Here are some teams and tournaments that bubble teams should be worried about. To clarify, these are teams that have no chance at an at-large bid and are in leagues that have at least one team that is certain to be in the NCAA tournament.
La Salle, St. Bonaventure, UMass (Atlantic 10)
Probably no tournament will have more bubble teams on edge than the A-10. Temple and Saint Louis are the only real locks in the league. Saint Joseph's and Xavier are on the bubble, so they may or may not steal a bid by winning. There are probably three or four other teams that realistically have a shot at winning. I would be really concerned about La Salle, though. La Salle is 18-11 with an RPI of 89, which isn't awful but does put them outside of the at-large contenders. The Explorers have seven losses in the league, but all have been close. The tournament is in Atlantic City, meaning several La Salle students and fans will make the short trip from Philadelphia. St. Bonaventure and UMass could also make a run depending on the draw. Beware the A-10 tournament. It almost always steals a bid.
Cal State Fullerton, UC Santa Barbara (Big West)
A small league like the Big West makes people nervous. It has one team (Long Beach State) with strong NCAA credentials (19 wins, RPI of 36) and a bunch of teams with no business being in the field. Fullerton and Santa Barbara are the only teams that could capitalize on a Long Beach State slip up, as they are the only teams other than the 49ers that are above .500 in the league. Bubble teams everywhere are huge Long Beach State fans.
George Mason, Old Dominion (Colonial)
The Colonial is probably a one-bid league, maybe two as Drexel and VCU are at the top. A win by George Mason or Old Dominion in the finals over either of those two could take a bid away, however. The committee has shown respect to this league in the past. As we all remember, George Mason and VCU have surprisingly got in from this league in the past and made it all the way to the Final Four.
Tulsa, Central Florida, Marshall (Conference USA)
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| Jordan Clarkson and TU have been playing well lately, and they could be a team to fear at the C-USA Tournament. |
Loyola, MD (MAAC)
With 24 wins and an RPI of 42, Iona leads the MAAC and has a decent shot at an at-large. The Gaels have lost to Loyola once, however, and a loss to them in the MAAC Championship might cost a bubble team a bid. If Iona loses early in the tournament, however, Iona may not get into the field and a Loyola upset win might not steal a bid.
Northern Iowa, Illinois State, Evansville, Drake, Missouri State, Indiana State (Missouri Valley)
The Missouri Valley might have bubble teams more nervous than the Atlantic 10. Behind NCAA locks Creighton and Wichita State, there are five teams in the league at 9-9 and Indiana State right behind at 8-10. Bubble teams everywhere are pulling hard for a Jays/Shockers final, but anything could happen in this tournament.
Tennessee State, Morehead State, Tennessee Tech (Ohio Valley)
Murray State has been a bit of a hot topic this year considering how high the Racers have been ranked despite a modest schedule. All bubble teams, though, fear the Racers tripping up in their conference tournament. Tennessee State handed Murray State its lone loss on the season while Morehead State and Tennessee Tech both played very good games. Any of these three could knock off the Racers in Nashville.
Oregon, Colorado, UCLA, Stanford (Pac-12)
We've all taken our shots at how mediocre the Pac-12 is. No team in that league is a lock right now, but Washington and California look pretty good with Arizona not far behind. There is no doubt there is a lot of parity in this league. I would say just about any team has a shot at winning this thing because I have no confidence in anyone in it. Most likely, an underdog winning this tournament would just steal a bid from one of the other bubble teams in the league, but you never know. Bubble teams from other leagues, though, want Washington or Cal to take this one.
Tennessee (SEC)
I wouldn't bet a dime on it, but the Volunteers have some talent and could pull a shocker. They only lost to Kentucky by three at home (but they did lose by 25 in Lexington). If Kentucky gets caught napping, it's more likely that one of the league's tournament locks (Florida, Vanderbilt, Alabama) or bubble team Mississippi State claim the SEC tournament. Keep an eye on the Vols, though.
South Dakota State (Summit)
This one is borderline, but it's worth mentioning. The Summit League's regular season champ, Oral Roberts, isn't quite a tournament lock. Although, if ORU loses in the Summit League finals, the Golden Eagles would be 28-6 and currently have an RPI of 45. That would make them an interesting case for an at-large bid. Bubble teams would much rather ORU win the Summit League tournament and claim that bid than have someone else take it and have another bubble team in the pool. South Dakota State is the clear favorite to take the bid from ORU since the Jackrabbits handed ORU its only regular season conference loss, and the tournament is in Sioux Falls.
So, there you have it: ten potential bids that could be stolen. It's unlikely that all of these tournaments are claimed by underdogs. If you've ever watched Championship Week, though, you know at least a couple will.
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