College Football Picks: Week 5

Boom! That was the week I’ve been waiting for. I not only went 9-1, but I was also very close to the correct score in the TU/Boise State game. Overall, it was a great week that also had a stay of execution for the Big 12 and probably the greatest Twitter rant of all time from Fake Dan Beebe. (Seriously, if you have a few minutes to kill and you can handle the language, go back to September 22 and read all 41 tweets that are in all caps. Yes, I counted.)

Celebration time is over, though. Now, I get to pick a really tough week with a lot of games featuring ranked teams that could go either way. Fortunately, I (hopefully) get a couple of lay-ups with the local games.

The locals

#2 Oklahoma vs Ball State

I feel cheap picking a game with a 39-point spread, so I guess the question is really whether or not OU covers. The defense is out to make a statement after some Sooner fans are pointing at the defense as the reason they dropped a spot in the AP poll. I think Stoops and Venables get some things figured out, and the defense has a great game. Plus, there’s no reason to be concerned about Landry Jones and the offense. Plenty of points, plenty of defense. OU wins and covers.

The pick: OU 52-10 (Sooners cover)

Tulsa vs North Texas

Kinne and  the Golden Hurricane
(hopefully) finally get a break with North Texas.

The Tulsa spread is also pretty big at 23 points, and the Golden Hurricane could certainly use an easy win after playing three top 10 teams this month. From the “useless yet slightly interesting information” department: North Texas and Ball State do have one thing in common: they both have a win over Kevin Wilson’s Indiana Hoosiers.

G.J. Kinne surprised me by taking the field last week with his injured knee. He struggled, and I wonder how much he’ll play in this one. He’ll almost certainly play, but TU should have enough talent to handle North Texas without him. Look for Kalen Henderson to get plenty of snaps, and I think the running game should lead TU to a confidence-boosting win after a brutal September slate.

The pick: Tulsa 38-17

Big East Battle

#16 South Florida at Pittsburgh (Thursday)

If you just look at common opponents, USF got five turnovers and beat Notre Dame in South Bend while Pitt fell to Notre Dame at home. I’ve been really impressed with South Florida’s ability to score, and I’m still not sure Pitt has the look of a conference title contender. I believe the Bulls do, and I think there’s a good chance their season finale against West Virginia could be for all the marbles in the Big East. USF has to get past this one first, and I think it will.

The pick: South Florida 27-20

SEC Separation

#3 Alabama at #12 Florida

It’s always a marquee game in the SEC, and it’s usually an early indicator of a top contender for not just the conference title, but also the national title. Florida’s offense has been scoring a lot of points under Charlie Weis, although it hasn’t seen a defense like Alabama’s. Alabama does have one impressive road win at Penn State, but with all due respect to Happy Valley, it’s not the Swamp.

It’s a statement game for both teams, but I lean slightly towards Alabama. Trent Richardson hasn’t gotten a whole lot of touches in the first four games, but he’s made an impact when he has. I’m looking for Alabama to get him involved early and often. Florida will be able to score some points, but I think the Crimson Tide defense will cause enough chaos to keep the Gators in check.

The pick: Alabama 28-24

Red Saturday

#8 Nebraska at #7 Wisconsin

Fans in Madison already know it, but the nation
will recognize Wilson as a Heisman contender soon.

I pegged this as a game to watch back in the preseason, and it’s shaping up to be exactly what I hoped it would: a showdown of top 10 teams with a LOT of red in the crowd. The two major factors I’m looking at are the two I usually look at first: home field and quarterback. Camp Randall will be rocking on Saturday night. Just ask the 2010 Ohio State team how crazy that place can get.

The quarterbacks, however, are the key to me. Taylor Martinez can be hot and cold, and while he can make plays with his legs, I think the Wisconsin defense will keep contained. Russell Wilson, meanwhile, is playing at close to a Heisman level, and he could really enter the discussion with a primetime victory over the Huskers. I think that’s what happens.

The pick: Wisconsin 31-24

SEC Preview

#14 Texas A&M vs #18 Arkansas (at Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, TX)

Well, Texas A&M’s move to the SEC is finally official, and the Aggies hope to celebrate by defeating an SEC team this week. It’s a little sad, but it’s probably true that Arkansas will be Texas A&M’s new main “rival” since it’s becoming pretty clear that the Aggies and Longhorns won’t play each other anymore.

Both teams are coming off tough losses, but Arkansas lost a game that most probably expected them to lose (at Alabama) while A&M let a home game against Oklahoma State slip away. It’s a neutral field that will probably have a few more Aggie fans than Hog fans, and I think Texas A&M will be out to prove they can move past last week’s collapse.

The pick: Texas A&M 33-30

Removing all doubt

#13 Clemson at #11 Virginia Tech

I’m sold on Clemson. The Tigers are a legit top 15 team, but are they top 10? Former Tulsa offensive coordinator Chad Morris has definitely made a difference as Clemson has put up a total of 73 points against Auburn and Florida State over the past two weeks. The only reason to doubt Clemson: all four of their wins have been at home.

Enter Blacksburg, where Virginia Tech is usually really tough to beat. The Hokies’ résumé, though isn’t as impressive as Clemson’s. While this isn’t a pick I feel entirely confident in, I think Tajh Boyd is really settling into this offense. I think the Tigers keep rolling and escape with a statement road win.

The pick: Clemson 35-31

Two end zones this year

Northwestern at #24 Illinois

Northwestern gets Persa back. Will he be enough?

This game was played last year at Wrigley Field, and it started out as a debacle with one end zone being taken out of play for safety reasons. That only led to one of my favorite moments from the 2010 season when Northwestern picked off a pass and scored in the end zone that was out of play, right where a fan was holding a “Wrong Way” sign. Great stuff.

Illinois is off to a hot start at 4-0, but Northwestern should get a lift from returning quarterback Dan Persa. It should be a good one, but I like the Illini at home.

The pick: Illinois 27-24

Unranked but not irrelevant

Michigan State at Ohio State

It’s weird not seeing a ranking next to Ohio State, but the Buckeyes’ 24-6 loss at Miami cost them a lot of respect. Michigan State was ranked at one time as well, but got embarrassed by Notre Dame and none of their wins are very impressive (Youngstown State, Florida Atlantic, Central Michigan).

Ohio State may not be great, but they still have plenty of talent and are always tough in Columbus. I’m not sure Michigan State has quite enough to get a tough road win like this one.

The pick: Ohio State 28-20

The Rio Grande Rivalry

New Mexico State at New Mexico

Only the fact that it’s a rivalry adds interest to the 1-3 Aggies visiting the 0-4 Lobos. New Mexico State has a win over Minnesota. New Mexico is coming off a loss to Sam Houston State. That’s about all the analysis we need for this one.

The pick: New Mexico State 31-28

I’ll leave you with this: It’s not a game I’m picking, but I have to bring up that Memphis is an 18-point UNDERDOG to Middle Tennessee State. I knew Memphis wasn’t very good, but has Tiger football gotten that awful? And they wonder why no major conferences want them. They should be thankful that they’re still welcome in Conference USA.