Predicting the 2011 Chiefs

The NFL is tough to predict. There are always surprising teams that rock the boat and toss all the preseason predictions out the window. Although, if you follow the teams, you can get a ballpark idea of whether a team is closer to the Super Bowl or to the top pick in the draft.

Can Haley follow up a breakthrough 2010 with another
playoff appearance? The schedule will be much tougher.

Right now, the Kansas City Chiefs look closer to the latter than the former. They have not looked good in the preseason. The Chiefs are 0-3, and (more importantly) the first string has yet to find the endzone. Coming off a 10-6 season and a playoff appearance, there is hope in KC that Todd Haley has helped the team turn a corner. He has said he's not concerned about the preseason record and is just focusing on getting his team to the regular season healthy. Hopefully, this team does look much different when the games matter. We'll see. While I never take preseason records seriously, there is no denying the team has not looked good at all.

That said, I think the Chiefs' defense should be pretty solid this year with the talent it has returning, but I'm a bit concerned about the offense with the rebuilt offensive line and Charlie Weis's departure. Plus, the schedule is much tougher this year, which is my biggest reason for concern.

So, to set some expectations for myself, here are my week-by-week predictions for the Chiefs in 2011:

Week 1 - Buffalo - Win
The Bills are still rebuilding. I'm not sure they have a decent quarterback, and it's at home. I feel pretty good about the year starting with a W.

If Stafford is healthy, watch out for
the Lions. Seriously!

Week 2 - @ Detroit - Loss
The Lions are much improved, and Matthew Stafford probably won't be injured yet.
Week 3 - @ San Diego - Loss
The Chargers are the class of the AFC West, and it's a road game.
Week 4 - Minnesota - Win
A home game against a team with either an aging Donovan McNabb or a rookie at quarterback.
Week 5 - @ Indianapolis - Loss
Peyton Manning should be back by this game.
Week 7 - @ Oakland - Win
Coming off a bye week, the Chiefs figure some things out against a team that's always trying to figure things out.
Week 8 - San Diego - Win
Last year, the Chiefs beat the Chargers on a Monday night at Arrowhead. Let's do it again.
Week 9 - Miami - Win
Are you noticing that I'm consistently picking wins at home against teams with questionable QB situations?
Week 10 - Denver - Win
See Week 9

A trip to New England in
Week 11 could get ugly.

Week 11 - @ New England - Loss
On the road against a preseason Super Bowl favorite? Not just a loss. An embarrassment.
Week 12 - Pittsburgh - Loss
The Chiefs are tough at home, but Big Ben and the Steelers get stronger as the season moves along.
Week 13 - @ Chicago - Win
The Chiefs D frustrates and confuses Jay Cutler enough to steal one in the Windy City.
Week 14 - @ NY Jets - Loss
I don't like KC's chances on the road against Rex Ryan's defense.
Week 15 - Green Bay - Loss
They're the defending Super Bowl champs. They'll win.
Week 16 - Oakland - Win
If my predictions hold up, the Chiefs will be in the playoff hunt but desperate for a win. They'll get it at home.
Week 17 - @ Denver - Loss
As much of a mess as I think the Broncos are, I can't deny that the Chiefs always struggle in Denver.

Final record prediction: 8-8, probably second in the AFC West and out of the playoff picture. Hopefully, I'm a little off and they steal a couple more wins and get back into the playoffs. But my expectations are lowered a bit due to the schedule and the question marks on offense.