep themselves in position for an at-large BCS bid with a win here. While Clemson is a clear level below Florida State, the Tigers are a clear step above the rest of the ACC. They'll have an impressive showing.
The pick: Clemson 45-28
Washington at #13 UCLA (-2.5) (Friday)
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| Freshman Myles Jack is emerging as a two-way star for the Bruins. |
The pick: UCLA 49-33
#23 Miami at Duke (+3)
The ACC Coastal division is wide open, and both of these teams need this win to stay in the mix. While the talent on paper points to a Miami win, I've got a weird feeling that Duke is hitting is just starting to get. Miami has struggled in its last two games (although everyone struggles against Florida State). I'll take Duke in a nice upset win at home to make the ACC very interesting.
The pick: Duke 24-21
Florida at #10 South Carolina (-13.5)
Florida is in freefall and may even be without Tyler Murphy. The win for South Carolina should be easy against this struggling offensive team. I like SC to cover as well.
The pick: South Carolina 33-13
Michigan (+2.5) at Northwestern
It's the Free Fall Bowl! These two teams have been in a downward spiral for weeks. Northwestern's can partly be blamed on injuries, but I'm not sure what Michigan's excuse is. While I'm tempted to pick Michigan to keep tumbling, there's just little reason to pick Northwestern. The Wildcats are 0-5 in the Big Ten. I think it goes to 0-6.
The pick: Michigan 20-17
West Virginia (-6.5) at Kansas
Picking Kansas to not stay within a touchdown of anyone has to be the easiest call of the week.
The pick: West Virginia 35-10
#25 Georgia at #7 Auburn (-3.5)
 |
| If Tre Mason and Auburn can handle Georgia this week, that would set up an potentially epic Iron Bowl in 2 weeks. |
The pick: Auburn 33-28
#12 Oklahoma State (-3) at #24 Texas
The winner of this game immediately starts thinking about with Baylor: Oklahoma State hosts next week while Texas visits Waco December 7. We'll wait to call either one a Big 12 championship game.
It's been a fun ride for Mack Brown and his Texas Longhorns, but I think they run out of magic this week. The injuries have piled up, and the loss of RB Jonathan Gray and DT Chris Whaley will really hurt this week. I'll pick Oklahoma State to win the turnover battle end the 'Horns Fiesta Bowl dreams.
The pick: Oklahoma State 38-30
#16 Michigan State (-6.5) at Nebraska
This game has huge implications on who wins the Big Ten Legends division. While it's a bit early to say that the winner definitely takes the Legends, it's close. I'll take the Spartans' third-ranked defense to shut down Nebraska. With just Northwestern and Minnesota left, Sparty fans could start pricing hotels in Indianapolis.
The pick: Michigan State 17-9
#4 Stanford (-3.5) at USC
Vegas must be really impressed by USC's blowout of 1-8 Cal to make the Trojans only a 3.5-point underdog against Stanford. This seems like the lock of the week to me. USC has played better under Ed Orgeron, but Stanford is really hitting its stride. Cardinal will win this one by a lot more than 3.5
The pick: Stanford 38-17
Monday, November 4, 2013
College Football Picks: Week 11
While last week was very mediocre on winners (6-4), I had my best week this year against the spread at 7-3 to get me close to the .500 mark there. I was also one point away from nailing the Georgia-Florida score exactly. So, there's that.
Maybe that gives me some momentum heading into a critical week in the national championship chase. By the way, why do we have to have two top-ten showdowns on a Thursday night?
#10 Oklahoma (+14) at #6 Baylor (Thursday)
Oklahoma may seem a tad overrated at 10, but the Sooners will challenge Baylor like no one else has this year. Baylor's non-conference schedule was a joke, and the Bears were fortunate to start Big 12 play with the four of the five worst teams in the league. While I still think Baylor wins, the Sooners were not get embarrassed.
The pick: Baylor 45-35
#3 Oregon at #5 Stanford (+10.5) (Thursday)
Oregon obviously needs this not only to stay alive in the BCS championship hunt, but to also get a quality win to perhaps leap Florida State for that two spot. Meanwhile, Stanford could solidify its position as the best one-loss team in America. A win over Oregon might even leap Stanford past Ohio State, which would cause quite an uproar in Columbus.
Oregon is explosive as it always is, but Stanford is physical and disciplined. The Cardinal might come up short, but I expect Oregon to do something it hasn't had to do yet this year: battle until the final minute.
The pick: Oregon 38-34
Kansas State at #25 Texas Tech (-2.5)
Yes, Texas Tech has been humbled by Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, but I think the Red Raiders are more than a field goal better than Kansas State, especially at home. Texas Tech bounces back this week.
The pick: Texas Tech 49-24
SMU (+9.5) at Cincinnati
Don't look now, but Garrett Gilbert might be finally getting it together. The former five-star prospect has been great in his last three games: 11 total touchdowns to just 1 pick with an average of 448 yards per game with a completion percentage of 65.7. Not bad at all.
Will it be enough to get a win in Cincy? I don't believe so, but he will keep the Mustangs close.
The pick: Cincinnati 34-28
BYU at #24 Wisconsin (-7.5)
As a Marquette grad, I don't like to say this, but it's true: Wisconsin deserves a little more respect. Despite two losses, the Badgers are very talented and they played Ohio State as close as anyone will this year. Look for Wisconsin to not only win, but try to put a few extra points on the board to try to get up in the polls a little. They have the guys on defense to slow down BYU's rushing attack, especially at home.
The pick: Wisconsin 41-24
Texas (-7) at West Virginia
Maybe this is the Oliver Luck Bowl? Texas is reportedly hot after WVU's athletic director, but they dare not announce anything before this game. West Virginia has struggled this year, but they did squeak out a win at TCU last week, which isn't saying all that much.
Don't look now, but Texas has an honest shot at the Big 12 title, but this is the likely the last game in which Texas will be favored as three ranked teams remain. Texas has to take care of business this week.
The pick: Texas 28-20
Nebraska (+7) at Michigan
This is a hate pick more than anything. I'm done picking Michigan to do well against anyone except Notre Dame. I keep thinking they'll get it together, but they haven't. The team had -48 yards rushing against Michigan State, a good defense and all, but... negative 48. Yikes. They might be a little better than that against Nebraska, but I think Michigan is just going to keep falling.
The pick: Nebraska 27-24
#9 Auburn (-7.5) at Tennessee
It's time to respect Auburn as a legit BCS contender. That means winning by more than a touchdown at a very average Tennessee team. If Auburn loses, we can go back to overlooking them.
The pick: Auburn 35-24
#13 LSU (+12.5) at #1 Alabama
There were a couple years there when this game had the feel of a national semifinal. Even earlier this year, LSU had the look of a team that could challenge Alabama. Now, I'm not so sure. Bama looks as strong as ever while LSU has some questions marks. I want to believe the Tigers will be dialed in and give Alabama a game because the talent is there for the Tigers. Alabama should still win with very little drama, but I'll say LSU barely covers.
The pick: Alabama 33-21
#19 UCLA (-1.5) at Arizona
When I saw this line, I check to see if UCLA had some significant injuries that I didn't know about. Then I see that maybe Arizona is a little better than I thought. The Wildcats are 12th in the nation in rushing yards and have the country's 26th-ranked scoring defense. Not bad, but I still believe UCLA is the third best team in the Pac-12 behind BCS-quality squads Oregon and Stanford. They'll give the one point because I don't believe they'll need it.
The pick: UCLA 38-30
I'm a little worried because I have way too many losers covering. Oh well...
Maybe that gives me some momentum heading into a critical week in the national championship chase. By the way, why do we have to have two top-ten showdowns on a Thursday night?
#10 Oklahoma (+14) at #6 Baylor (Thursday)
 |
| Bryce Petty steps into prime time this week. Can he deliver? |
The pick: Baylor 45-35
#3 Oregon at #5 Stanford (+10.5) (Thursday)
Oregon obviously needs this not only to stay alive in the BCS championship hunt, but to also get a quality win to perhaps leap Florida State for that two spot. Meanwhile, Stanford could solidify its position as the best one-loss team in America. A win over Oregon might even leap Stanford past Ohio State, which would cause quite an uproar in Columbus.
Oregon is explosive as it always is, but Stanford is physical and disciplined. The Cardinal might come up short, but I expect Oregon to do something it hasn't had to do yet this year: battle until the final minute.
The pick: Oregon 38-34
Kansas State at #25 Texas Tech (-2.5)
Yes, Texas Tech has been humbled by Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, but I think the Red Raiders are more than a field goal better than Kansas State, especially at home. Texas Tech bounces back this week.
The pick: Texas Tech 49-24
SMU (+9.5) at Cincinnati
 |
| Garrett Gilbert MIGHT just be finally emerging as a college QB. |
Will it be enough to get a win in Cincy? I don't believe so, but he will keep the Mustangs close.
The pick: Cincinnati 34-28
BYU at #24 Wisconsin (-7.5)
As a Marquette grad, I don't like to say this, but it's true: Wisconsin deserves a little more respect. Despite two losses, the Badgers are very talented and they played Ohio State as close as anyone will this year. Look for Wisconsin to not only win, but try to put a few extra points on the board to try to get up in the polls a little. They have the guys on defense to slow down BYU's rushing attack, especially at home.
The pick: Wisconsin 41-24
Texas (-7) at West Virginia
Maybe this is the Oliver Luck Bowl? Texas is reportedly hot after WVU's athletic director, but they dare not announce anything before this game. West Virginia has struggled this year, but they did squeak out a win at TCU last week, which isn't saying all that much.
Don't look now, but Texas has an honest shot at the Big 12 title, but this is the likely the last game in which Texas will be favored as three ranked teams remain. Texas has to take care of business this week.
The pick: Texas 28-20
Nebraska (+7) at Michigan
This is a hate pick more than anything. I'm done picking Michigan to do well against anyone except Notre Dame. I keep thinking they'll get it together, but they haven't. The team had -48 yards rushing against Michigan State, a good defense and all, but... negative 48. Yikes. They might be a little better than that against Nebraska, but I think Michigan is just going to keep falling.
The pick: Nebraska 27-24
#9 Auburn (-7.5) at Tennessee
It's time to respect Auburn as a legit BCS contender. That means winning by more than a touchdown at a very average Tennessee team. If Auburn loses, we can go back to overlooking them.
The pick: Auburn 35-24
#13 LSU (+12.5) at #1 Alabama
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| If Mettenberger plays well, LSU could shake up the BCS. |
The pick: Alabama 33-21
#19 UCLA (-1.5) at Arizona
When I saw this line, I check to see if UCLA had some significant injuries that I didn't know about. Then I see that maybe Arizona is a little better than I thought. The Wildcats are 12th in the nation in rushing yards and have the country's 26th-ranked scoring defense. Not bad, but I still believe UCLA is the third best team in the Pac-12 behind BCS-quality squads Oregon and Stanford. They'll give the one point because I don't believe they'll need it.
The pick: UCLA 38-30
I'm a little worried because I have way too many losers covering. Oh well...
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