College Football Picks - Week 1

College football is back! That means my college football picks are, too. Get fired up.

For those new to the program, welcome to my third year of putting an already suspect reputation on the line to make picks for entertainment purposes only. I've done pretty well picking winners. However, after one of my old college roommates challenged me to pick against the spread, I've added that to the blog. It keeps me humble, for sure.

The only change to the blog will be that now that I no longer live in Oklahoma, I won't necessarily pick Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Tulsa every week. They'll still make appearances, though. Enough chat. On to the picks...

Swing your sword

Mike Leach is ready to return to college football.

Washington State at BYU -12.5 (Thursday)
Mike Leach is back, and he begins his Washington State regime against his alma mater, BYU. I think Leach will do alright at Washington State, but not right away. BYU won 10 games last year. Wazzu won 4. Washington State should improve offensively and may look alright, but look for Riley Nelson to lead BYU's Cougars to enough points to cover.
The pick: BYU 35-21

For real again?
#24 Boise State at #13 Michigan State -7 (Friday)
This is the routine for Boise State: win one "test" early, and then hope to win out and get into the BCS. Does a win here mean they are "for real?" I don't know about that, but it does mean they have a clear path to the BCS, as the only real challenge on the schedule after this appears to be BYU. Both teams are breaking in new quarterbacks, so I don't expect either team to be crisp offensively. I like Michigan State's defense to put the clamps on a rebuilt Boise State offense and stop the insanity before it begins.
The pick: Michigan State 27-17

Luck of the Irish... literally
Notre Dame vs Navy +15.5 in Dublin, Ireland
For the second time in program history, Notre Dame and Navy will meet in Ireland. While I'm concerned about Notre Dame's lack of playmakers on offense, the unproven quarterbacks and a green secondary, I am not too concerned about this game. I don't think Notre Dame can get more than seven wins this year against their schedule, but this should be one. The Irish should have enough to win comfortably, but I think Navy keeps it just close enough to give Irish fans heartburn.
The pick: Notre Dame 31-17

Back to Oklahoma
Tulsa at Iowa State +1.5

Former Nebraska QB Cody Green takes over in Tulsa.

I have to get at least one Oklahoma team in this week. I can't abandon the state completely... yet.
This game actually intrigues me, though. Tulsa's offense should be really good if Nebraska transfer Cody Green comes along as TU hopes he will. Their running backs are very talented, and they should be able to score a lot of points this year. As Oklahoma State knows all too well, strange things happen in Ames. Plus, Paul Rhoads continues to build confidence there. I have to take the Cyclones at home.
The pick: Iowa State 30-27

Rocky Mountain Showdown
Colorado -6 vs Colorado State in Denver, CO
The good news for Colorado State is that the Rams hired Alabama offensive coordinator Jim McElwain to fix things. Unfortunately, he didn't bring any Crimson Tide players with him. Brighter days should be ahead, but not right now. Colorado isn't exactly tearing it up right now either (only 3 wins last year, just like CSU), but the Buffs are definitely ahead of the Rams. It won't be pretty, but Colorado wins. Fortunately for folks in Denver, there will be much better football at Sports Authority Field after these guys clear out.
The pick: Colorado 24-17

Earn your stripes
#14 Clemson -3.5 vs Auburn in Atlanta, GA
Tiger on Tiger crime. Clemson looked great at times last season, but really stumbled down the stretch. The Tigers lost three of their last four. Yes, that one win (in the ACC Championship) did get them into the BCS, but they were absolutely embarrassed in the Orange Bowl. Auburn, meanwhile, came down to earth after a national championship season two years ago. Can Gene Chizik get Auburn back to its championship form?
If the game was at Auburn, I might like War Eagle to make a statement. Instead, it's at a neutral site (the Georgia Dome). I think Sammy Watkins starts the season with some big plays to get Clemson off to a good start.
The pick: Clemson 28-24

Showdown at Jerry World
#8 Michigan vs #2 Alabama -13.5 in Arlington, TX
It's the marquee match-up of the opening weekend. I'm 90 percent sure Alabama is better, I'm just not sure how much better. Yes, they're the national champs and they return starting QB A.J. McCarron. Beyond that, there are plenty of unknowns as several other starters from the championship team are in the NFL now, especially on defense (only four returning starters).
Michigan obviously returns electrifying playmaker Denard Robinson, but I'm going to trust that Nick Saban has the talent on his defensive depth chart to keep him in check. It may be close at halftime, but Alabama will wear Michigan down.
The pick: Alabama 35-21

Bluegrass Rivalry
Kentucky at #25 Louisville -13.5 (Sunday)
In-state rivalry games can always be tricky, but I think Louisville will actually be a respectable Big East BCS representative this year. Charlie Strong has done a nice job building the program, and Cards fans are expecting big things out of quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. Look for a big game from him as Louisville coasts past the Wildcats.
The pick: Louisville 42-24

Upset pick
SMU +10 at Baylor (Sunday)

I'm curious to see how former Texas
QB Garrett Gilbert fares at SMU.

I'm not against going out on a limb this early in the season. SMU is a double digit underdog in Waco. Maybe I have too much faith in former Texas quarterback Garrett Gilbert, who will debut for SMU. After becoming a local legend at nearby Lake Travis High School, there's no question he was unable to translate that success down the road at Texas. I am pretty sure, however, he will have a better season statistically than any QB left in Austin. I think he's a great fit for June Jones' system. On the road against a Baylor team that doesn't have Robert Griffin, I think SMU can score some points. The question will be whether or not SMU has enough on defense to slow down Baylor. I'll say yes.
The pick: SMU 33-30

ACC Opener
Georgia Tech at Virginia Tech -7.5 (Monday)
It's always tough when your season opener is against your toughest competition for your division crown. That's what these too ACC Coastal teams face. The Hokies are perennial ACC contenders, their starting quarterback returns, and they're at home. I trust Frank Beamer in Blacksburg.
The pick: Virginia Tech 31-21

I only pick ten a week, so I'll stop here. I'll throw this in is a bonus, though: Ohio and Penn State opened up at Penn State -15.5 and has plummeted to -6. Penn State lost a lot of talent to transfers, and I am a big buyer on Ohio quarterback Tyler Tettleton (son of former Major Leaguer Mickey Tettleton). I'm not putting it on the picks for this week, but watch for a Bobcats upset in Happy Valley.

After a job change this summer, I'm definitely looking forward to my first full college football Saturday on my couch in three years. I'm sure you all are, too.