College Football Picks - Week 6

It was another respectable week picking winners (7-3) but another rough time with the spread (4-6). Although, if it hadn't been for last second touchdowns by Cincinnati and Oregon State, it would have been a 9-1 week on the winners. Whatever.

I'm going with an usual number of underdogs this week. Hold on to your you-know-whats.

#24 Northwestern +2.5 at Penn State
This line surprised me a little. Northwestern is ranked, but the Wildcats have beat up some blah teams (Vanderbilt, Syracuse, Indiana). On the other hand, is Penn State getting too much credit for wins over Navy, Temple and Illinois? I'm going to put a little faith in Pat Fitzgerald and say Northwestern goes into Happy Valley focused.
The pick: Northwestern 24-21

Vanderbilt +7 at Missouri
I had to pick the James Franklin Bowl. Missouri QB James Franklin hasn't had a great start to his season, but opening SEC play with Georgia and South Carolina will do that. He looked better against UCF last week. Vanderbilt coach James Franklin also saw his team lose to South Carolina (close, 17-13) and Georgia (48-3 blowout). Both of these teams look at this game as a must-win to stay relevant in the SEC East or risk finishing in the basement with Kentucky. I think the home field gives the Tigers the edge, but it will be close.
The pick: Missouri 27-24

#4 LSU at #10 Florida +2.5

LSU has looked sloppy. Will the Mad Hatter clean things up?

It's a road game in the SEC, and it's a very tough one. Florida is building some confidence, and I'm not sure I trust LSU right now. The Tigers looked sloppy against Towson. If you want to say that was a fluke because they weren't focused against a lousy opponent, then how do you explain the 12-10 win at Auburn? LSU should have blown out War Eagle and didn't. This is a tougher road game than that. LSU might wake up a little, but I don't think it will be enough in the swamp.
The pick: Florida 21-20

#17 Oklahoma -6 at Texas Tech
Is Lubbock a house of horrors for the Sooners? Sure. Was OU overrated to start the season? Yes. I still expect them to beat the Red Raiders by more than a possession. Sure, Tech is 4-0, but they have beat up on some weak teams. OU doesn't have any wins to brag about either, but Bob Stoops has had two weeks to figure some things out. I think the Sooners will be okay this week.
The pick: Oklahoma 38-28

UL-Monroe -3 at Middle Tennessee
Oh, yeah. I'm throwing some Sun Belt out there this week. The battle-tested ULM Warhawks step into conference play against Middle Tennessee. The Blue Raiders had a nice win of their own last week as they defeated Georgia Tech. ULM's win over Arkansas and close loss to Baylor certainly opened a lot of eyes. I'm a big believer in ULM QB Kolton Browning, and he'll get it done again.
The pick: UL-Monroe 34-28

#5 Georgia at #6 South Carolina -1 
It may be too early to call this game a national quarterfinal, but we may look back at this game in November that way. The winner of this game is suddenly the favorite in the SEC East (with Florida still in the way). Obviously, the SEC East champ likely gets the Alabama/LSU winner, and the winner of the SEC should very likely be in the national championship game.
This game is so tough to call. I think that South Carolina has the superior defense, and that might be the difference. The other big factor for me, though, is which quarterback I trust more. That answer is Aaron Murray. He's no Joe Montana, but I like his experience and his accuracy in this setting. Then there's one more factor: Georgia was just hit with the news that leading Michael Bennett tore his ACL and is out for the year. I have to go with the healthier home team.
The pick: South Carolina 27-21

#8 West Virginia +6.5 at #11 Texas

Geno Smith was amazing against Baylor. How will he
fare against a much tougher Texas defense, though?

I was impressed with Texas last week (even though they got the benefit of a bad call at the end), but I was more impressed with Geno Smith. Rip Baylor's defense all you want. The man completed 45 of 51 passes for 656 yards and 8 touchdowns. Just read that again. Wow.
I've been very impressed with David Ash's progress at quarterback, but his challenge is greater this week. Oklahoma State definitely showed that the Texas defense is not invincible. West Virginia runs a similar look and might run it better. He won't throw for 600 yards or 8 touchdowns, but Geno Smith will put up plenty of points, and I think Texas will have a hard time keeping up.
The pick: West Virginia 42-34

Miami (FL) +13 vs #9 Notre Dame at Soldier Field
I never thought I'd say this, but Notre Dame's defense is great. It really is. Manti Te'o may still be a longshot for the Heisman, but the fact people are even suggesting it tells you how great he's been. He's a top ten pick in the NFL Draft for sure.
The bad news for the Irish: Miami's offense is clicking after a rough start. Notre Dame's isn't. The Irish defense will be a rude awakening for the 'Canes, but the question for me is if Notre Dame can score enough. I think they will, but I think 13 points is too big of a spread.
The pick: Notre Dame 24-14

#21 Nebraska at #12 Ohio State -3.5
Ohio State looks pretty strong. The Buckeyes might go unbeaten in the Big Ten. Too bad they can't go to the championship game. They have to get past the Cornhuskers first, though, and I think that's pretty doable at home. Nebraska's slow start against a struggling Wisconsin team was troubling. If that happens in Columbus, it could ugly. Nebraska will hang around, but look for the Buckeyes to pull away in the fourth.
The pick: Ohio State 35-24

#23 Washington at #2 Oregon -24.5
That's a big line for Oregon. Are the Ducks that good? Yes, I think they are. They're fast, they're talented, and they're well coached... and they're at home. The Ducks will pull away late to cover.
The pick: Oregon 49-24