2012 Bowl Picks - Part Two

Happy holidays! I hope it's going better than my picks so far. Part one was released before Christmas. Now that it appears the Mayans were wrong and 2013 will indeed come, let's check out the first bowl games of the new year.

TaxSlayer.com Gator Bowl

Mississippi State -2 vs Northwestern

Generally speaking, Mississippi State rolled the lesser teams in the SEC and got pounded by the good ones. Then they lost to Ole Miss in a rivalry game. Northwestern is a well-coached team that did let some key games slip away this year, or else they might be in the Rose Bowl. I have to go with the SEC team, but Northwestern will hang around.
The pick: Mississippi State 36-30

Heart of Dallas Bowl

Purdue vs Oklahoma State -16.5

Oklahoma State has a deep, talented offense. Purdue did not beat a single FBS team with a winning record. As long as OSU is motivated to play (this bowl slot has to be a disappointment for them), the Cowboys should destroy Purdue.
The pick: Oklahoma State 56-20

Capital One Bowl

#7 Georgia -10 vs #16 Nebraska

Murray and the Dawgs narrowly missed playing for it all.
They'll close out the season with a comfortable win in Orlando.

Nebraska was absolutely embarrassed by Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship game. Georgia was a play away from being in the national championship. I almost always pick SEC over Big Ten, and this is no different. Georgia's defense should make life miserable for Taylor Martinez, and Georgia should score at will. Maybe not to the extent Wisconsin did, but Georgia will score a lot.
The pick: Georgia 44-17

Outback Bowl

#10 South Carolina -5.5 vs #18 Michigan

It's another SEC-Big Ten showdown that I think grossly favors the SEC. Injuries may have kept South Carolina out of the national title picture. They're a solid team, and Michigan is very inconsistent. After dealing with a legal issue, Denard Robinson is expected to play for Michigan. But his health is uncertain as he was unable to throw the ball late in the year due to an arm problem. He can still run, though, so he'll help. South Carolina will still win easily.
The pick: South Carolina 34-21

Rose Bowl

#6 Stanford vs Wisconsin +6.5

I think this will be close because I think it will be low-scoring. The Badgers lost head coach Bret Bielema, who left for Arkansas. The players, though, may be fired up to play one time for Barry Alvarez. Stanford's defense will not let them run up the score like they did against Nebraska, however. I think this will be a tough game that Stanford will grind out in the end.
The pick: Stanford 20-17

Discover Orange Bowl

#12 Florida State -13 vs #15 Northern Illinois

Nobody thinks Northern Illinois belongs in the BCS.
They don't care. They can't wait for a shot at Florida State.

The opinion that Northern Illinois has no business being in this game has been discussed plenty. But did you know that, according to Phil Steele, Northern Illinois had the worst schedule among all 124 FBS schools? The worst. Dead freaking last. How that got them to 16th in the BCS computers is crazy. Perhaps it speaks to what a down year overall this was in college football.

The only question in this game is if Florida State is motivated to play its best. NIU certainly will. They hear the doubters and have read all the bulletin board material... well, except maybe mine. The Huskies will play like this is their BCS National Championship Game. And they should. They shouldn't apologize to anyone. There were rules in place for them to get in, and they got in. They won their league and had a better BCS number than the Big East champ. That's the way it is.

I don't think Florida State will get caught napping, though. They're not exactly at home, but they're in their home state. The 'Noles will have plenty of fans there. Florida State could probably play at 80% and still win this game by two possessions.

The pick: Florida State 49-17

AllState Sugar Bowl

#21 Louisville vs #3 Florida -14

Speaking of teams who hardly deserve to be in the BCS, Louisville may deserve it less than Northern Illinois. They won the lousy Big East and had a lower BCS ranking than NIU (the whole reason NIU is in to begin with). Even though they won't win it, Florida is a national championship-quality team. This game may be as ugly as the Orange Bowl. The "Charlie Strong vs. Florida" angle will be used to hype it up, but I think the game will get ugly quick. Louisville will not stop Florida all night.

The pick: Florida 52-21

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl

#4 Oregon -9.5 vs #5 Kansas State

On the morning of November 17, it appeared that this match-up would be our national championship game. Then the Ducks and Wildcats both lost. It's still a very interesting bowl game, though. Contrasting styles: Oregon's fireworks against Bill Snyder's old school ways. The Wildcats are well coached enough to slow Oregon down the same way Stanford did. This game will be close all night, but I'll say Oregon gets a late score to cover. Too much speed.
The pick: Oregon 35-24

AT&T Cotton Bowl

#9 Texas A&M vs #11 Oklahoma +4.5

The Cotton Bowl got a great draw thanks to the BCS mess.
Texas A&M and Oklahoma should be a classic.

This is easily the best non-BCS game, and it's the third most interesting bowl game overall in my opinion (behind the Fiesta and national championship). Fun fact: with this game, Oklahoma finally passes Marquette in Cotton Bowl appearances. Marquette played in the first ever Cotton Bowl in 1937, never went back and shut down its football program in 1960. In an odd quirk, this is only the second time the storied Sooners have been. They're normally playing in a Fiesta or Orange bowl, or they have a rough year and settle for something like the Sun Bowl.
But I digress. I'm excited to see the Big 12 reunion with the Aggies, and I think it'll be a high scoring affair. Landry Jones finished the season strong, and there's every reason to believe he can hold up throw for throw with Heisman winner Johnny Manziel. I think it will be a great game, but A&M is solid. They'll pull through in a great one.
The pick: Texas A&M 33-31

BBVA Compass Bowl

Pittsburgh vs Ole Miss -3.5

I would call it an appetizer before the national championship, but this is more like the bread you keep eating because your food is taking forever. It's all that's there. Big East vs SEC? Easy.
The pick: Ole Miss 34-17

GoDaddy.com Bowl

#25 Kent State vs Arkansas State -4

If this was basketball, you'd say it was a battle of two of the top mid-majors. Kent State nearly got into the BCS before falling to Northern Illinois. Arkansas State won the Sun Belt, which actually was a decent league by its standards this year. The Red Wolves had a great year under Gus Malzahn, who is now at Auburn. They're a high scoring team, and they'll outpace Kent State. Yes, the Golden Flashes are ranked, but don't forget they lost by 33 to Kentucky.
The pick: Arkansas State 42-35

BCS National Championship

#2 Alabama vs #1 Notre Dame +9.5

The Notre Dame defense has been great, but can it stop
the SEC's dominance in the BCS era?

Despite the huge line, I've maintained since this game became a possibility that the Irish would not get blown out by anyone. I'll take the 9.5 points for sure.
Yes, Alabama is great and the SEC champions, but Notre Dame's defense will keep them in any game. The key is avoiding the big play. If Alabama breaks off a couple 50+ yard touchdown plays, it will get out of hand. If the Irish can continue their great defense in the red zone and hold Bama to field goals (like they did against Oklahoma and USC), then they have a shot. Plus, the Irish have shown a great ability to run the ball and control the clock in against tough opponents like Oklahoma and Stanford.
That said, this is Alabama's third national championship game in four years. A.J. McCarron is playing in his second. Nick Saban is a mastermind. They're the SEC champions, and the SEC has claimed six BCS titles in a row, have won 8 of the 14 BCS titles ever and are 8-0 in BCS title games. Every statistic says Alabama will win this game.
So, I won't. The Irish run the ball, play great defense, and grind out a crazy win.
The pick: Notre Dame 24-21

Going out on a limb? Sure. Why not?

Happy New Year.