College Football Picks: Week 3

It was a so-so showing last week: 7-3 on winners, but I watched in horror as I went just 5-5 against the spread. I was grumpier than Thayer Evans at an Oklahoma State pep rally.

So, my week wasn't great, but I can think of one or two guys who had worse ones. Let's hope this week goes better.

#24 TCU (-3.5) at Texas Tech (Thurs)

Baker Mayfield has been impressive for Texas Tech.

Very disappointing news for TCU over the weekend as Casey Pachall's season (and TCU career) may be in jeopardy. He suffered a broken (non-throwing) forearm and may miss eight weeks. Even if he returns, Trevone Boykin may be entrenched as the starter and Pachall may have to settle for spot playing time.
Texas Tech has a little bit happier QB situation: freshman walk-on Baker Mayfield has been outstanding. Yes, the competition has been bad, but 780 yards, 7 TD and completing over 71% is solid work.
Doing that against TCU's defense will prove much more difficult. Getting all the first team reps in practice should benefit Boykin, albeit in a short week. That part has me a little concerned, but I'll pick the Frogs to get a nice road win.
The pick: TCU 34-28

#7 Louisville (-13) at Kentucky
I include this game because it's the only remote possibility, in my opinion, that Louisville loses before December (at Cincinnati to close out the season). The schedule gets really soft in the American Athletic Conference after this. Louisville may win every game in October and November by 20+ points. Not that there's anything wrong with that.
This is a rivalry game on the road against an SEC team... an SEC team that lost to Western Kentucky. Louisville shouldn't be worried.
The pick: Louisville 40-14

Iowa at Iowa State (+2.5)
Well, it's a rivalry, but neither team has looked all that impressive so far. Iowa is 1-1 after losing to Northern Illinois and getting by Missouri State. Iowa State lost to Northern Iowa to begin the season.
With a bye week to prepare, I'll put a little faith in Paul Rhoades. This game may not be much to watch, but I'll take the home team.
The pick: Iowa State 17-14

#16 UCLA (+4.5) at #23 Nebraska
UCLA is playing with heavy hearts after wide receiver Nick Pasquale was killed in a car accident last week.
Tragedy aside, I do like this UCLA team. I think Jim Mora is doing a nice job, Anthony Barr is a difference maker on defense, and there are plenty of talented players on that offense. The Bruins have had an extra week to prepare for a road trip to Lincoln, and I think they'll really get after Taylor Martinez.
Nebraska will do fine in Big Ten play, but I think this may be the toughest opponent on their schedule (Michigan the other contender there. Nebraska does not play Ohio State in the regular season).
UCLA will go to Lincoln and get an impressive, hard-fought win.
The pick: UCLA 31-30

Boston College (+14.5)  at USC
USC is a two-touchdown favorite. That seems like a lot for a team that didn't even score two touchdowns against Washington State. The USC offense is a mess, and I can't help but wonder how long it will be before Lane Kiffin tries taking the redshirt of freshman Max Browne and throws him in at QB. While Browne may be a star one day, I don't think he would fix everything this year. On the other hand, he couldn't be less productive than the guys USC has been playing.
The Trojans should still win at home against an average Boston College team, but I'll take my chances with those 14.5 points.
The pick: USC 27-14

#1 Alabama (-7.5) at #6 Texas A&M

Can Manziel take down the giant again? I don't think so.

I had this as my most anticipated game entering the season, and I still basically feel that way. Thank goodness (for the fans' sake) Manziel is playing. It's what everyone has wanted to see: if lightning strikes twice and Manziel takes down mighty 'Bama again... or if Saban gets his revenge.
Unfortunately, I don't think this game will live up to the hype. Saban has had an extra week to prepare (forget the time he spent in the offseason). A&M's defense has had its question marks against Rice and Sam Houston State, and I think the Tide will move the ball very well. Manziel will have his moments, and the Aggies won't get embarrassed. In the end, though, A&M will have a tough time stopping Alabama.
The pick: Alabama 44-31

Georgia Tech (-8) at Duke
While I sang the praises of Duke as a slowly rising program last week (and they came through for me), that was against Memphis. This frustrating rushing attack of Georgia Tech presents a different challenge. Duke may hang around and get the home crowd excited, but I think Tech will quiet them in the fourth quarter.
The pick: Georgia Tech 41-31

#4 Ohio State (-15) at Cal
While I definitely think Cal has a rising star in QB Jared Goff, he won't be enough against these Buckeyes. Whether Braxton Miller plays or not, Ohio State should have no trouble scoring. Kenny Guiton has looked just as effective in relief. Goff may be a star eventually, but he may be in for a rough day against the Buckeyes' D. Ohio State will be just fine on their west coast trip.
The pick: Ohio State 35-17

Ole Miss (+4.5) at Texas

Texas could not make a tackle against BYU last Saturday.
How much will Greg Robinson help in just a week?

Breaking news/expert analysis: the Texas defense is pretty awful. I thought Texas wouldn't get truly exposed until the Oklahoma game, but the downfall of Mack Brown has started early this season. He "reassigned" (a fancy way of saying fired) defensive coordinator Manny Diaz after the BYU loss, but how much will Greg Robinson fix in a week?
I think the athletes on that Ole Miss offense could have a field day against Texas. Yes, the Rebels "only" won 31-13 against Southeast Missouri State, but they were up 31-0 and took their foot off the gas at halftime.
If you saw their opener against Vanderbilt, you know how explosive Ole Miss can be. Texas may be able to score a little, but it won't be enough. And the grumbling gets louder in Austin.
The pick: Ole Miss 38-31

#21 Wisconsin at Arizona State (-5.5)
These two teams have combined to destroy three lousy opponents 145-0 in the first two weeks of action. So this is the first legitimate game for both, making it hard to judge how good either team is. I lean towards the home team that has probably the most inspiring tunnel in college football.
The pick: Arizona State 31-24

Finally, I will keep an eye on the Oklahoma State game. Not because they're a 47-point favorite at Lamar, but by Saturday, a scathing Sports Illustrated report will be out. I'm sure OSU fans will proudly wear their orange and support the players, but a lot of questions will be asked. I'm curious what Mike Gundy says, whether his name is all over the report or not.

The game will be the easy part, but it will be a long week in Stillwater.