College Football Picks: Week 11

While last week was very mediocre on winners (6-4), I had my best week this year against the spread at 7-3 to get me close to the .500 mark there. I was also one point away from nailing the Georgia-Florida score exactly. So, there's that.

Maybe that gives me some momentum heading into a critical week in the national championship chase. By the way, why do we have to have two top-ten showdowns on a Thursday night?

#10 Oklahoma (+14) at #6 Baylor (Thursday)

Bryce Petty steps into prime time this week. Can he deliver?

Oklahoma may seem a tad overrated at 10, but the Sooners will challenge Baylor like no one else has this year. Baylor's non-conference schedule was a joke, and the Bears were fortunate to start Big 12 play with the four of the five worst teams in the league. While I still think Baylor wins, the Sooners were not get embarrassed.
The pick: Baylor 45-35

#3 Oregon at #5 Stanford (+10.5) (Thursday)
Oregon obviously needs this not only to stay alive in the BCS championship hunt, but to also get a quality win to perhaps leap Florida State for that two spot. Meanwhile, Stanford could solidify its position as the best one-loss team in America. A win over Oregon might even leap Stanford past Ohio State, which would cause quite an uproar in Columbus.
Oregon is explosive as it always is, but Stanford is physical and disciplined. The Cardinal might come up short, but I expect Oregon to do something it hasn't had to do yet this year: battle until the final minute.
The pick: Oregon 38-34

Kansas State at #25 Texas Tech (-2.5)
Yes, Texas Tech has been humbled by Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, but I think the Red Raiders are more than a field goal better than Kansas State, especially at home. Texas Tech bounces back this week.
The pick: Texas Tech 49-24

SMU (+9.5) at Cincinnati

Garrett Gilbert MIGHT just be finally emerging as a college QB.

Don't look now, but Garrett Gilbert might be finally getting it together. The former five-star prospect has been great in his last three games: 11 total touchdowns to just 1 pick with an average of 448 yards per game with a completion percentage of 65.7. Not bad at all.
Will it be enough to get a win in Cincy? I don't believe so, but he will keep the Mustangs close.
The pick: Cincinnati 34-28

BYU at #24 Wisconsin (-7.5)
As a Marquette grad, I don't like to say this, but it's true: Wisconsin deserves a little more respect. Despite two losses, the Badgers are very talented and they played Ohio State as close as anyone will this year. Look for Wisconsin to not only win, but try to put a few extra points on the board to try to get up in the polls a little. They have the guys on defense to slow down BYU's rushing attack, especially at home.
The pick: Wisconsin 41-24

Texas (-7) at West Virginia
Maybe this is the Oliver Luck Bowl? Texas is reportedly hot after WVU's athletic director, but they dare not announce anything before this game. West Virginia has struggled this year, but they did squeak out a win at TCU last week, which isn't saying all that much.
Don't look now, but Texas has an honest shot at the Big 12 title, but this is the likely the last game in which Texas will be favored as three ranked teams remain. Texas has to take care of business this week.
The pick: Texas 28-20

Nebraska (+7) at Michigan
This is a hate pick more than anything. I'm done picking Michigan to do well against anyone except Notre Dame. I keep thinking they'll get it together, but they haven't. The team had -48 yards rushing against Michigan State, a good defense and all, but... negative 48. Yikes. They might be a little better than that against Nebraska, but I think Michigan is just going to keep falling.
The pick: Nebraska 27-24

#9 Auburn (-7.5) at Tennessee
It's time to respect Auburn as a legit BCS contender. That means winning by more than a touchdown at a very average Tennessee team. If Auburn loses, we can go back to overlooking them.
The pick: Auburn 35-24

#13 LSU (+12.5) at #1 Alabama

If Mettenberger plays well, LSU could shake up the BCS.

There were a couple years there when this game had the feel of a national semifinal. Even earlier this year, LSU had the look of a team that could challenge Alabama. Now, I'm not so sure. Bama looks as strong as ever while LSU has some questions marks. I want to believe the Tigers will be dialed in and give Alabama a game because the talent is there for the Tigers. Alabama should still win with very little drama, but I'll say LSU barely covers.
The pick: Alabama 33-21

#19 UCLA (-1.5) at Arizona
When I saw this line, I check to see if UCLA had some significant injuries that I didn't know about. Then I see that maybe Arizona is a little better than I thought. The Wildcats are 12th in the nation in rushing yards and have the country's 26th-ranked scoring defense. Not bad, but I still believe UCLA is the third best team in the Pac-12 behind BCS-quality squads Oregon and Stanford. They'll give the one point because I don't believe they'll need it.
The pick: UCLA 38-30

I'm a little worried because I have way too many losers covering. Oh well...