Week two was a slight improvement for me, as I was one game better at 7-3. All three of my losses were in arguably the tightest three games of the weekend (Notre Dame/Michigan, Georgia/South Carolina, and Mississippi State/Auburn). I’ll take that and look for continued improvement in Week 3. While the realignment chatter continues to dominate the headlines, I’ll pass on worrying about the future and just focus on the present. Here’s a look at this week’s games.
The locals
#1 Oklahoma at #5 Florida State
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| I'm pretty sure this FSU jersey is a hoax. At least, I really hope it is. |
The past is the past, though. What do these two teams bring to the table right now? The first thing that jumps out is the hideous uniform that FSU may or may not wear according to an internet rumor. (For the record, I think that’s a hoax. FSU fans are supposed to all wear crimson. I expect the team to do the same.)
On a serious note, the biggest thing that jumps out for me is the quarterback situation. Landry Jones is a serious Heisman contender with a lot of weapons. Meanwhile, this is the biggest stage that E.J. Manuel has seen. Manuel played pretty well, but not outstanding when filling for Christian Ponder last season in a critical late-season game at Virginia Tech (23 of 31, 288 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT in a 44-33 loss). Still, he at least has some big game experience, and he’ll have a rabid crowd behind him. That’s something to consider.
Even without Travis Lewis, I think the overall talent on the OU defense should be just enough to keep Manuel in check. By “in check,” I mean “stats not as great as Landry Jones’ stats.” It’s the toughest call of the week, but I think Dean Blevins said it best on Sunday night when he gave the Sooners a 50.001% chance of winning. I agree. It’s that close.
The pick: OU 31-30
#8 Oklahoma State at Tulsa
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| It's a 9 p.m. kickoff. That means Weeden2Blackmon all night. |
Tulsa’s brutal September slate continues with a home game against the Cowboys. Unfortunately for TU, I’ll bet there will be a lot more orange in Chapman Stadium than they would prefer. Tulsa rebounded nicely last week with a dominant win at Tulane. The Golden Hurricane has adjusted to life without Damaris Johnson, and other players are starting to settle into their roles. Bryan Burnham looked good last week with 97 yards receiving and two touchdowns against Tulane. He may be G.J. Kinne’s new top target.
OSU, meanwhile, is really clicking. Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon look like the All-American candidates that people expected them to be, and several other guys like Joseph Randle give that offense so many additional dimensions. The Pokes have looked dominant in two games against Louisiana and Arizona. While I don’t think TU will get dominated quite as badly as they did in Norman (for the reasons I stated previously), the Golden Hurricane is once again outmatched talent-wise. OSU should win comfortably.
The pick: OSU 40-20
Bonus OSU uniform prediction: All white: helmets, jerseys, pants.
The short week
#3 LSU at #25 Mississippi State (Thursday)
I’m a little surprised Mississippi State is a four-point favorite in this one. I guess that’s why I lose my shirt every time I go to a sports book in Vegas. The Bulldogs’ defense wasn’t exactly stout last week against Auburn. LSU, meanwhile, impressed me in the opener against Oregon. The offense moved the ball, and the defense forced key turnovers. Going on the road in the SEC is always tough, but I think LSU is elite. Mississippi State had a chance to take a step towards elite last week and came up short.
The pick: LSU 28-21
You are what you are
#15 Michigan State at Notre Dame
I’ve stopped believing in Notre Dame… for now. Two games: 1021 yards of offense, 10 turnovers, 0-2. You can make excuses like “if they don’t turn the ball over, they’re great.”
But as Bill Parcells would say, “You are what you are.” The Irish DO turn the ball over, and they do it a lot. Once is a fluke. Twice is a trend. I don’t think Notre Dame turns it all around in time for a team like Michigan State, a squad that has more talent than South Florida or Michigan. The good news for the Irish: the schedule gets a little more manageable after this, and if the team can improve the turnover problems in the long haul, eight wins could be realistic heading into the finale against Stanford. This game, though, won’t go well.
The pick: Michigan State 35-24
Sign of things to come?
#23 Texas at UCLA
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| Yes, Case McCoy and Jaxon Shipley are roommates. |
Remember last week when I (half) joked about Texas trying to seduce BYU into the Big 12 while the Cougars were in Austin? I wonder if Texas will head out to Los Angeles and start to wonder if this could be a place they’d be comfortable visiting regularly as Pac-16 members.
It wasn’t pretty, but Texas did escape with a win last week against BYU. The Longhorns’ quarterback situation is shaky to say the least. So is UCLA’s program. As questionable as the quarterback situation is in Austin, the defense has plenty of talent to shut down UCLA. The young Texas offense may struggle to score, but the good news is they won’t have to score very much.
The pick: Texas 20-14
The Ineligi-Bowl
#17 Ohio State at Miami (FL)
Plenty of funny names for this one: Ineligi-Bowl, The Benefits Bowl, The Replacements, whatever you want. Both of these proud programs are a mess right now and face a lot of uncertainty, almost as much uncertainty as I face with this pick. I’ve pretty much lost track of who’s playing and who isn’t. Jacory Harris returns for Miami, but I’ve never been a big believer in Harris. He’s athletic for sure. Put some pressure on the guy, though, and he’ll throw interceptions. He had four in last year’s loss in Columbus. I don’t think this is a good game for him to shake the rust off. I think Ohio State forces enough turnovers to escape Miami with the W.
The pick: Ohio State 27-24
Just getting started
#18 West Virginia at Maryland
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| Maryland has more fun helmets to show the world. |
The Dana Holgorsen era is off to a slow start despite the 2-0 record. The Mountaineers actually trailed Norfolk State at halftime last week before turning it around to blow out the Spartans 55-12. Perhaps that was the offense finally getting going?
With Maryland, it’s tough to evaluate the play on the field because I can’t get past those uniforms we saw in the opener. I’m anxious to see what the Terps bust out this week. Perhaps the turtle shell helmets will make an appearance? I hope so. Twitter blew up over the flag jerseys. Maybe Maryland is on to something. For better or for worse, people are talking about the program.
As for the game, Holgorsen is too good of an offensive coach to struggle for long. I think he got going last week, and it’ll pick up this week.
The pick: West Virginia 40-30
Now, do it on the road
#22 Arizona State at Illinois
Maybe the second-toughest call of the week behind OU-Florida State. I continue to be impressed with Arizona State quarterback Brock Osweiler, who had 353 yards and 3 touchdowns in an overtime win over previously ranked Missouri last week. Now, can the 6’8” gunslinger get a road win in Champaign?
It’s always tough for me to pick against fellow Rockhurst High School alum Nathan Scheelhaase, the Illinois quarterback. The sophomore is really coming into his own as a starter, and I’m sure he and his teammates are hungry for a statement win in the same way the Sun Devils were last week. This is a tough follow-up for Arizona State after a dramatic home win last week. I think Illinois wins a good one.
The pick: Illinois 31-28
Bluegrass Pillow Fight
Louisville at Kentucky
I normally pick one FCS game a week. This one might have the quality of an FCS game, if not a Division II game. Louisville got embarrassed on its home field last week by Florida International in a 24-17 loss. That game just a week after the Cards slipped past Murray State 21-9. Kentucky is currently 2-0, sporting a 14-3 win over Western Kentucky and a come-from-behind 27-13 win over Central Michigan. Neither one of these teams is very good, but Kentucky has a little bit more… I guess.
The pick: Kentucky 13-10
Big Sky Country
#10 Eastern Washington at #11 Montana
The defending FCS champions are 0-2 and are on the road for the third straight game this week, and another top FCS team awaits in Montana. Despite the rough start for the team with the ugliest turf in college football (maybe a reason why they've played on the road so much), I think Eastern Washington finally gets on the board this week.
The pick: Eastern Washington 30-27
Thanks for reading. Now, back to your realignment rumors and discussions.
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