2012 Bowl Picks - Part One

It's time for my final exam - the bowl picks. I can only hope these go as well as my championship week picks, which I crushed. I went 11-1 on winners (thanks for nothing, Nebraska) to wrap up the regular season and 8-4 against the spread. I had 99 wins in the regular season. I'm cautiously optimistic I can get to 100.

Now, it's time to figure out where these bowls are and who's playing in them... oh, and who's going to win, too. I'll include the sponsor names with the hope at least one of them sends me free stuff.

Gildan New Mexico Bowl
Nevada vs. Arizona -8.5

Rich Rod kicks off your bowl season in New Mexico.

I really like Rich Rodriguez's offense in this one. Arizona is an improving team and lost some tough games to some good teams in the Pac-12. Nevada can score, though, (37 points per game), so look for a shootout.
The pick: Arizona 45-35

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Toledo +10.5 vs. Utah State
Utah State is the better team, especially defensively. The Aggies rank eighth in the FBS in points allowed (15.4). MAC teams have a way of making games interesting, though. Toledo will hang around, but Utah State will win.
The pick: Utah State 38-35

Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl
Central Florida vs. Ball State +7.5
If it wasn't for Tulsa, UCF might be in the Liberty Bowl. UCF lost twice to Tulsa, including the Conference USA championship. See my previous comment about MAC teams, though. Ball State's only losses in conference were to the teams that battled to be in the BCS: Kent State and Northern Illinois. UCF wins a close one.
The pick: Central Florida 30-28

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
BYU vs. San Diego State +2.5
BYU has a tough defense, but it has to because its offense isn't that great. San Diego State is playing in its home stadium, Qualcomm Stadium. Sophomore quarterback Adam Dingwell has filled in nicely for injured starter Ryan Katz, and I think he'll lead the Aztecs to a win to close out the season.
The pick: San Diego State 24-21

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl
East Carolina vs UL-Lafayette -5.5
The Ragin' Cajuns nearly beat Florida in the Swamp, and they went on to finish second in the Sun Belt, which wasn't a bad league this year. East Carolina only had one loss in Conference USA, but didn't play Tulsa and its one loss was to UCF. ULL is playing close to home, and I think they'll play well in front of their fans.
The pick: UL-Lafayette 38-31

Maaco Bowl Las Vegas
Washington +5.5 vs #19 Boise State
This is not the great upstart Boise State team of years past. They're a nice team from a bad conference. Washington might be the best team they've played all year. Despite getting stunned by Washington State in the season finale, Washington had some nice wins this year over Stanford and Oregon State. The Huskies also had some ugly losses to like that Apple Cup game, but I think they'll play better to wrap up their season.
The pick: Washington 27-24

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl
Fresno State vs SMU +12

For the second time in four seasons, June Jones and SMU
will be in the Hawaii Bowl. They won the game in 2009.

Former Hawaii coach June Jones returns to the islands, and his SMU Mustangs are big underdog. SMU struggled this year as Texas transfer Garrett Gilbert didn't flourish as SMU had hoped. Fresno State, meanwhile, has one of the highest-scoring offenses in the FBS: 40.3 points per game, good for 12th. The Bulldogs, though, did lose to Tulsa, a team SMU upset to get bowl eligible. I think SMU will rely on Zach Line to run the ball a lot at keep the Fresno State offense on the sideline to keep it close. It won't be enough to win, though.
The pick: Fresno State 31-21

Little Caesars Bowl
Western Kentucky -5.5 vs. Central Michigan
A mediocre game here: a 7-5 Western Kentucky team that lost its coach to South Florida meeting a 6-6 MAC team. I'll just go with what the spread says. I do like Big Red, though.
The pick: Western Kentucky 29-23

Military Bowl
#24 San Jose State vs. Bowling Green +7.5
For the third time in this blog, I'm going to pick the MAC team to cover but lose. San Jose State had a great year as the Spartans went 10-2, including a narrow three-point loss to Stanford. Their coach, though, is on his way to Colorado. Mike MacIntyre will not be with his team, and I think that will have an effect. Bowling Green's defense is tough and will slow San Jose State down, but the Spartans should have enough offense to win. David Fales had a solid year at quarterback: 3,798 yards, 31 TDs and 9 picks. He'll have enough to get the Spartans the win.
The pick: San Jose State 27-24

Belk Bowl
Cincinnati -7.5 vs. Duke
I'd enjoy this more if it was basketball. Duke was 6-2 at one point, but lost four straight (Florida State, Clemson, Georgia Tech and Miami) to just barely be bowl eligible. As mediocre as the Big East is, Duke really doesn't have any impressive wins to make me think they'll win this one.
The pick: Cincinnati 41-27

Bridgepoint Education Holiday Bowl
Baylor +1 vs. UCLA
This is probably the first game on the bowl slate that the average college football fan will look at and say, "Okay, I'll watch that one." I really like the way both teams showed up this. Jim Mora did a great job in his first year with the Bruins, and Baylor proved that they can keep winning after RG3. The Holiday Bowl tends to be a good game, and I think these two will deliver. I'll take Baylor winning a wild one.
The pick: Baylor 35-33

Advocare V100 Independence Bowl
Ohio +7 vs. Louisiana Tech  UL-Monroe

I'm actually interested to see ULM's Kolton Browning
try to outscore Tyler Tettleton and Ohio.

Sorry, Louisiana Tech. I feel bad for the kids there. Blame the athletic director or the bowl system or a little of both, but Louisiana Tech's players got horribly screwed out of a well-deserved bowl game.
Enter the opportunity for UL-Monroe. Of all the "lesser" bowl games, I'm actually mildly interested in this one as it features the two teams that looked like Cinderellas in September. The two quarterbacks, Ohio's Tyler Tettleton and Monroe's Kolton Browning should put on a show. I see a fun back-and-forth game that ends with a dramatic Warhawks win.
The pick: UL-Monroe 33-30

Russell Athletic Bowl
Rutgers vs. Virginia Tech -2.5
Virginia Tech had a bad year by Hokie standards. Rutgers, meanwhile, overachieved and nearly got into the BCS. I think the Scarlet Knights are disappointed to be in this game, but Virginia Tech can't be too fired up either after going 6-6. I just can't pick a Big East team.
The pick: Virginia Tech 24-21

Meineke Car Care Bowl of Texas
Minnesota vs. Texas Tech -13
Easy pick for me (which makes me a bit nervous). Minnesota went 2-6 in the Big Ten and became bowl eligible thanks to wins over UNLV, New Hampshire and Western Michigan. Slow clap.
Texas Tech should be able to throw it all over the field, and it'll be a fine send off for senior quarterback Seth Doege, who has had a nice college career after battling knee injuries throughout high school.
The pick: Texas Tech 49-17

Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl
Rice vs. Air Force -1
This bowl season: two 6-6 teams square off. Go with the Air Force in the Armed Forces Bowl.
The pick: Air Force 33-30

New Era Pinstripe Bowl
West Virginia -4 vs Syracuse
An old Big East rivalry renewed!! No? Not exciting enough?
Look for a lot of offense in this one. Both teams can score in a hurry but give up points just as quickly. West Virginia will be the second most talented offense Syracuse has seen (behind USC), and I'll pick Geno Smith to go out firing.
The pick: West Virginia 52-38

Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl
Navy +14.5 vs. Arizona State
Navy is a huge underdog, but the option is tough to prepare for, and I think their running game will make it tough for Arizona State to blow them out. I do expect the Sun Devils to pull away and win, though.
The pick: Arizona State 34-21

Valero Alamo Bowl
#13 Oregon State -2 vs #23 Texas

It's been another frustrating year in Austin.

Overachievers against underachievers? Oregon State has had a nice year while Texas has once again fallen from its lofty preseason rankings (yet somehow remains ranked through it all). It seems crazy to say, but I think Oregon State is better coached and more fundamentally sound than Texas. I think that will be the difference in this one. Oregon State capitalizes on the Longhorns' mistakes to win.
The pick: Oregon State 28-20

Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl
TCU -2.5 vs Michigan State
Michigan State has struggled to score all year, and TCU's defense only got better as the season went along. The Frogs' offense has improved as well as Trevone Boykin has settled in. The drug suspensions and injuries made for a somewhat disappointing debut season in the Big 12 for TCU, but the Frogs recovered nicely, and I think they'll close out 2012 with a solid win.
The pick: TCU 27-17

Franklin American Mortgage Music City Bowl
NC State vs Vanderbilt -6.5
In the battle of SEC vs ACC, I always have to lean SEC. Vanderbilt has to be extremely happy that James Franklin is still there after all the coaching changes over the past  few weeks. Plus, the Commodores are playing close to home.
The pick: Vanderbilt 38-24

Hyundai Sun Bowl
USC -10 vs Georgia Tech

After being a preseason pick to win it all, USC will close
out its season in the Sun Bowl, maybe with Barkley back.

Matt Barkley might return to play. Whether he does or he doesn't, USC should have enough firepower to blow past Georgia Tech.
The pick: USC 38-21

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Iowa State vs.  Tulsa (PK)
Iowa State rolled over Tulsa in the season opener 38-23, but that was Cody Green's first game with TU. Tulsa's offense is playing much better know, and the Golden Hurricane will be fired up to play in the Liberty Bowl after winning the Conference USA Championship. The Cyclones will be tough again, but I think TU closes out the season strong.
The pick: Tulsa 30-27

Chick-fil-A Bowl
#8 LSU -3.5 vs. #14 Clemson
LSU easily has the better defense and more talent overall, but the quarterback position makes me think Clemson can hang around. Tajh Boyd and wide receiver Sammy Watkins can be trouble for any defense. Meanwhile, LSU's Zach Mettenberger can be as hot and cold as any quarterback in America. I think LSU will keep the ball on the ground to protect Mettenberger and the LSU pass rush will wear down Clemson by the end. Besides, the SEC absolutely dominated the ACC in November (Georgia/Georgia Tech, Florida/Florida State, South Carolina/Clemson). I think the SEC gets one more here.
The pick: LSU 31-21


I'll finish the rest of the bowl picks closer to New Year's Day. Merry Christmas, everyone.