College Football Picks: Week 1

Enough with the preseason press conferences, it’s time to get on the field. College football season is finally here. That means, for better or for worse, my picks are back. I did it for the past two years on another site, and now I’m moving it over here. For those new to the program: I put my already questionable reputation on the line by picking ten games every week from the local (in Oklahoma) to the big national games to the totally obscure, all the while providing links (some informative, some humorous) to enhance your blog-reading experience. Let’s go!

 

The locals

Tulsa at # 1 Oklahoma

I didn't like TU's chances WITH Damaris Johnson.
Without him, Tulsa could be in for a beating in Norman.

Oh, Damaris Johnson, what have you (allegedly) done? He hasn’t been charged with anything yet, but it appears that he helped his girlfriend steal about $3,000 worth of good from Macy’s. TU head coach Bill Blankenship had no choice but to suspend his do-everything star until the investigation is completed. While Johnson’s crime may not be the dumbest decision in sports history, it’s up there. In just a couple ill-conceived moves, he may have thrown away his senior season, a chance at conference title, a shot at being a first team All-American, an outside run at being in the Heisman discussion, and he’s probably hurt his NFL stock as well.

I didn’t like TU’s chances in Norman before Johnson’s suspension. Now? Oh, boy. The hope coming in was that Johnson might be able to give G.J. Kinne some short fields with his return abilities, spread out the defense to help the running game and maybe break a big play or two. Now, Kinne has to rely on a lot of inexperienced receivers, and Norman is not the place to break in some new blood. It could get ugly, folks.

The pick: OU 56-10.

Louisiana at #9 Oklahoma State

Look for Weeden and Blackmon to put on a show Saturday.

They would prefer to be known as the University of Louisiana, but you and I will always call them UL-Lafayette. In Stillwater, they’ll probably just be known as the first win. OSU came out sloppy in Lafayette last season and actually trailed at the half, 21-17, before blowing out the Cajuns 54-28. Expectations are sky high in Stillwater, and it sounds like the focus has been there throughout fall camp. The Cowboys look ready to get into the BCS. Whether they do or not remains to be seen, but I expect this team to be fully focused from the opening kick and take care of business in the opener.

The pick: OSU 51-17

 

Opening Night

Villanova vs Temple at Lincoln Financial Field

I suppose I should pick one game from opening night on Thursday, and this one is as good as any. If it were a basketball game, we’d call it a Big 5 match-up. It’s not, so we call it the Mayor’s Cup. Despite the fact Villanova is FCS and Temple is FBS, they’ve split their meetings in 2009 and 2010. Villanova is consistently one of the top teams in FCS, and rumors of the Wildcats stepping up to join the Big East have been floated out there for a while now.

As for this game, Villanova is breaking in a young quarterback, and Temple returns several key starters on defense. Temple wins with turnovers.

The pick: Temple 28-17

Friday Night Lights

#14 TCU at Baylor

Is Casey Pachall ready to lead
the Frogs? He better be.

I want to pick a Friday game, and where better to go for a Friday night contest than Texas? The Horned Frogs are looking to build off their Rose Bowl championship and get back into the BCS, but they are breaking in a new quarterback in Casey Pachall (pronounced PAW-haw). On the other side, Baylor returns an experienced playmaker at QB in Robert Griffin III. I saw a little of both of these guys during my days covering high schools in Texas, and the gap back then between Pachall (at Brownwood) and Griffin (at Copperas Cove) wasn’t as big as you might think. Pachall was highly recruited and is capable of making plays with his arms or his legs. He’s obviously not as fast as Griffin, who has world-class speed, but I am curious how Pachall’s game translates to college. Having a more experienced quarterback and being at home is normally enough to get my pick, but not in this case. TCU returns a lot of talent on defense and a very deep collection of running backs. I think there’s just a little more overall talent on the TCU roster.

The pick: TCU 27-21

Shaping the national title picture

#4 LSU vs #3 Oregon at Cowboys Stadium

I like the experience of Darron Thomas and LaMichael James
to lead the Ducks past LSU in this week's marquee match-up.

I said last week that this is one of my most anticipated games of 2011, and it still is. The messy situation at LSU, however, has certainly cast a bit of a shadow on this game, but not enough to completely take the excitement out of it. It’s still a top-five showdown that will give the winner a leg up in the national championship hunt.

The suspension of LSU quarterback Jordan Jefferson isn’t as devastating as it sounds. I’m not 100 percent sure starting Jarrett Lee over Jefferson is a downgrade. Losing a playmaker like Russell Shepard at wide receiver, however, hurts a little more. LSU’s defense, on the other hand, is still loaded and will give the Ducks fits, much like Auburn’s defense did in last season’s national title game.

The Ducks aren't without suspensions either. They'll be without All-American corner Cliff Harris, who also contributes a lot on special teams. Oregon, though, returns an experienced quarterback and a Heisman contender at running back. So, to recap: Oregon is missing a corner and punt returner. LSU is missing a quarterback and receiver. I have to go with the team that has the Heisman contender and is more confident in its starting quarterback. The Ducks want to return to the national title game, and this is a critical step.

The pick: Oregon 20-17

The Big 12 present… past?... future???

SMU at #8 Texas A&M

The Aggies want out of the Big 12, and that could become official any second now. SMU wants in the Big 12, and we’ll just have to see how that plays out. While one game certainly won’t persuade the Big 12 presidents one way or the other, June Jones and his Mustangs would love to make a statement by pulling a stunning upset in College Station. While I think A&M may be ranked a tad high at number eight, they do have a lot more talent, especially on defense and in the running game. SMU should be able to score some points, but A&M will get turnovers to pull away in the second half.

The pick: Texas A&M 38-21

The Holtz Bowl

South Florida at #16 Notre Dame

Putting my reputation out there a little with this one, but
I think Crist has NFL potential. We'll see if he shows it.

Former Notre Dame walk-on and assistant coach Skip Holtz returns to South Bend, a place he would probably love to finish his career as a head coach if he ever gets that opportunity. As usual, Notre Dame enters the season with BCS hopes, hopes that (as usual) may or may not be realistic. The Irish should be very concerned about USF quarterback B.J. Daniels, who has the skills to have a Denard Robinson-type day against Notre Dame.

That said, I think Irish quarterback Dayne Crist is finally ready for a breakout season. After last season’s crushing loss to Tulsa, Notre Dame showed steady improvement by knocking off Utah, USC, and Miami down the stretch. They did that with Tommy Rees at quarterback. Rees played well, but I don’t think he has the NFL pedigree that Crist does. Yes, I think Crist can be an NFL quarterback. I’m not saying first round (yet), but I’m saying he has the skill set: big arm, accurate, mobile, good size. I think the Irish are headed in the right direction under Brian Kelly. Daniels may cause some problems for the Irish defense, but I think Notre Dame will find a way to squeak out a win at home against a USF team that could compete for the Big East title.

The pick: Notre Dame 31-27

Battle for respect

#5 Boise State at #19 Georgia

This game was also on my list of most-anticipated games for 2011 because it’s a measuring stick for both teams. Boise State can do what it did last season: go on the road to a semi-neutral location and knock off a BCS opponent to beef up its computer numbers. Last season, you may recall the Broncos defeating eventual ACC champion Virginia Tech in Baltimore. This year, they meet Georgia in Atlanta.

Of returning college quarterbacks, the signal caller with the highest rating in 2010 was Boise State’s Kellen Moore. Number five on that list? Surprise: Georgia’s Aaron Murray. The Bulldogs may be more desperate for respect than Boise State, especially with some calls for Mark Richt to be fired. While going against Boise State has proved foolish in the past, I like the Bulldogs’ talent and home-state advantage.

The pick: Georgia 33-28

Independence Day

BYU at Mississippi

BYU begins life as an independent football program in SEC country. It seems like quite a challenge, but the Cougars actually are a slight favorite in this game. BYU sophomore quarterback Jake Heaps will look to build off an impressive freshman season while Ole Miss will be breaking in a new quarterback after the graduation of Jeremiah Masoli. This might be my toughest call of the week, because I’m not totally sure what either team will bring to the table, but I’ll go with the more experienced offense.

The pick: BYU 24-20

On the hot seat

UCLA at Houston

Yes, Case Keenum is still in college.

Bruin fans want to see their program finally make a leap forward under Rick Neuheisel, who is just 15-22 in his first three seasons. A road trip to Houston might not be the best place to get a “save my job” campaign started. Houston should be a top contender in Conference USA, and Case Keenum is entering his 17 season… okay, it’s only his sixth, but the 23-year old has experience. After missing most of 2010 with a torn ACL, the Houston quarterback is poised to make a run at a conference title and maybe an outside shot at a Heisman. He flourishes in Houston’s spread offense, and I expect big numbers from him in this game and all season.

The pick: Houston 38-27

I’d like to conclude by thanking colleagues Chris Singleton and Morrell Carter for a blurb about me in a recent feature about Morrell in the Houma Courier. It was cool to hear I’m still remembered down on the bayous of Louisiana.

Enjoy the first week of games, and come back next week to check how I did.