College Football Picks - Week 8

I definitely came back down to Earth last week. I was a lousy 6-4 on winners and a blah 5-5 against the spread. I was proud of basically nailing the questionable lines on Louisville, Oregon State and Florida. That was completely canceled out, however, by having any faith in Texas or Tennessee. Lesson learned.

#17 Texas Tech -1.5 at #23 TCU
Another game I lost big on last week was TCU. After the Frogs' awful performance against Iowa State, I really thought they were done for the year (because of all their injuries and the loss of Casey Pachall), and that they might struggle to get to 6 wins. They responded with an impressive win over Baylor. So, I learned they may not be dead. I also learned that TCU tailback Aundre Dean can make a... um... sweet (?) rap video.
So, do I put faith in TCU at home now against a much better Texas Tech team? Toughest call of the week really. I'm trying to come up with a good reason to go with the Frogs at home, but I'm struggling. They gave up a lot of yards to Baylor, and the game was won on turnovers. I don't think Tech will be that sloppy, and I definitely know Tech has a defense that will challenge Trevon Boykin more than Baylor did. Tech wins a close one.
The pick: Texas Tech 31-28

BYU at Notre Dame -13.5

Could  Te'o and the Irish get caught looking ahead to OU?

This screams trap game, doesn't it? Notre Dame should beat BYU. Actually, Notre Dame should crush BYU. The Cougars, who were actually a respected team in the preseason, haven't beaten or even really performed well against any quality opponents. You just wonder if this is the game when the talent people thought BYU had in the preseason shows up. As Arkansas has shown, though, if the talent people talked about in the preseason hasn't shown up yet, it's not going to.
On the Notre Dame side, it's the valley game. Coming off an emotional OT win over Stanford and the week before what could be a Top 10 showdown with Oklahoma, the Irish could easily be caught in a letdown/look ahead scenario.
With this defense that hasn't allowed a touchdown since September 8, I can't see it. Maybe the offense is sluggish, especially if Everett Golson does not play or is limited. Tommy Rees has proven to be a capable, backup, though. Regardless, I think the defense brings it once again.
The pick: Notre Dame 24-9

South Carolina +3.5 at Florida
There is no team in the country with a tougher three-game stretch than the South Carolina Gamecocks in October: Georgia, at LSU, at Florida. That's brutal, especially for a team that has legit BCS talent.
After a tough loss in Death Valley last week, I want to say that South Carolina bounces back. Then comes the news that Marcus Lattimore might not play. That makes this call even tougher. If he plays and he's right, he could make a big difference. Plus, Spurrier also said this week that Jadeveon Clowney has a sore foot and has been limited. Is this gamesmanship? Because if he's messing with me and these guys come out and play like All-Americans, I'm going to be upset. As it is, it's hard for me to take South Carolina at less than 100%, even though I think (when healthy) the Gamecocks are one of the best teams in the nation.
The pick: Florida 24-21

South Florida at Louisville -6.5
It's a game of a team I've lost faith against the team I still firmly believe will win the conference. USF fans are ready to fire Skip Holtz as the concerns over the team's play and perceived preparedness grow every week. Louisville is simply the best team in the Big East and should be strong at home. Better players, better team, Papa John's Cardinal Stadium.
The pick: Louisville 42-28

LSU -3.5 at Texas A&M

Johnny Manziel has some talking Heisman. I say slow down.

"Johnny Football" has had a nice little run. Aggie freshman Johnny Manziel has put up some amazing stats to lead A&M to a 5-1 start. He's even being mentioned in the Heisman conversation.
It's time to pump those brakes. He faces a defense that is quite superior to Louisiana Tech, SMU, and Arkansas. LSU is one of the best teams in the country. Texas A&M, quite simply, is not. LSU will win this game, and I don't think it will be close.
The pick: LSU 30-14

Kansas State +2.5 at West Virginia
I didn't pick the West Virginia game last week, and I'm glad I didn't. Wow. Did that team get exposed or what? The Mountaineers' defense is horrible, and Kansas State is the type of team that will zero in on your weaknesses and make you pay for them. I doubt Geno Smith has two horrible games in a row, but I think the WVU defense will have another bad week. Look for Collin Klein and the KSU offense to dominate time of possession. Smith can't score if he's on the sideline.
The pick: Kansas State 35-30

Michigan State at Michigan -10
These two teams were both in the top ten at one point this year. Neither is ranked at the moment, but I think the pollsters have been a bit harsh on Michigan. The Wolverines' two losses have been to seemingly unbeatable Alabama and to fifth-ranked Notre Dame (a game in which the Wolverines had a ridiculous six turnovers and only lost by 7). Michigan has talent and can put points on the board against most teams. Michigan State has proven to be a disappointment, at least offensively. I think Sparty takes a beating in Ann Arbor.
The pick: Michigan 38-21

Stanford -2.5 at Cal
Stanford lost a tough one at Notre Dame on a controversial ending. I felt for Stepfan Taylor, as I thought did get into the endzone on that fourth down. That's in the past, though. The Cardinal has a really tough defense, and I think it will show up against a hated rival. Stanford bounces back this week.
The pick: Stanford 17-14


Washington +7.5 at Arizona

I didn't expect Arizona to be this big of a favorite. Washington played well defensively but just couldn't outscore USC this week. I expect a similar outcome in Tuscon this week, where Arizona has been pretty tough. The Wildcats will win, but Washington will hang around.

The pick: Arizona 31-24

UL-Monroe +3.5 at Western Kentucky

There's still room on the Kolton Browning bandwagon.

Two Sunbelt Conference teams that had big SEC wins earlier this year (ULM over Arkansas and WKU over Kentucky) meet this week in a game that could decide the conference. A nice little tidbit from Brett McMurphy this week: Western Kentucky has covered in 14 straight games. I've been on the Kolton Browning bandwagon this long. I'm not jumping off now.
The pick: UL-Monroe 28-27