College Football Picks - Week 4

First off, in honor of the late Steve Sabol, the award-winning filmmaker of NFL Films fame, I invite you to enjoy some classic NFL Films music while you read this week's picks.

Now, let's talk about last week. There was anger. There was much frustration over my showing last week: a lousy 6-4 picking winners and 4-6 against the spread. Barf.

I just have to smile and move on. I'm nervous, though. There are some very tricky spreads this week.

BYU +6.5 at #24 Boise State
Haters of non-BCS teams rejoice. The loser of this game is definitely out of the BCS party crasher picture. The winner still has an uphill climb, but neither of team will get to a BCS bowl with two losses. Despite the ugly loss to Utah, I still think BYU will be good enough to give the Broncos a game on the blue turf. I can't completely go against Boise State at home though. The game will be closer than a touchdown, but Boise State will survive... and then Utah fans will storm the field.
The pick: Boise State 28-24

Missouri at #7 South Carolina -10
A new rivalry for Missouri... I guess. The Battle for Columbia! Both teams come in with questions at quarterback. Steve Spurrier is caught between his injured starter Connor Shaw and backup Dylan Thompson, who has been great in relief of Shaw. Missouri, meanwhile, also has a banged up starter in James Franklin, although he's confident he'll play. Regardless, this Columbia will be a very tough place for Missouri to win. The Gamecocks just might be the best team in the SEC East, and this is their chance to show it.
The pick: South Carolina 42-28

Oregon State at #19 UCLA -11.5
Time will tell if UCLA has finally found the guy to wake the sleeping giant that is the Bruins' football program. UCLA is off to a really good start, though. The Bruins seem to have great balance on offense with running back Johnathan Franklin and quarterback Brett Hundley. Those two have helped UCLA average 622 yards of offense through three games.
Considering how bad Wisconsin has looked through three games, I can't give Oregon State too many bonus points for that win, although it was a good one for them. UCLA's offense is light years ahead of Wisconsin's right now, and it will show on Saturday.
The pick: UCLA 49-21

#2 LSU -18 at Auburn
Auburn is 1-2 and barely escaped UL-Monroe last week. It almost feels like panic time, like War Eagle desperately needs a good win. Well, here comes LSU. That's bad news for anyone, but especially for a struggling team. Sure, going on the road in the SEC is tough, but LSU is just way too far ahead of Auburn. I can't see the upset. Maybe Auburn covers at home, but that's about all I'll give them. Actually, no, I won't do that, either.
The pick: LSU 40-17

#18 Michigan +6.5 at #11 Notre Dame

Some Michigan fans fired the first shot this week,  as someone hung
this banner outside one of the gates at Notre Dame Stadium.

Is this the part where I drink the Irish Kool-Aid and choke on it? Based on recent history, picking the Irish to start 4-0 with two wins over Top 25 teams seems ludicrous. Any time in the last 15 years when the Irish have seemingly started off "hot," they've eventually gotten exposed in embarrassing fashion.
Notre Dame has played well, though. No question about it. The defense has been great, although the loss of senior safety Jamoris Slaughter hurts a lot.
Two things to consider about Michigan: First, Notre Dame has yet to solve Denard Robinson. The senior is 3-0 against the Irish (although he only saw spot duty as a freshman). Second, there's not much of a reason to be down on Michigan. The Wolverines' only loss was to an Alabama team that might be able to beat the 49ers right now.
As people have noted, however, the overall Irish team speed is noticeably better this season. I think that and the home field will help Notre Dame pull out a thriller.
The pick: Notre Dame 30-27

#15 Kansas State +14 at #6 Oklahoma
Just when I was ready to think Kansas State could make a run at the Big 12 title, I saw reasons for doubt last week against North Texas. The tackling wasn't good, and K-State let North Texas hang around a lot longer than it should have. Maybe that was a wake up call just in time for a huge game in Norman. The Sooners struggled at UTEP, but blew out an overmatched Florida A&M team. Stoops rarely loses at home, but I think 14 points is a lot to spot what I think should be a refocused Wildcat team. OU will survive, though.
The pick: Oklahoma 36-27

#10 Clemson +14.5 at #4 Florida State
Florida State doesn't have too many speed bumps on the way to a game in Miami, whether that's the Orange Bowl or the BCS Championship. This is definitely one of those speed bumps, though. Clemson has plenty of talent to make this game, especially if Sammy Watkins gets loose like he did last year. He had 141 yards receiving and 2 touchdowns in last year's win over the Seminoles.
While the competition hasn't been great (actually, it's been borderline awful), the fact that FSU has outscored its opponents 176-3 is nothing to sneeze at. Chris Thompson is my player to watch in this one. The running back, who suffered two broken vertebrae last year, looked great against Wake Forest and could make a big difference in this game, too. Florida State's defense is great, but is it great enough to help the 'Noles blow out Clemson? I think the Tigers are better than that. This one will be close.
The pick: Florida State 24-21

Fresno State at Tulsa -5.5
Fresno State certainly put on a show last week, as the Bulldogs blasted an awful Colorado team 69-14. As I've said before, though, Tulsa is a talented offensive squad. Nebraska transfer Cody Green looks comfortable at quarterback, and he has a talented stable of running backs behind him. Look for a lot of points, but a few more on the Tulsa side.
The pick: Tulsa 45-36

#22 Arizona +23.5 at #3 Oregon 

Sports Illustrated called Oregon's De'Anthony Thomas
the fastest man in football. No argument from me.
(Image courtesy Sports Illustrated)

It's a battle of two ranked teams, but the spread sure doesn't make it seem that way. Oregon is a huge favorite. And why not? The Ducks are once again loaded on both sides of the ball, and I do think they'll win comfortably. Like Sports Illustrated said this week, speed wins. That Oregon speed will do exactly that once again. However, 23.5 points is a lot to cover against an Arizona team that actually looks pretty decent. Rich Rodriguez will get that program going, but not enough to win this game. The only thing that can stop Oregon this week: the SI cover jinx.
The pick: Oregon 48-28

Baylor -7.5 at Louisiana-Monroe
Baylor should send some thank you cards to Arkansas and Auburn for making them aware of how talented ULM can be. The fact that ULM is only a 7.5-point home 'dog against a Big 12 team shows how much Vegas respects this team that has never even been to a bowl game. Kolton Browning is the real deal at quarterback, and he'll play well again. Baylor, though, has talent to spare and should control the line of scrimmage. Browning will get his, but the Bears will score plenty of points. Art Briles will not get caught off guard.
The pick: Baylor 45-31

Here's to hoping I get back on track. If I don't, I promise I won't get upset and just walk away.