College Football Picks: Week 5

Boom! That was the week I’ve been waiting for. I not only went 9-1, but I was also very close to the correct score in the TU/Boise State game. Overall, it was a great week that also had a stay of execution for the Big 12 and probably the greatest Twitter rant of all time from Fake Dan Beebe. (Seriously, if you have a few minutes to kill and you can handle the language, go back to September 22 and read all 41 tweets that are in all caps. Yes, I counted.)

Celebration time is over, though. Now, I get to pick a really tough week with a lot of games featuring ranked teams that could go either way. Fortunately, I (hopefully) get a couple of lay-ups with the local games.

The locals

#2 Oklahoma vs Ball State

I feel cheap picking a game with a 39-point spread, so I guess the question is really whether or not OU covers. The defense is out to make a statement after some Sooner fans are pointing at the defense as the reason they dropped a spot in the AP poll. I think Stoops and Venables get some things figured out, and the defense has a great game. Plus, there’s no reason to be concerned about Landry Jones and the offense. Plenty of points, plenty of defense. OU wins and covers.

The pick: OU 52-10 (Sooners cover)

Tulsa vs North Texas

Kinne and  the Golden Hurricane
(hopefully) finally get a break with North Texas.

The Tulsa spread is also pretty big at 23 points, and the Golden Hurricane could certainly use an easy win after playing three top 10 teams this month. From the “useless yet slightly interesting information” department: North Texas and Ball State do have one thing in common: they both have a win over Kevin Wilson’s Indiana Hoosiers.

G.J. Kinne surprised me by taking the field last week with his injured knee. He struggled, and I wonder how much he’ll play in this one. He’ll almost certainly play, but TU should have enough talent to handle North Texas without him. Look for Kalen Henderson to get plenty of snaps, and I think the running game should lead TU to a confidence-boosting win after a brutal September slate.

The pick: Tulsa 38-17

Big East Battle

#16 South Florida at Pittsburgh (Thursday)

If you just look at common opponents, USF got five turnovers and beat Notre Dame in South Bend while Pitt fell to Notre Dame at home. I’ve been really impressed with South Florida’s ability to score, and I’m still not sure Pitt has the look of a conference title contender. I believe the Bulls do, and I think there’s a good chance their season finale against West Virginia could be for all the marbles in the Big East. USF has to get past this one first, and I think it will.

The pick: South Florida 27-20

SEC Separation

#3 Alabama at #12 Florida

It’s always a marquee game in the SEC, and it’s usually an early indicator of a top contender for not just the conference title, but also the national title. Florida’s offense has been scoring a lot of points under Charlie Weis, although it hasn’t seen a defense like Alabama’s. Alabama does have one impressive road win at Penn State, but with all due respect to Happy Valley, it’s not the Swamp.

It’s a statement game for both teams, but I lean slightly towards Alabama. Trent Richardson hasn’t gotten a whole lot of touches in the first four games, but he’s made an impact when he has. I’m looking for Alabama to get him involved early and often. Florida will be able to score some points, but I think the Crimson Tide defense will cause enough chaos to keep the Gators in check.

The pick: Alabama 28-24

Red Saturday

#8 Nebraska at #7 Wisconsin

Fans in Madison already know it, but the nation
will recognize Wilson as a Heisman contender soon.

I pegged this as a game to watch back in the preseason, and it’s shaping up to be exactly what I hoped it would: a showdown of top 10 teams with a LOT of red in the crowd. The two major factors I’m looking at are the two I usually look at first: home field and quarterback. Camp Randall will be rocking on Saturday night. Just ask the 2010 Ohio State team how crazy that place can get.

The quarterbacks, however, are the key to me. Taylor Martinez can be hot and cold, and while he can make plays with his legs, I think the Wisconsin defense will keep contained. Russell Wilson, meanwhile, is playing at close to a Heisman level, and he could really enter the discussion with a primetime victory over the Huskers. I think that’s what happens.

The pick: Wisconsin 31-24

SEC Preview

#14 Texas A&M vs #18 Arkansas (at Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, TX)

Well, Texas A&M’s move to the SEC is finally official, and the Aggies hope to celebrate by defeating an SEC team this week. It’s a little sad, but it’s probably true that Arkansas will be Texas A&M’s new main “rival” since it’s becoming pretty clear that the Aggies and Longhorns won’t play each other anymore.

Both teams are coming off tough losses, but Arkansas lost a game that most probably expected them to lose (at Alabama) while A&M let a home game against Oklahoma State slip away. It’s a neutral field that will probably have a few more Aggie fans than Hog fans, and I think Texas A&M will be out to prove they can move past last week’s collapse.

The pick: Texas A&M 33-30

Removing all doubt

#13 Clemson at #11 Virginia Tech

I’m sold on Clemson. The Tigers are a legit top 15 team, but are they top 10? Former Tulsa offensive coordinator Chad Morris has definitely made a difference as Clemson has put up a total of 73 points against Auburn and Florida State over the past two weeks. The only reason to doubt Clemson: all four of their wins have been at home.

Enter Blacksburg, where Virginia Tech is usually really tough to beat. The Hokies’ résumé, though isn’t as impressive as Clemson’s. While this isn’t a pick I feel entirely confident in, I think Tajh Boyd is really settling into this offense. I think the Tigers keep rolling and escape with a statement road win.

The pick: Clemson 35-31

Two end zones this year

Northwestern at #24 Illinois

Northwestern gets Persa back. Will he be enough?

This game was played last year at Wrigley Field, and it started out as a debacle with one end zone being taken out of play for safety reasons. That only led to one of my favorite moments from the 2010 season when Northwestern picked off a pass and scored in the end zone that was out of play, right where a fan was holding a “Wrong Way” sign. Great stuff.

Illinois is off to a hot start at 4-0, but Northwestern should get a lift from returning quarterback Dan Persa. It should be a good one, but I like the Illini at home.

The pick: Illinois 27-24

Unranked but not irrelevant

Michigan State at Ohio State

It’s weird not seeing a ranking next to Ohio State, but the Buckeyes’ 24-6 loss at Miami cost them a lot of respect. Michigan State was ranked at one time as well, but got embarrassed by Notre Dame and none of their wins are very impressive (Youngstown State, Florida Atlantic, Central Michigan).

Ohio State may not be great, but they still have plenty of talent and are always tough in Columbus. I’m not sure Michigan State has quite enough to get a tough road win like this one.

The pick: Ohio State 28-20

The Rio Grande Rivalry

New Mexico State at New Mexico

Only the fact that it’s a rivalry adds interest to the 1-3 Aggies visiting the 0-4 Lobos. New Mexico State has a win over Minnesota. New Mexico is coming off a loss to Sam Houston State. That’s about all the analysis we need for this one.

The pick: New Mexico State 31-28

I’ll leave you with this: It’s not a game I’m picking, but I have to bring up that Memphis is an 18-point UNDERDOG to Middle Tennessee State. I knew Memphis wasn’t very good, but has Tiger football gotten that awful? And they wonder why no major conferences want them. They should be thankful that they’re still welcome in Conference USA.

The Big 12 as Pro Wrestlers

Just the other day, Charlie Hannema asked what Dan Beebe's pro wrestling entrance music would be. I quickly replied with Vince McMahon's "No Chance in Hell." Then it got me thinking: if Big 12 football programs were pro wrestlers, which ones would they be? I haven't watched pro wrestling in about 10 years, so my references may be a bit dated, and I'm okay with that. So, if the Big 12 were WWF/WWE....

Texas - The Rock/The Corporation

Texas has a bit of a "corporate" feel to it these days.

The beauty of comparing Texas to the Rock is that Texas fans can compare the Longhorns to the "good guy" Rock, the People's Champion. People who hate Texas can make the comparison to "bad guy" or "heel" Rock, when he sided with Vince McMahon and the Corporation. I have to say that, lately, Texas has been more like the latter. They do win, and sometimes seek an advantage by shady means like the Longhorn Network.

Oklahoma - Stone Cold Steve Austin
The beer-drinking country boy that always seems to be in the championship hunt. Always entertaining whether you like him or not.

Oklahoma State - D-Generation X
The underdogs trying to rock the boat. Plenty of talent, fun to watch, but will they ever win it all?

A&M probably thinks it can start
a "new world order" in the SEC.

Texas A&M - The Outsiders (Kevin Nash, Scott Hall)
The malcontents who abandoned the team and joined the other guys.

Texas Tech - Cactus Jack
Maybe not the most talented, but kinda quirky and likeable and has his moments.

Missouri - Chris Jericho
Competitive and occasionally in the championship hunt. His fans consider him among the elite, but not everyone agrees with that. Always good on the microphone, though, as if he were a product of Missouri's broadcasting program.

Baylor - Billy Gunn
You see the talent sometimes, but you're pretty sure he'll never be at the top.

Kansas, Kansas State and Iowa State - The J.O.B. Squad
The bottom feeders. Everyone else just piles up wins against these guys.


***Bonus: Non-Big 12 schools***

Nebraska - Bret "The Hitman" Hart
An all-time great that unfortunately left with a lot of bitter feelings.

Colorado - Goldust
Also left with some bitter feelings, but a lot less people noticed/cared.

Notre Dame - Sting
The really, really popular one that you wish would come on board, but you realize he probably never will. He's probably past his prime at this point anyway.

College Football Picks: Week 4

It was another mediocre week with a 6-4 showing. It’s time to take a break from all the yelling and shouting about conference realignment to break down Week 4.

The locals

#7 Oklahoma State at #8 Texas A&M

The Aggies' combo of Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael
could be trouble for an OSU defense that struggled last week.

For the second straight week, the national game of the week (in my opinion anyway) involves an Oklahoma school. This is the biggest road test on the Cowboys’ schedule. The key for OSU has to be the ability to stop the run. Make excuses about the wet conditions and late start if you want, but the Cowboys’ tackling was sloppy against Tulsa. The Golden Hurricane piled up 365 yards rushing against OSU, and Texas A&M has a much more powerful rushing attack.

Brandon Weeden obviously has to be sharp like he was in the Arizona game. The Aggies will be able to control the clock with that running game, and OSU has to make the most of every possession. Watching Weeden and Blackmon the past two seasons, I feel pretty confident that the offense will be sharp, put points on the board and force A&M to throw the ball a little more than it would prefer. Although Ryan Tannehill has proven to be a very effective quarterback, I’m not sure he can win a shootout with Weeden. If A&M can control the ball and the clock, the Aggies will win. If OSU makes the most of each offensive possession and puts a lot of points up, the Pokes will win. I’ll lean toward the latter, but it’s close.

The pick: OSU 35-31

#1 Oklahoma vs Missouri

It’s the valley game for the Sooners. Coming off a huge win, they face a lesser opponent, but an opponent with enough talent to pull off an upset. If this game was in Columbia, I might say an upset is possible. In Norman, where Bob Stoops is 73-2, I highly doubt it. The offense looks great. While Missouri is improving week to week, the Tigers haven’t seen a team of this caliber yet.

The pick: OU 42-24

Tulsa at #4 Boise State

No G.J. Kinne? That's a big problem for TU.

As I feared, the Golden Hurricane got blown out last week. Things went from bad to worse when G.J. Kinne injured his knee. His status is uncertain for this game, but I have to think he’s out if he has any kind of MCL injury. Kalen Henderson made a couple of nice throws, but the big concern is that he had five turnovers last week. Henderson is a talented young player, but he was clearly overwhelmed against Oklahoma State. It won’t get much easier against Boise State, where the Broncos can wear their blue jerseys on the smurf turf. The one encouraging thing TU has going for it heading to Boise is the previously mentioned 365 yards rushing it piled up on OSU. Maybe if TU can hold onto the ball and run a lot, they can hang with the powerful Broncos for a while. Unfortunately, Kellen Moore and company will likely be way too much. The bad news is that Tulsa is limping into another top opponent that should win comfortably. The good news is that the worst part of the schedule is over after this, and Tulsa can focus on competing in Conference USA.

The pick: Boise State 45-21

Game of the Week #2

#14 Arkansas at #3 Alabama

They’re both 3-0, but one has been a bit more impressive than the other. Alabama proved itself with a nice road win at Penn State, and Arkansas really hasn’t been tested yet (unless you call a 10-point home win over Troy “tested”). Alabama should have too much for the Hogs at home.

The pick: Alabama 33-24

Game of the Week #3

#2 LSU at #16 West Virginia

Jarrett Lee might be just
enough to win LSU a title.

Talk about a team that has passed some tests, LSU looks very strong. The season-opening win over Oregon was nice, and the road win over Mississippi State last week was also impressive because of the defensive effort. Dana Holgorsen has his offense in place at WVU, but I’m not sure he has all the talent in place for it to truly click on the level he wants. LSU’s defense is very strong, and it should disrupt West Virginia’s rhythm, and I think Jarrett Lee will make enough plays to give LSU another statement win.

The pick: LSU 28-24

The team I can’t quite figure out

Notre Dame at Pitt

I wanted to take a week off from picking Notre Dame, because I’m 0-3 with Irish picks so far this year. I suppose I should add that level of difficulty to this little game. Notre Dame is still sloppy, but the Irish overcame three turnovers last week to get past Michigan State. I think it’s clear what Notre Dame is: a talented offense that turns the ball over too much paired with a middle-of-the-road defense. If they turn it over, the game gets interesting. If they don’t, the offense should score more than the defense allows. Pitt is not a very strong team, sporting wins over Buffalo and Maine in addition to a loss to a mediocre Iowa team. Naturally, if Notre Dame limits its turnovers, the Irish should win. It’s just that simple.

The pick: Notre Dame: 30-21

The game formerly known as the Bowden Bowl

#11 Florida State at #21 Clemson

FSU's defense can win them the ACC.

Last week, Clemson was very impressive in a win while Florida State looked pretty tough in a loss (defensively anyway). The Seminoles have a lot of talent, definitely enough to win the ACC. Clemson’s win over Auburn was nice, but we’re still not sure how great Auburn is. As long as FSU doesn’t feel sorry for itself after that tough loss to Oklahoma, I expect the ‘Noles to rebound this week.

The pick: Florida State 35-24

Bounce back or setback

#23 USC at Arizona State

Like I thought, Arizona State was humbled last week on the road at Illinois. Now, comes the real test: can the Sun Devils refocus and get a leg up on USC in the Pac-12 South race, or do they get caught reeling and lose their second straight? It may be early, but when you look at the rest of the Pac-12 South, it’s pretty weak. It’s not crazy to think the winner of this game could win the South. USC hasn’t been all that impressive this year with wins over Minnesota, Utah, and Syracuse. The Trojans look to be down a bit, but they still may have more talent than most teams in the Pac-12 South. Arizona State, though, has looked impressive at home. Even though he was a little off last week, Brock Osweiler's quarterback play has consistently been much better than his grammar. I think ASU will get the best of a modest USC team.

The pick: Arizona State 24-21

The other guys

Cal at Washington

On the other side of the Pac-12, the Bears and Huskies begin their battle to see who finishes third behind Oregon and Stanford in the North. Neither team sports an overly impressive win. Washington got run over by Nebraska last week as the Cornhuskers piled up 302 yards rushing. The Huskies were actually close in overall yardage (464 to 420), but their three turnovers kept giving momentum to Nebraska. I think Washington cleans it up at home and edges Cal.

The pick: Washington 28-27

The token FCS game

#13 Chattanooga at #3 Appalachian State

If Colorado-Colorado State is the Rocky Mountain Showdown, can we call this one the Appalachian Mountain Showdown? No? Okay. Last year, Appalachian State rallied from 21 down to defeat Chattanooga 42-41. That’s enough useless knowledge for this blog.

The pick: Appalachian State 45-38

Well, I’m off to review a few job applications. Just got one from a Daniel Beebe. He claims he has leadership skills.

Big 12 and Big East Musings

Just when everyone was focused on the Big 12's collapse, it now appears that the Big East could beat them to it. Losing Syracuse (a founding member) and Pittsburgh would be catastrophic for Big East football. I don't think the BCS could honestly keep giving the Big East an automatic bid if it only has seven football schools. The only football schools would be West Virginia, South Florida, Connecticut, Rutgers, Cincinnati, Louisville, and TCU. Even if Villanova steps up from FCS and plays with the big boys, that's still a very mediocre conference, more than it already is.

The Big East would only have one hope to stay relevant in football: get the Big 12 leftovers, all of them. Who are the leftovers? The schools that seemingly won't have a home if Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and presumably Texas Tech all find new homes. That leaves Missouri, Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor and Iowa State. That still wouldn't make the Big East a good football conference, but it would at least make it more worthy of a BCS bid than the Mountain West or Conference USA. The argument is a lot closer if the Big East doesn't add the leftovers.

A few weeks ago, I speculated about a 20-team Big East with Syracuse and Pittsburgh. Now, take a look at the potential for that same four-division format I proposed then, only taking out those two and adding Iowa State and Baylor:

The Big East without Syracuse playing rivals like Georgetown would suck.

Hypothetical Big East Division 1
Georgetown
Connecticut
West Virginia
Cincinnati

Adding a "rivalry" like TCU-Baylor would help... I guess.

South Florida

Hypothetical Big East Division 2
Villanova
St. John's
Rutgers
Seton Hall
Providence

Hypothetical Big East Division 3
Iowa State
Louisville
Marquette
Notre Dame
DePaul

Hypothetical Big East Division 4
Kansas
Kansas State
Missouri
TCU
Baylor

It's not much more exciting, but it is possible I suppose. TCU and Baylor would enjoy a little rivalry there. I still think it's too bad that one day we could be telling our kids what rivalries used to be like. It will be a shame that college football fans could now miss out on the West Virginia-Pittsburgh rivalry, and college hoops fans could be losing some great Syracuse Big East rivalries with Georgetown and Connecticut. That's my big problem with football and the BCS: it really sours my enjoyment of basketball.

Of course, this whole Big East speculation has one huge assumption: that the league stays together at all. With Pitt leaving, one would assume that West Virginia going to the SEC could pick up a lot of steam.  The league does need a 14th team to balance out the Texas A&M addition. Maybe the SEC tries to go to 16 by adding Missouri and/or some other Big East or ACC schools? I guess we'll all find out sooner or later. Maybe one day all of this realignment speculation will stop, and I really look forward to that day.

College Football Picks: Week 3

Week two was a slight improvement for me, as I was one game better at 7-3. All three of my losses were in arguably the tightest three games of the weekend (Notre Dame/Michigan, Georgia/South Carolina, and Mississippi State/Auburn). I’ll take that and look for continued improvement in Week 3. While the realignment chatter continues to dominate the headlines, I’ll pass on worrying about the future and just focus on the present. Here’s a look at this week’s games.

The locals

#1 Oklahoma at #5 Florida State

I'm pretty sure this FSU jersey is a hoax.
At least, I really hope it is.

As dominant as the Sooners have been under Bob Stoops at home, their struggles on the road during that time period are just as well-documented. While the Sooners are a dominant 73-2 in Norman under Stoops, they are a much more modest 57-29 everywhere else (including bowls and other neutral site games).

The past is the past, though. What do these two teams bring to the table right now? The first thing that jumps out is the hideous uniform that FSU may or may not wear according to an internet rumor. (For the record, I think that’s a hoax. FSU fans are supposed to all wear crimson. I expect the team to do the same.)

On a serious note, the biggest thing that jumps out for me is the quarterback situation. Landry Jones is a serious Heisman contender with a lot of weapons. Meanwhile, this is the biggest stage that E.J. Manuel has seen. Manuel played pretty well, but not outstanding when filling for Christian Ponder last season in a critical late-season game at Virginia Tech (23 of 31, 288 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT in a 44-33 loss). Still, he at least has some big game experience, and he’ll have a rabid crowd behind him. That’s something to consider.

Even without Travis Lewis, I think the overall talent on the OU defense should be just enough to keep Manuel in check. By “in check,” I mean “stats not as great as Landry Jones’ stats.” It’s the toughest call of the week, but I think Dean Blevins said it best on Sunday night when he gave the Sooners a 50.001% chance of winning. I agree. It’s that close.

The pick: OU 31-30

#8 Oklahoma State at Tulsa

It's a 9 p.m. kickoff. That means Weeden2Blackmon all night.

Tulsa’s brutal September slate continues with a home game against the Cowboys. Unfortunately for TU, I’ll bet there will be a lot more orange in Chapman Stadium than they would prefer. Tulsa rebounded nicely last week with a dominant win at Tulane. The Golden Hurricane has adjusted to life without Damaris Johnson, and other players are starting to settle into their roles. Bryan Burnham looked good last week with 97 yards receiving and two touchdowns against Tulane. He may be G.J. Kinne’s new top target.

OSU, meanwhile, is really clicking. Brandon Weeden and Justin Blackmon look like the All-American candidates that people expected them to be, and several other guys like Joseph Randle give that offense so many additional dimensions. The Pokes have looked dominant in two games against Louisiana and Arizona. While I don’t think TU will get dominated quite as badly as they did in Norman (for the reasons I stated previously), the Golden Hurricane is once again outmatched talent-wise. OSU should win comfortably.

The pick: OSU 40-20

Bonus OSU uniform prediction: All white: helmets, jerseys, pants.

The short week

#3 LSU at #25 Mississippi State (Thursday)

I’m a little surprised Mississippi State is a four-point favorite in this one. I guess that’s why I lose my shirt every time I go to a sports book in Vegas. The Bulldogs’ defense wasn’t exactly stout last week against Auburn. LSU, meanwhile, impressed me in the opener against Oregon. The offense moved the ball, and the defense forced key turnovers. Going on the road in the SEC is always tough, but I think LSU is elite. Mississippi State had a chance to take a step towards elite last week and came up short.

The pick: LSU 28-21

You are what you are

#15 Michigan State at Notre Dame

I’ve stopped believing in Notre Dame… for now. Two games: 1021 yards of offense, 10 turnovers, 0-2. You can make excuses like “if they don’t turn the ball over, they’re great.”

But as Bill Parcells would say, “You are what you are.” The Irish DO turn the ball over, and they do it a lot. Once is a fluke. Twice is a trend. I don’t think Notre Dame turns it all around in time for a team like Michigan State, a squad that has more talent than South Florida or Michigan. The good news for the Irish: the schedule gets a little more manageable after this, and if the team can improve the turnover problems in the long haul, eight wins could be realistic heading into the finale against Stanford. This game, though, won’t go well.

The pick: Michigan State 35-24

Sign of things to come?

#23 Texas at UCLA

Yes, Case McCoy and
Jaxon Shipley are roommates.

Remember last week when I (half) joked about Texas trying to seduce BYU into the Big 12 while the Cougars were in Austin? I wonder if Texas will head out to Los Angeles and start to wonder if this could be a place they’d be comfortable visiting regularly as Pac-16 members.

It wasn’t pretty, but Texas did escape with a win last week against BYU. The Longhorns’ quarterback situation is shaky to say the least. So is UCLA’s program. As questionable as the quarterback situation is in Austin, the defense has plenty of talent to shut down UCLA. The young Texas offense may struggle to score, but the good news is they won’t have to score very much.

The pick: Texas 20-14

The Ineligi-Bowl

#17 Ohio State at Miami (FL)

Plenty of funny names for this one: Ineligi-Bowl, The Benefits Bowl, The Replacements, whatever you want. Both of these proud programs are a mess right now and face a lot of uncertainty, almost as much uncertainty as I face with this pick. I’ve pretty much lost track of who’s playing and who isn’t. Jacory Harris returns for Miami, but I’ve never been a big believer in Harris. He’s athletic for sure. Put some pressure on the guy, though, and he’ll throw interceptions. He had four in last year’s loss in Columbus. I don’t think this is a good game for him to shake the rust off. I think Ohio State forces enough turnovers to escape Miami with the W.

The pick: Ohio State 27-24

Just getting started

#18 West Virginia at Maryland

Maryland has more fun
helmets to show the world.

The Dana Holgorsen era is off to a slow start despite the 2-0 record. The Mountaineers actually trailed Norfolk State at halftime last week before turning it around to blow out the Spartans 55-12. Perhaps that was the offense finally getting going?

With Maryland, it’s tough to evaluate the play on the field because I can’t get past those uniforms we saw in the opener. I’m anxious to see what the Terps bust out this week. Perhaps the turtle shell helmets will make an appearance? I hope so. Twitter blew up over the flag jerseys. Maybe Maryland is on to something. For better or for worse, people are talking about the program.

As for the game, Holgorsen is too good of an offensive coach to struggle for long. I think he got going last week, and it’ll pick up this week.

The pick: West Virginia 40-30

Now, do it on the road

#22 Arizona State at Illinois

Maybe the second-toughest call of the week behind OU-Florida State. I continue to be impressed with Arizona State quarterback Brock Osweiler, who had 353 yards and 3 touchdowns in an overtime win over previously ranked Missouri last week. Now, can the 6’8” gunslinger get a road win in Champaign?

It’s always tough for me to pick against fellow Rockhurst High School alum Nathan Scheelhaase, the Illinois quarterback. The sophomore is really coming into his own as a starter, and I’m sure he and his teammates are hungry for a statement win in the same way the Sun Devils were last week. This is a tough follow-up for Arizona State after a dramatic home win last week. I think Illinois wins a good one.

The pick: Illinois 31-28

Bluegrass Pillow Fight

Louisville at Kentucky

I normally pick one FCS game a week. This one might have the quality of an FCS game, if not a Division II game. Louisville got embarrassed on its home field last week by Florida International in a 24-17 loss. That game just a week after the Cards slipped past Murray State 21-9. Kentucky is currently 2-0, sporting a 14-3 win over Western Kentucky and a come-from-behind 27-13 win over Central Michigan. Neither one of these teams is very good, but Kentucky has a little bit more… I guess.

The pick: Kentucky 13-10

Big Sky Country

#10 Eastern Washington at #11 Montana

The defending FCS champions are 0-2 and are on the road for the third straight game this week, and another top FCS team awaits in Montana. Despite the rough start for the team with the ugliest turf in college football (maybe a reason why they've played on the road so much), I think Eastern Washington finally gets on the board this week.

The pick: Eastern Washington 30-27

Thanks for reading. Now, back to your realignment rumors and discussions.

A look into the future: telling my kids about the Big 12

This is about what a Big 12 meeting looks like these days.

How crazy is this Big 12 mess right now? Teams are trying to leave. There are rumors of others threatening to sue to keep teams in unless another team promises to stay. After that team stays then leaves, maybe the other schools will sue them, too. It’s hard to keep track of. Right now it seems like all the Big 12 schools are at each others’ throats. I imagine a meeting of the Big 12 presidents that looks a lot like the final scene of Reservoir Dogs. It’s an explosive situation that could go horribly wrong at any moment.

Growing up, we all swear we won’t be one of those people who talk about “the good ol’ days.” We don’t want to be constantly telling stories with the mixed messages of how things were much tougher when we were young, yet somehow everything was much better.

Unfortunately, I totally see myself heading down that road. I don’t have kids of my own. Maybe I will someday, and if/when I do, I’m going to sit them down and tell them stories about when college sports were much more enjoyable, when rivalries and tradition mattered. Let’s fast forward 20 or 25 years down the road and listen in.

Future Joe: Kids, back in my day, college football was a lot better.

Son: Did it have a playoff?

Future Joe: (sigh) No. But it did have rivalries.

Son: College teams have rivalries? I thought that was just for high schools and pros, like with the Yankees and Red Sox.

Future Joe: College teams used to have rivalries, too.

Daughter: Why don’t they anymore?

Future Joe: Well, it’s because there are only three football conferences with 40 teams each, so it’s impossible to play everyone, which is why they keep rotating every season.

Daughter: So, who were the best rivals?

Future Joe: Well, Texas and Oklahoma used to be a great one. They used to play every season at the Texas State Fair. The Cotton Bowl was split with crimson on one side and burnt orange on the other. It was quite a sight and an amazing game day atmosphere.

Son: So, TCU and SMU didn’t always play at the Texas State Fair?

Future Joe: No. See, Texas and Oklahoma used to be in a conference called the Big 12. It was great league with those two, Nebraska, Texas A&M, Oklahoma State, Kansas, Missouri, and others. They had some great games in all sports. And they all had their fun rivalries that the fans looked forward to.

Daughter: You mean Texas used to be in a conference? Was Notre Dame in it, too?

Future Joe: No, Notre Dame was always independent. Texas decided to go independent in 2011 after the Big 12 collapsed and nobody wanted to deal with Texas and its Longhorn Network.

Daughter: Didn’t that go off the air last year?

Future Joe: Yeah, ESPN signed a 20-year deal, and Texas held them to it. The whole Longhorn Network thing made Texas a lot of money, though. That’s why Texas A&M went to the SEC and ended its rivalry with Texas, which was also a great one. It was pretty even believe it or not.

Son: You mean Texas A&M used to be good at football? They finish middle of the road or worse in the SEC every year!

Future Joe: Yeah, I know. They thought they could compete in the SEC. It hasn’t worked out on the field, but they made their money away from it by joining the SEC. A long time ago, though, they were very competitive. Unfortunately, A&M and Texas haven’t played since 2011. And neither have OU and Texas.

Son: So, was College Station a more happening town back then?

Future Joe: No. It was the same as it is now... Honey, quit playing with your iPhone 41 or I’ll take it away and make you use my old iPhone 33.

Daughter: Sorry, Dad. Hey, did you like your Marquette Atlantic 20 championship shirt I got you for your birthday?

Future Joe: Yes, it’s great, thank you. It’s nice that Marquette has been able to win a few A-20 titles, but I just wish they could have won a few Big East titles before they got kicked out.

Son: What’s the Big East and why did Marquette get kicked out?

Future Joe: Well, the Big East was another conference that had some great basketball rivalries with Georgetown, Syracuse, and Connecticut. The conference was okay in football. When the Big 12 folded, the Big East took in Kansas, Kansas State, and Missouri and kicked out some schools that didn’t play football. Marquette then had to go join what was then known as the Atlantic 10. The Big East folded a few years later when half the teams went to the SEC and the rest went to the Big Ten.

Daughter: So, did the Big Ten ever only have ten teams instead of 40? That logo where the 10 fades back and forth to a 40 is weird.

Future Joe: Yes, a long time ago, the Big Ten had exactly ten teams, and the Pac-40 used to be the Pac-8. And there were also leagues called the Atlantic Coast Conference, Mountain West, and Conference USA and some others. They all folded when all football schools except Notre Dame and Texas joined the SEC, Big Ten, or Pac-40.

Son: So, with all those conferences, what was harder to decide: the BCS title or the Television Revenue Title?

Future Joe: You know what, that’s enough for today. You kids go teleport to your friends’ houses. I want to watch a little of the Pac-40 opener between Oklahoma and New Mexico.

College Football Picks: Week 2

Hypnotizing, right?

My picks last week were about as pretty as Maryland’s uniforms Monday night. Some people liked them, but overall they just were kinda tough to look at. A 6-4 effort isn’t terrible, but it was disappointing. I got burned by picking with my heart too much. My dad’s favorite team, my mom’s favorite team, and my brother’s favorite team all lost. 

Have I learned my lesson? Probably not. A lot of these teams are still tough to judge after one week. I see some crazy numbers in week one, and I wonder: was it a fluke? Was it simply a result of playing a lesser or greater opponent? Or was what I saw last week a sign of things to come? We'll find out I suppose. Unfortunately, I’ve never felt less confident about a week of picks. A lot of these could go either way. Here goes nothing.

The locals

Arizona at #9 Oklahoma State (Thursday)

The gray jerseys weren't bad, but I wasn't a fan of the
random dark patches. Anxious to see what's next.

It’s a rematch of the 2010 Alamo Bowl, a game that Oklahoma State won handily 36-10. OSU might be better now than they were then, but I’m not sure about Arizona.

The Wildcats are missing their top corner, Jonathan McKnight. OSU, on the other hand, comes in mostly healthy. The Cowboys’ defense looked sharp against Louisiana as the first string didn’t allow a touchdown. Their offense looked strong, too, despite three Brandon Weeden interceptions, two of which were taken back for touchdowns. The only downside may have been the underwhelming uniform combination. Did anyone else think the dark spots on the gray jerseys were sweat stains? But, I suppose you don’t want to bust out your favorite uniform combo for Louisiana-Lafayette, do you?

It’s a short week for Oklahoma State, but it’s a short week for Arizona, too, and the Wildcats are on the road. OSU has more talent. Even though Nick Foles is a great QB for Arizona, I don’t see Weeden throwing three interceptions in consecutive weeks. OSU should be just fine on Thursday.

The pick: OSU 38-20

Bonus OSU uniform prediction: gray helmets, black jerseys, gray pants. They’ll look like the Raiders with a splash of orange.

Tulsa at Tulane

Tulsa looked like the NFC Pro Bowl team last week. I’m talking about their uniforms, not how they played. Kidding aside, TU gave its best effort, but was completely outmatched against the top-ranked Sooners last week. Now, they’re used to the fact they don’t have Damaris Johnson, and they’re taking on a Tulane team that defeated FCS foe Southeastern Louisiana 47-33. I think G.J. Kinne will lead TU to more points than Southeastern scored against the Green Wave. This week should be a good confidence builder for Tulsa.

The pick: Tulsa 40-24

Dancing with the (Sun) Devils

#21 Missouri at Arizona State (Friday)

Arizona State dominated UC-Davis 48-14 last week. I won’t give the Sun Devils too much credit for blowing out an FCS team, but I will give them credit for taking care of business and executing well. ASU had over 500 yards of offense and didn’t allow a touchdown until they called off the dogs in the fourth quarter.

Missouri, meanwhile, didn’t exactly look crisp in a 17-6 win over Miami (OH), but the Redhawks were a 10-win team a year ago. As for this week, going on the road at night is a tall task. Weak opponent or not, ASU was clicking last week. Tough trip for Mizzou.

The pick: Arizona State 24-21

Bring your ponchos

Notre Dame at Michigan

For whatever reason, Notre Dame just
plays better when Rees is under center.

Both of these schools had weather delays last week. Michigan saw its game called early. Notre Dame probably should have. Maybe the skies opened up in South Bend because someone upstairs couldn’t watch another moment. 500 yards of offense? That’s good. Five turnovers, many of them in the red zone? That’s how you lose games. Notre Dame came in with high expectations, but sloppy play has them searching for respect. The Irish hope that replacing underachieving quarterback Dayne Crist for the less athletic yet more poised Tommy Rees will fix the offense. Michigan wasn’t expected to be great this year as Denard Robinson learns a new offense, but the Wolverine QB had a field day against the Irish last season. Brady Hoke should probably just turn him loose. Against my better judgment, I’ll give Brian Kelly the benefit of the doubt and say he cleans up the mistakes this week.

The pick: Notre Dame 30-27

The game away from the game

BYU at Texas

I wonder what the conversations among the athletic directors and presidents will be like during this one. I bet they won’t be talking much about the action on the field. Will Texas AD DeLoss Dodds be trying to convince BYU AD Tom Holmoe that the Big 12 is the place to be, or will he be asking him about the future of playing as an independent? Or will they both be talking about how awesome it is to have television deals with ESPN? As for the game itself, Texas ran the ball pretty well last week. Granted, that was against Rice, but the 506 yards of offense were still encouraging. BYU played well as the Cougars rallied to get a tough win at Ole Miss. I think Texas is just a little better, however, and the ‘Horns are at home.

The pick: Texas 27-21

The only showdown of two ranked teams

#3 Alabama at #23 Penn State

Yeah, they’re both ranked, but I think the gap in talent is pretty significant. Alabama just has to avoid the early haymaker (kick return for TD, pick six, long offensive TD of some sort) that gets the crowd into it. If they can do that, their defense should keep Penn State in check and Trent Richardson should have a big game.

The pick: Alabama 31-17

Shot at redemption

#12 South Carolina at Georgia

Georgia dropping out of the Top 25 after losing to Boise State seems a bit harsh to me, but it’s early and the Dawgs have a chance to get right back in this week. This is a really important game for Georgia because its SEC slate does NOT have Alabama, LSU, or Arkansas. Translation: win this game, and the Bulldogs' biggest obstacle to the SEC title game is Florida. It’s not that easy, though. Mark Richt’s seat is getting really hot, and many are wondering if he’s lost this team.

South Carolina trailed early last week against East Carolina, but ended up blowing out ECU 56-37. The Gamecocks can really score, but they can’t afford to start slow in Athens.

Two things: First, it’s tough winning on the road anywhere in college football, but especially in the SEC. Second, Georgia is at a tipping point as fans are really starting to scream for Richt’s head, and I wonder if that affects the team’s confidence.

It’s tough to pick a team with internal turmoil, but it’s also tough to pick against Georgia at home, as long as they ditch those all-red jerseys. South Carolina is a three-point favorite. I'll take the home 'dog.

The pick: Georgia 27-24

Welcome to the Pac-12

Utah at USC

As much as we’d like to talk down about USC’s unimpressive 19-17 win over Minnesota, Utah didn’t exactly blow away Montana State last week with a 27-10 victory. USC might not be as strong as it was under Pete Carroll, but the Trojans will be stronger than Utah in this game, Utah’s first Pac-12 conference tilt.

The pick: USC 35-24

Changing of the Guard?

#16 Mississippi State at Auburn

Auburn escaped last week against Utah State, but the Tigers are definitely missing all the NFL talent they had a year ago. Mississippi State, meanwhile, is on the rise. Vick Ballard was very impressive against lowly Memphis, as he rushed for 166 yards on just 10 carries. Mississippi State will march into Jordan-Hare Stadium and end the Tigers’ 16-game winning streak.

The pick: Mississippi State 30-21

Token FCS Game of the Week

#4 Northern Iowa at #16 Stephen F. Austin

Northern Iowa almost upset in-state FBS foe Iowa State last week, as the Panthers fell 20-19 in Ames. SFA, meanwhile, scored 82 points last week… against McMurry. Yeah, I don’t know where McMurry is either. UNI gets on the board with a big road win.

The pick: Northern Iowa 34-30

Here’s to hoping for a week with more exciting games and less crazy uniforms… and a few more wins for myself.

Could super conferences get too big?

Cuban is against
super conferences.

You can have too much of a good thing. Mark Cuban made some great points this week with his blog against the idea of super conferences. I agree with him on a lot of points.

How big is too big? I get that super conferences will get some sweet television contracts, but if all of that money is split among 16 or 20 teams, doesn't everyone get a smaller share? How big can a television contract be?

I'm also anxious to see how the travel issue plays out. When you take away the regional rivalry games, fans are less likely to travel to the away games. Some OU fans may make the trip to see a marquee game like USC or Oregon, but are fans in Norman going to make it all the way to Corvallis, OR, or Pullman, WA? Probably not many. Conversely, they may make a trip to Ames, IA, to see Iowa State even though it's not a great game, but it's at least driving distance.

Possible Pac-16 West                           Possible Pac-16 East
USC                                                        Oklahoma
UCLA                                                       Oklahoma State
Oregon                                                    Texas
Oregon State                                           Texas Tech
Washington                                             Colorado
Washington State                                    Utah
California                                                 Arizona
Stanford                                                   Arizona State

Sure, USC and OU will be in the same conference,
but how often will they actually play each other?

The other issue is the scheduling. In football, you can't play everyone in a 16-team league. I'm assuming that a team will just play seven games within its own division then two games with teams from the other? So, for Texas and Oklahoma, they'll be in a conference with Oregon and USC, but hardly ever play them. Maybe they'll see the Trojans once every two or three years? That would mean USC actually visits Norman or Austin every four years or so.

Like most people do, we're only thinking about football here. What about other sports? Yesterday, I was imagining a Big East basketball slate with 20 teams. Let's image that the Big East adds the orphaned Kansas, Kansas State, and Missouri after the Big 12 collapses. How do you make a 20-team basketball schedule? Do you just make a 19-game slate in which everybody plays everyone once? Syracuse and Georgetown fans are already upset that they no longer have a home-and-home. Imagine how Kansas and Missouri fans would feel about that. Do you expand to a 20-game slate with one home-and-home with a "rival?" Do you divide it into divisions with home-and-homes within your division? Then you'd never see some teams from the other side. A lot of schools would balk at the idea of being in the Big East but not getting to showcase their programs in east coast markets.

Here's a crazier idea: divide the Big East into four divisions. I don't have clever names yet like Leaders and Legends, and I don't see a way to balance the talent evenly while preserving rivalries, but here's my best shot:

Imagine a 20-team Big East basketball slate.
Kansas and Missouri still have to play twice, right?

Hypothetical Big East Division 1
Georgetown
Syracuse
Connecticut
Pittsburgh
West Virginia

Hypothetical Big East Division 2
Villanova
St. John's
Rutgers
Seton Hall
Providence

Hypothetical Big East Division 3
Cincinnati
Louisville
Marquette
Notre Dame
DePaul

Hypothetical Big East Division 4
Kansas
Kansas State
Missouri
TCU
South Florida

Wow. That's a mess, but you could play home-and-homes with every team in your division and maybe play three teams from every other division. That's 17 conference games. I know it's unbalanced (Division 1 is loaded), and I know a Kansas State home-and-home with South Florida doesn't excite anybody, but that's the best I can do.

Of course, I'm really just hiding my bigger fear: The Big East could kick out non-football schools like my alma mater, Marquette, as well as DePaul, Seton Hall, and Providence. I would guess the Big East would keep high profile non-football schools in large markets like Georgetown and St. John's. Then the Big East would be back to a manageable 16 teams. I hope that doesn't happen, but I realize it's possible.

My point (and Mark Cuban's): huge super conferences create issues with schedules that fans and coaches will hate. I would love it if somehow the Big 12 could be preserved and maybe bring in some teams like TCU, SMU, and Houston, but I know I'm fighting an uphill battle there.

I guess we'll just have to sit back and watch the experiment take place and raise more complaints as it goes along. You know, kind of like we do with the BCS: presidents and television executives like it, fans and coaches hate it, but it's the way of the world.