College Football Picks - Week 3

I was one better on the spread and one worse on the winners compared to Week 1. In Week 2, I went 7-3 picking winners and 6-4 against the spread. Thanks for nothing, Vanderbilt and Auburn. But my week wasn't as bad as some.

We've got another conference debut, a not-so-happy reunion, and a big game that suddenly doesn't seem so big. On to the picks...

Big 12 Debut
#16 TCU -21 at Kansas

TCU begins Big 12 play this week against Kansas.

Horned Frog fans have been anxious to join the Big 12, and they couldn't get a nicer welcome mat than Kansas. I have to thank my friend and KU alum Mike Rigg for bringing this Charlie Weis quote to my attention: When asked about TCU this week, he said, "Their coaches are trying to tell their players how good we are, but they just saw us lose to Rice. So, psychologically, we could have an advantage there."
So, losing to Navy, Syracuse and Connecticut at Notre Dame was Charlie's way of getting USC to lower its guard? Nice, try Charlie. KU has no advantage, psychologically or otherwise, in this one. My prediction? Pain.
The pick: TCU 45-17

The Randy Edsall Bowl
Connecticut -2.5 at Maryland
Randy Edsall left Connecticut for Maryland, and some Terps fans are wishing he hadn't. Maryland was an awful 2-10 last year and barely got by William and Mary to start this season. The Terps aren't very good, but let's be honest: Connecticut isn't getting back to the BCS anytime soon either. I do think, however, that the upperclassmen will be fired up to face their former coach. I'll take the Huskies in an ugly one.
The pick: Connecticut 14-10

Suddenly not so great
#1 Alabama -20.5 at Arkansas
A few weeks ago, I liked this as a possible spot for Alabama to get tripped up early. Arkansas is (was?) a talented offensive squad and has the Tide at home. After that ULM disaster, though, the Hogs suddenly don't look so tough. Plus, Tyler Wilson might not even play in this game. Even if he does, he probably won't be 100 percent healthy. Arkansas fans may still believe. I don't.
The pick: Alabama 41-17

Best QB Duel You Don't Know About
Ohio -6.5 at Marshall

It may be a little early to talk about running the table,
but Tyler Tettleton and Ohio might have a shot.

When we last saw the Ohio Bobcats, they were leaving Happy Valley with a big win and people were wondering if they can run the table. They blasted lowly New Mexico State last week, but this is a game in which they could get beat. Marshall quarterback Rakeem Cato, a product of a very good Miami (FL) Central High School program, has a lot of talent. I'm still a big believer, though, in Ohio quarterback Tyler Tettleton. Had he not a knee injury not cost him his junior season of high school, he would likely be in a BCS program somewhere right now. He'll lead his Bobcats to a nice road win, and there really aren't many obstacles left if you look at Ohio's schedule. They only leave the state of Ohio twice the rest of the year. That's life in the MAC.
The pick: Ohio 33-24

Reunited
North Carolina at #19 Louisville -3
Former Florida defensive coordinator Charlie Strong will look across the field and face former Florida offensive coordinator Larry Fedora in this one. The two worked together in 2003 and 2004.
Like I've said before, I'm a believer in Louisville this year. (Although, as a Marquette basketball fan, it hurts me a little inside to say anything nice about Louisville.) Charlie Strong is doing a really good job in his third year, and now most of his recruits are starting for the team. That includes Teddy Bridgewater, the sophomore quarterback who is really coming into his own. North Carolina lost to Wake Forest last week. So, I like the Cardinals big.
The pick: Louisville 38-20

Now this is feels more like an SEC game
#18 Florida at #23 Tennessee -3
The Gators battled and were able to grind out a tough road win in College Station as SEC newcomer Texas A&M (as it often did last year) faded in the second half. Florida still has some growing to do on offense, and Knoxville may not be the place to do it. While they haven't played great teams, the Vols' offense has looked crisp. Again, not against great competition, but Tyler Bray has completed 73 percent of his throws for six  touchdowns and no picks through two games. I think his strong play continues.
The pick: Tennessee 30-24

Last year was more interesting
#2 USC -10 at #21 Stanford
This is not the Andrew Luck vs Matt Barkley epic we saw last year. Stanford is still a talented team, but USC looks better at just about every position. The Trojans struggled a little at Syracuse last week, but I'll give them a pass because A.) it was a cross-country trip and B.) they eventually pulled away and won comfortably. USC will win this one relatively easily, too.
The pick: USC 44-28

First true test
#20 Notre Dame +6 at #10 Michigan State

Just how much does Brian Kelly trust Everett Golson?

Enjoy this game. Who knows what its future might be when Notre Dame is obligated to five ACC teams a year. More on that some other time.
As I thought, Purdue gave Notre Dame a much bigger challenge than Navy. The Irish did escape, although I was surprised to see Tommy Rees come in to do it. Even though it worked, Brian Kelly shuffling quarterbacks makes me nervous for the Irish. You either have a quarterback you trust, or you have no quarterbacks you trust.
Michigan State is a very good defensive team, and I think both teams will struggle to score. I think the small spread favoring the Spartans seems right. This will be a tough place for Notre Dame to win, especially if Tyler Eifert has to sit out after suffering a concussion last week. On the positive side, Cierre Wood returns to give the Irish another weapon in the backfield. The Irish will play well enough to keep it close, but come up short.
The pick: Michigan State 24-20

I'm not convinced
#14 Texas at Ole Miss +9.5
The Longhorns have done a good job scoring a lot of points on bad teams (82 points total against Wyoming and New Mexico). I'm not impressed with their offense just yet. Ole Miss is far from an SEC power, but going on the road to Oxford is still a step up for the 'Horns' unproven quarterbacks. I think Texas has plenty of talent on defense to win, but I think spotting Texas 9.5 is too much.
The pick: Texas 24-17

Just Wynn Baby
#25 BYU -4 at Utah
A real bummer for Utah this week as quarterback Jordan Wynn had to announce his retirement (a word rarely heard in college football) due to a severe shoulder injury. I'd like BYU anyway in this game, but Utah could be in rough shape without Wynn.
The pick: BYU 31-20

Finally, a game I'm not picking, but I'm definitely curious about: UL-Monroe, coming off that wild upset of Arkansas, travels to Auburn. War Eagle definitely needs a win, and should get one. Auburn is a 16.5-point favorite. Arkansas was a a 30-point favorite, though. I really loved the gutsy play-calling from ULM and the poise shown by quarterback Kolton Browning. It would be great to see more of the same this weekend.

I'll leave you with this: As I wrote that previous paragraph, I had to catch myself to be sure to avoid using words like :"heroic" and "courageous" when describing athletes. I try to always refrain from doing that, but especially this week. In the end, it's just a game. The real heroes are out there protecting our freedom and saving our lives. Never Forget 9/11.