College Football Picks: Week 10

Pick against the spread? Challenge Accepted!

Recently, a friend challenged me to pick against the spread instead of picking winners. Last week's performance is an example of why I don't. I went 7-3, but would not have done so well against the spread. There were close games I thought would be routs and routs I thought would be much closer.

But, the challenge of picking against the spread intrigues me. I'm not one to back down from a challenge, even if I end up taking a beating. Hey, I'm not playing for money... yet. So, for the rest of the season, I'll keep track of both winners AND how I do against the spread. Game on.

The locals
Tulsa at Central Florida (-3) - Thursday
Circle this for the first questionable line of the week. Tulsa is an underdog in this one? I know TU is on the road, but UCF has a head-scratching loss to UAB and has also lost to SMU. That's the same SMU team that Tulsa blew out 38-7, and TU also took care of UAB by 17 points. Don't forget that Tulsa's three losses are to three of the top six teams in the BCS. Tulsa not only covers, but wins.
The pick: Tulsa 31-21

Texas A&M at #6 Oklahoma (-16.5)
If recent history is any indication, Texas A&M should start strong but collapse in the fourth quarter. The Sooners are getting a lot of points, but they can also score a lot, as Kansas State found out. The Aggies, though, can throw the ball much more efficiently than the Wildcats. I like their running game better, too. The Aggies have the firepower to keep this game closer than Vegas thinks, but I can't see them winning in Norman. (insert Texas Tech joke here)
The pick: Oklahoma 44-30

#14 Kansas State at #3 Oklahoma State (-21.5)
Kansas State got absolutely embarrassed last week in Norman, and I'm not sure it gets much better this week. The line in Vegas is an indication of that. OSU, however, thrives off of forcing turnovers in the passing game. The Wildcats will be content to run it in attempt to slow the game down. However, that running game won't be able to score enough points to keep up with the OSU offense. Kansas State may keep it close enough to cover, but not enough to win.
The pick: Oklahoma State 41-21

National Semifinal
#1 LSU at #2 Alabama (-4.5)

Richardson could be a deciding factor this week.

My only hope is that this game lives up to the ridiculous hype, which at this point, might be tough. Both of these teams are national championship quality, and it's not ridiculous to think they meet again in New Orleans. The key to the game for me is Trent Richardson. If Alabama gets him involved early and often, the Tide will win. If LSU contains him, there will be a party in Baton Rouge (well, they'll party either way, but you know what I mean). The three reasons I lean towards Alabama: the game is in Tuscaloosa, Richardson is an X-factor, and I like Saban in this setting. Les Miles is fantastic, an expert risk taker. However, Saban is cool under pressure, and I give him a slight edge. I think it comes down to the end and which offense can finally figure out the opposing defense. It'll be closer than 4.5, but I have to give the edge to Alabama.
The pick: Alabama 20-17

The other big SEC game
#9 South Carolina at #7 Arkansas (-4.5)
All the hype over LSU/Alabama is overshadowing another critical game in the SEC. South Carolina controls its own destiny in the SEC East. Arkansas needs this one to stay in the hunt in the SEC West. Don't forget that if LSU wins, Arkansas gets a shot at the Tigers and could force a three-way tie for first, but that's looking too far down the road.
The Hogs have played with fire the last two weeks as they have barely slipped past Ole Miss and Vanderbilt. They return home this week, though. Plus, South Carolina is dealing with the unfortunate loss of Marcus Lattimore to a knee injury. Those two factors combine to help Arkansas win and cover.
The pick: Arkansas 28-20

Who are these guys?
Texas Tech at #21 Texas (-10)
Is there any team more confusing right now than Texas Tech? The Red Raiders went into Norman and handed Bob Stoops only his third home loss with the Sooners two weeks ago. That earned them a lot of respect, and they shot up in the BCS rankings. Then they promptly went home to Lubbock and got crushed by lowly Iowa State. That's what makes this pick so tough. If I knew which Texas Tech team was showing up this week, it's an easy pick one way or the other. Unfortunately, I have no idea which one will show up in Austin. Tech has to come out refocused against the hated Longhorns, but I think the Texas defensive front will cause enough problems to keep that offense in check. Now, can Texas score enough to cover? I don't know. They scored 43 against Kansas, but everyone scores a lot against Kansas. I think it's closer than that, but Texas should win.
The pick: Texas 30-21

The home 'dog
Missouri (-1) at Baylor
Both of these teams surprised me last week. I was impressed with Missouri's ability to battle back on the road against A&M. I also couldn't believe how badly Baylor got embarrassed by Oklahoma State. I never expected Baylor to win, but to pile up 622 yards of offense and lose by 35 points? Wow. Baylor needs this one to stay remotely relevant in the Big 12. I'm a little surprised the Bears are a home underdog, but it's only one point. Neither one of these teams have a good defense. Look for a lot of points, and I think Robert Griffin rebounds from a sloppy week.
The pick: Baylor 38-35

The fly in the BCS ointment
Cincinnati (-3) at Pittsburgh
Pitt is 4-4, but if the Panthers win out, they will be in the BCS. Makes you groan, doesn't it? Cincinnati could also win out and get in, but at least that would leave them at a respectable 11-1. There are a lot of games between now and then, including this one. I like Cincinnati's offense, and I think it will be too much for Pittsburgh.
The pick: Cincinnati 28-24

They are what they are
Notre Dame (-14) at Wake Forest
What do we know about Notre Dame? The Irish cruise past weak opponents, but give the game away against stronger ones. Wake Forest (coming off a 25-point loss to North Carolina, preceded by a one-point win over Duke) is more the former than the latter. The Irish should be able to handle this one. Win and cover.
The pick: Notre Dame 38-21

Future ORU opponents
Central Arkansas at Northwestern State (No Line)
A battle to decide the Southland Conference, the future home of Oral Roberts (in all other sports obviously, since ORU doesn't play football). Central Arkansas is led by former Arkansas QB Nathan Dick. I'll take the experienced one-time SEC quarterback to lead the Bears to victory.
The pick: Central Arkansas 30-27

Enjoy an important week in college football. And remember to check your mailboxes for invitations to join the Big East.