College Football Picks: Week 6

It was an above average week as I went 7-3, but on a couple the games I missed, I was way off. South Florida was brought down to earth, and it's now obvious to me that Ohio State is in rebuilding mode. No picks for those teams this week, but we do start with another one of my most anticipated games of 2011.

Wouldn't it be a shame if this rivalry ever went away because of realignment?

The locals

#3 Oklahoma vs #11 Texas

There’s no science to it, but every college football fan knows that anything can happen in a rivalry game like this one. A win by the Longhorns changes everyone’s perspective about this program, and the people wondering in the offseason if Mack Brown would be out by the end of the year would look pretty foolish.

While the rivalry element does factor into my pick slightly, it doesn’t factor as much as the overall talent. I subscribe to the old saying that if a team says it has two quarterbacks, it really doesn’t have one. Oklahoma has its guy. Texas doesn’t. Texas looks like it's improving, but are these young Longhorns ready to take over the Big 12? I'm not so sure. When it comes to crunch time, OU knows who is getting the ball. I’m not sure Texas does. The Longhorns will give the Sooners a fight like always, but I think Jones and that offense will make plays when they need to.

The pick: OU 31-23

#6 Oklahoma State vs Kansas

Poor Kansas. The Jayhawks had a lead last week against Texas Tech before the Red Raiders’ offense woke up to rally past KU for a 45-34 win. If Turner Gill and company thought that offense was tough, they haven’t seen anything yet. A well-rested Cowboys team should be able to score at will this Saturday in Stillwater. I’m looking for Weeden and Blackmon to put up plenty of gaudy stats early before sitting out in the fourth quarter as OSU looks ahead to Texas next week.

The pick: OSU 52-17

The valley game

Missouri at #20 Kansas State

Kansas State is coming off a big win over Baylor (when has anyone ever said “big win over Baylor?"). Now, the Wildcats have a ranking and some momentum in their corner. Unfortunately for them, I expect K-State to lose this week. I’m not sure the Wildcats can keep up the same intensity two weeks in a row. Don’t let the rankings fool you. Missouri has talent (they better if they want to play in the SEC, but that's a topic for another blog). Ask the Sooners about what the Tigers are capable of. Mizzou put up a pretty good fight in Norman before the Landry Jones rallied OU to a 10-point victory. Missouri has had a week off to prepare for this one, and I think James Franklin is ready for a breakout game.

The pick: Missouri 28-24

The team to beat

#17 Florida at #1 LSU

Tyrann Mathieu is this year's defensive dark horse
for the Heisman, and a big reason LSU is number one.

This game might be a little more exciting if Florida hadn’t lost quarterback John Brantley to a leg injury, but my pick really wouldn’t change. LSU has proven week after week it is one of the elite teams in the country. The defense is as talented as I’ve seen in Baton Rouge, and that’s saying a lot. Tyrann Mathieu, just a sophomore, has entered his name as the wild card defensive player in the Heisman trophy race. I think we’re all counting down to that LSU-Alabama showdown in November that should have a national semifinal feel. I think this banged up Florida team will just be a bump in the road for the Bayou Bengals.

The pick: LSU 38-24

Refusing to lose

#15 Auburn at #10 Arkansas

Auburn just seems to be that team that plays to the level of its competition, yet keeps finding ways to win. War Eagle knocked off previous number 10 South Carolina last week and now faces another number tenth-ranked team. Like South Carolina, I think being ranked tenth may be a bit high for Arkansas. However, I am a little more impressed with the Hogs than I am South Carolina. Led by Tyler Wilson, Arkansas rallied for a big win over Texas A&M last week, and I look for Wilson and that offense to continue their excellent play at home this week.

The pick: Arkansas 31-24

Toughest pick of the week

Georgia at Tennessee

Is it time to believe in Georgia or not? After a pair of tough losses to good teams (Boise State and South Carolina), the Bulldogs have stepped up offensively and defensively by winning two SEC games (Ole Miss and Mississippi State). What next, though?

Tennessee is tougher to read as the Vols lost by just 10 at Florida but have no really impressive wins outside of that (Montana, Cincinnati, Buffalo). For what it’s worth, Tennessee’s offense was really clicking last week against Buffalo. Like most teams in college football, the Vols should be tough at home, but Georgia’s defense is not Buffalo’s defense. It’ll come down to the very end, but I think the Bulldogs are playing really well after a frustrating start.

The pick: Georgia 21-20

Rude welcome

#22 Arizona State at Utah

Utah appears to be in for a rough welcome to the Pac-12. This isn’t Utah’s strongest team. The Utes lost by 17 last week to Washington to drop to 0-2 in their new conference. Now, a more talented Arizona State team comes to visit. I like the Sun Devils’ offense, and they should be able to score enough points on the road, even if the ASU defense isn’t perfect.

The pick: Arizona State 41-27

Redemption

Miami at #21 Virginia Tech

David Wilson won't let Tech drop two in a row at home.

While I did pick Virginia Tech to lose last week, I did not think the Hokies would look as helpless as they did against Clemson. Only 125 yards passing, two turnovers, and just three points on the board. I expect them to rebound this week. Miami’s win over Ohio State doesn’t look as impressive now that we’ve seen how mediocre the Buckeyes are. Look for Hokies running back David Wilson to have a big week. He had 123 yards rushing last week while the passing game struggled. If Virginia Tech can open up the passing game a little more, Wilson should have plenty of room to run.

The pick: Virginia Tech 28-20

Legends vs Leaders

Iowa at Penn State

The Hawkeyes are “Legends” and the Nittany Lions are “Leaders” for those who keep track of such things. Iowa opens up Big Ten play on the road in Happy Valley, where Penn State is sitting at 1-0 in the conference after slipping past lowly Indiana last week. Iowa quarterback James Vandenberg (not to be confused with James Van Der Beek) has proven to be a pretty efficient passer as he’s completed 62 percent of his passes and only has one interception. Penn State continues to rotate quarterbacks, and while it’s worked to an extent, it’s still not something I can get behind. I think Vandenberg will make enough plays late in the game to pull it out.

The pick: Iowa 21-17

The SEC of FCS?

#9 William & Mary at #11 Delaware

If there’s one thing I’m learning about FCS, it’s that the Colonial is the dominant conference. Five of its 11 members are ranked in the latest Top 25 with two more coming in 26^th and 27^th in the voting. As for the Tribe and the Blue Hens, both of these teams need this one to stay in the conference title hunt. Delaware is hurting a bit after being upset by Maine and falling from fifth in the poll. The Blue Hens will turn it around.

The pick: Delaware 33-30

You may now go back to speculating about how Missouri will fare in the SEC.