The Strasburg Decision

This is one of those blogs in which, even as I start typing, I'm not 100% sure where I'm going. I'm pretty sure, but I could talk myself in and out of the decision ten times before I decide where I sit.  This much-debated Stephen Strasburg decision is a tough one.

My first look at Strasburg, when he was at
San Diego State. We all knew he was a star then.

I remember seeing Strasburg when he came to Fort Worth for the Mountain West tournament as a much-hyped college pitcher throwing over 100 mph. He was worth the price of admission. You just knew he was going to be a franchise arm for someone.

The Nationals know they have a star, so they are exercising extreme caution with a guy who has already undergone Tommy John surgery. The plan was to shut him down this season after 160 innings. Then something crazy happened: they became World Series contenders a year ahead of schedule. 2012 was supposed to be a step forward, but not like this. Bryce Harper was ready sooner than expected, the pitching staff clicked and the Nationals are slowly pulling away in the NL East.

The Washington Nationals can win the World Series this year. THIS year! Yet, they are committed to shutting down their ace? It's quite a predicament, but the pros and cons are pretty obvious.

Why you shut him down
- It is what the doctors suggested. It's the safe option for an arm that could be worth over $200 million.
- You have him under contract for five more seasons. You want him pitching all five of those seasons. Maybe, if you protect his arm, that will work in your favor when it's time to renegotiate.
- It's less likely, but you could still win the World Series without him, and he comes back on schedule next year.
- In the playoffs, when times get tough, teams are tempted and sometimes forced to start their guys on three days' rest. You absolutely cannot do that with Strasburg, especially after he starts stretching that innings limit.

Why you keep him going
- YOU CAN WIN THE FREAKING WORLD SERIES. You need that ace who can win a playoff game when the other team is starting its ace.
- Tomorrow is never promised. Sure, it looks good for the Nationals for the next five years, but you never know. Players retire, get injured, or unexpectedly stop producing. If you can win now, win now.
- Strasburg says he's fine and wants to keep going
- Those 160 innings are an inexact science. It's not like once he gets to that 161st inning, his arm falls off. You could shut him down at 140, and he could still blow his arm out next year. You just can't predict that.

I'm not a Major League coach. I'm not a doctor. But I've never fully subscribed to the idea of pitch counts and innings as how long you stick with a pitcher. I think they are more like indicators for you to pay closer attention to a guy's command and velocity. It's more about how he feels and how effective he is. Some guys wear down at 90 pitches. Others are just at strong at pitch 120 as they are at pitch 10. I know Nolan Ryan is on board with this. He wants his Texas starters to pitch as long as they can. They've been to back-to-back World Series.

To be fair, though, Texas does have two starters out for the year with arm trouble. Was that because they were overused? You can't prove that one way or the other.

Strasburg will watch the postseason
from the bench. Is that the right call?

If Strasburg says he feels fine, and the doctors say his arm is structurally sound, I say you roll the dice and let him keep going. Like I said, future success is not promised to any franchise. The Nats have a shot at a championship right now. They should go all in.

Is it a risk? Sure. But I suppose pitching him even 1 inning is a risk to some extent.

Ultimately, it's not my arm and it's not my decision. I won't lose a dime based on this. The Nationals, Strasburg and Scott Boras (his agent) all have a lot of cash on the line. While I'm sure Boras is also looking long term for his client's health, the only opinions that matter are in the Nationals' front office. Strasburg will be shut down. I can't say it's a terrible decision, either, despite the fact I lean towards letting him pitch on.

Just get ready, though, if the Nationals are eliminated from the postseason because they don't pitch well enough. There will be a shot of Strasburg (and probably some of his teammates) just fuming in the dugout. And the criticism will begin.

Ten years down the road, though, if Strasburg is still in Washington and he's won multiple Cy Young Awards and led the Nationals to a World Series title or two, then the Nats will have the last laugh. Enjoy waiting that out.