College Football Picks: Week 4

Good news: It was another solid week on winners as I went 8-2.
Bad news: Still struggling against the spread: 5-5.

But at least I didn't insult my readers.

It's a very underwhelming slate of games this week, but I'll give it a shot.

Boise State at Fresno State (-3.5) (Friday)

Friday night is a good chance to watch Derek Carr of
Fresno State if you haven't seen him yet. Pretty good QB.

There should be plenty of points in this one. While Boise State's offense has been always been successful under Chris Petersen, Fresno State's Derek Carr is off to a nice start for Fresno State (661 yards, 8 TD, 1 INT). I did say earlier this season that the Boise State "magic" is gone, but this game isn't about magic. They're two pretty evenly matched teams. I do like the Bulldogs at home, though.
The pick: Fresno State 38-31

Tennessee (+17) at #19 Florida
Tennessee is coming off a crushing blowout loss at Oregon, but that happens to a lot of teams who go to Eugene. While Florida should absolutely win this game, a three-possession spread seems like a lot for a team with a struggling quarterback. Jeff Driskel has looked very average, and maybe a bye week will help him get back on track.
Florida's running game and defense should be enough to get the win, but I think Tennessee will keep it close.
The pick: Florida 24-14

North Carolina at Georgia Tech (-6)
Georgia Tech may quietly be a contender in the ACC. While Florida State and Clemson duke it out for the Atlantic Division, the Yellow Jackets are just as likely as anyone to win the Coastal. Granted, they've only played two games (against Elon and Duke), but still: 356 yards rushing per game and just 14 total points allowed are two very nice stats.
They may allow more than 14 in this game, but that rushing attack is really clicking, and I think Tech wins again.
The pick: Georgia Tech 30-17

Utah (+7) at BYU
As long as both teams are competent, I like to pick rivalry games to be close. BYU had an amazing showing against a bad Texas run defense two weeks ago, and the Cougars had last week off to get ready for this one. Utah will come with a much more balanced attack while BYU will run the ball, although unlikely with as much success as in the Texas game.
I'll take the Cougars' running game in a close one.
The pick: BYU 34-31

Utah State at USC (-6.5)
I'm down on USC as much as everyone else is, but 7 points still seems like a low number against Utah State. Even if the Aggies did put up 122 points in their last two games (52 on Air Force and 70 on Weber State), this should be a little bit of a different challenge. I expect USC's defense to play well, and the offense will build on last week's performance against Boston College.
The pick: USC 34-24

Michigan State at #22 Notre Dame (-6.5)
What to make of Notre Dame after a nail-biting win at Purdue? The offense clearly isn't as versatile with Rees as it was with Golson, and the losses of Manti Te'o and Kapron Lewis-Moore apparently have hurt the defense a lot more than I anticipated. The Irish are simply a top 25 team (maybe), not a top 10 team.
Can a top 25 team beat Michigan State by a touchdown at home? Probably. Connor Cook was recently named the MSU starter after giving the offense a spark last week. I don't think he'll outscore Notre Dame, though.
The pick: Notre Dame 30-21

Arkansas State (-4) at Memphis
Poor Memphis is still building. Despite having a QB who is easy to cheer for in Jacob Karam,  the Tigers just can't put a lot of points on the board right now. Bryan Harsin's Red Wolves can. They should be able to get at least a touchdown more than the Tigers.
The pick: Arkansas State 28-17

#23 Arizona State at #5 Stanford (-7.5)

Kevin Hogan and the Cardinal begin Pac-12 play this week.

Arizona State was beyond lucky to escape with a win against Wisconsin last week. A trip to Palo Alto against a team that could play for the BCS championship will not be quite as forgiving. Stanford hasn't been quite as dominant offensively as some predicted, but I'm confident the Cardinal will get better and better as the season goes along. Stanford will take care of business at home.
The pick: Stanford 33-24

Missouri (-5) at Indiana
Missouri should have enough talent to go to Indiana and win, but Kevin Wilson's offense is starting to click a little bit. The Hoosiers dropped 42 on a respectable Bowling Green squad and sit at 2-1 on the season. I keep waiting for that monster game from Missouri's Dorial Green-Beckham, and I think it's coming soon. He was the top overall recruit in America coming out of high school, and he'll break out sooner or later. Maybe he gets in the endzone a couple times to help Mizzou get comfortable road win.
The pick: Missouri 38-27

Kansas State (+5.5) at Texas
Can it get worse for Mack Brown? Oh yeah, especially when the Longhorns' nemesis, Kansas State visits. Even in down years, Kansas State always gives Texas tough time. While Texas is reeling, I think the athleticism of Texas will be enough to beat a Wildcats team that is lacking some punch, although K-State's offense has come around against some weaker opponents. They'll run  the ball and frustrate Texas by hanging around, but Texas really needs a win at home.
The pick: Texas 27-24

May the jinx of my picks not affect your favorite team. Enjoy the weekend.