It was another mediocre week with a 6-4 showing. It’s time to take a break from all the yelling and shouting about conference realignment to break down Week 4.
The locals
#7 Oklahoma State at #8 Texas A&M
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| The Aggies' combo of Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael could be trouble for an OSU defense that struggled last week. |
For the second straight week, the national game of the week (in my opinion anyway) involves an Oklahoma school. This is the biggest road test on the Cowboys’ schedule. The key for OSU has to be the ability to stop the run. Make excuses about the wet conditions and late start if you want, but the Cowboys’ tackling was sloppy against Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane piled up 365 yards rushing against OSU, and Texas A&M has a much more powerful rushing attack.
Brandon Weeden obviously has to be sharp like he was in the Arizona game. The Aggies will be able to control the clock with that running game, and OSU has to make the most of every possession. Watching Weeden and Blackmon the past two seasons, I feel pretty confident that the offense will be sharp, put points on the board and force A&M to throw the ball a little more than it would prefer. Although Ryan Tannehill has proven to be a very effective quarterback, I’m not sure he can win a shootout with Weeden. If A&M can control the ball and the clock, the Aggies will win. If OSU makes the most of each offensive possession and puts a lot of points up, the Pokes will win. I’ll lean toward the latter, but it’s close.
The pick: OSU 35-31
#1 Oklahoma vs Missouri
It’s the valley game for the Sooners. Coming off a huge win, they face a lesser opponent, but an opponent with enough talent to pull off an upset. If this game was in Columbia, I might say an upset is possible. In Norman, where Bob Stoops is 73-2, I highly doubt it. The offense looks great. While Missouri is improving week to week, the Tigers haven’t seen a team of this caliber yet.
The pick: OU 42-24
Tulsa at #4 Boise State
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| No G.J. Kinne? That's a big problem for TU. |
As I feared, the Golden Hurricane got blown out last week. Things went from bad to worse when G.J. Kinne injured his knee. His status is uncertain for this game, but I have to think he’s out if he has any kind of MCL injury. Kalen Henderson made a couple of nice throws, but the big concern is that he had five turnovers last week. Henderson is a talented young player, but he was clearly overwhelmed against Oklahoma State. It won’t get much easier against Boise State, where the Broncos can wear their blue jerseys on the smurf turf. The one encouraging thing TU has going for it heading to Boise is the previously mentioned 365 yards rushing it piled up on OSU. Maybe if TU can hold onto the ball and run a lot, they can hang with the powerful Broncos for a while. Unfortunately, Kellen Moore and company will likely be way too much. The bad news is that Tulsa is limping into another top opponent that should win comfortably. The good news is that the worst part of the schedule is over after this, and Tulsa can focus on competing in Conference USA.
The pick: Boise State 45-21
Game of the Week #2
#14 Arkansas at #3 Alabama
They’re both 3-0, but one has been a bit more impressive than the other. Alabama proved itself with a nice road win at Penn State, and Arkansas really hasn’t been tested yet (unless you call a 10-point home win over Troy “tested”). Alabama should have too much for the Hogs at home.
The pick: Alabama 33-24
Game of the Week #3
#2 LSU at #16 West Virginia
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| Jarrett Lee might be just enough to win LSU a title. |
Talk about a team that has passed some tests, LSU looks very strong. The season-opening win over Oregon was nice, and the road win over Mississippi State last week was also impressive because of the defensive effort. Dana Holgorsen has his offense in place at WVU, but I’m not sure he has all the talent in place for it to truly click on the level he wants. LSU’s defense is very strong, and it should disrupt West Virginia’s rhythm, and I think Jarrett Lee will make enough plays to give LSU another statement win.
The pick: LSU 28-24
The team I can’t quite figure out
Notre Dame at Pitt
I wanted to take a week off from picking Notre Dame, because I’m 0-3 with Irish picks so far this year. I suppose I should add that level of difficulty to this little game. Notre Dame is still sloppy, but the Irish overcame three turnovers last week to get past Michigan State. I think it’s clear what Notre Dame is: a talented offense that turns the ball over too much paired with a middle-of-the-road defense. If they turn it over, the game gets interesting. If they don’t, the offense should score more than the defense allows. Pitt is not a very strong team, sporting wins over Buffalo and Maine in addition to a loss to a mediocre Iowa team. Naturally, if Notre Dame limits its turnovers, the Irish should win. It’s just that simple.
The pick: Notre Dame: 30-21
The game formerly known as the Bowden Bowl
#11 Florida State at #21 Clemson
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| FSU's defense can win them the ACC. |
Last week, Clemson was very impressive in a win while Florida State looked pretty tough in a loss (defensively anyway). The Seminoles have a lot of talent, definitely enough to win the ACC. Clemson’s win over Auburn was nice, but we’re still not sure how great Auburn is. As long as FSU doesn’t feel sorry for itself after that tough loss to Oklahoma, I expect the ‘Noles to rebound this week.
The pick: Florida State 35-24
Bounce back or setback
#23 USC at Arizona State
Like I thought, Arizona State was humbled last week on the road at Illinois. Now, comes the real test: can the Sun Devils refocus and get a leg up on USC in the Pac-12 South race, or do they get caught reeling and lose their second straight? It may be early, but when you look at the rest of the Pac-12 South, it’s pretty weak. It’s not crazy to think the winner of this game could win the South. USC hasn’t been all that impressive this year with wins over Minnesota, Utah, and Syracuse. The Trojans look to be down a bit, but they still may have more talent than most teams in the Pac-12 South. Arizona State, though, has looked impressive at home. Even though he was a little off last week, Brock Osweiler's quarterback play has consistently been much better than his grammar. I think ASU will get the best of a modest USC team.
The pick: Arizona State 24-21
The other guys
Cal at Washington
On the other side of the Pac-12, the Bears and Huskies begin their battle to see who finishes third behind Oregon and Stanford in the North. Neither team sports an overly impressive win. Washington got run over by Nebraska last week as the Cornhuskers piled up 302 yards rushing. The Huskies were actually close in overall yardage (464 to 420), but their three turnovers kept giving momentum to Nebraska. I think Washington cleans it up at home and edges Cal.
The pick: Washington 28-27
The token FCS game
#13 Chattanooga at #3 Appalachian State
If Colorado-Colorado State is the Rocky Mountain Showdown, can we call this one the Appalachian Mountain Showdown? No? Okay. Last year, Appalachian State rallied from 21 down to defeat Chattanooga 42-41. That’s enough useless knowledge for this blog.
The pick: Appalachian State 45-38
Well, I’m off to review a few job applications. Just got one from a Daniel Beebe. He claims he has leadership skills.
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