College Football Picks: Week 8

Something I have in common with OU, OSU, and TU: we all had ugly wins last week. I went 7-3, but it certainly wasn’t pretty. A win’s a win, though. At least it wasn’t as ugly as all the realignment rumors and speculation.

As we enter the second half of the season, the games get more and more important as the national championship picture takes shape.

The locals

Texas Tech at #3 Oklahoma

Both the Sooners and Red Raiders have gotten scares from Kansas before pulling away for easy wins. The Sooners had to answer some questions about their lackluster performance in the red zone after last week’s game. I think their play will provide plenty of answers in Norman on Saturday. I highly doubt Oklahoma comes out sloppy two weeks in a row, especially at home. The Sooners should win comfortably.

The pick: Oklahoma 44-21

#4 Oklahoma State at Missouri

Whether Thayer Evans gives them credit or not, the Cowboys
force turnovers on defense. That helps them win.

I was a little disappointed in how a handful of OSU fans were griping online about an “ugly win” at Texas. The Cowboys won, didn’t they? And they won in a place where they have historically struggled. Take the win and be happy. Although, the fan reaction wasn’t nearly as surprising as a scathing article from Thayer Evans about Mike Gundy, which seemed to come out of nowhere considering what a solid season OSU is having. The idea that the Cowboys’ defense isn’t good because it benefits from turnovers is a bit flawed. Forcing turnovers is a product of an aggressive defense, a defense that doesn’t get enough credit for being as talented as it is. Saying that a defense isn’t good because it benefits from turnovers is like saying a baseball pitcher isn’t good because his opponents ground out all the time. Inducing ground balls is a benefit of keeping the ball down and pitching to contact. Getting turnovers is a benefit of pressuring the quarterback and being aggressive.

The harsh criticism could be a little bulletin board material for OSU this week. Missouri screams “trap game” to me. The Tigers have talent and could certainly put a scare into the Cowboys. This is an SEC team, right?

Despite what Evans thinks, I think OSU has the talent and the focus to get to the Bedlam game unbeaten. That includes surviving a road game against a talented, but certainly not great Missouri team.

The pick: Oklahoma State 35-28

Tulsa at Rice

After a slow start, Tulsa got rolling and cruised past UAB to even its record on the season. Playmakers are starting to emerge in the absence of Damaris Johnson. Clay Sears, Bryan Burnham, and Ja’Terian Douglas are all improving every time out.

Rice may be getting a boost as Sam McGuffie (a YouTube sensation in high school) is getting healthy, although his fumble last week did cost the Owls in their loss to Marshall. A road game is always tough, but the steady improvement I see every week from TU leads me to believe they’ll leave Houston with a victory, especially if they eliminate the turnovers that allowed UAB to hang around last week.

The pick: Tulsa 33-27

Trap game?

#20 Auburn at #1 LSU

This game didn’t make my list of top ten remaining games to look forward to, but it was in the discussion. While I’m sure Les Miles is working hard to make sure his team doesn’t look past Auburn, it is only human nature to be excited that the next game after this one is the highly anticipated showdown with Alabama. Auburn is dangerous simply because the Tigers are the opponent before the big opponent, and they have found ways to win some tough games against Florida, South Carolina and Mississippi State.

However, Auburn’s offense is struggling and the starting quarterback has yet to be named for this one. LSU’s defense might be the most talented in the country. This is not the time to try to figure things out offensively. Auburn’s defense might keep this one close for a while, but I don’t think War Eagle will be able to put many points on the board in Baton Rouge.

The pick: LSU 30-13

Warm up the bus

#6 Wisconsin at #16 Michigan State

It’s amazing that we are in late October, and there is a team that has not yet played a road game. Wisconsin is that team. The Badgers take their first road trip of the season Saturday, and it will be a tough one in East Lansing.

The reason Wisconsin is undefeated, though, is not because it has played every game at home. The reason the Badgers are undefeated is they are really, really good. They are the class of the Big Ten and should get past the Spartans. Even if they struggle early, the Badgers should pull away late. That offense is just too talented.

The pick: Wisconsin 38-24

So, you’re telling me there’s a chance?

USC at Notre Dame

If Floyd and the Irish get past USC, they could be back
in the BCS discussion entering their finale with Stanford.

It sounds crazy, but Notre Dame does have an outside shot at a BCS bid if it finishes 10-2. First things first, though: the Irish have to get past rival USC. The schedule really softens up between this game and the regular season finale against Stanford.

The Irish had a total of 10 turnovers in their first two losses. They have had a total of five in the four games since and none in their last two games. Basically, when Notre Dame doesn’t give the ball away, it can win. We’ll find out this week if the lack of turnovers is a result of the Irish improving or weaker opponents.

USC, though, isn’t nearly as strong now as it has been. Even though Matt Barkley is a top-flight NFL prospect, he isn’t surrounded by the same kind of NFL talent that Matt Leinart and Mark Sanchez were. The defense hasn’t been strong, either. Something I haven’t said in a long time: I think USC will have a tough time stopping the Notre Dame offense. Barkley will keep the Trojans in the game, but the Irish should win if they take care of the football.

The pick: Notre Dame 30-24

Beginning of the end?

#22 Georgia Tech at Miami FL

Georgia Tech looked like it could be a contender in the ACC a couple weeks ago. Suddenly, after being upset at Virginia last week, the Yellow Jackets are in danger of the wheels coming off pretty quickly. With another road test this week followed by home games with Clemson and Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech could find itself at 3-4 in the conference by mid-November. It wouldn’t be the first time this year a team’s season came crashing down in Atlanta.

The pressure is on the Jackets this week, and I think they respond. They’ll pressure Jacory Harris into mistakes and escape Miami with a win.

The pick: Georgia Tech 21-20

Remember them?

Cincinnati at South Florida

Speaking of wheels coming off, what has happened to South Florida? After a 4-0 start, the Bulls were on the verge of cracking the top ten before getting blown out by Pittsburgh. Now, they’re 0-2 in the Big East and fighting to stay in contention for the conference. Cincinnati opened conference play with a win over Louisville, but the Bulls are a different kind of challenge. USF has been sloppy for a couple weeks, but I still think the talent is there to make a run in the Big East. That run has to start this week, or it won’t happen at all.

The pick: South Florida 27-24

Pretender meets contender

#25 Washington at #8 Stanford

Washington has gotten off to a nice start in the Pac-12. The Huskies are 3-0 with wins over Cal, Utah, and Colorado. Now comes the real test: a trip to BCS contender Stanford (with Oregon lurking in two weeks). While I don’t think this trip will go well for Washington, don’t totally discredit the Huskies. They are having a nice season and have a good shot at finishing with nine or ten wins. This won’t be one of them.

The pick: Stanford 45-24

Because they’re due

#21 Penn State at Northwestern

Penn State’s offense has yet to really click, but its defense gets plenty of stops and keeps it in games, meaning the offense doesn’t have to do much to win. Northwestern, meanwhile, has a very good quarterback who can lead the team on impressive scoring drives. The Wildcat defense, however, hasn’t been able to get enough stops.

Throwing all statistical logic aside, I think Northwestern is better than 0-3 in the Big Ten, and I think Penn State is worse than 3-0 in the Big Ten. Dan Persa is due for a big win, and a home game against an overachieving Penn State team seems like a great opportunity.

The pick: Northwestern 24-21

My last fearless pick of the week: Northeastern State wide receiver Trey McVay won’t be as productive as he was last week. The Riverhawks’ star set an NCAA record with 425 yards receiving last week (not to mention school records with 6 touchdowns and 16 receptions in a game).