Chief Concerns

Thursday night was the most public of the Chiefs' many humiliations. In primetime in front of a national TV audience, NFL fans were forced to watch what Chiefs' fans have been forced to watch all season: perhaps the worst team in the NFL. The way things are going, they could be approaching historic futility.

Think I'm exaggerating? This team won't go 0-16, but they could set some pretty awful marks that will stand a long time.

The Chiefs are a mess, and it won't get any better this year.

They have not had a lead in regulation yet this year. The only time they've had a lead was in overtime when Ryan Succop kicked a game-winning field goal against the Saints. Beyond that, we've played 32 quarters of regular season football, and the Chiefs have not led for one second. Just digest that. They haven't even gotten a field goal to go up 3-0 in the first quarter. No leads. Ever.

The Chiefs' turnover differential currently sits at -20 through eight games. Since 1970, only the 1989 Lions were worse at -21, and that was for the entire season. Could you imagine if KC keeps up this pace and finishes at -40?

The 2008 Lions went 0-16 and are widely regarded as the worst team in NFL history. They had 29 turnovers the entire season. The Chiefs have 28 through eight games this year.

The 2008 Lions were outscored 517-266, a difference of 251 points on the year. Halfway through the season, the Chiefs have been outscored 240-133. That's a difference of 107. Thus, KC is on pace to be outscored by 214 points. That's a little too close for me.

How did it get this bad this fast? Two years ago, the Chiefs were in the playoffs at 10-6. Last year, Kansas City was pretty bad, but rallied late to finish 7-9 and be in the playoff race with two weeks to play. The defense played well enough to give people reason to believe that this team could be a couple wins better this year and maybe challenge for the AFC West.

Not so much. This team is awful, and it's hard to fathom how it got this pathetic. A team that was a win away from the playoffs last year only lost a few notable players (Brandon Carr was really the biggest departure) in the offseason. They added depth the offensive line in Eric Winston, and got two Pro Bowlers (Jamaal Charles and Eric Berry) back from injury.

Yet, somehow, this team is a disaster. Coaching has to be part of the problem. Romeo Crennel was given the head coaching job because the players liked him and the team played better after he was named the interim coach late last season. After firing a guy like Todd Haley who rubbed everyone the wrong way, Romeo was the players' coach that some thought could lead this team. They were wrong. He hasn't made a difference. Last year's late surge was more a result of the players playing loose with nothing to lose because the wicked witch was dead (when Haley was fired). Crennel's coaching has been exposed this year in the Chiefs' sloppy play. The team is simply unwatchable. Losing is one thing, but they're never even in games and losing close battles. They're getting embarrassed week in and week out. That's on everyone: players and coaches, but especially those in charge.

What have you done, Pioli?

But the issue goes beyond Crennel, all the way to the top. Scott Pioli is under fire. He has put a bad team out there. Even though they did make the playoffs two years ago and were in the mix last year, I think many will agree that was smoke and mirrors: a weak schedule, a weak conference. Neither team was all that great. As the years go by, this team is made up more and more of guys Pioli has signed and drafted.

Chiefs fans are rallying to have Pioli fired. Quite frankly, he probably deserves it. It makes me wonder if he really did anything great in New England. Did he really make a lot of great decisions to help that franchise, or was he just a guy in the room while Tom Brady and Bill Belichick were out there winning games? The fact is he had a franchise quarterback and a great head coach in New England. He has neither in Kansas City.

He has followed the long Chiefs tradition of refusing to draft a franchise quarterback, too. The Chiefs haven't had a quarterback they drafted win a game for them since Todd Blackledge.

I don't want to sound like it's all on Matt Cassel, because it's not. He is not, however, a franchise quarterback. Giving Cassel a six-year, $62 million contract before he took a snap in Kansas City is one of Pioli's many failures as a GM. I could list more, but this blog is getting long enough. I will, say, though, that his decisions to hire Todd Haley and Romeo Crennel as head coaches are right up there, too. I know hindsight is 20/20 on some of these things like coaches and draft picks, but the GM still has to live with those consequences. It's part of his job, and he hasn't been very good at it.

Here's the sad part: we're only eight games in. There should be hope of a second half rally, but I don't even want one. This team is going nowhere this year, and I'm already thinking about the NFL Draft. If they win another game or two, I'm going to be concerned it pushes them down in the draft. It's too bad this year's draft class does not appear deep on quarterbacks. Kansas City almost has to put all of its chips in the Matt Barkley basket, because what's the next best option behind him? Geno Smith?

The season is a lost cause. The Chiefs should just admit that and start cleaning house, starting with Pioli. Chiefs fans are giving up and getting frustrated as it is. Just admit this team is done and make some moves that show them that the team is efforting to make sure 2013 will be much better.

It's honestly at the point that I don't even want to see this team win another game this season. I don't want to hear about the messages of "never giving up" and "you have to believe." This team has nothing to believe in. They stink, and it's only going to get worse this year. You can't go out and get a better quarterback or head coach in November. Chiefs' fans are now counting down until the offseason.

The better news: their next game is on Monday Night Football... in Pittsburgh. So, an even bigger audience can see how awful this franchise is right now.

Cold Harden Facts: Thunder Can Trust Sam Presti

Harden leaving OKC was something you always knew
was coming, but you're still surprised to see it happen.

I wouldn't call myself a true Thunder "fan," but I did enjoy following the team the last few years when I was in Tulsa. Like many in the Sooner state and around the country, I was a bit surprised by the trade of James Harden to the Rockets. I thought the Thunder might find a way to make it work financially. In the end, I guess it just wasn't feasible.

I see both sides of this, though. I think Bill Simmons makes a lot of good points on this situation. I don't think the Thunder are as cash-strapped as they claim to be. They're not as financially helpless as those who label them a "small market" team make them out to be. I don't know the specifics of their financial situation, but I do know this: they sell out all the time, if not every night. That includes the postseason success they've enjoyed (and likely will continue to enjoy). Simmons said the Thunder made about $30 million in profits last year. That is a lot of cash that could have been used to deal with a huge contract for Harden.

Right now, it certainly appears that the Thunder is weaker. They traded an All-Star who is under 25 years old. They broke up the best trio outside of Miami. It's like the Spurs losing Manu Ginobili. They will greatly miss that explosive offense coming off the bench. I'll miss seeing Westbrook, Harden, and Durant on the floor together running teams out of the arena.

Thunder fans can trust Presti.

Oklahoma City GM Sam Presti, however, has earned the public's trust. They should trust him here. Could they afford Harden? Maybe, but the NBA still has a salary cap, and Presti knows how to work with the funds available to him. He decided to keep a player that's harder to find, a dynamic shot-blocker who can score a little like Serge Ibaka. With Ibaka locked up, Presti now hopes he can find some offense somewhere else.

Thunder fans were also bummed when they traded Jeff Green. While his health made that a different situation after the fact, the Thunder still made out just fine because of the way Presti drafted to replace Green's production.

While I think the Thunder did make the Lakers the 2013 Western Conference favorites with this deal, I don't think that's a lock. They got quite a ransom for Harden. Kevin Martin is an underrated player. Jeremy Lamb is a nice talent, and they have two more first round picks coming to them. That includes a pick from the seemingly terrible Toronto Raptors that has very limited lottery protection. From what I understand, the only way the Thunder does NOT get that pick in 2013 would be if the pick is in the top 3. Imagine what Presti could do with the number four overall pick (and two more) in next year's draft: Shabazz Muhammad? Nerlens Noel? Tony Mitchell? Cody Zeller? Exciting stuff.

As long as these guys are still in OKC, they'll be fine.

Plus, let's not forget this: Durant, Westbrook and the rest of the starting five are still in OKC. The Thunder has a deep bench that will get Eric Maynor back this season, and I still want to see the Lakers' guards defend Westbrook before I hand the West to L.A. I also want to see how Bryant, Howard, and Nash hold up health-wise over the course of the season.

For this year, it does kind of stink for Thunder fans. It would have been nice to see the young OKC trio get another shot at LeBron, Wade and Bosh. Presti is always thinking big picture though. Maybe he took a tiny step back with this trade, but he may be taking a large step forward next year and beyond. Durant will get his ring one day, and Presti is doing everything he can to make sure he has a deep, talented roster around his superstar so Durant's ring is won in Oklahoma City.

Props for Notre Dame

Notre Dame's win in Norman was its best in 20 years.

First off, as I promised him, I'll give some public props to my friend and fellow Irish fan, Stan. He predicted a 27-17 win for the Irish in Norman. I thought Notre Dame would play well, but I didn't think they would pull that off. Kudos to the Irish... and Stan.

So, what does this win mean? I'll keep it simple. It means the Irish are good... this year.

Before the season, after Rick Reilly blasted Notre Dame for being irrelevant and not deserving its perks, I defended the Irish to an extent. Back then, I said Reilly was right that Notre Dame has not been truly relevant in 20 years, but I said the Irish shouldn't apologize for taking advantage of its history.

Also in that blog, I said that Notre Dame would never be an elite program again. I said it could have a good season here and there like Boise State has, but as far as being dominant year in and year out like Alabama is, I couldn't see it.

So, what's happening now? Well, let's not overblow this win over Oklahoma, but let's not sell it short, either. That was easily the best win for Notre Dame since 1993, when the Irish won a 1 vs 2 matchup against Florida State and Heisman winner Charlie Ward.

A lot of Notre Dame's "good" wins since then have turned out to be not so great as teams like Michigan and Michigan State tend to fade into nothing in years when Notre Dame has beaten them. This win in Norman, though? That was fantastic. Oklahoma is a legit power loaded with blue chip talent, and that was only the fifth home loss for Bob Stoops since he took over in 1999. The Irish were an 11-point underdog, went into a hostile environment, and they pushed the Sooners around and made enough plays to get the win. They didn't do it with smoke and mirrors or controversial game-altering officiating. They won, plain and simple. Every Sooner fan and reporter I follow on Twitter simply said the Irish outplayed Oklahoma, and they were right.

If you're not willing to at least concede that this Irish team is different than those coached by Davie, Willingham and Weis, you either aren't watching or you just hate Notre Dame so much that not even a win over Alabama wouldn't convince you anything. This is a solid team, especially defensively. It deserves to be in the top five in the BCS at this point in the season.

If you think Notre Dame is overrated at four, what are they then? 10? 15? 20? Look at the teams down there and tell me who's better. While I'll grant you that teams like Florida and South Carolina may be more talented and get beat up in the SEC, I'd love to hear a list of 19 teams with more accomplishments than the Irish this season. Are Michigan and Michigan State down? Yes, but the Irish beat the teams on their schedule and passed their huge road test. They deserve to be where they are.

As far as the Irish being "back," I don't like using that phrase. What is "back?" Is it "elite top-five program?" Because that takes more than one good season. Brian Kelly says that all the time. He said before the Oklahoma game that he wants his program to be like OU, a program that is routinely in the top ten and in the BCS mix. Time will tell on that.

Does "back" mean they are the best program in the nation and will win several national titles like they did in the '40's? Then no, Notre Dame is not "back" and never will be.

If "back" means they are watchable, talented, and interesting, then yes. Notre Dame is "back." I could watch Manti Te'o play linebacker all day. The defensive line is as good as any I've seen this year (and yes, I watch SEC football every Saturday). For all of his flaws, Everett Golson is fun to watch as he matures. I said in last week's picks blog that he had to play the best game of his career for the Irish to hang with Oklahoma. He did.

"Back?" Not sure what that means, but there is no doubt
that Kelly has done a great job with the 2012 Irish.

There are still games to play this season. As Irish fans remember, after that great win over Florida State in 1993, what happened next? Tom Coughlin's Boston College Eagles broke Irish hearts with a game-winning field goal. BC is still on the schedule this year, and Notre Dame can't be caught sleeping against them, Wake Forest or Pittsburgh. The Irish should, though, SHOULD head to USC at 11-0. What happens from there is anyone's guess.

But you have to give Brian Kelly and his Irish credit. They don't need to apologize for Michigan, Michigan State, and Miami being mediocre. They've passed every test so far and deserve to be where they are. I'm not saying they're the best team in the country. That's Alabama by a country mile.

As far as where Notre Dame in relation to the rest of the country, let's play out the next two months and see where the chips fall when it's all over.

College Football Picks - Week 9

Well, Howdy Doody! It was a red letter week on the winners in Week 8 as I scored my first 10-0 of the year. The spread thing continues to be tricky as I was just 5-5 there.

There are three big games this week involving teams in the top 11 in the BCS, but those games could all be blowouts. We'll get to those.

Cincinnati at #16 Louisville -3.5

Just when Cincinnati was looking like a team that might threaten Louisville in the Big East, the Bearcats go out and lose to Toledo? What was that? A short week on the road is not an ideal time to figure out what went wrong. I see Louisville charging ahead after surviving a scare against South Florida last week.

The pick: Louisville 28-21

#11 Mississippi State +24 at #1 Alabama

Mississippi State is 7-0, but a huge underdog.

Mississippi State wants to claim that it is a real threat in the SEC, but this line from Vegas says otherwise. Yes, the Bulldogs are 7-0, but they have zero impressive wins. Alabama may not have a marquee schedule so far either, but the Tide has looked impressive every week. I think 24 points is a lot to lay, so I'll say Mississippi State stays within 3 touchdowns, but that's about as far as I'll go. Alabama is clearly a step above and will win comfortably.

The pick: Alabama 42-20

#2 Florida -6.5 vs #10 Georgia

Florida is one of the best teams in the country. Georgia could probably win every conference in America except the SEC. In the SEC this season, Georgia is the fourth best team on its best day. Florida can smell its SEC East crown, and I do not think the Gators slip up now. Florida not only wins, but I think it gets ugly.

The pick: Florida 38-17

#9 USC -6.5 at Arizona

I expect a lot of points in this one. USC's defense really hasn't been tested, and Arizona has put up over 100 points the last two weeks. USC will pull away in the end, but expect Arizona to hang around.

The pick: USC 45-36

Ohio State -1 at Penn State 

Bill O'Brien has done a nice job keeping Penn State above water this year, but this line did raise my eyebrows a little. Yes, Ohio State is technically unranked because of sanctions, but in the AP Poll, they are in the top ten. Braxton Miller's health is a concern, but Ohio State still has more talent on that depth chart. Ohio State has been sloppy, though, the last two weeks in wins over Indiana and Purdue. I think they'll be fine this week.

The pick: Ohio State 31-21

#7 Oregon State at Washington +4.5
Oregon State is playing really well, but the schedule so far makes you wonder how legit they will be once they start running into some of the better Pac-12 teams. If the tough, defensive-minded Washington shows up, this is the Beavers' toughest test yet. If the other Washington shows up, this will be an easy win for Oregon State. Like I said against USC, I think Washington will play well defensively at home. The Huskies are better than they've shown, and I'll take the upset.
The pick: Washington 24-21

Texas Tech at #3 Kansas State -7.5

Seth Doege could shift from dark horse to serious Heisman
contender if the leads the Red Raiders to an upset in Manhattan.

Texas Tech won an overtime thriller against TCU last week, but the Wildcats are a different animal. They have gone from a "good team that doesn't beat itself" to a legit national title contender. They already have road wins over Oklahoma and West Virginia, and at this point it would be a disappointment if they do not win the Big 12. Honestly, why can't this team be in the BCS title game? We'll deal with the BCS rankings debate later.
As for this week, I expect Heisman dark horse Seth Doege to play well, I expect Heisman front-runner Collin Klein to maintain his lead.
The pick: Kansas State 42-33

TCU +7.5 at Oklahoma State
TCU has shown a lot of fight the last couple weeks after the disappointing Iowa State loss. Trevone Boykin is settling in to the starting role, and TCU should be able to score on OSU. The Cowboys, meanwhile lost starting quarterback J.W. Walsh. Wes Lunt, who started the opener, returns under center. Lunt may or may not be completely healthy. I expect TCU to hang with the Cowboys in a shootout. Will it be enough to get a win in Stillwater? That might depend on who gets the ball last. I'll say TCU breaks through this week.
The pick: TCU 45-42

#5 Notre Dame +11 at #8 Oklahoma

The Irish defense, led by Te'o, is great, but will it be enough?

It's the big one. If Notre Dame wins, they are officially for real. If Notre Dame loses in embarrassing fashion, they could be viewed as a fraud that has beat up on overrated Big Ten teams. One thing I know about Notre Dame: the defense is honestly one of the best in the nation, at least the front seven is. They're fast, they get after the quarterback, and they are (for the most part) sure tacklers. That is why I don't see Oklahoma running away with this thing. I'll take the 11 points. The Notre Dame defense will not get embarrassed like Texas did.

However, I don't think the Irish will be able to move the ball against Oklahoma. Everett Golson not only has to play, he has to play extremely well. In big games this year, he hasn't. Tommy Rees has had to bail him out, and I don't see Rees doing well against the OU defense, either. The Irish defense will keep them in it, but OU will prevail.

The pick: Oklahoma 27-17

#22 Michigan +2.5 at Nebraska
Michigan struggled last week against Michigan State, but I don't expect Denard Robinson and this Wolverines offense to be that quiet two weeks in a row. Going to Lincoln will be a challenge for sure, but I simply like Michigan better top to bottom.
The pick: Michigan 27-24

College Football Picks - Week 8

I definitely came back down to Earth last week. I was a lousy 6-4 on winners and a blah 5-5 against the spread. I was proud of basically nailing the questionable lines on Louisville, Oregon State and Florida. That was completely canceled out, however, by having any faith in Texas or Tennessee. Lesson learned.

#17 Texas Tech -1.5 at #23 TCU
Another game I lost big on last week was TCU. After the Frogs' awful performance against Iowa State, I really thought they were done for the year (because of all their injuries and the loss of Casey Pachall), and that they might struggle to get to 6 wins. They responded with an impressive win over Baylor. So, I learned they may not be dead. I also learned that TCU tailback Aundre Dean can make a... um... sweet (?) rap video.
So, do I put faith in TCU at home now against a much better Texas Tech team? Toughest call of the week really. I'm trying to come up with a good reason to go with the Frogs at home, but I'm struggling. They gave up a lot of yards to Baylor, and the game was won on turnovers. I don't think Tech will be that sloppy, and I definitely know Tech has a defense that will challenge Trevon Boykin more than Baylor did. Tech wins a close one.
The pick: Texas Tech 31-28

BYU at Notre Dame -13.5

Could  Te'o and the Irish get caught looking ahead to OU?

This screams trap game, doesn't it? Notre Dame should beat BYU. Actually, Notre Dame should crush BYU. The Cougars, who were actually a respected team in the preseason, haven't beaten or even really performed well against any quality opponents. You just wonder if this is the game when the talent people thought BYU had in the preseason shows up. As Arkansas has shown, though, if the talent people talked about in the preseason hasn't shown up yet, it's not going to.
On the Notre Dame side, it's the valley game. Coming off an emotional OT win over Stanford and the week before what could be a Top 10 showdown with Oklahoma, the Irish could easily be caught in a letdown/look ahead scenario.
With this defense that hasn't allowed a touchdown since September 8, I can't see it. Maybe the offense is sluggish, especially if Everett Golson does not play or is limited. Tommy Rees has proven to be a capable, backup, though. Regardless, I think the defense brings it once again.
The pick: Notre Dame 24-9

South Carolina +3.5 at Florida
There is no team in the country with a tougher three-game stretch than the South Carolina Gamecocks in October: Georgia, at LSU, at Florida. That's brutal, especially for a team that has legit BCS talent.
After a tough loss in Death Valley last week, I want to say that South Carolina bounces back. Then comes the news that Marcus Lattimore might not play. That makes this call even tougher. If he plays and he's right, he could make a big difference. Plus, Spurrier also said this week that Jadeveon Clowney has a sore foot and has been limited. Is this gamesmanship? Because if he's messing with me and these guys come out and play like All-Americans, I'm going to be upset. As it is, it's hard for me to take South Carolina at less than 100%, even though I think (when healthy) the Gamecocks are one of the best teams in the nation.
The pick: Florida 24-21

South Florida at Louisville -6.5
It's a game of a team I've lost faith against the team I still firmly believe will win the conference. USF fans are ready to fire Skip Holtz as the concerns over the team's play and perceived preparedness grow every week. Louisville is simply the best team in the Big East and should be strong at home. Better players, better team, Papa John's Cardinal Stadium.
The pick: Louisville 42-28

LSU -3.5 at Texas A&M

Johnny Manziel has some talking Heisman. I say slow down.

"Johnny Football" has had a nice little run. Aggie freshman Johnny Manziel has put up some amazing stats to lead A&M to a 5-1 start. He's even being mentioned in the Heisman conversation.
It's time to pump those brakes. He faces a defense that is quite superior to Louisiana Tech, SMU, and Arkansas. LSU is one of the best teams in the country. Texas A&M, quite simply, is not. LSU will win this game, and I don't think it will be close.
The pick: LSU 30-14

Kansas State +2.5 at West Virginia
I didn't pick the West Virginia game last week, and I'm glad I didn't. Wow. Did that team get exposed or what? The Mountaineers' defense is horrible, and Kansas State is the type of team that will zero in on your weaknesses and make you pay for them. I doubt Geno Smith has two horrible games in a row, but I think the WVU defense will have another bad week. Look for Collin Klein and the KSU offense to dominate time of possession. Smith can't score if he's on the sideline.
The pick: Kansas State 35-30

Michigan State at Michigan -10
These two teams were both in the top ten at one point this year. Neither is ranked at the moment, but I think the pollsters have been a bit harsh on Michigan. The Wolverines' two losses have been to seemingly unbeatable Alabama and to fifth-ranked Notre Dame (a game in which the Wolverines had a ridiculous six turnovers and only lost by 7). Michigan has talent and can put points on the board against most teams. Michigan State has proven to be a disappointment, at least offensively. I think Sparty takes a beating in Ann Arbor.
The pick: Michigan 38-21

Stanford -2.5 at Cal
Stanford lost a tough one at Notre Dame on a controversial ending. I felt for Stepfan Taylor, as I thought did get into the endzone on that fourth down. That's in the past, though. The Cardinal has a really tough defense, and I think it will show up against a hated rival. Stanford bounces back this week.
The pick: Stanford 17-14


Washington +7.5 at Arizona

I didn't expect Arizona to be this big of a favorite. Washington played well defensively but just couldn't outscore USC this week. I expect a similar outcome in Tuscon this week, where Arizona has been pretty tough. The Wildcats will win, but Washington will hang around.

The pick: Arizona 31-24

UL-Monroe +3.5 at Western Kentucky

There's still room on the Kolton Browning bandwagon.

Two Sunbelt Conference teams that had big SEC wins earlier this year (ULM over Arkansas and WKU over Kentucky) meet this week in a game that could decide the conference. A nice little tidbit from Brett McMurphy this week: Western Kentucky has covered in 14 straight games. I've been on the Kolton Browning bandwagon this long. I'm not jumping off now.
The pick: UL-Monroe 28-27

College Football Picks - Week 7

Boom!

Last week was the week I've been waiting for. I was 8-2 picking winners, but more importantly I was 8-2 against the spread. I could have been 9-1 on both had Northwestern not collapsed, but there's no need to be greedy. It's what I get for putting faith in Northwestern.

Although I would have been happy to go 0-10 if it meant the Braves could have gone 1-0 on Friday. But let's move on, shall we?

#15 Texas +3 vs #13 Oklahoma

Texas has a better QB situation than Oklahoma.
If I had said that in August, you would have had me locked up. Now, you can make that argument. David Ash has grown up fast. He's been poised, confident and accurate this year. Landry Jones, on the other hand, has not been quite as sharp as OU had hoped. He hasn't been as awful as some Sooners fans are making it out to be, but he has not been the NFL-caliber arm that OU had hoped to see this year.
The Longhorns are not who we thought they were either, though. In the preseason, we all thought Texas had a dominant defense but would struggle to score. Now? Ash and those running backs have the offense rolling. The defense, though, has shown signs of weakness. Oklahoma State and West Virginia have shown that you can spread Texas out and put up 30-40 points. OU has seen that tape, too. The Sooners should be able to score a good bit, but will it be enough?
As crazy as this sounds, I just don't trust the senior Landry Jones as much as I do the sophomore David Ash this week. I think the balanced Texas offense will get it done while the defense will get a stop or two when it needs to.
The pick: Texas 38-35

#17 Stanford at #7 Notre Dame -8
While the schedule has not turned out to be as great as we thought in the preseason, there is no doubt that Notre Dame is a good team. Are the Irish a great team? We'll see. They sure took another step in that direction last week, when the offense exploded while the defense turned in another dominant performance against a Miami team that was clearly overmatched. Stanford had struggled to score for the most part until last week, when the Cardinal put up 54 in an OT win over Arizona.
I think both defenses will have a strong showing in this one, but I have to like the Irish at home. The line got up to nearly 10, which seemed high, but as it sits at just 8, I'll say the Irish cover, but barely.
The pick: Notre Dame 24-14

#10 Oregon State +6 at BYU
Both of these teams lost a quarterback this week. Oregon State starter Sean Mannion and BYU backup Taysom Hill both had knee surgeries and will miss this game. Hill was filling in for Riley Nelson, who is expected to return. Oregon State may be the great overachievers so far this season, but I don't think it's a fluke at this point (even though 10 seems crazy high for them). I also don't think the Beavers' success is because of one guy. I'm giving Oregon State a little more credit than Vegas is in this one. I'll not only take the points, but also the upset (?) win.
The pick: Oregon State 21-17

#11 USC at Washington +12
I'll admit that I bought all the preseason hype over USC, and the Trojans could still very well win the Pac-12. This team, though, is not on Alabama's level. Talented? Absolutely. They're just a little inconsistent, and that could be a problem in Seattle in primetime. The Huskies might actually hang tough at home, but USC's talent will get them to the finish line.
The pick: USC 35-24

TCU at Baylor -8
I thought this line might shift dramatically once we confirmed Casey Pachall would not be playing, but it only moved one point to Baylor -8. I saw first-hand last week how lost TCU is offensively. It's not just Pachall, either. The Frogs are down to their third or fourth string running back, too. I do not like their chances to outscore Baylor in Waco. If Iowa State can get big plays through the air against TCU's defense, Baylor should have no trouble. It's a shame, too. The roster TCU looked to be bringing into the Big 12 last spring seemed formidable, almost good enough to win the league. Some drug suspensions and injuries later, the Frogs might be looking up at everyone but Kansas this year.
The pick: Baylor 49-28

#3 South Carolina +2.5 at #9 LSU

After watching these two teams last week, the only logical reason for LSU to be favored is that the game is in Baton Rouge. Blame injuries, blame the quarterback or blame the coaches. Whatever the reason, the LSU offense is a mess, and it's not getting any better. South Carolina moves the ball much more efficiently, and I think the Gamecocks' defense might be even better.
Taking the points is an easy decision, and I see no reason why SC can't go to Baton Rouge and win.
The pick: South Carolina 24-13

Tennessee +3 at #19 Mississippi State
Yes, Mississippi State is ranked and unbeaten. Their wins, though: over a pitiful Auburn team and lowly Kentucky in the SEC plus Jackson State, Troy, and South Alabama. I'm probably putting too much faith in Tennessee on the road, but the Vols gave Georgia quite a fight and had Florida on the ropes before collapsing. I will very hesitantly say Tennessee figures some things out and gets a nice road win.
The pick: Tennessee 28-24

#18 Louisville -3 at Pittsburgh
This is the line that I'm trying to figure out this week. Louisville, the hands-down best team in the Big East, is only a field goal favorite at 2-3 Pitt? Sure, Pitt pulled a win out of its you-know-what to get Virginia Tech, but I think that was more a result of poor play from Virginia Tech, who isn't that great anyway. Maybe Louisville's offense has been a little slow the past couple weeks, but I think it wakes up for the road game in conference play. Louisville wins and big.
The pick: Louisville 35-14

#4 Florida -8.5 at Vanderbilt
This is another head-scratching line for me. I saw it as low as -7, but the latest is 8.5. The Gators are one of the top teams in the country right now, and you're telling me it could almost be a one-possession game against a team that got blasted 48-3 by Georgia and just squeaked out a 19-15 ugly win at Mizzou? No way. The Gators roll.
The pick: Florida 38-14

#22 Texas A&M -7.5 at #23 Louisiana Tech

Color me shocked that this is actually a showdown of ranked teams. I guess somebody has to be in the Top 25. Tech quarterback Colby Cameron (no relation to Kirk) has yet to throw an interception this year while putting up 1,447 yards passing and 13 touchdowns. Those aren't Geno Smith numbers, but still pretty good.
The Bulldogs haven't seen a quarterback like Johnny Manziel, though. He can really play, and the A&M defense (while not outstanding) will definitely be the best Tech has seen.
And yes, the Growing Pains song is stuck in my head, too.
The pick: Texas A&M 44-34

It should be another great weekend of college football. The better news, though: college basketball gets underway with Midnight Madness celebrations all over the country. It's about time.

Bravo Blog: 2012 Postmortem

I've calmed down. It hurts when the season ends, but it's time for some quick thoughts on the 2012 Braves. It helps with the pain, after all.

To be fair, I was ready to write this a month ago, when they looked like they were going to let another September slip away. Then Chipper Jones hit a home run, they figured it out and followed Braves tradition and waited until October to fail. That was a cheap shot. I'm sorry. I'm still dealing with the game.

Cheap shots aside, I enjoyed the season because I love baseball. The Braves kept it interesting until the end. Now, it's time to talk about how it ended.

First things first.

The Call

Yes, the call sucked. It wasn't why they lost, though.

The infield fly ruling was awful. Letter of the law? I can see it. However, the spirit of the law was not honored. It was not a situation in which an infielder could intentionally drop a pop up to get a cheap double play, which was why the rule was created. Ken Rosenthal agrees with me. Kozma misplayed the ball, and it should have been bases loaded with one out. The umpire didn't even make the call until Kozma backed off. That's what has me upset. The rule says the call must be made immediately. The call was made a second before the ball hit the ground, just as Kozma gave up on it. That wasn't right.

That said, that's not why Atlanta lost, and everybody knows it. Three errors lost that game. Chipper's error opened the gates for three runs, then Uggla and Simmons let in one more each. That was the game. It takes a lot for me to blame an entire loss on a call (The last time I did that for one of my favorite teams was the 1997 NLCS. Eric Gregg's strike zone for Livan Hernandez was... you know what? Let's not do this now). I don't blame this loss on the bad call. It sucked and squashed a possible rally, but I blame the loss on the Braves' bad defense, which is a shame. They were the best defensive team in the National League this year.

The Format
I'm actually not going to complain about the format, even though a lot of people want to. If you're going to play 162 games, winning your division should matter. It does now. The Braves were punished for getting dominated by the Nationals in NL East play. Don't like the Wild Card Game? Don't be in it.

People say it should be two out of three. Maybe I'd buy that, but travel and getting all these games in before Thanksgiving gets more challenging. It's easy to complain about the format when your team loses. I'm sure Cardinals and Orioles fans love it right now.

Chipper

Thanks for the memories, Chipper. The Braves will miss you.

I could write ten pages on Chipper Jones. I'll just say it sucks that his career ends like this: on a night when he committed a key error that lost the game and when Atlanta fans spent more time throwing trash on the field than cheering their hero. That latter part is disgraceful.

Chipper Jones did more for the Braves' franchise than any number one overall pick did for the team that drafted him. He was a keystone for almost two decades of very good baseball in Atlanta. I wanted him to get one more championship, but it just wasn't to be.

You can't say he was the greatest anything. Brave? That's Hank. Switch hitter? That's the Mick. Third baseman? That's Schmidt or Brett. But Chipper is no lower than fifth on all of those lists, and maybe two on a couple of them. He's a first ballot Hall of Famer, and Braves fans should be grateful he was so dedicated to  that town and that team.

Now begins the task of making sure the franchise stays competitive without number 10 at third base. The Braves have options and a decent amount of money to spend (Jones, Derek Lowe, and Michael Bourn all come off the books). Maybe they try to keep Bourn, or maybe they go with cheaper options like Nick Swisher. Maybe Prado fills that spot at third or they try something else there and leave Prado in left. We can turn on the hot stove when the weather gets colder.

We'll see what happens. For better or worse, choking or not, the Braves are my team. I'll still be chopping in 2013.