Bravo Blog: 2012 Preview

I'm a few days late with my preseason Braves thoughts, but here goes anyway. This year's Braves team has plenty to like and plenty to be concerned about.

I'll start with the positives. The great arms at the back of the bullpen all return. Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters and Erik O'Flaherty were a dominant trio in 2011. As they did a year ago, they should help the Braves win some close games by shutting down teams late.

All-Star catcher Brian McCann is always a positive, and Martin Prado is back healthy. Hopefully Dan Uggla can hit more like he did in August than he did the rest of the season. Uggla struggled for the entire first half in 2011, but started hitting like an MVP in July and August before fading in September.

Speaking of fading in September, let's move on to the reason why I am not too optimistic about the 2012 Braves: they brought back essentially the exact same team that collapsed in 2011. They are basically hoping the same team can fix a few things and finish the deal this year. That concerns me.

Atlanta didn't add any offense in the offseason,
which means they need Heyward to rebound.

The Braves struggled to score runs all year, and they really did nothing this offseason to fix that. They are basically hoping that Jason Heyward can hit like he did in 2010 to ignite the offense. Other than that, Frank Wren is just banking that Chipper Jones can stay healthy enough to play 120 or more games while Martin Prado and Dan Uggla overcome the struggles that hindered them last year. That's being pretty optimistic if you ask me.

The Braves starting rotation is loaded with both talent and question marks. If Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens, Tommy Hanson and Brandon Beachy all stay healthy the entire year, the Braves will be pretty competitive. Jurrjens and Hanson have struggled a lot with injuries, though. Both missed most of September last year as Atlanta was collapsing. The Braves need those guys to make it through September and into October. Again, that's optimistic.

The bigger concern with the Braves rotation, however, is its inability to go deep into games. Jurrjens went seven or more innings nine times in 23 starts in 2011, with just two of those coming after June. Hanson went seven or more innings seven times in 22 starts. That wears out the bullpen over the course of 162 games. Last year, Kimbrel blew three critical saves in September. Jonny Venters was unhittable all year but looked human in September. They were gassed.

Kimbrel and Venters are great, but they can't pitch every day.

Derek Lowe rarely made it past the sixth inning in 2011, and the Braves traded him to make room for top prospect Mike Minor. That was addition by subtraction, but can the rookie eat some innings that Lowe couldn't to save some bullpen innings? That may be asking a lot, but we'll see.

Meanwhile, teams like the Phillies and Rangers have several guys who take their games past the seventh inning almost every time out. That's why they are strong late in the year. Their bullpens aren't spent.

The Marlins and Nationals are on the rise, and the Phillies are still way better than Atlanta. So, finishing fourth isn't impossible for this team. The keys will be Heyward and Uggla's production and how much the rotation can save the bullpen over the course of the year.

My expectations are low, but I'll still hope this team can stay in the hunt and pull something off in September.