College Football Picks - Week 9

Well, Howdy Doody! It was a red letter week on the winners in Week 8 as I scored my first 10-0 of the year. The spread thing continues to be tricky as I was just 5-5 there.

There are three big games this week involving teams in the top 11 in the BCS, but those games could all be blowouts. We'll get to those.

Cincinnati at #16 Louisville -3.5

Just when Cincinnati was looking like a team that might threaten Louisville in the Big East, the Bearcats go out and lose to Toledo? What was that? A short week on the road is not an ideal time to figure out what went wrong. I see Louisville charging ahead after surviving a scare against South Florida last week.

The pick: Louisville 28-21

#11 Mississippi State +24 at #1 Alabama

Mississippi State is 7-0, but a huge underdog.

Mississippi State wants to claim that it is a real threat in the SEC, but this line from Vegas says otherwise. Yes, the Bulldogs are 7-0, but they have zero impressive wins. Alabama may not have a marquee schedule so far either, but the Tide has looked impressive every week. I think 24 points is a lot to lay, so I'll say Mississippi State stays within 3 touchdowns, but that's about as far as I'll go. Alabama is clearly a step above and will win comfortably.

The pick: Alabama 42-20

#2 Florida -6.5 vs #10 Georgia

Florida is one of the best teams in the country. Georgia could probably win every conference in America except the SEC. In the SEC this season, Georgia is the fourth best team on its best day. Florida can smell its SEC East crown, and I do not think the Gators slip up now. Florida not only wins, but I think it gets ugly.

The pick: Florida 38-17

#9 USC -6.5 at Arizona

I expect a lot of points in this one. USC's defense really hasn't been tested, and Arizona has put up over 100 points the last two weeks. USC will pull away in the end, but expect Arizona to hang around.

The pick: USC 45-36

Ohio State -1 at Penn State 

Bill O'Brien has done a nice job keeping Penn State above water this year, but this line did raise my eyebrows a little. Yes, Ohio State is technically unranked because of sanctions, but in the AP Poll, they are in the top ten. Braxton Miller's health is a concern, but Ohio State still has more talent on that depth chart. Ohio State has been sloppy, though, the last two weeks in wins over Indiana and Purdue. I think they'll be fine this week.

The pick: Ohio State 31-21

#7 Oregon State at Washington +4.5
Oregon State is playing really well, but the schedule so far makes you wonder how legit they will be once they start running into some of the better Pac-12 teams. If the tough, defensive-minded Washington shows up, this is the Beavers' toughest test yet. If the other Washington shows up, this will be an easy win for Oregon State. Like I said against USC, I think Washington will play well defensively at home. The Huskies are better than they've shown, and I'll take the upset.
The pick: Washington 24-21

Texas Tech at #3 Kansas State -7.5

Seth Doege could shift from dark horse to serious Heisman
contender if the leads the Red Raiders to an upset in Manhattan.

Texas Tech won an overtime thriller against TCU last week, but the Wildcats are a different animal. They have gone from a "good team that doesn't beat itself" to a legit national title contender. They already have road wins over Oklahoma and West Virginia, and at this point it would be a disappointment if they do not win the Big 12. Honestly, why can't this team be in the BCS title game? We'll deal with the BCS rankings debate later.
As for this week, I expect Heisman dark horse Seth Doege to play well, I expect Heisman front-runner Collin Klein to maintain his lead.
The pick: Kansas State 42-33

TCU +7.5 at Oklahoma State
TCU has shown a lot of fight the last couple weeks after the disappointing Iowa State loss. Trevone Boykin is settling in to the starting role, and TCU should be able to score on OSU. The Cowboys, meanwhile lost starting quarterback J.W. Walsh. Wes Lunt, who started the opener, returns under center. Lunt may or may not be completely healthy. I expect TCU to hang with the Cowboys in a shootout. Will it be enough to get a win in Stillwater? That might depend on who gets the ball last. I'll say TCU breaks through this week.
The pick: TCU 45-42

#5 Notre Dame +11 at #8 Oklahoma

The Irish defense, led by Te'o, is great, but will it be enough?

It's the big one. If Notre Dame wins, they are officially for real. If Notre Dame loses in embarrassing fashion, they could be viewed as a fraud that has beat up on overrated Big Ten teams. One thing I know about Notre Dame: the defense is honestly one of the best in the nation, at least the front seven is. They're fast, they get after the quarterback, and they are (for the most part) sure tacklers. That is why I don't see Oklahoma running away with this thing. I'll take the 11 points. The Notre Dame defense will not get embarrassed like Texas did.

However, I don't think the Irish will be able to move the ball against Oklahoma. Everett Golson not only has to play, he has to play extremely well. In big games this year, he hasn't. Tommy Rees has had to bail him out, and I don't see Rees doing well against the OU defense, either. The Irish defense will keep them in it, but OU will prevail.

The pick: Oklahoma 27-17

#22 Michigan +2.5 at Nebraska
Michigan struggled last week against Michigan State, but I don't expect Denard Robinson and this Wolverines offense to be that quiet two weeks in a row. Going to Lincoln will be a challenge for sure, but I simply like Michigan better top to bottom.
The pick: Michigan 27-24