College Football Picks: Week 7

If you want 8 out of 10 football picks, I'm your guy. I went 8-2 for the fourth week in a row on winners. I'm sitting pretty at 47-13 on winners this year.

If you want great results against the spread, run away. I went a lousy 4-6 there to drop to 31-27-2. Ohio State's wild last second cover against Northwestern cost me a .500 week. But it cost other people a lot more. Oh well. On to this week's picks.

Arizona at USC (-6) (Thursday)
After a week off, the Trojans take the field with interim head coach Ed Orgeron. I'm not sure if the former Ole Miss head coach will fix anything or give the team any energy, but I don't think losing Lane Kiffin can hurt USC at all. Arizona at home is a very winnable game, and USC should be fine.
The pick: USC 27-17

Texas vs #11 Oklahoma (-14)

Could this be the end for Mack Brown?
Or could the shock us all with a win?

It's Mack Brown's last stand, and I think everyone knows it. Even Mack. I joked over the weekend that they couldn't set this line high enough for me. They didn't. Texas has had some its worst losses in this game under Brown (and against Stoops, of course): 63-14 in 2000, 65-13 in 2003, 55-17 in 2011 and 63-21 last year.
I think this year's Texas team is worse than any of those teams, and the Longhorns will be without starting quarterback David Ash. I asked a friend recently - a big Texas fan - what has gone so wrong for Mack Brown. He said Brown's biggest sin is that he is routinely outcoached by Stoops in this game and fails to adjust to the new wrinkles Oklahoma annually brings while also failing to bring any new wrinkles of his own. Texas fans are hoping freshman QB Tyrone Swoopes could be that x-factor. I don't see it.
OU under Stoops always gets up for this game. Texas under Brown has been hit or miss. Losing this game is one thing. Routinely being embarrassed by your powerhouse neighbors to the north in front of dozens of high-profile recruits is why Texas fans hate this game so much lately.
I fully expect Oklahoma to blow past this reeling Texas team and make Brown's exit from Austin all but guaranteed.
The pick: Oklahoma 56-13

#9 Texas A&M (-6) at Ole Miss
There's some upset potential here for A&M, because Ole Miss certainly has some talent. The problem, as we've discussed before, is that their talent is young. Things didn't go well for the Rebels against Alabama, and I don't think they'll go well here. While Ole Miss will score some points at home off that A&M defense, Manziel and the Aggies will pull away for the win.
The pick: Texas A&M 44-31

#5 Stanford (-9) at Utah
Possible letdown for Stanford? After escaping Washington last week, the Cardinal hit the road to take on a Utes team that's had a few extra days to prepare after a Thursday game.
That said, I (like many) believe Stanford is BCS-bound. They have some injuries - real or not - so that may slow them down, but I don't think the Cardinal will have too much trouble with Utah.
The pick: Stanford 38-24

#25 Missouri at #7 Georgia (-8)
A fully healthy Georgia team blows out Missouri in Athens, but the Bulldogs have been devastated by injuries recently. Three key players on offense are now out for the season (two last week plus Malcolm Mitchell), and Todd Gurley is still questionable with that ankle and Michael Bennett is also out for this game.
Georgia's defense, while not outstanding, is not missing the type of personnel that the offense is. Georgia's offense should keep Missouri from blowing up like it did against Vanderbilt last week. The question is if Aaron Murray and the Dawgs will score enough points. I think they will, but it might not be pretty.
The pick: Georgia 31-21

#17 Florida at #10 LSU (-7)

Tyler Murphy gave Florida a spark. Can he win in Death Valley?

Speaking of SEC teams hurt by injuries, the Gators are missing key players on both sides of the ball, including starting QB Jeff Driskel. Tyler Murphy played well in his place against Arkansas, but this trip to Baton Rouge will really test him and Florida. LSU is one of the top teams in the country, and the Tigers have their eyes on the SEC Championship (even if everyone assumes Alabama will win the SEC West over them and Texas A&M). I'm expecting an impressive effort from an always-improving Zack Mettenberger and LSU.
The pick: LSU 35-17 

#2 Oregon at #16 Washington (+14)
Even in defeat, Washington proved last week that it is a legit threat to get into the BCS. The Huskies went toe-to-toe with one of the nation's elite on the road and almost got a victory. Now, however, they face a critical game with Oregon. They need this win or the BCS is likely out of reach. A 14-point spread against a legit top 15 team at home seems like a lot, but maybe not against a team like Oregon.
The uncertain status of D'Anthony Thomas has me concerned for the Ducks, though. Their high-powered offense should be enough to get a win, but it won't be easy. Physical teams like Stanford and SEC opponents have slowed down Oregon in the past. The Huskies will hang around.
The pick: Oregon 38-31

#19 Northwestern (+10.5) at Wisconsin
Speaking of teams who looked great in defeat, Northwestern almost took down mighty Ohio State last week. The question now: are they confident or devastated moving forward? I don't think Pat Fitzgerald will let his guys be mentally weak. Vegas, however, seems to think Northwestern is in for a beating.
I not only think the Wildcats will hang with Bucky at Camp Randall, I'll take the Wildcats for an upset win, which would be their first in Madison in 13 years.
The pick: Northwestern 31-28

#14 South Carolina at Arkansas (+6)

Will Clowney be on the field or sideline this week?

South Carolina should be on upset alert. Going on the road with the apparent turmoil surrounding Jadeveon Clowney's willingness to play? Dangerous. Unfortunately for Arkansas fans, I don't think Arkansas is quite good enough to take down this SC team. They may hang around, but South Carolina will win close... and ugly.
The pick: South Carolina 27-24

#18 Michigan (-2.5) at Penn State
While the Wolverines had some close calls in September, they are still unbeaten. Penn State isn't, and the Nittany Lions are coming off a rough loss to Indiana. After a couple close calls, Michigan woke up a little and blew past Minnesota. The line seems low to me, and I think Michigan will keep improving leading up to the big rivalry game with Ohio State.
The pick: Michigan 35-27