College Football Picks: Week 5

The recent trend continues, as I did well on winners (8-2) but was once again .500 against the spread. Overall, it was a big week for chalk: 57 of 59 FBS games were won by the favorites. The only two losers: Arkansas State and BYU. Yep, both picked by me.

It might not get much better this week as there are a few-head scratching lines that could make or break me this week... probably break.

Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech (-7) (Thursday)
In the past, I've always given Virginia Tech the benefit of the doubt despite slow starts. I always think the Hokies will be in the ACC title mix, but I'm not so sure this year. VaTech has looked very sluggish so far. Georgia Tech, meanwhile has looked very impressive with the nation's fourth-ranked rushing attack (albeit against a modest schedule).
Since they're on the road, I think the frustrating downhill slide continues for the Hokies.
The pick: Georgia Tech 31-21

Iowa at Minnesota (+1)
I'm picking this game because why not. I'll take a one-point home 'dog. Minnesota has played a pretty weak schedule, but the Gophers are 4-0 and have run the ball well. I'll take them over a team that will likely finish in the middle of the Big Ten with them.
The pick: Minnesota 24-21

#6 LSU at #9 Georgia (-3)

Todd Gurley and the Bulldogs face their third top ten team.

This is the toughest game of the week for me to call. LSU's offense is better than it has been in recent years, although maybe the defense may be a step behind. Not much, though.
Zach Mettenberger (who first enrolled at Georgia before being kicked off the team) looks like he may have turned a corner for LSU, but his hot-and-cold play in 2012 still makes me a little nervous for the Tigers.
Georgia plays so well at home, and that offense can score on anyone. The pressure is really on Georgia here, though. They want a national title, and this is the end of a brutal first month for them. If they can somehow get a win, their schedule gets really soft after this. Georgia could realistically expect to finish the regular season 11-1, which means they'll win the SEC East and have a shot to win the league. Lose this game, though, and it's almost impossible for a two-loss team to play in the national championship game.
On a neutral field, I think LSU might be a shade better. In Athens, I'll take the Dawgs.
The pick: Georgia 35-31

Arizona at #16 Washington (-7.5)
It's two 3-0 teams in the Pac-12 opening up conference play. Granted, their schedules haven't been that outstanding, but both of these teams are in the top ten in the nation in rushing yards and scoring defense (Arizona is 5th and 3rd, respectively, while Washington is 9th and 8th). Washington is at home, and the Huskies' impressive dismantling of Boise State definitely makes me agree with Vegas.
The pick: Washington 35-27

#21 Ole Miss at #1 Alabama (-17)

Nkemdiche and the young Rebels face their biggest test yet.

Ole Miss brought in a star-studded recruiting class so it could compete with the big boys of the SEC. So far, the young kids have looked really good, but this is a big step up from Vanderbilt and those struggling Longhorns.
If this was Alabama's first game right after Texas A&M, I'd say there would be some letdown potential here. But, it's not. So, I won't. The Ole Miss freshmen might get a little wide-eyed in Tuscaloosa, and Alabama will be dialed in.
The pick: Alabama 42-21

USC at Arizona State (-6)
I can keep this short: USC has yet to look impressive. Arizona State looks like it should be competitive in the Pac-12 (albeit a clear step behind Stanford and Oregon). The Sun Devils are at home and should be able to outscore the inconsistent USC offense.
The pick: Arizona State 27-17

#10 Texas A&M (-3) at Arkansas
This is the head-scratching line of the week. The wise guys in the desert must know something I definitely don't. Texas A&M is one of the best teams in America, and Arkansas lost to Rutgers last week. I don't see how this is a three-point game. I was thinking more like a three-possession game. We'll see, but I'm going with my gut: A&M is way, way better.
The pick: Texas A&M 45-21

#14 Oklahoma (-3.5) at #22 Notre Dame

Blake Bell has a chance to shine for the Sooners in South Bend.

This line also looks a little low to me. Notre Dame has not looked impressive through four games. Oklahoma, coming off a bye, may be hitting its stride. The Sooners unleashed Blake Bell two weeks ago against Tulsa and discovered that he actually can pass the ball quite well. I saw a friend make this point on Twitter: Collin Klein couldn't throw well, yet he dominated the Big 12. Blake Bell can be successful if he's not restricted, and I think Oklahoma has discovered that. Bell's mobility will cause a lot of problems for Notre Dame, and I think Tommy Rees will have a really tough time against the Sooners' defense. Will this be the game that forces Brian Kelly to look at another quarterback? Maybe, maybe not. I do, believe, however, that the Sooners will win this game with relative ease.
The pick: Oklahoma 35-20

#12 South Carolina (-7) at UCF
This line also looks a tad low. The 12th-ranked team in the country, an SEC team at that, going up against an AAC team? Sure, UCF may be one of the better teams in the AAC, but I can't imagine they'd stay within a touchdown of South Carolina by the end of the day.
The pick: South Carolina 35-24

#23 Wisconsin (+7) at #4 Ohio State
This is one of the few games on Ohio State's schedule in which the Buckeyes will truly be tested. Wisconsin's running game has proven to be very strong, and Melvin Gordon may be a star in the making in Madison. The Badgers' running game should keep the Buckeyes' offense on the sideline more than they're used to. The game will be close, but Ohio State will survive.
The pick: Ohio State 24-21

Hopefully, I finally snap this funk against the spread. After all, all bad things must come to an end.