College Football Picks: Week 8

Last week was pretty disastrous for yours truly. I went 5-5 on winners, and Jim Mora best summed up my performance against the spread: 2-8! Yuck.

I drop to 52-18 on winners and (gulp) 33-35-2 against the spread. Not good.

Here comes a bounce back week... I hope.

UCF at #8 Louisville (-12.5) (Friday)
UCF is a good team with a pretty decent offense, but I stand by my opinion that Louisville is two touchdowns better than anyone else in the AAC. If this game was in Orlando, then maybe it could be a trap for the Cards. It's not.
The pick: Louisville 49-28

#5 Florida State at #3 Clemson (+3)

Can Jameis Winston leap Florida State into the national
title discussion with a win at Clemson?

It's one of the key games that will shape the national championship picture. The winner of this game is likely to be number 3 behind Oregon and Alabama when the first BCS standings come out. Despite how great Jameis Winston has been for the 'Noles, I'm still a little surprised to see Clemson as a home underdog. The Tigers already beat one top five team at home this year, and I think they'll pull it off again.
The pick: Clemson 35-34

#16 Texas Tech (-6) at West Virginia
I'm still not sure how exactly West Virginia beat Oklahoma State, because I don't see much in the Mountaineers' offense. Maybe lightning strikes twice at home and they surprise Texas Tech, but I'll pick the Red Raiders' offense to run away with this one.
The pick: Texas Tech 45-24

#11 South Carolina (-7.5) at Tennessee
With Jadeveon Clowney back, South Carolina woke up in a big way at Arkansas. I expect another impressive road win this week as SC has to consider itself right in the mix for the SEC East title now that Georgia is struggling. Plus, South Carolina gets Missouri (without James Franklin) next week and hosts Florida in November.
The pick: South Carolina 38-24

#20 Washington (+3) at Arizona State
So, Washington really got put in its place last week against Oregon. That happens to a lot of teams that play Oregon. After that experience, I ask the same thing I asked about Northwestern after that crushing loss to Ohio State: is this team too heartbroken to rebound or can it move forward? I was way off when I said I thought Northwestern would be okay. I hope I'm not wrong on the Huskies. Arizona State is a tough opponent, but I still think Washington is a talented team.
The pick: Washington 31-30

#22 Florida (-3) at #14 Missouri

Good news, Missouri: you're leading the SEC East.
Bad news: You have to maintain that lead without Franklin.

Yes, Georgia had injuries, but Missouri's win in Athens was still impressive. The Tigers' offense was clicking, and they made enough plays on defense to win. Unfortunately, Missouri now faces what Georgia did: an important home game against a ranked team while missing a key piece on offense. QB James Franklin is out at least a few weeks, and Florida's defense should take advantage.
The pick: Florida 24-20

#6 LSU (-8) at Ole Miss
Look for a lot of points in this one. LSU's offensive is talented, and Ole Miss is dangerous at home. The Rebels almost took down Texas A&M last week, and they get another tough draw this week. Ole Miss may be a little spent after a tough loss last week, and LSU will get its offense going again after a struggle against Florida.
The pick: LSU 42-31

TCU at #21 Oklahoma State (-7.5)
Blame injuries, off the field stuff, bad luck, whatever. The cold hard fact is that TCU has yet to play really well in the Big 12: 5-7 after a year and a half. That's not awful, but it's worse than the Frogs had hoped for. I think TCU will improve and eventually be a solid team in the conference, but I don't think it happens this week. The defense is pretty talented, but the offense will have a tough time keeping up with Oklahoma State in Stillwater.
The pick: Oklahoma State 42-33

#9 UCLA (+6) at #13 Stanford

Brett Hundley could cause a lot of problems for Stanford.

Stanford was stunned at Utah last week. While I still think the Cardinal are BCS good, I also think UCLA may be. Stanford has a great defense, but I'm concerned that offense, while good, may not be explosive enough. On the other side, I love what I see from UCLA's Brett Hundley. I think UCLA gets a big win this weekend and puts themselves in the BCS - and maybe national title - conversation.
The pick: UCLA 31-28

USC at Notre Dame (-3)
It's the first big test for USC interim coach Ed Orgeron, who got a win against Arizona in his debut. While I expect the Trojans to continue to play better with Kiffin gone, I think the challenge in South Bend will prove too much. Notre Dame's defense will make enough plays to hold on for a win.
The pick: Notre Dame 38-34

College Football Picks: Week 7

If you want 8 out of 10 football picks, I'm your guy. I went 8-2 for the fourth week in a row on winners. I'm sitting pretty at 47-13 on winners this year.

If you want great results against the spread, run away. I went a lousy 4-6 there to drop to 31-27-2. Ohio State's wild last second cover against Northwestern cost me a .500 week. But it cost other people a lot more. Oh well. On to this week's picks.

Arizona at USC (-6) (Thursday)
After a week off, the Trojans take the field with interim head coach Ed Orgeron. I'm not sure if the former Ole Miss head coach will fix anything or give the team any energy, but I don't think losing Lane Kiffin can hurt USC at all. Arizona at home is a very winnable game, and USC should be fine.
The pick: USC 27-17

Texas vs #11 Oklahoma (-14)

Could this be the end for Mack Brown?
Or could the shock us all with a win?

It's Mack Brown's last stand, and I think everyone knows it. Even Mack. I joked over the weekend that they couldn't set this line high enough for me. They didn't. Texas has had some its worst losses in this game under Brown (and against Stoops, of course): 63-14 in 2000, 65-13 in 2003, 55-17 in 2011 and 63-21 last year.
I think this year's Texas team is worse than any of those teams, and the Longhorns will be without starting quarterback David Ash. I asked a friend recently - a big Texas fan - what has gone so wrong for Mack Brown. He said Brown's biggest sin is that he is routinely outcoached by Stoops in this game and fails to adjust to the new wrinkles Oklahoma annually brings while also failing to bring any new wrinkles of his own. Texas fans are hoping freshman QB Tyrone Swoopes could be that x-factor. I don't see it.
OU under Stoops always gets up for this game. Texas under Brown has been hit or miss. Losing this game is one thing. Routinely being embarrassed by your powerhouse neighbors to the north in front of dozens of high-profile recruits is why Texas fans hate this game so much lately.
I fully expect Oklahoma to blow past this reeling Texas team and make Brown's exit from Austin all but guaranteed.
The pick: Oklahoma 56-13

#9 Texas A&M (-6) at Ole Miss
There's some upset potential here for A&M, because Ole Miss certainly has some talent. The problem, as we've discussed before, is that their talent is young. Things didn't go well for the Rebels against Alabama, and I don't think they'll go well here. While Ole Miss will score some points at home off that A&M defense, Manziel and the Aggies will pull away for the win.
The pick: Texas A&M 44-31

#5 Stanford (-9) at Utah
Possible letdown for Stanford? After escaping Washington last week, the Cardinal hit the road to take on a Utes team that's had a few extra days to prepare after a Thursday game.
That said, I (like many) believe Stanford is BCS-bound. They have some injuries - real or not - so that may slow them down, but I don't think the Cardinal will have too much trouble with Utah.
The pick: Stanford 38-24

#25 Missouri at #7 Georgia (-8)
A fully healthy Georgia team blows out Missouri in Athens, but the Bulldogs have been devastated by injuries recently. Three key players on offense are now out for the season (two last week plus Malcolm Mitchell), and Todd Gurley is still questionable with that ankle and Michael Bennett is also out for this game.
Georgia's defense, while not outstanding, is not missing the type of personnel that the offense is. Georgia's offense should keep Missouri from blowing up like it did against Vanderbilt last week. The question is if Aaron Murray and the Dawgs will score enough points. I think they will, but it might not be pretty.
The pick: Georgia 31-21

#17 Florida at #10 LSU (-7)

Tyler Murphy gave Florida a spark. Can he win in Death Valley?

Speaking of SEC teams hurt by injuries, the Gators are missing key players on both sides of the ball, including starting QB Jeff Driskel. Tyler Murphy played well in his place against Arkansas, but this trip to Baton Rouge will really test him and Florida. LSU is one of the top teams in the country, and the Tigers have their eyes on the SEC Championship (even if everyone assumes Alabama will win the SEC West over them and Texas A&M). I'm expecting an impressive effort from an always-improving Zack Mettenberger and LSU.
The pick: LSU 35-17 

#2 Oregon at #16 Washington (+14)
Even in defeat, Washington proved last week that it is a legit threat to get into the BCS. The Huskies went toe-to-toe with one of the nation's elite on the road and almost got a victory. Now, however, they face a critical game with Oregon. They need this win or the BCS is likely out of reach. A 14-point spread against a legit top 15 team at home seems like a lot, but maybe not against a team like Oregon.
The uncertain status of D'Anthony Thomas has me concerned for the Ducks, though. Their high-powered offense should be enough to get a win, but it won't be easy. Physical teams like Stanford and SEC opponents have slowed down Oregon in the past. The Huskies will hang around.
The pick: Oregon 38-31

#19 Northwestern (+10.5) at Wisconsin
Speaking of teams who looked great in defeat, Northwestern almost took down mighty Ohio State last week. The question now: are they confident or devastated moving forward? I don't think Pat Fitzgerald will let his guys be mentally weak. Vegas, however, seems to think Northwestern is in for a beating.
I not only think the Wildcats will hang with Bucky at Camp Randall, I'll take the Wildcats for an upset win, which would be their first in Madison in 13 years.
The pick: Northwestern 31-28

#14 South Carolina at Arkansas (+6)

Will Clowney be on the field or sideline this week?

South Carolina should be on upset alert. Going on the road with the apparent turmoil surrounding Jadeveon Clowney's willingness to play? Dangerous. Unfortunately for Arkansas fans, I don't think Arkansas is quite good enough to take down this SC team. They may hang around, but South Carolina will win close... and ugly.
The pick: South Carolina 27-24

#18 Michigan (-2.5) at Penn State
While the Wolverines had some close calls in September, they are still unbeaten. Penn State isn't, and the Nittany Lions are coming off a rough loss to Indiana. After a couple close calls, Michigan woke up a little and blew past Minnesota. The line seems low to me, and I think Michigan will keep improving leading up to the big rivalry game with Ohio State.
The pick: Michigan 35-27

College Football Picks: Week 6

No, my blog hasn't been shut down. I'm back at it.

I'm nothing if not consistent. Another week of 8-2 on winners. That's three in a row. The spread was tricky because Vegas nailed two on the button, resulting in two ties. So, I was 5-3-2 there.

Texas (-9) at Iowa State (Thursday)
Strange things can happen in Ames, especially at night games. Texas and Mack Brown, though, have their backs against the wall. They hear the calls for change and that people have lost faith in the program. With Oklahoma looming next week, Texas can't afford to be caught looking ahead. Being a Thursday night game and considering how these two teams have looked this year, I think there's a chance this game is very sloppy. In the end, though, Iowa State should make a few more mistakes and Texas will pull away late.
The pick: Texas 27-17

#12 UCLA (-5) at Utah (Thursday)
I know Utah can be a tough place to play, but this line seems really low to me. UCLA looks like a legit top 15 team to me, and Utah seems kind of "middle of the pack in the Pac-12." The Bruins should be just fine on this trip... I think. Thursday night games are tricky. Still going with my gut.
The pick: UCLA 35-17

Georgia Tech at #14 Miami (-5.5)
Miami looks to be the top contender to win the ACC Coastal division. This is a chance to prove it. Georgia Tech was not impressive last week at home against a Virginia Tech team that I assumed had taken a big step back. Maybe I was wrong about VT, and maybe I'm wrong about Miami; but I think the Hurricanes will make a solid statement at home.
The pick: Miami 38-21

#6 Georgia (-10.5) at Tennessee

After one of the biggest wins of his career, Aaron Murray
needs to avoid a letdown this week at Tennessee.

There is some serious letdown potential here for Georgia: going on the road after escaping a tough (yet overall successful) first month of the season. Georgia now appears to have a very manageable road to Atlanta, where a win in the SEC Championship may mean a ticket to the National Championship Game.
But they still have to win every game between now and then. The Bulldogs may be without Todd Gurley, who is day to day with an ankle injury. Even without him, Georgia's offense is explosive and loaded with talent. I don't think Tennessee, even at home, will be able to keep up.
The pick: Georgia 42-21

TCU (+10.5) at #11 Oklahoma
Although it was against a bad SMU team, TCU looked to finally hit its stride last week. Unfortunately for them, Oklahoma is also getting better. Blake Bell's confidence is growing, and it may continue at home.
TCU, though, won't get embarrassed. The Frogs will play well in this game, so I'll take the 10.5 points. I just think Oklahoma is one possession better.
The pick: Oklahoma 31-24

Missouri at Vanderbilt (-2)
It's the last time we can say it: James Franklin vs. James Franklin. The Missouri QB is a senior, and... well... with USC (and maybe Texas) being open, who knows how long Vanderbilt will have its coach. Believe it or not, Mizzou is the only unbeaten team in the SEC East, but this is the Tigers' first SEC game of the season. While Mizzou has a future NFL receiver in Dorial Green-Beckham, Vanderbilt's Jordan Matthews looks pretty tough to me. He may outshine the highly-touted DGB in this one. I'll take the home squad.
The pick: Vanderbilt 42-35

#15 Washington at #5 Stanford (-7)
While most people assume the Stanford/Oregon winner will win the Pac-12, this is a huge opportunity for Washington to make us rethink that. It's the beginning of a brutal back-to-back for the Huskies: at Stanford this week and home for Oregon next week. Two wins will have people in Seattle talking BCS. Two losses will keep the Huskies a notch behind the two elite programs out west.
Stanford just looks so tough to me, and I think the Cardinal will get better and better. We even got a glimpse of Barry J. Sanders last week. Washington will play well, but Stanford will play better.
The pick: Stanford 40-31

Notre Dame vs. #22 Arizona State (-5.5) (in Arlington, TX)

Notre Dame will be rocking some fancy Shamrock
Series uniforms in Texas. How will the offense look?

Arizona State put the final nail in Lane Kiffin's coffin at USC, and it's no surprise to see that offense as a favorite against Notre Dame. The Irish offense has yet to look all that impressive. We did see Andrew Hendrix play more at QB last week, and I think that's just the beginning of Brian Kelly's moves at quarterback.
In Tommy Rees's defense, it's not all his fault. The defense definitely misses the seniors from a year ago.
I'm excited for this game, though, because I'll be there. I'll be tailgating - peacefully - and I'm hoping to see a good game. I'm trying to come up with a logical reason why Notre Dame will win. I'm struggling to come up with one. Barring a breakthrough on both sides of the ball for the Irish, I think Arizona State's offense will be too much.
The pick: Arizona State 38-31

West Virginia (+27.5) at Baylor
After looking like they might finish right down there with Kansas in the Big 12, West Virginia showed signs of life last week with a nice win over Oklahoma State. The Mountaineers may have found their QB in Clint Trickett.
Baylor's offense is explosive and has put up video game numbers this year. The Bears' competition, however, has been lousy. This is step up, but I'm not sure how much.
Look for WVU to be efficient on offense and keep that Baylor offense on the sideline, but it won't be enough. The Bears will win at home, but not by four touchdowns.
The pick: Baylor 42-24

Ohio State at Northwestern (+7)
Northwestern fans have had this game circled on the calendar, and so have fans who don't like Ohio State. This and the Michigan game are the only two games left in which there's a decent chance Ohio State could lose. College GameDay will be in campus, and Northwestern fans will be in a frenzy. I think Pat Fitzgerald's guys will play a spirited game and be in it all night. I just think Ohio State's talent will rip their hearts out at the end.
The pick: Ohio State 31-27

College Football Picks: Week 5

The recent trend continues, as I did well on winners (8-2) but was once again .500 against the spread. Overall, it was a big week for chalk: 57 of 59 FBS games were won by the favorites. The only two losers: Arkansas State and BYU. Yep, both picked by me.

It might not get much better this week as there are a few-head scratching lines that could make or break me this week... probably break.

Virginia Tech at Georgia Tech (-7) (Thursday)
In the past, I've always given Virginia Tech the benefit of the doubt despite slow starts. I always think the Hokies will be in the ACC title mix, but I'm not so sure this year. VaTech has looked very sluggish so far. Georgia Tech, meanwhile has looked very impressive with the nation's fourth-ranked rushing attack (albeit against a modest schedule).
Since they're on the road, I think the frustrating downhill slide continues for the Hokies.
The pick: Georgia Tech 31-21

Iowa at Minnesota (+1)
I'm picking this game because why not. I'll take a one-point home 'dog. Minnesota has played a pretty weak schedule, but the Gophers are 4-0 and have run the ball well. I'll take them over a team that will likely finish in the middle of the Big Ten with them.
The pick: Minnesota 24-21

#6 LSU at #9 Georgia (-3)

Todd Gurley and the Bulldogs face their third top ten team.

This is the toughest game of the week for me to call. LSU's offense is better than it has been in recent years, although maybe the defense may be a step behind. Not much, though.
Zach Mettenberger (who first enrolled at Georgia before being kicked off the team) looks like he may have turned a corner for LSU, but his hot-and-cold play in 2012 still makes me a little nervous for the Tigers.
Georgia plays so well at home, and that offense can score on anyone. The pressure is really on Georgia here, though. They want a national title, and this is the end of a brutal first month for them. If they can somehow get a win, their schedule gets really soft after this. Georgia could realistically expect to finish the regular season 11-1, which means they'll win the SEC East and have a shot to win the league. Lose this game, though, and it's almost impossible for a two-loss team to play in the national championship game.
On a neutral field, I think LSU might be a shade better. In Athens, I'll take the Dawgs.
The pick: Georgia 35-31

Arizona at #16 Washington (-7.5)
It's two 3-0 teams in the Pac-12 opening up conference play. Granted, their schedules haven't been that outstanding, but both of these teams are in the top ten in the nation in rushing yards and scoring defense (Arizona is 5th and 3rd, respectively, while Washington is 9th and 8th). Washington is at home, and the Huskies' impressive dismantling of Boise State definitely makes me agree with Vegas.
The pick: Washington 35-27

#21 Ole Miss at #1 Alabama (-17)

Nkemdiche and the young Rebels face their biggest test yet.

Ole Miss brought in a star-studded recruiting class so it could compete with the big boys of the SEC. So far, the young kids have looked really good, but this is a big step up from Vanderbilt and those struggling Longhorns.
If this was Alabama's first game right after Texas A&M, I'd say there would be some letdown potential here. But, it's not. So, I won't. The Ole Miss freshmen might get a little wide-eyed in Tuscaloosa, and Alabama will be dialed in.
The pick: Alabama 42-21

USC at Arizona State (-6)
I can keep this short: USC has yet to look impressive. Arizona State looks like it should be competitive in the Pac-12 (albeit a clear step behind Stanford and Oregon). The Sun Devils are at home and should be able to outscore the inconsistent USC offense.
The pick: Arizona State 27-17

#10 Texas A&M (-3) at Arkansas
This is the head-scratching line of the week. The wise guys in the desert must know something I definitely don't. Texas A&M is one of the best teams in America, and Arkansas lost to Rutgers last week. I don't see how this is a three-point game. I was thinking more like a three-possession game. We'll see, but I'm going with my gut: A&M is way, way better.
The pick: Texas A&M 45-21

#14 Oklahoma (-3.5) at #22 Notre Dame

Blake Bell has a chance to shine for the Sooners in South Bend.

This line also looks a little low to me. Notre Dame has not looked impressive through four games. Oklahoma, coming off a bye, may be hitting its stride. The Sooners unleashed Blake Bell two weeks ago against Tulsa and discovered that he actually can pass the ball quite well. I saw a friend make this point on Twitter: Collin Klein couldn't throw well, yet he dominated the Big 12. Blake Bell can be successful if he's not restricted, and I think Oklahoma has discovered that. Bell's mobility will cause a lot of problems for Notre Dame, and I think Tommy Rees will have a really tough time against the Sooners' defense. Will this be the game that forces Brian Kelly to look at another quarterback? Maybe, maybe not. I do, believe, however, that the Sooners will win this game with relative ease.
The pick: Oklahoma 35-20

#12 South Carolina (-7) at UCF
This line also looks a tad low. The 12th-ranked team in the country, an SEC team at that, going up against an AAC team? Sure, UCF may be one of the better teams in the AAC, but I can't imagine they'd stay within a touchdown of South Carolina by the end of the day.
The pick: South Carolina 35-24

#23 Wisconsin (+7) at #4 Ohio State
This is one of the few games on Ohio State's schedule in which the Buckeyes will truly be tested. Wisconsin's running game has proven to be very strong, and Melvin Gordon may be a star in the making in Madison. The Badgers' running game should keep the Buckeyes' offense on the sideline more than they're used to. The game will be close, but Ohio State will survive.
The pick: Ohio State 24-21

Hopefully, I finally snap this funk against the spread. After all, all bad things must come to an end.

College Football Picks: Week 4

Good news: It was another solid week on winners as I went 8-2.
Bad news: Still struggling against the spread: 5-5.

But at least I didn't insult my readers.

It's a very underwhelming slate of games this week, but I'll give it a shot.

Boise State at Fresno State (-3.5) (Friday)

Friday night is a good chance to watch Derek Carr of
Fresno State if you haven't seen him yet. Pretty good QB.

There should be plenty of points in this one. While Boise State's offense has been always been successful under Chris Petersen, Fresno State's Derek Carr is off to a nice start for Fresno State (661 yards, 8 TD, 1 INT). I did say earlier this season that the Boise State "magic" is gone, but this game isn't about magic. They're two pretty evenly matched teams. I do like the Bulldogs at home, though.
The pick: Fresno State 38-31

Tennessee (+17) at #19 Florida
Tennessee is coming off a crushing blowout loss at Oregon, but that happens to a lot of teams who go to Eugene. While Florida should absolutely win this game, a three-possession spread seems like a lot for a team with a struggling quarterback. Jeff Driskel has looked very average, and maybe a bye week will help him get back on track.
Florida's running game and defense should be enough to get the win, but I think Tennessee will keep it close.
The pick: Florida 24-14

North Carolina at Georgia Tech (-6)
Georgia Tech may quietly be a contender in the ACC. While Florida State and Clemson duke it out for the Atlantic Division, the Yellow Jackets are just as likely as anyone to win the Coastal. Granted, they've only played two games (against Elon and Duke), but still: 356 yards rushing per game and just 14 total points allowed are two very nice stats.
They may allow more than 14 in this game, but that rushing attack is really clicking, and I think Tech wins again.
The pick: Georgia Tech 30-17

Utah (+7) at BYU
As long as both teams are competent, I like to pick rivalry games to be close. BYU had an amazing showing against a bad Texas run defense two weeks ago, and the Cougars had last week off to get ready for this one. Utah will come with a much more balanced attack while BYU will run the ball, although unlikely with as much success as in the Texas game.
I'll take the Cougars' running game in a close one.
The pick: BYU 34-31

Utah State at USC (-6.5)
I'm down on USC as much as everyone else is, but 7 points still seems like a low number against Utah State. Even if the Aggies did put up 122 points in their last two games (52 on Air Force and 70 on Weber State), this should be a little bit of a different challenge. I expect USC's defense to play well, and the offense will build on last week's performance against Boston College.
The pick: USC 34-24

Michigan State at #22 Notre Dame (-6.5)
What to make of Notre Dame after a nail-biting win at Purdue? The offense clearly isn't as versatile with Rees as it was with Golson, and the losses of Manti Te'o and Kapron Lewis-Moore apparently have hurt the defense a lot more than I anticipated. The Irish are simply a top 25 team (maybe), not a top 10 team.
Can a top 25 team beat Michigan State by a touchdown at home? Probably. Connor Cook was recently named the MSU starter after giving the offense a spark last week. I don't think he'll outscore Notre Dame, though.
The pick: Notre Dame 30-21

Arkansas State (-4) at Memphis
Poor Memphis is still building. Despite having a QB who is easy to cheer for in Jacob Karam,  the Tigers just can't put a lot of points on the board right now. Bryan Harsin's Red Wolves can. They should be able to get at least a touchdown more than the Tigers.
The pick: Arkansas State 28-17

#23 Arizona State at #5 Stanford (-7.5)

Kevin Hogan and the Cardinal begin Pac-12 play this week.

Arizona State was beyond lucky to escape with a win against Wisconsin last week. A trip to Palo Alto against a team that could play for the BCS championship will not be quite as forgiving. Stanford hasn't been quite as dominant offensively as some predicted, but I'm confident the Cardinal will get better and better as the season goes along. Stanford will take care of business at home.
The pick: Stanford 33-24

Missouri (-5) at Indiana
Missouri should have enough talent to go to Indiana and win, but Kevin Wilson's offense is starting to click a little bit. The Hoosiers dropped 42 on a respectable Bowling Green squad and sit at 2-1 on the season. I keep waiting for that monster game from Missouri's Dorial Green-Beckham, and I think it's coming soon. He was the top overall recruit in America coming out of high school, and he'll break out sooner or later. Maybe he gets in the endzone a couple times to help Mizzou get comfortable road win.
The pick: Missouri 38-27

Kansas State (+5.5) at Texas
Can it get worse for Mack Brown? Oh yeah, especially when the Longhorns' nemesis, Kansas State visits. Even in down years, Kansas State always gives Texas tough time. While Texas is reeling, I think the athleticism of Texas will be enough to beat a Wildcats team that is lacking some punch, although K-State's offense has come around against some weaker opponents. They'll run  the ball and frustrate Texas by hanging around, but Texas really needs a win at home.
The pick: Texas 27-24

May the jinx of my picks not affect your favorite team. Enjoy the weekend.

College Football Picks: Week 3

It was a so-so showing last week: 7-3 on winners, but I watched in horror as I went just 5-5 against the spread. I was grumpier than Thayer Evans at an Oklahoma State pep rally.

So, my week wasn't great, but I can think of one or two guys who had worse ones. Let's hope this week goes better.

#24 TCU (-3.5) at Texas Tech (Thurs)

Baker Mayfield has been impressive for Texas Tech.

Very disappointing news for TCU over the weekend as Casey Pachall's season (and TCU career) may be in jeopardy. He suffered a broken (non-throwing) forearm and may miss eight weeks. Even if he returns, Trevone Boykin may be entrenched as the starter and Pachall may have to settle for spot playing time.
Texas Tech has a little bit happier QB situation: freshman walk-on Baker Mayfield has been outstanding. Yes, the competition has been bad, but 780 yards, 7 TD and completing over 71% is solid work.
Doing that against TCU's defense will prove much more difficult. Getting all the first team reps in practice should benefit Boykin, albeit in a short week. That part has me a little concerned, but I'll pick the Frogs to get a nice road win.
The pick: TCU 34-28

#7 Louisville (-13) at Kentucky
I include this game because it's the only remote possibility, in my opinion, that Louisville loses before December (at Cincinnati to close out the season). The schedule gets really soft in the American Athletic Conference after this. Louisville may win every game in October and November by 20+ points. Not that there's anything wrong with that.
This is a rivalry game on the road against an SEC team... an SEC team that lost to Western Kentucky. Louisville shouldn't be worried.
The pick: Louisville 40-14

Iowa at Iowa State (+2.5)
Well, it's a rivalry, but neither team has looked all that impressive so far. Iowa is 1-1 after losing to Northern Illinois and getting by Missouri State. Iowa State lost to Northern Iowa to begin the season.
With a bye week to prepare, I'll put a little faith in Paul Rhoades. This game may not be much to watch, but I'll take the home team.
The pick: Iowa State 17-14

#16 UCLA (+4.5) at #23 Nebraska
UCLA is playing with heavy hearts after wide receiver Nick Pasquale was killed in a car accident last week.
Tragedy aside, I do like this UCLA team. I think Jim Mora is doing a nice job, Anthony Barr is a difference maker on defense, and there are plenty of talented players on that offense. The Bruins have had an extra week to prepare for a road trip to Lincoln, and I think they'll really get after Taylor Martinez.
Nebraska will do fine in Big Ten play, but I think this may be the toughest opponent on their schedule (Michigan the other contender there. Nebraska does not play Ohio State in the regular season).
UCLA will go to Lincoln and get an impressive, hard-fought win.
The pick: UCLA 31-30

Boston College (+14.5)  at USC
USC is a two-touchdown favorite. That seems like a lot for a team that didn't even score two touchdowns against Washington State. The USC offense is a mess, and I can't help but wonder how long it will be before Lane Kiffin tries taking the redshirt of freshman Max Browne and throws him in at QB. While Browne may be a star one day, I don't think he would fix everything this year. On the other hand, he couldn't be less productive than the guys USC has been playing.
The Trojans should still win at home against an average Boston College team, but I'll take my chances with those 14.5 points.
The pick: USC 27-14

#1 Alabama (-7.5) at #6 Texas A&M

Can Manziel take down the giant again? I don't think so.

I had this as my most anticipated game entering the season, and I still basically feel that way. Thank goodness (for the fans' sake) Manziel is playing. It's what everyone has wanted to see: if lightning strikes twice and Manziel takes down mighty 'Bama again... or if Saban gets his revenge.
Unfortunately, I don't think this game will live up to the hype. Saban has had an extra week to prepare (forget the time he spent in the offseason). A&M's defense has had its question marks against Rice and Sam Houston State, and I think the Tide will move the ball very well. Manziel will have his moments, and the Aggies won't get embarrassed. In the end, though, A&M will have a tough time stopping Alabama.
The pick: Alabama 44-31

Georgia Tech (-8) at Duke
While I sang the praises of Duke as a slowly rising program last week (and they came through for me), that was against Memphis. This frustrating rushing attack of Georgia Tech presents a different challenge. Duke may hang around and get the home crowd excited, but I think Tech will quiet them in the fourth quarter.
The pick: Georgia Tech 41-31

#4 Ohio State (-15) at Cal
While I definitely think Cal has a rising star in QB Jared Goff, he won't be enough against these Buckeyes. Whether Braxton Miller plays or not, Ohio State should have no trouble scoring. Kenny Guiton has looked just as effective in relief. Goff may be a star eventually, but he may be in for a rough day against the Buckeyes' D. Ohio State will be just fine on their west coast trip.
The pick: Ohio State 35-17

Ole Miss (+4.5) at Texas

Texas could not make a tackle against BYU last Saturday.
How much will Greg Robinson help in just a week?

Breaking news/expert analysis: the Texas defense is pretty awful. I thought Texas wouldn't get truly exposed until the Oklahoma game, but the downfall of Mack Brown has started early this season. He "reassigned" (a fancy way of saying fired) defensive coordinator Manny Diaz after the BYU loss, but how much will Greg Robinson fix in a week?
I think the athletes on that Ole Miss offense could have a field day against Texas. Yes, the Rebels "only" won 31-13 against Southeast Missouri State, but they were up 31-0 and took their foot off the gas at halftime.
If you saw their opener against Vanderbilt, you know how explosive Ole Miss can be. Texas may be able to score a little, but it won't be enough. And the grumbling gets louder in Austin.
The pick: Ole Miss 38-31

#21 Wisconsin at Arizona State (-5.5)
These two teams have combined to destroy three lousy opponents 145-0 in the first two weeks of action. So this is the first legitimate game for both, making it hard to judge how good either team is. I lean towards the home team that has probably the most inspiring tunnel in college football.
The pick: Arizona State 31-24

Finally, I will keep an eye on the Oklahoma State game. Not because they're a 47-point favorite at Lamar, but by Saturday, a scathing Sports Illustrated report will be out. I'm sure OSU fans will proudly wear their orange and support the players, but a lot of questions will be asked. I'm curious what Mike Gundy says, whether his name is all over the report or not.

The game will be the easy part, but it will be a long week in Stillwater.

College Football Picks: Week 2

It was a respectable 2013 debut as I went 8-2 on winners and 7-3 against the spread. Going out on a limb for Cal cost me, but overall I was content with the effort.

Three quick takeaways from the first weekend (possibly topics to expand on in future blogs):

1. Attack of the FCS - The artists formerly known as I-AA had quite a showing: 8 wins over FBS schools, including Eastern Washington taking down #25 Oregon State, North Dakota State stunning Kansas State in Manhattan, and McNeese State blowing out South Florida. Was this an anomaly or is the gap between FCS and FBS closing?

2. Faking injuries - College football fans may not want to hear this, but faking injuries is becoming as much a part of their game as it is in soccer. Just as soccer players routinely dive and roll around in agony to draw a yellow card, college football players are now being instructed by their coaches to pretend to be hurt to disrupt offensive tempo. It's as troublesome as flopping in the NBA. It's brutal to watch, but it's here and I'm not sure it can be stopped. I wish I had a good solution to this. Maybe I will in a future blog.

3. Ejections - I'm all for player safety, but the NCAA may have gone a step too far with this rule that makes officials eject players for what they deem to be targeting. Some of these calls are so borderline, and it seems extreme to toss a guy out for what MIGHT be targeting. Some of these guys are just hitting the way they have been taught for about 10 years. If it's a blatant attempt to decapitate a player, sure throw that guy out, but I think a hit like the one we saw in the Cal/Northwestern game should not be ejection-worthy. An unfair ejection is going to cost a top 10 team a huge game at some point this season, and there are going to be riots among those fans.

Takes done. On to this week's picks:

#12 Florida (-3) at Miami (FL)

If Mack Brown is productive, Florida is a dangerous team.

While the Gators were a little sluggish against Toledo, Florida has to be happy with Mack Brown. The former blue chip prospect may be finally ready for a breakout season. If he and freshman phenom Kelvin Taylor (son of Gators great Fred Taylor) can help Florida control the clock, that means Jeff Driskel has to do a lot less to help Florida escape Miami with a win. I'll take the SEC talent on a top-12 team, even on the road in a rivalry game.
The pick: Florida 24-20

Houston (-3) at Temple
An overall uninspiring week two slate has me picking a game from this brutal American Athletic Conference. Temple was vulnerable to the big play against Notre Dame, and it had trouble moving the ball. To be fair, I think a lot of teams will have trouble against that ND defense. Houston's offense put up 62 on an overwhelmed Southern team. They'll have a tougher time in Philadelphia, but not significantly tougher. Big plays should lead Houston to a win.
The pick: Houston 42-34

Cincinnati (-8) at Illinois
After blowing out a team in the bottom half of the Big Ten last week, Cincinnati goes on the road this week to take on another one. Illinois barely escaped becoming the ninth FBS team last week to lose to an FCS team as it defeated Southern Illinois 42-34.
Tommy Tuberville has an above average team on his hands, and I'm sure he has Cincy talking BCS since the Bearcats are probably the second best team (behind Louisville) in the otherwise very weak American Athletic Conference. His squad will get it done on the road.
The pick: Cincinnati 31-21

#6 South Carolina at #11 Georgia (-3)
Georgia's brutal first month continues. After an upsetting opener at Clemson, now the Bulldogs come home to try to stop the most feared player in college football, Jadeveon Clowney. Despite the loss, Georgia's offense looked explosive, and I don't see that changing at home. The loss of Malcolm Mitchell hurts, but the offense scored 35 points without him last week. They may not score quite that many this week, but they may not have to. South Carolina did have 406 yards of offense against UNC, but it relied mostly on big plays to score its points. Those may be harder to come by between the hedges. Georgia rebounds from a tough loss.
The pick: Georgia 27-21

Duke (-6) at Memphis
I wish this was a basketball game. Duke, though, is viewed by many as a slowly rising team in the ACC. The Blue Devils are not going to win a championship any time soon, but they could become a regular bowl team for the league. Duke is getting better, and Memphis has quite a bit of work to do. Even on the road, I think Duke wins by more than one possession.
The pick: Duke 38-28

Syracuse at #19 Northwestern (-12)

Pat Fitzgerald and the Wildcats should
comfortably win the "Prose Bowl."

Cleverly dubbed the Prose Bowl, it features two schools known for producing quality journalists, particularly sports journalists... although there's another school out there that I think is just as good. Maybe I'm biased.
Northwestern pulled out a 42-41 thriller last year as Ryan Nassib led Syracuse on a furious late-game rally to take the lead before the Wildcats scored in the final minute. Nassib is now a New York Giant, and Syracuse does not have an NFL QB on its roster now.
Northwestern, on the other hand is building and looked pretty good in a tricky west coast opener against Cal. The Wildcats should be quite comfortable at home, and all of its journalist alumni should have a comfortable win to write about.
The pick: Northwestern 42-24

#15 Texas (-7) at BYU
Texas has struggled in recent years, but people sure are quick to pile on when things don't go perfectly. Twitter was ready to fire Mack Brown at halftime when UT got off to a slow start and trailed New Mexico State 7-0. Then Texas won 56-7 like it was supposed to.
BYU, on the other hand, started slowly and finished slowly at Virginia in a 19-16 loss. While I'm not ready to jump on the "Texas is back" bandwagon until after the Oklahoma game, the 'Horns should have way too much for BYU.
The pick: Texas 35-17

Colorado State (+10) at Tulsa
Ten points seems to be a big number for a team that looked as sluggish as Tulsa did last week. It's hard to judge Colorado State after just one game, a two-touchdown defeat to rival Colorado (another rebuilding program). The Tulsa offense was expected to be a lot more explosive, and I don't think it will be quiet two weeks in a row. However, the problems from last week might not be completely fixed in a week. The Rams might hang around, but TU will get a win.
The pick: Tulsa 27-20

Western Kentucky (+14) at Tennessee
Could Bobby Petrino make it back-to-back wins in the state of Tennessee over SEC teams? WKU defeated Kentucky in Nashville last week. This should be a step up in competition certainly, and I'd be stunned if the Hilltoppers won in Knoxville. Petrino intrigues me, though. While, he may make some poor decisions off the field, he can coach. He'll put together a game plan that will make Vols fans sweat, but Tennessee won't lose at home.
The pick: Tennessee 34-21

#14 Notre Dame (+3.5) at #17 Michigan

Tommy Rees made some nice throws against Temple.
Those won't be as easy to come by in the Big House.

Notre Dame's win over Temple was about what I expected: convincing but not spectacular. Tommy Rees looked great, but he had all day to throw. He won't have all day in the Big House. Amir Carlisle, though, could be a big factor in this game if he can get enough touches. He had 68 yards rushing on just seven carries and looked very explosive.
Michigan crushed a clearly overmatched Central Michigan team. Notre Dame's defense will be a much stiffer test for Devin Gardner and company. Despite the 59-9 blowout, Michigan's passing game was not outstanding: 14-of-21 for 221 yards, 1 TD and 3 picks between Gardner and freshman Shane Morris. The running game will have to control the game if Michigan wants to win this one. Freshman Derrick Green could shine.
Debate about whether or not this is a "historic" rivalry if you want, I think it's a good one. It's two of the winningest programs in the sport. They first met in 1887, and I know there are huge gaps in the rivalry (they only played twice between 1910 and 1978). I've been on this earth for 33 football seasons, and these two teams have met in 27 of them. From the Rocket to Desmond Howard to Shoelace, there have been some great games that I remember. To me, it's a traditional rivalry that I look forward to each year, and I hate that it's going away soon.
These two played a wild shootout under the lights in Ann Arbor two years ago that Michigan won in the final seconds. I think this time around will be a little different: a low-scoring rock fight that goes to the home team. It will be close, but I think the road atmosphere and Michigan's defense will be too much for the Irish.
The pick: Michigan 14-13

Finally, the curious line of the week to me: Kansas is a 23-point favorite over FCS opponent South Dakota, a team that was 1-11 last year. Yes, that's a bad team visiting Lawrence, but Kansas hasn't beaten anyone by that many points in three years. I'm not rooting against Charlie Weis and I think he has a promising QB in Jake Heaps, but that just seems like a big number next to Kansas for any opponent.

Enjoy week two, and watch out for that top step.