Tuesday, November 19, 2013

College Football Picks: Week 13

It was another strong week: 8-2 on winners and 7-3 against the spread. Of course, one of my losers was what I thought was the lock of the week. Good job, Jayhawks. It was the second most impressive thing I saw last week.

On to this week...

Northern Illinois (-2.5) at Toledo (Wednesday)
Like it or not, Jordan Lynch and Northern Illinois
are closing in on another BCS berth.
Love 'em or hate 'em, Northern Illinois has plenty of talent to keep charging through the MAC and get into the BCS. They'll take care of business in Toledo.
The pick: Northern Illinois 40-30

Pitt at Syracuse (+1)
The only thing I can say about this matchup is it makes me miss the old Big East... the basketball version. Forget football.
Two 5-5 teams scrapping to get into a bowl game here. I'll take the team with the better running game.
The pick: Syracuse 31-28

Michigan State (-7.5) at Northwestern
Poor Northwestern. The slide continues as they lost the Free Fall Bowl to Michigan last week. It won't get any better against the top defense in the Big Ten.
The pick: Michigan State 30-10

#17 Arizona State at #14 UCLA (+2.5)
I'm stunned to see UCLA a home 'dog. Yes, Arizona State could clinch the Pac-12 South with a win, but don't forget UCLA's two losses were to Oregon and Stanford. The Sun Devils were spared a date with the Ducks. UCLA will outgun ASU at home, setting up a showdown with resurgent rival USC for the Pac-12 South next week
The pick: UCLA 35-33

#12 Texas A&M (+4) at #22 LSU
Manziel will remind you why he's the Heisman favorite.
Johnny Football needs a few big moments to remind Heisman voters that he's the guy this year. His best game came in a losing effort to Alabama. A&M's defense will give up plenty of points, but I predict Manziel will pull out a dramatic win to secure a few more Heisman votes.
The pick: Texas A&M 51-49

BYU at Notre Dame (+1)
The Irish were embarrassed last time out in a loss to Pitt - maybe only the school's second most embarrassing loss this month, though. They've had two weeks to figure things out. I'll give them the edge because they're at home and the defense should get a few guys back. Like most Irish wins this year, though, it won't be pretty.
The pick: Notre Dame 23-20

#4 Baylor at #10 Oklahoma State (+10)
Yes, Baylor is surging. Ten points, though, is a lot to give on the road, especially in Stillwater. Even RG3 played poorly against the Pokes. Baylor's ridiculous offense should put enough points on the board to stay unbeaten, but it's not going to be easy against an OSU team that has been just as hot as they have.
The pick: Baylor 49-45

SMU (-4) at South Florida
Under-the-radar story in college football the last month or so: Garrett Gilbert putting it together. In his last five games: 17 touchdowns, 1 pick, averaging 420 yards per game. Say what you want about the competition, the Gilbert of years past struggled against most opponents. He's at least earned himself a chance to work out for NFL teams.
I think he'll close this season strong and maybe even get SMU into a bowl game. It starts with a comfortable win over USF.
The pick: SMU 35-20

#8 Missouri at #24 Ole Miss (+3)
James Franklin is back just in time to help Mizzou secure
the SEC East and get a shot at Alabama and the SEC title.
Missouri gets James Franklin back this week, which is obviously huge. The Rebels' three losses have all come to teams currently in the BCS top 12. Their recruiting class was much-heralded coming in, and it may be time for the young rebels to get a signature win in their debut season.
The pick: Ole Miss 33-30

#20 Oklahoma (+3.5) at Kansas State
In typical Bill Snyder fashion, Kansas State has been quietly solid. The Wildcats have played top Big 12 contenders Baylor, Oklahoma State and Texas as tough as anyone. They crushed Texas Tech and got by everyone else in the league.
Then there are the inconsistent Sooners. Talented (I think), but inconsistent. Because the game is in Manhattan, I'll go with the well-coached Fightin' Snyders in a close one.
The pick: Kansas State 30-27

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