College Football Picks - Week 6

It was another respectable week picking winners (7-3) but another rough time with the spread (4-6). Although, if it hadn't been for last second touchdowns by Cincinnati and Oregon State, it would have been a 9-1 week on the winners. Whatever.

I'm going with an usual number of underdogs this week. Hold on to your you-know-whats.

#24 Northwestern +2.5 at Penn State
This line surprised me a little. Northwestern is ranked, but the Wildcats have beat up some blah teams (Vanderbilt, Syracuse, Indiana). On the other hand, is Penn State getting too much credit for wins over Navy, Temple and Illinois? I'm going to put a little faith in Pat Fitzgerald and say Northwestern goes into Happy Valley focused.
The pick: Northwestern 24-21

Vanderbilt +7 at Missouri
I had to pick the James Franklin Bowl. Missouri QB James Franklin hasn't had a great start to his season, but opening SEC play with Georgia and South Carolina will do that. He looked better against UCF last week. Vanderbilt coach James Franklin also saw his team lose to South Carolina (close, 17-13) and Georgia (48-3 blowout). Both of these teams look at this game as a must-win to stay relevant in the SEC East or risk finishing in the basement with Kentucky. I think the home field gives the Tigers the edge, but it will be close.
The pick: Missouri 27-24

#4 LSU at #10 Florida +2.5

LSU has looked sloppy. Will the Mad Hatter clean things up?

It's a road game in the SEC, and it's a very tough one. Florida is building some confidence, and I'm not sure I trust LSU right now. The Tigers looked sloppy against Towson. If you want to say that was a fluke because they weren't focused against a lousy opponent, then how do you explain the 12-10 win at Auburn? LSU should have blown out War Eagle and didn't. This is a tougher road game than that. LSU might wake up a little, but I don't think it will be enough in the swamp.
The pick: Florida 21-20

#17 Oklahoma -6 at Texas Tech
Is Lubbock a house of horrors for the Sooners? Sure. Was OU overrated to start the season? Yes. I still expect them to beat the Red Raiders by more than a possession. Sure, Tech is 4-0, but they have beat up on some weak teams. OU doesn't have any wins to brag about either, but Bob Stoops has had two weeks to figure some things out. I think the Sooners will be okay this week.
The pick: Oklahoma 38-28

UL-Monroe -3 at Middle Tennessee
Oh, yeah. I'm throwing some Sun Belt out there this week. The battle-tested ULM Warhawks step into conference play against Middle Tennessee. The Blue Raiders had a nice win of their own last week as they defeated Georgia Tech. ULM's win over Arkansas and close loss to Baylor certainly opened a lot of eyes. I'm a big believer in ULM QB Kolton Browning, and he'll get it done again.
The pick: UL-Monroe 34-28

#5 Georgia at #6 South Carolina -1 
It may be too early to call this game a national quarterfinal, but we may look back at this game in November that way. The winner of this game is suddenly the favorite in the SEC East (with Florida still in the way). Obviously, the SEC East champ likely gets the Alabama/LSU winner, and the winner of the SEC should very likely be in the national championship game.
This game is so tough to call. I think that South Carolina has the superior defense, and that might be the difference. The other big factor for me, though, is which quarterback I trust more. That answer is Aaron Murray. He's no Joe Montana, but I like his experience and his accuracy in this setting. Then there's one more factor: Georgia was just hit with the news that leading Michael Bennett tore his ACL and is out for the year. I have to go with the healthier home team.
The pick: South Carolina 27-21

#8 West Virginia +6.5 at #11 Texas

Geno Smith was amazing against Baylor. How will he
fare against a much tougher Texas defense, though?

I was impressed with Texas last week (even though they got the benefit of a bad call at the end), but I was more impressed with Geno Smith. Rip Baylor's defense all you want. The man completed 45 of 51 passes for 656 yards and 8 touchdowns. Just read that again. Wow.
I've been very impressed with David Ash's progress at quarterback, but his challenge is greater this week. Oklahoma State definitely showed that the Texas defense is not invincible. West Virginia runs a similar look and might run it better. He won't throw for 600 yards or 8 touchdowns, but Geno Smith will put up plenty of points, and I think Texas will have a hard time keeping up.
The pick: West Virginia 42-34

Miami (FL) +13 vs #9 Notre Dame at Soldier Field
I never thought I'd say this, but Notre Dame's defense is great. It really is. Manti Te'o may still be a longshot for the Heisman, but the fact people are even suggesting it tells you how great he's been. He's a top ten pick in the NFL Draft for sure.
The bad news for the Irish: Miami's offense is clicking after a rough start. Notre Dame's isn't. The Irish defense will be a rude awakening for the 'Canes, but the question for me is if Notre Dame can score enough. I think they will, but I think 13 points is too big of a spread.
The pick: Notre Dame 24-14

#21 Nebraska at #12 Ohio State -3.5
Ohio State looks pretty strong. The Buckeyes might go unbeaten in the Big Ten. Too bad they can't go to the championship game. They have to get past the Cornhuskers first, though, and I think that's pretty doable at home. Nebraska's slow start against a struggling Wisconsin team was troubling. If that happens in Columbus, it could ugly. Nebraska will hang around, but look for the Buckeyes to pull away in the fourth.
The pick: Ohio State 35-24

#23 Washington at #2 Oregon -24.5
That's a big line for Oregon. Are the Ducks that good? Yes, I think they are. They're fast, they're talented, and they're well coached... and they're at home. The Ducks will pull away late to cover.
The pick: Oregon 49-24

College Football Picks - Week 5

Replacement refs had a rough week,  so I invited them
to make some picks with me this week.

Replacement refs, replacement refs, replacement refs! That's all we hear anywhere right now. Well, a quick break from that: I went 8-2 picking winners last week, but this spread thing is challenging. I was just 5-5 there.

But, since replacement refs get a lot of buzz, I let the replacement refs make picks this week along with my own. Maybe this will be a nice distraction for them... or at least maybe it will make me look good.

#9 Stanford -7 at Washington (Thursday)
Stanford opened some eyes by beating USC, mainly with defense. Washington managed just 3 points against LSU's defense. While I'm not sure Stanford's is quite that good, it will give Washington fits. Stanford wins with defense.
The pick: Stanford 24-14
Replacement refs pick: Andrew Luck has a big day: 75-2

#25 Baylor at #9 West Virginia -12.5
It's the first Big 12 game for the Mountaineers, and they're fortunate to have it at home. Going to Waco could have been a trap for them, but I think WFVU will do just fine at home. Geno Smith is the real deal, and he'll put on a show. Look for a lot of points in this one, though.
The pick: West Virginia 49-35
Replacement refs pick: RG3 dominates 50-0

Arkansas +13.5 at Texas A&M

SMILE! You're about to get fired!

Coaching matters. In the NFL, Exhibit A is the New Orleans Saints. In college football, Exhibit A is the Arkansas Razorbacks. This team has talent. I swear it does. I honestly thought the talent alone would get them to third in the SEC West behind powerful LSU and seemingly unstoppable Alabama. They were good enough to be a BCS team a year ago, but were locked out because the BCS could only take two SEC teams. Now? The Hogs are nearly a two touchdown underdog to the Aggies, and their coach doesn't even know what state he's in. I want to say that this team is going to wake up. I want to say that Tyler Wilson is going to lead this team to a season-saving win. I just see no reason to believe that. They lost at home to Rutgers AND UL-Monroe! I'll say it will be close just because of Texas A&M's propensity to collapse in the second half. Can't pick Arkansas to win, though.
The pick: Texas A&M 31-24
Replacement refs pick: Bobby Petrino is clutch: 65-50

Tennessee at #5 Georgia -13.5
Yes, it's an old SEC rivalry, but the game is in Athens. Georgia and South Carolina will battle it out in the SEC East to see who gets that shot at the LSU/Alabama winnner. Tennessee simply isn't there yet. After collapsing at home against Florida and struggling for three quarters against Akron, I'm not sure the Vols are close, either.
The pick: Georgia 45-28
Replacement refs pick: Titans 10-7

#14 Ohio State +3 at #20 Michigan State
In an overall weak slate of games, this is the most interesting... I guess. The Big Ten has been pitiful out of conference, but maybe the play improves when league play gets going. My concern with Michigan State is that the Spartans can't score at all. Ohio State has some firepower, and I think that's enough to win in East Lansing.
The pick: Ohio State 21-14
Replacement refs pick: Wolverines 44-42

#12 Texas -2.5 at Oklahoma State

Can Ash and the Texas offense put up points in Stillwater?

There are rumors of a wild new OSU uniform for this one. I'm skeptical, but I really don't care. I'm really interested to see if Oklahoma State can score on the Longhorns' defense, and that may depend on who is at quarterback. Wes Lunt's status is in doubt, but J.W. Walsh played really well in his absence. I'm also curious if the Texas offense and David Ash actually have it together or if it has just been beating up on lousy teams. I lean towards the Texas defense and running game grinding this one out.
The pick: Texas 31-28
Replacement refs pick: Sooners 15-12

Virginia Tech at Cincinnati +7
Everyone has written off Virginia Tech after a horrible loss to Pitt, a team that Cincinnati beat handily, by the way. I can't blame them, but I'm going to chalk that up as a fluke. While I do not think Virginia Tech is all that great, the Hokies will regroup before the year is over and still make a run at that ACC Coastal crown. VaTech will get it done on the road, but I think it will be ugly.
The pick: Virginia Tech 24-20
Replacement refs pick: Reds 3-1

Missouri +2.5 at Central Florida
I did a double take when I saw this line. Missouri is an underdog at Central Florida. Yeah, Missouri has gotten beat down by a pair of really good SEC teams, but that is surprising. Maybe Vegas knows something I don't (actually, that's highly likely). People who know me know that I take my shots at Mizzou from time to time... or often... but I think Missouri is a decent squad. The Tigers can handle a Conference USA team, even if it is a C-USA team playing at home that might win that conference.
The pick: Missouri 34-27
Replacement refs pick: MU-Rolla 17-7

Wisconsin at #22 Nebraska -13

Wisconsin and Nebraska will wear these on Saturday.

You might not want to watch this one, and it's not just because it's a Big Ten game. Wisconsin and Nebraska will be sporting some quite hideous jerseys for this one. Speaking of ugly, Wisconsin's offense has been pretty lousy, although it did get going a little last week against UTEP. The Badgers might be the most unimpressive 3-1 team in the country. Nebraska, though, has Rex Burkhead back, and Taylor Martinez has limited his mistakes (albeit against mostly poor competition). Wisconsin has simply been unimpressive for four weeks, and Nebraska is putting it together. I think Nebraska will not only win, but boat race Wisconsin at home.
The pick: Nebraska 49-24
Replacement refs pick: The ugly one 14-13

#18 Oregon State at Arizona -3
A tip of the cap to Oregon State for an impressive win over UCLA. Arizona got blasted by Oregon, although the Wildcats' five turnovers certainly didn't help. While Oregon State is much improved, I feel a letdown coming. Arizona will clean up the mistakes and get a nice home win over a solid team. This could actually be the second time this season that Arizona defeats an 18th-ranked OSU team at home (Oklahoma State being the other).
The pick: Arizona 31-27
Replacement refs pick: Cardinals 23-28

Of course, putting in these fake picks from my fake replacement refs leaves me wide open to be defeated by them. Even if I do, I still won't look as ridiculous as the NFL does right now.

College Football Picks - Week 4

First off, in honor of the late Steve Sabol, the award-winning filmmaker of NFL Films fame, I invite you to enjoy some classic NFL Films music while you read this week's picks.

Now, let's talk about last week. There was anger. There was much frustration over my showing last week: a lousy 6-4 picking winners and 4-6 against the spread. Barf.

I just have to smile and move on. I'm nervous, though. There are some very tricky spreads this week.

BYU +6.5 at #24 Boise State
Haters of non-BCS teams rejoice. The loser of this game is definitely out of the BCS party crasher picture. The winner still has an uphill climb, but neither of team will get to a BCS bowl with two losses. Despite the ugly loss to Utah, I still think BYU will be good enough to give the Broncos a game on the blue turf. I can't completely go against Boise State at home though. The game will be closer than a touchdown, but Boise State will survive... and then Utah fans will storm the field.
The pick: Boise State 28-24

Missouri at #7 South Carolina -10
A new rivalry for Missouri... I guess. The Battle for Columbia! Both teams come in with questions at quarterback. Steve Spurrier is caught between his injured starter Connor Shaw and backup Dylan Thompson, who has been great in relief of Shaw. Missouri, meanwhile, also has a banged up starter in James Franklin, although he's confident he'll play. Regardless, this Columbia will be a very tough place for Missouri to win. The Gamecocks just might be the best team in the SEC East, and this is their chance to show it.
The pick: South Carolina 42-28

Oregon State at #19 UCLA -11.5
Time will tell if UCLA has finally found the guy to wake the sleeping giant that is the Bruins' football program. UCLA is off to a really good start, though. The Bruins seem to have great balance on offense with running back Johnathan Franklin and quarterback Brett Hundley. Those two have helped UCLA average 622 yards of offense through three games.
Considering how bad Wisconsin has looked through three games, I can't give Oregon State too many bonus points for that win, although it was a good one for them. UCLA's offense is light years ahead of Wisconsin's right now, and it will show on Saturday.
The pick: UCLA 49-21

#2 LSU -18 at Auburn
Auburn is 1-2 and barely escaped UL-Monroe last week. It almost feels like panic time, like War Eagle desperately needs a good win. Well, here comes LSU. That's bad news for anyone, but especially for a struggling team. Sure, going on the road in the SEC is tough, but LSU is just way too far ahead of Auburn. I can't see the upset. Maybe Auburn covers at home, but that's about all I'll give them. Actually, no, I won't do that, either.
The pick: LSU 40-17

#18 Michigan +6.5 at #11 Notre Dame

Some Michigan fans fired the first shot this week,  as someone hung
this banner outside one of the gates at Notre Dame Stadium.

Is this the part where I drink the Irish Kool-Aid and choke on it? Based on recent history, picking the Irish to start 4-0 with two wins over Top 25 teams seems ludicrous. Any time in the last 15 years when the Irish have seemingly started off "hot," they've eventually gotten exposed in embarrassing fashion.
Notre Dame has played well, though. No question about it. The defense has been great, although the loss of senior safety Jamoris Slaughter hurts a lot.
Two things to consider about Michigan: First, Notre Dame has yet to solve Denard Robinson. The senior is 3-0 against the Irish (although he only saw spot duty as a freshman). Second, there's not much of a reason to be down on Michigan. The Wolverines' only loss was to an Alabama team that might be able to beat the 49ers right now.
As people have noted, however, the overall Irish team speed is noticeably better this season. I think that and the home field will help Notre Dame pull out a thriller.
The pick: Notre Dame 30-27

#15 Kansas State +14 at #6 Oklahoma
Just when I was ready to think Kansas State could make a run at the Big 12 title, I saw reasons for doubt last week against North Texas. The tackling wasn't good, and K-State let North Texas hang around a lot longer than it should have. Maybe that was a wake up call just in time for a huge game in Norman. The Sooners struggled at UTEP, but blew out an overmatched Florida A&M team. Stoops rarely loses at home, but I think 14 points is a lot to spot what I think should be a refocused Wildcat team. OU will survive, though.
The pick: Oklahoma 36-27

#10 Clemson +14.5 at #4 Florida State
Florida State doesn't have too many speed bumps on the way to a game in Miami, whether that's the Orange Bowl or the BCS Championship. This is definitely one of those speed bumps, though. Clemson has plenty of talent to make this game, especially if Sammy Watkins gets loose like he did last year. He had 141 yards receiving and 2 touchdowns in last year's win over the Seminoles.
While the competition hasn't been great (actually, it's been borderline awful), the fact that FSU has outscored its opponents 176-3 is nothing to sneeze at. Chris Thompson is my player to watch in this one. The running back, who suffered two broken vertebrae last year, looked great against Wake Forest and could make a big difference in this game, too. Florida State's defense is great, but is it great enough to help the 'Noles blow out Clemson? I think the Tigers are better than that. This one will be close.
The pick: Florida State 24-21

Fresno State at Tulsa -5.5
Fresno State certainly put on a show last week, as the Bulldogs blasted an awful Colorado team 69-14. As I've said before, though, Tulsa is a talented offensive squad. Nebraska transfer Cody Green looks comfortable at quarterback, and he has a talented stable of running backs behind him. Look for a lot of points, but a few more on the Tulsa side.
The pick: Tulsa 45-36

#22 Arizona +23.5 at #3 Oregon 

Sports Illustrated called Oregon's De'Anthony Thomas
the fastest man in football. No argument from me.
(Image courtesy Sports Illustrated)

It's a battle of two ranked teams, but the spread sure doesn't make it seem that way. Oregon is a huge favorite. And why not? The Ducks are once again loaded on both sides of the ball, and I do think they'll win comfortably. Like Sports Illustrated said this week, speed wins. That Oregon speed will do exactly that once again. However, 23.5 points is a lot to cover against an Arizona team that actually looks pretty decent. Rich Rodriguez will get that program going, but not enough to win this game. The only thing that can stop Oregon this week: the SI cover jinx.
The pick: Oregon 48-28

Baylor -7.5 at Louisiana-Monroe
Baylor should send some thank you cards to Arkansas and Auburn for making them aware of how talented ULM can be. The fact that ULM is only a 7.5-point home 'dog against a Big 12 team shows how much Vegas respects this team that has never even been to a bowl game. Kolton Browning is the real deal at quarterback, and he'll play well again. Baylor, though, has talent to spare and should control the line of scrimmage. Browning will get his, but the Bears will score plenty of points. Art Briles will not get caught off guard.
The pick: Baylor 45-31

Here's to hoping I get back on track. If I don't, I promise I won't get upset and just walk away.

College Football Picks - Week 3

I was one better on the spread and one worse on the winners compared to Week 1. In Week 2, I went 7-3 picking winners and 6-4 against the spread. Thanks for nothing, Vanderbilt and Auburn. But my week wasn't as bad as some.

We've got another conference debut, a not-so-happy reunion, and a big game that suddenly doesn't seem so big. On to the picks...

Big 12 Debut
#16 TCU -21 at Kansas

TCU begins Big 12 play this week against Kansas.

Horned Frog fans have been anxious to join the Big 12, and they couldn't get a nicer welcome mat than Kansas. I have to thank my friend and KU alum Mike Rigg for bringing this Charlie Weis quote to my attention: When asked about TCU this week, he said, "Their coaches are trying to tell their players how good we are, but they just saw us lose to Rice. So, psychologically, we could have an advantage there."
So, losing to Navy, Syracuse and Connecticut at Notre Dame was Charlie's way of getting USC to lower its guard? Nice, try Charlie. KU has no advantage, psychologically or otherwise, in this one. My prediction? Pain.
The pick: TCU 45-17

The Randy Edsall Bowl
Connecticut -2.5 at Maryland
Randy Edsall left Connecticut for Maryland, and some Terps fans are wishing he hadn't. Maryland was an awful 2-10 last year and barely got by William and Mary to start this season. The Terps aren't very good, but let's be honest: Connecticut isn't getting back to the BCS anytime soon either. I do think, however, that the upperclassmen will be fired up to face their former coach. I'll take the Huskies in an ugly one.
The pick: Connecticut 14-10

Suddenly not so great
#1 Alabama -20.5 at Arkansas
A few weeks ago, I liked this as a possible spot for Alabama to get tripped up early. Arkansas is (was?) a talented offensive squad and has the Tide at home. After that ULM disaster, though, the Hogs suddenly don't look so tough. Plus, Tyler Wilson might not even play in this game. Even if he does, he probably won't be 100 percent healthy. Arkansas fans may still believe. I don't.
The pick: Alabama 41-17

Best QB Duel You Don't Know About
Ohio -6.5 at Marshall

It may be a little early to talk about running the table,
but Tyler Tettleton and Ohio might have a shot.

When we last saw the Ohio Bobcats, they were leaving Happy Valley with a big win and people were wondering if they can run the table. They blasted lowly New Mexico State last week, but this is a game in which they could get beat. Marshall quarterback Rakeem Cato, a product of a very good Miami (FL) Central High School program, has a lot of talent. I'm still a big believer, though, in Ohio quarterback Tyler Tettleton. Had he not a knee injury not cost him his junior season of high school, he would likely be in a BCS program somewhere right now. He'll lead his Bobcats to a nice road win, and there really aren't many obstacles left if you look at Ohio's schedule. They only leave the state of Ohio twice the rest of the year. That's life in the MAC.
The pick: Ohio 33-24

Reunited
North Carolina at #19 Louisville -3
Former Florida defensive coordinator Charlie Strong will look across the field and face former Florida offensive coordinator Larry Fedora in this one. The two worked together in 2003 and 2004.
Like I've said before, I'm a believer in Louisville this year. (Although, as a Marquette basketball fan, it hurts me a little inside to say anything nice about Louisville.) Charlie Strong is doing a really good job in his third year, and now most of his recruits are starting for the team. That includes Teddy Bridgewater, the sophomore quarterback who is really coming into his own. North Carolina lost to Wake Forest last week. So, I like the Cardinals big.
The pick: Louisville 38-20

Now this is feels more like an SEC game
#18 Florida at #23 Tennessee -3
The Gators battled and were able to grind out a tough road win in College Station as SEC newcomer Texas A&M (as it often did last year) faded in the second half. Florida still has some growing to do on offense, and Knoxville may not be the place to do it. While they haven't played great teams, the Vols' offense has looked crisp. Again, not against great competition, but Tyler Bray has completed 73 percent of his throws for six  touchdowns and no picks through two games. I think his strong play continues.
The pick: Tennessee 30-24

Last year was more interesting
#2 USC -10 at #21 Stanford
This is not the Andrew Luck vs Matt Barkley epic we saw last year. Stanford is still a talented team, but USC looks better at just about every position. The Trojans struggled a little at Syracuse last week, but I'll give them a pass because A.) it was a cross-country trip and B.) they eventually pulled away and won comfortably. USC will win this one relatively easily, too.
The pick: USC 44-28

First true test
#20 Notre Dame +6 at #10 Michigan State

Just how much does Brian Kelly trust Everett Golson?

Enjoy this game. Who knows what its future might be when Notre Dame is obligated to five ACC teams a year. More on that some other time.
As I thought, Purdue gave Notre Dame a much bigger challenge than Navy. The Irish did escape, although I was surprised to see Tommy Rees come in to do it. Even though it worked, Brian Kelly shuffling quarterbacks makes me nervous for the Irish. You either have a quarterback you trust, or you have no quarterbacks you trust.
Michigan State is a very good defensive team, and I think both teams will struggle to score. I think the small spread favoring the Spartans seems right. This will be a tough place for Notre Dame to win, especially if Tyler Eifert has to sit out after suffering a concussion last week. On the positive side, Cierre Wood returns to give the Irish another weapon in the backfield. The Irish will play well enough to keep it close, but come up short.
The pick: Michigan State 24-20

I'm not convinced
#14 Texas at Ole Miss +9.5
The Longhorns have done a good job scoring a lot of points on bad teams (82 points total against Wyoming and New Mexico). I'm not impressed with their offense just yet. Ole Miss is far from an SEC power, but going on the road to Oxford is still a step up for the 'Horns' unproven quarterbacks. I think Texas has plenty of talent on defense to win, but I think spotting Texas 9.5 is too much.
The pick: Texas 24-17

Just Wynn Baby
#25 BYU -4 at Utah
A real bummer for Utah this week as quarterback Jordan Wynn had to announce his retirement (a word rarely heard in college football) due to a severe shoulder injury. I'd like BYU anyway in this game, but Utah could be in rough shape without Wynn.
The pick: BYU 31-20

Finally, a game I'm not picking, but I'm definitely curious about: UL-Monroe, coming off that wild upset of Arkansas, travels to Auburn. War Eagle definitely needs a win, and should get one. Auburn is a 16.5-point favorite. Arkansas was a a 30-point favorite, though. I really loved the gutsy play-calling from ULM and the poise shown by quarterback Kolton Browning. It would be great to see more of the same this weekend.

I'll leave you with this: As I wrote that previous paragraph, I had to catch myself to be sure to avoid using words like :"heroic" and "courageous" when describing athletes. I try to always refrain from doing that, but especially this week. In the end, it's just a game. The real heroes are out there protecting our freedom and saving our lives. Never Forget 9/11.

College Football Picks - Week 2

It wasn't bad, nor was it great. I went 8-2 in my first week with a humbling 5-5 against the spread. I said I was going out on a limb with that SMU upset, and I truly was. Way off there. If only I'd substituted that Ohio bonus pick in my regular 10, things would have gone better.

The wins were okay, but I definitely stumbled against the spread.

This week lacks any big time games between ranked teams, but isn't short on intrigue, especially as the SEC's two newest members both host their first conference games. I was tempted to throw Kansas/Rice in there, because that game surprisingly has two Sports Stars of Tomorrow alums in it: Dayne Crist and Sam McGuffie. That game didn't make the cut, though. These did:

Welcome to the SEC
#24 Florida +1 at Texas A&M 
Well, the Aggies wanted the SEC. Here it comes. Most people are expecting A&M to get absolutely destroyed as it goes through the SEC. I'm pretty much in that boat. The problem, this week, though: I'm not sure Florida is all that good. Vegas doesn't either, as the Aggies are a slight favorite in the game. It should be a great environment at Kyle Field, and that will be tough on Florida's young quarterbacks. The Gators have one thing going for them that A&M doesn't though: they have a game under their belt. They shook off some rust against Bowling Green while the Aggies had their season opener postponed. The Aggies are breaking in a new quarterback themselves, not to mention a new coach. I thought A&M might be ready for a statement, then I saw this:

Talking smack to a strong SEC program before you've played a conference game? I don't care if nobody directly associated with A&M put that up. It's still bad karma. Florida makes a statement without the use of a billboard.
The pick: Florida 27-21

Welcome to the SEC II
#7 Georgia -2.5 at Missouri
First things first: despite having a family full of Georgia fans, I discovered for the first time this week that Samuel L. Jackson is a Georgia fan. How cool is that?
But I digress. This is a huge game for Missouri as it begins SEC play against arguably the top contender in the SEC East. Not only would a win here be a great statement for Mizzou, but a win would suddenly have people asking if Missouri could win the SEC East. I know that seems like a stretch and a knee-jerk reaction, but if they knock off the top contender, why couldn't they?
Georgia was a little shaky against Buffalo last week, but the Bulldogs did have four defensive starters suspended. I am expecting all four to conveniently be back in time for this big road SEC opener. The defense should be stronger, the freshman running backs looked solid last week, and (with all due respect to A.J. McCarron) I think Aaron Murray is the best quarterback in the conference. Top to bottom, Georgia simply has more talent and should win. But, if Missouri wants any inspirational quotes, I'd suggest Ezekial 25:17.
The pick: Georgia 31-24

Fundamentally sound
Miami FL at #21 Kansas State -7
Kansas State is just rock solid. They may not have the athleticism to beat a team like Alabama or USC, but the Wildcats won't beat themselves. They're tough, they're well-coached, and quarterback Collin Klein continues to develop as a dangerous threat. Miami is building and is on the right track, but this road test will be too much for the Hurricanes.
The pick: Kansas State 41-31

Marve-elous?
Purdue at #22 Notre Dame -14
There really wasn't anything bad to say about Notre Dame's opener against Navy. The Irish basically did everything right against a team they really outmatched physically. The concern against Purdue, though, is that the Irish will see a passing attack quite superior to Navy's this week. Purdue isn't exactly USC, but they do have a former high school All-American at QB in Robert Marve. Navy simply doesn't pass the ball unless it is trying to catch a defense sleeping. So, Notre Dame's inexperienced secondary was hardly tested last week. Marve, meanwhile, looked pretty sharp in Purdue's opener, even though it was against Eastern Kentucky. He should be able to move the ball against the Irish. I think the balance Notre Dame has on offense, though, will be the difference. They have a solid stable of backs that should pace them to a comfortable victory.
The pick: Notre Dame 36-21

Valley game?
South Florida +1 at Nevada
This is a tough call for me. South Florida has plenty of skill, especially at quarterback with B.J. Daniels. Turnovers, though, limited their potential last year. Nevada is coming off a big road win at Cal. Sometimes teams have a letdown after a big win. I think the Wolf Pack comes down to earth this week as USF puts it all together for a nice road win of their own.
The pick: South Florida 30-27

Get your popcorn... or corn... ready
Iowa State +4 at Iowa

Iowa and Iowa State play this week. Thankfully, not for this.

I can't let the great state of Iowa forget the trophy that was once designed for this game. In their defense, the outrage was loud. Thankfully, the good folks at Iowa Corn changed it, and the new design for the Cy-Hawk Trophy actually looks kinda cool.
As for the game, Iowa State started slow then pulled away and beat what I think is a pretty good Tulsa team. Iowa did not look good at all. I hesitate to go with the road team, but ISU seems to be trending upward while I'm just not sure about Iowa.
The pick: Iowa State 28-27

Rest of the West
Auburn +3 at Mississippi State
The SEC West is likely coming down to Alabama, LSU, and Arkansas. Then there's these two teams. Neither is elite, but neither is bad. I thought Auburn had a solid effort against a good Clemson team in last week's loss. It's hard to judge Mississippi State after the Bulldogs crushed lowly Jackson State 56-9. I think Auburn bounces back from a tough loss with an improved effort on defense. Clemson piled up 528 yards of offense on them. I don't think Mississippi State can score like that. Auburn wins a low-scoring game.
The pick: Auburn 21-20

It's alright, it's okay, we'll be working for them someday
Vanderbilt -3.5 at Northwestern
Northwestern won some bragging rights last week in the game dubbed the "Prose Bowl," as it beat Syracuse, another school known for its journalism alums. This week, the Wildcats battle another school that I did not have the SAT scores to get into. Vanderbilt battled but lost to a good South Carolina team last week. I think the 'Dores are pretty solid, and they'll take out some frustrations this week.
The pick: Vanderbilt 31-21

Tiger bait
Washington at #3 LSU -23.5
I'm not sure how you prepare for LSU, but Washington had an interesting approaching this week. They brought a live Tiger to practice. While LSU may not be so dangerous that you could get mauled, the Tigers are pretty close. In Baton Rouge against a team traveling across the country, I'll take the Tigers and the big spread.
The pick: LSU 45-17

Another 84?
#18 Oklahoma State -13.5 at Arizona
Oklahoma State lit up the scoreboard against poor Savannah State, a 62.5 point underdog, last week. The Cowboys couldn't do anything wrong and won 84-0. It won't be that easy that week, but that's not saying much. True freshman QB Wes Lunt looked strong last week for the Cowboys, and he'll do well again against an overmatched Arizona team.
The pick: Oklahoma State 41-20

I'll leave you with this: poor Savannah State is at #6 Florida State this week. The line is a ridiculous 70.5. You know it's an awful game when the opposing team walks in wondering if it can stay within ten touchdowns. Honest question: how much worse could a local high school power do?

Bravo Blog: On the record on Tomahawk Choke 2

The slumping Uggla is the poster boy for the struggling Braves.

On Sunday, I was ranting on Twitter about how poorly the Braves have played recently. Their recent skid has brought back the nightmares of September 2011 when they gagged away a 10-game lead in just over a month. I said the Braves would go 8-22 the rest of the way this season.

Chipper Jones promptly silenced me by capping off an amazing comeback win against the Phillies with a three-run walk-off blast. A friend then called me out about my earlier rant, to which I jokingly replied "9-21."

Or was I joking? Taking the emotion out of Chipper's blast, I'm still not convinced this team has totally fixed its problems.

I hope I'm wrong, but there's still plenty of choke in this team. They can't score runs. Last year, it was a slumping offense and a tired bullpen. This year, the bullpen is fine. The starters are up and down, but overall decent. The offense is just bad. So, for the record, here is how I possibly see another nightmare September going:

They started the month with a split with the Phillies (the first game was August 31). So that's 1-1.

Four against the Rockies: I predicted a split when I was doing the math on Sunday. With Tuesday's loss, they're right on pace. 2-2 vs Colorado. 3-3 in the month.

Three in New York: Medlen is pitching one, and he's been fantastic since joining the rotation. I think that's the only one they get. 1-2 in New York. 4-5 in September.

Three in Milwaukee. The Brewers are surging. Sweep. 4-8 in September.

Three at home against the Nationals. Washington will be very close to wrapping up the division, and the Nationals have dominated Atlanta all year. Sweep again. 4-11.

Three in Miami. The Braves always play poorly there, but the Marlins aren't great. I'll say 1-2 there. 5-13.

Three in Philadelphia. The Phillies are playing much better. They'll win this series. 6-15.

Three at home with Miami. Again, a perennial thorn in Atlanta's side. Braves get one here. 7-17.

Three at home with the Mets. This is the only series win I predict. Two out of three. 9-18

Three in Pittsburgh in the regular season's final series. The Pirates may be on the cusp of their first playoff berth since 1992, when Sid Bream was safe at home. It would be poetic justice for Pirates fans for them to knock Atlanta out. That's what scares me the most: the schedule sets up so perfectly for Pittsburgh to have a great moment like that. Sweep. 9-21.

Help us, Andrelton Simmons. You're our only hope.

So, that's how I see the potential disaster. The Braves need a true, consistent spark. Dan Uggla likely isn't coming back mentally this year. Brian McCann is too hurt to play (just my gut feeling there). The only hope for this team is if Andrelton Simmons comes back and can add some pop to the lineup.

The top of the lineup (Bourn, Prado, Heyward, Chipper, Freeman) is doing alright overall. They just get left on base a lot. With three automatic outs at the bottom of the order, that happens. I hate to put it all on Simmons, but he is the spark this team needs.

If he comes back and hits, they have a chance. A guy at the bottom of the order who can pick up those remaining base runners and turn the lineup over can do a lot. If not, it's going to be another sad September in Atlanta.

College Football Picks - Week 1

College football is back! That means my college football picks are, too. Get fired up.

For those new to the program, welcome to my third year of putting an already suspect reputation on the line to make picks for entertainment purposes only. I've done pretty well picking winners. However, after one of my old college roommates challenged me to pick against the spread, I've added that to the blog. It keeps me humble, for sure.

The only change to the blog will be that now that I no longer live in Oklahoma, I won't necessarily pick Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Tulsa every week. They'll still make appearances, though. Enough chat. On to the picks...

Swing your sword

Mike Leach is ready to return to college football.

Washington State at BYU -12.5 (Thursday)
Mike Leach is back, and he begins his Washington State regime against his alma mater, BYU. I think Leach will do alright at Washington State, but not right away. BYU won 10 games last year. Wazzu won 4. Washington State should improve offensively and may look alright, but look for Riley Nelson to lead BYU's Cougars to enough points to cover.
The pick: BYU 35-21

For real again?
#24 Boise State at #13 Michigan State -7 (Friday)
This is the routine for Boise State: win one "test" early, and then hope to win out and get into the BCS. Does a win here mean they are "for real?" I don't know about that, but it does mean they have a clear path to the BCS, as the only real challenge on the schedule after this appears to be BYU. Both teams are breaking in new quarterbacks, so I don't expect either team to be crisp offensively. I like Michigan State's defense to put the clamps on a rebuilt Boise State offense and stop the insanity before it begins.
The pick: Michigan State 27-17

Luck of the Irish... literally
Notre Dame vs Navy +15.5 in Dublin, Ireland
For the second time in program history, Notre Dame and Navy will meet in Ireland. While I'm concerned about Notre Dame's lack of playmakers on offense, the unproven quarterbacks and a green secondary, I am not too concerned about this game. I don't think Notre Dame can get more than seven wins this year against their schedule, but this should be one. The Irish should have enough to win comfortably, but I think Navy keeps it just close enough to give Irish fans heartburn.
The pick: Notre Dame 31-17

Back to Oklahoma
Tulsa at Iowa State +1.5

Former Nebraska QB Cody Green takes over in Tulsa.

I have to get at least one Oklahoma team in this week. I can't abandon the state completely... yet.
This game actually intrigues me, though. Tulsa's offense should be really good if Nebraska transfer Cody Green comes along as TU hopes he will. Their running backs are very talented, and they should be able to score a lot of points this year. As Oklahoma State knows all too well, strange things happen in Ames. Plus, Paul Rhoads continues to build confidence there. I have to take the Cyclones at home.
The pick: Iowa State 30-27

Rocky Mountain Showdown
Colorado -6 vs Colorado State in Denver, CO
The good news for Colorado State is that the Rams hired Alabama offensive coordinator Jim McElwain to fix things. Unfortunately, he didn't bring any Crimson Tide players with him. Brighter days should be ahead, but not right now. Colorado isn't exactly tearing it up right now either (only 3 wins last year, just like CSU), but the Buffs are definitely ahead of the Rams. It won't be pretty, but Colorado wins. Fortunately for folks in Denver, there will be much better football at Sports Authority Field after these guys clear out.
The pick: Colorado 24-17

Earn your stripes
#14 Clemson -3.5 vs Auburn in Atlanta, GA
Tiger on Tiger crime. Clemson looked great at times last season, but really stumbled down the stretch. The Tigers lost three of their last four. Yes, that one win (in the ACC Championship) did get them into the BCS, but they were absolutely embarrassed in the Orange Bowl. Auburn, meanwhile, came down to earth after a national championship season two years ago. Can Gene Chizik get Auburn back to its championship form?
If the game was at Auburn, I might like War Eagle to make a statement. Instead, it's at a neutral site (the Georgia Dome). I think Sammy Watkins starts the season with some big plays to get Clemson off to a good start.
The pick: Clemson 28-24

Showdown at Jerry World
#8 Michigan vs #2 Alabama -13.5 in Arlington, TX
It's the marquee match-up of the opening weekend. I'm 90 percent sure Alabama is better, I'm just not sure how much better. Yes, they're the national champs and they return starting QB A.J. McCarron. Beyond that, there are plenty of unknowns as several other starters from the championship team are in the NFL now, especially on defense (only four returning starters).
Michigan obviously returns electrifying playmaker Denard Robinson, but I'm going to trust that Nick Saban has the talent on his defensive depth chart to keep him in check. It may be close at halftime, but Alabama will wear Michigan down.
The pick: Alabama 35-21

Bluegrass Rivalry
Kentucky at #25 Louisville -13.5 (Sunday)
In-state rivalry games can always be tricky, but I think Louisville will actually be a respectable Big East BCS representative this year. Charlie Strong has done a nice job building the program, and Cards fans are expecting big things out of quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. Look for a big game from him as Louisville coasts past the Wildcats.
The pick: Louisville 42-24

Upset pick
SMU +10 at Baylor (Sunday)

I'm curious to see how former Texas
QB Garrett Gilbert fares at SMU.

I'm not against going out on a limb this early in the season. SMU is a double digit underdog in Waco. Maybe I have too much faith in former Texas quarterback Garrett Gilbert, who will debut for SMU. After becoming a local legend at nearby Lake Travis High School, there's no question he was unable to translate that success down the road at Texas. I am pretty sure, however, he will have a better season statistically than any QB left in Austin. I think he's a great fit for June Jones' system. On the road against a Baylor team that doesn't have Robert Griffin, I think SMU can score some points. The question will be whether or not SMU has enough on defense to slow down Baylor. I'll say yes.
The pick: SMU 33-30

ACC Opener
Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech -7.5 (Monday)
It's always tough when your season opener is against your toughest competition for your division crown. That's what these too ACC Coastal teams face. The Hokies are perennial ACC contenders, their starting quarterback returns, and they're at home. I trust Frank Beamer in Blacksburg.
The pick: Virginia Tech 31-21

I only pick ten a week, so I'll stop here. I'll throw this in is a bonus, though: Ohio and Penn State opened up at Penn State -15.5 and has plummeted to -6. Penn State lost a lot of talent to transfers, and I am a big buyer on Ohio quarterback Tyler Tettleton (son of former Major Leaguer Mickey Tettleton). I'm not putting it on the picks for this week, but watch for a Bobcats upset in Happy Valley.

After a job change this summer, I'm definitely looking forward to my first full college football Saturday on my couch in three years. I'm sure you all are, too.